Peace and Security in the Postmodern World: The OSCE and Conflict Resolution (Routledge Studies in Peace and Conflict Resolution)

287 Pages·2007·1.29 MB·English

Sandol-FM.qxd 25/11/06 2:39 PM Page i
Peace and Security in the
Postmodern World
Comprising interviews conducted with senior CSCE/OSCE negotiators
about recent tumultuous events in global affairs and insights from the
conflict resolution literature, this book analyses how “postmodern” conflict
such as the recent Balkan wars and the post–9/11 “new terrorism” can be
prevented and/or otherwise dealt with in the future.
Using a conceptual framework designed to enhance analysis of complex
identity-based conflicts, the author has developed a model for a new European
peace and security system (NEPSS), and assessed the “goodness-of-fit”
between NEPSS and the perceptions of CSCE/OSCE practitioners at four
points in time, to explore whether there was a convergence of theory and
practice on how to prevent and/or respond to future Yugoslav-type conflicts
and related acts of terrorism.
The author also examines to what extent consensus existed on the various
issues over time and analyses pre–9/11 (1993, 1997, 1999) and post–9/11
(2004) trends on various peace and security issues to discern to what extent
there has developed over time a culture of conflict resolution and an “issue
paradigm,” in which senior diplomatic practitioners come down on various
issues in complex ways that are not neatly captured by a Realpolitik-only or
Idealpolitik-only perspective.
This book will be of much interest to students of conflict resolution,
peace studies, international security, and international organizations.
Dennis J.D. Sandole is Professor of conflict resolution and international
relations at the Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution (ICAR) at
George Mason University. Among his publications is Capturing the
Complexity of Conflict: Dealing with Violent Ethnic Conflicts of the
Post–Cold War Era (1999).
Sandol-FM.qxd 25/11/06 2:39 PM Page ii
Routledge Studies in Peace and Conflict Resolution
General editors:Tom Woodhouse and Oliver Ramsbotham
The centre for conflict resolution
Department of peace studies
University of Bradford, England
Peace and Security in the Postmodern World:
The OSCE and conflict resolution
Dennis J.D.Sandole
Forthcoming titles
Peace and International Relations
A new agenda
Oliver Richmond
Memory and Conflict Resolution
Rhys Kelly
Sandol-FM.qxd 25/11/06 2:39 PM Page iii
Peace and Security in the
Postmodern World
The OSCE and conflict resolution
Dennis J.D. Sandole
Sandol-FM.qxd 25/11/06 2:39 PM Page iv
First published 2007
by Routledge
2 Park Square,Milton Park,Abingdon,Oxon OX14 4RN
Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada
by Routledge
270 Madison Ave,New York,NY 10016
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group,
an informa business
This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2006.
“To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s
collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.”
© 2007 Dennis J.D.Sandole
All right reserved.No part of this book may be reprinted or
reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic,
mechanical,or other means,now known or hereafter
invented,including photocopying and recording,or in any
information storage or retrieval system,without permission in
writing from the publishers.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available
from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
A catalog record for this book has been requested
ISBN0-203-96644-9 Mastere-bookISBN
ISBN10:0–415–40077–5 (hbk)
ISBN10:0–203–96644–9 (ebk)
ISBN13:978–0–415–40077–0 (hbk)
ISBN13:978–0–203–96644–0 (ebk)
Sandol-FM.qxd 25/11/06 2:39 PM Page v
This book is dedicated to the women and men of the OSCE
Sandol-FM.qxd 25/11/06 2:39 PM Page vi
Sandol-FM.qxd 25/11/06 2:39 PM Page vii
Contents
List of tables ix
Foreword xiii
Preface xvii
Acknowledgments xxi
List of abbreviations xxiii
1 Violent postmodern conflict: a need to go beyond
symptoms 1
2 A framework for analyzing violent postmodern conflict 23
3 A model for responding to violent postmodern conflict 45
4 Eliciting the wisdom of CSCE/OSCE negotiators:
research design 65
5 CSCE/OSCE negotiators’ perceptions of select peace
and security issues 81
6 CSCE/OSCE negotiators’ perceptions of causes of the
Balkan wars of the 1990s 95
7 CSCE/OSCE negotiators’ perceptions of lessons
learned from the Balkan wars of the 1990s 111
8 CSCE/OSCE negotiators’ visions of ideal peace and
security in postmodern Europe 128
Sandol-FM.qxd 25/11/06 2:39 PM Page viii
viii Contents
9 After 9/11: peace and security issues revisited 145
10 A work in progress: implications of findings for
research, theory, and policy 169
Appendix A: research designs for 1993, 1997,
and 1999 191
Appendix B: the 15 closed-ended questions and
data specific to each: individual means,
“grand means” and standard deviations 197
Notes 203
Bibliography 218
Index 247
Sandol-FM.qxd 25/11/06 2:39 PM Page ix
Tables
1.1 Domestic as a proportion of total major armed
conflicts worldwide, 1986–91 5
2.1 A “mixed motive game” 24
2.2 A comprehensive mapping of conflict and conflict
resolution: a three pillar approach 28
2.3 A party typology of conflict 29
5.1 Grand means and standard deviations for questions
1–15 for 1993, 1997, 1999 83
5.2 Magnitudes of grand means 84
5.3 Increases and decreases in grand means across
the three time periods 86
5.4 NATO–FSU polarity vs. “togetherness” 91
6.1 Comparisons across the five groupings for 1993:
common and dissimilar themes on the “causes of
FYug wars” 97
6.2 Comparisons across the five groupings and OSCE
secretariat for 1997: common and dissimilar
themes on the “causes of FYug wars” 100
6.3 Comparisons across the five groupings and Albania
for 1999: common and dissimilar themes on the
“causes of FYug wars” 100
6.4 The views of senior CSCE/OSCE representatives on
the causes and conditions of the Yugoslav wars,
1993, 1997, and 1999 102
6.5 Establishing an Islamic state in Europe as a cause
of the Yugoslav wars: 1997 105
6.6 Establishing an Islamic state in Europe as a cause
of the Yugoslav wars: 1999 105
6.7 Perceived causes of the Balkan wars of the 1990s 106
6.8 A “clash of civilizations”? 106
7.1 Comparisons across the five groupings for 1993:
common/dissimilar themes on the “lessons of Yugoslavia” 113