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Overreach Overreach How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise Susan L. Shirk Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries. Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America. © Susan L. Shirk 2023 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above. You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer. CIP data is on file at the Library of Congress ISBN 978– 0– 19– 006851– 6 DOI: 10.1093/ oso/ 9780190068516.001.0001 1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Printed by Sheridan Books, Inc., United States of America To my Chinese friends and colleagues who helped me understand their country. Contents Acknowledgments ix Map xii Prologue: How China Lost the West 1 1 The Origins of Overreach 14 2 Deng’s Ghost 31 3 Inside the Black Box 55 4 The Rise and Fall of Collective Leadership 81 5 Loss of Restraint 119 6 Stability Maintenance 156 7 Strongman Rule 178 8 Going to Extremes 207 9 State of Paranoia 241 10 Downward Spiral 270 Conclusion: Overreach and Overreaction 291 viii Contents Organization Chart 319 Organizations 321 Notes 329 Index 395 Acknowledgments Ib egan this book in 2008 as an investigation into puzzling changes in Chinese foreign policy. I originally planned to update China: Fragile Superpower, but Fragile Superpower morphed into Overreach. Conversations with my wonderful colleagues in the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy and the Political Science Department— Stephan Haggard, Weiyi Shi, Barry Naughton, Peter Cowhey, Victor Shih, Tai Ming Cheung, Ruixue Jia, Molly Roberts, Yiqing Yu, Eddy Malesky, and David Lake—h elped stimulate my thinking. I am especially grateful to Lei Guang, the executive director of the UC San Diego 21st Century China Center, whose partnership has been invaluable at every step of the way both with the book and the center’s development. I learned as much from the talented hard-w orking graduate students who were my research assistants on this book project, Adam Wu, Yin Yuan, Jiying Jiang, Jason Wu, and Yuanhao Liu as they did from me. The participants in the 21st Century China Center’s 2016 conference on the Evolution of Communist Political Institutions contributed greatly to the evolution of my ideas. Alice Lyman Miller was a patient collaborator as we worked together on the PRC’s political institutionalization, and Jack Snyder’s writings and personal encouragement provided valuable guidance. Orville Schell has been a great partner as co-c hair of the UC San Diego – Asia Society Task Force on US Policy Toward China since 2015. The thoughtful and well- informed debates among the Task Force members have shaped my views on American policy toward China. Thank you to the individuals and foundations (Carnegie Corporation and Luce) who by generously contributing to the 21st Century China Center have thereby helped me write this book.