Out of (South) Africa : Pretoria's nuclear weapons experience

62 Pages·1999·1.5 MB·English

by  Horton, Roy E

OUTOF(SOUTH)AFRICA:
PRETORIA'SNUCLEAR
WEAPONSEXPERIENCE
RoyE.Horton,III
INSSOccasionalPaper27
CounterproliferationSeries
August1999
USAFInstituteforNationalSecurityStudies
USAFAcademy,Colorado
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Theviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorsanddonot
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TABLEOFCONTENTS
Foreword vii
ExecutiveSximmary ix
Introduction 1
TheProgramBegins 3
TheKeyPlayersBehindtheProgram 18
ANuclearProgramisDismantled 28
LessonsLearnedandFutureU.S.PolicyImplications 33
Biblography ' 38
Endnotes 42
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FOREWORD
Wearepleasedtopublishthistwenty-seventhvolumeinthe
OccasionalPaperseriesoftheUSAirForceInstituteforNational
SecurityStudies(INSS). Init.LieutenantColonelHortonpresentsthe
casestudyoftheSouthAfricannuclearprogram,andspecificallytheir
decisionto"rollback'"nuclearproductionandabandon"thebomb."In
thiseraofgreatlyheightenedproliferationconcerns,thisisaparticularly
illustrativecase. Ithighlightsthedistinctlynationalfactors,founded
aroundtheregionalsecurityperceptionsandmoreglobalrecognition
goalsofthecorenationalleadership,thatledtotheSouthAfrican
reversalofitsnuclearproliferation.UnitedStatespersonneldealingwith
counterproliferationpolicyandprograms,andwiththeirimplementation,
cangainvaluableinsightfromexaminingthisfirstsuccessfulcaseof
nuclearrollback.
AbouttheInstitute
INSSisprimarilysponsoredbytheNationalSecurityPolicy
Division,NuclearandCounterproliferationDirectorate,HeadquartersUS
AirForce(HQUSAF/XONP)andtheDeanoftheFaculty,USAF
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DefenseSpecialWeaponsAgencyandtheOn-SiteInspectionAgency);
theArmyEnvironmentalPolicyInstitute;thePlansDirectorateofthe
UnitedStatesSpaceCommand;andtheAirForcelong-rangeplans
directorate(XPXP). ThemissionoftheInstituteis"topromotenational
securityresearchfortheDepartmentofDefensewithinthemilitary
academiccommunity,andtosupporttheAirForcenationalsecurih'
educationprogram."Itsresearchfocusesontheareasofgreatestinterest
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toourorganizationalsponsors:armscontrol,proliferation,regional
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JAMESM.SMITH
Director
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EXECUTIVESUMMARY
TheUnitedStatesidentifiestheproHferationofweaponsofmass
destruction,particularlynuclearweapons,asthegreatestpotentialthreat
toglobalsecurityinthepost-ColdWarera.Despiteaconsiderable
emphasismthisarea,onlySouthAfricahasvoluntarilyrolledbackits
nuclearweaponscapability.Unfortunately,SouthAfrica'sactions
apparentlycameinspiteofUSnonproliferationmeasures. "Nuclear
rollback"occurswhenanationeliminatesitsnuclearweapons,
relinquishesatleastsomeofthetechnicalmeanstoacquirenuclear
weapons,and/oracceptsacontrolregimetopreventitfromgoing
nuclear.
TheprimaryfocusofthepaperistheimpactofkeySouth
Africanleadersonthesuccessfuldevelopmentandsubsequentrollback
ofSouthAfrica'snuclearweaponscapability.Ithighlightstheimportant
milestonesinthedevelopmentofSouthAfrica'snuclearweapon
capability. ItalsorelateshowdifferentgroupswithinSouthAfrica
(scientists,politicians,militaryandtechnocrats)interactedto
successfullyproduceSouthAfrica'snucleardeterrent. Itemphasizesthe
pivotalinfluenceoftheseniorpoliticalleadershiptopursuenuclear
rollbackgiventhedisadvantagesofitsnuclearmeanstoachievevital
nationalinterests.
TheconclusionsdrawnfromthiseffortaretheSouthAfrican
nuclearprogramwasanextremeresponsetoitsown"identitycrisis."
Nuclearweaponsbecameameanstoachievingalong-termendofa
closeraffiliationwiththeWest.ASouthAfricayearningtobeidentified
— —
asaWesternnation andreceiveguaranteesofitssecurity rationalized
theneedforanucleardeterrent. Thedeterrentwasintendedtodrawin
Westernsupporttocounterafeared"totalonslaught"byCommunist
forcesmtheregion. Twodecadeslater,thatsameSouthAfrica
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relinquisheditsnucleardeterrentandreformeditsdomesticpoliciesto
secureimprovedeconomicandpoliticalintegrationwiththeWest.
Severalrecommendationsareofferedforcriticalreviewofthe
aboveissuestoincludetheneedforgreaterinternationaldialogueand
constructiveengagementwiththresholdnationssuchasIndiaand
Pakistan.Nonproliferationregimescanbeusedtopromotemutual
verification,transparency,andtheresolutionofmutualsecurity
concerns. Morethananything,policymakersmustbepreparedtoassist
thresholdnuclearstatesinresolvingtheircoreregionalsecurityconcerns
iftheywishtoencouragestatestopursuenuclearrollback.
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