Order without Design: How Markets Shape Cities

470 Pages·2016·23.08 MB·English

by  Alain Bertaud

Order without Design
How Markets Shape Cities
Alain Bertaud
The MIT Press
Cambridge, Massachusetts
London, England
© 2018 Alain Bertaud
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical
means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in
writing from the publisher.
This book was set in Palatino by Westchester Publishing Services. Printed and bound in the United States of
America.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Bertaud, Alain, author.
Title: Order without design : how markets shape cities / Alain Bertaud.
Description: Cambridge, MA : MIT Press, [2018] | Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2018008743 | ISBN 9780262038768 (hardcover : alk. paper)
Subjects: LCSH: Urban economics. | City planning.
Classification: LCC HT321 .B478 2018 | DDC 330.9173/2--dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018008743
To my wife, Marie-Agnes Roy Bertaud
Contents Acknowledgments
1      Economists and Urban Planners: Two Visions of Cities That Need to
Be Merged
2      Cities as Labor Markets
3      Formation of Urban Spatial Structures: Markets versus Design
4      Spatial Distribution of Land Prices and Densities: Models Developed
by Economists
5      Mobility: Transport Is a Real Estate Issue—The Design of Urban
Roads and Transport Systems
6      Affordability: Household Incomes, Regulations, and Land Supply
7      Alternative Urban Shapes and Utopias
8      Urban Planners and Urban Economists Have an Important Role to
Play If They Manage to Work Together
Index
List of Figures
Figure 2.1 Distribution of commuting times in US cities, Paris, and in Gauteng, South Africa. Sources:
United States: US Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey, tables S0802 and B08303; South
Africa: Statistics South Africa, Department of Transport Gauteng Households Travel Survey, figure 3.10,
Pretoria, South Africa, 2009; Paris: Direction des statistiques démographiques et sociales, “Enquête
nationale transport et déplacements 2007–2008,” Institut national de la statistique et des études
économiques, Paris, 2011.
Figure 2.2 Distribution of workers’ residences and job locations in a hypothetical linear city.
Figure 2.3 Labor market type, speed of travel, and job location.
Figure 2.4 Average number of jobs accessible to workers in various US cities, 2010.
The labor market shapes the pattern of commuting trips. Source: David Levinson, “Access across
America,” Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 2013.
Figure 2.5 Model trip patterns in metropolitan areas.
Figure 2.6 Trip patterns in metropolitan Paris. Sources: “Les déplacements des Franciliens en 2001–2002,”
Direction regionale de l’equipement d’Île-de-France, 2005, Paris Cedex 15; built-up area, digitization of
satellite imagery by Marie-Agnes Bertaud.
Figure 2.7 Changes in population and job distributions over time, Seoul metropolitan area. Sources:
Population and job data: Seoul Metropolitan Government Statistical Unit, Census 2000, 2010; built-up
areas and densities: GIS analysis by Marie-Agnes Bertaud.
Figure 3.1 Vacant cotton mills in Mumbai, 1990.
Figure 3.2 Street patterns in New York (Wall Street area) and in Paris (Marais).
Figure 3.3 Plan of Miletus, sixth century B.C. Source: Illustration by A. V. Gerkan and B. F. Weber, 1999,
in The Archaeology of Byzantine Anatolia: From the End of Late Antiquity until the Coming of the Turks,
ed. Philipp Niewöhner (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017).
Figure 3.4 The author, with his two assistants, tracing new streets in Yemen, 1970.
Figure 3.5 Le Corbusier’s Plan Voisin for Paris. Sources: Paris built-up background map:
OpenStreetMap®; Plan Voisin: three-dimensional model by author based on plans and drawings from the
“Fondation Le Corbusier” website and from Le Corbusier, The City of Tomorrow and Its Planning (New
York: Dover Publications, Inc., 1987).
Figure 3.6 Application of the sun rule—footprint of danwei housing in Beijing, Ningbo, and Guangzhou.
Figure 3.7 Distance between buildings in China, determined by the angle of the sun on the winter solstice.
Figure 3.8 The design of buildings in a block in Chandigarh (left) and Brasília (right). Sources:
Topographical maps with built-up areas from Department of Urban Planning Chandigarh Administration,
2005, updated with the help of Google Earth satellite imagery, 2008.
Figure 3.9 Pudong: Shanghai’s new financial center.
Figure 3.10 The design and construction of roads and subway links to Pudong, 1992 and 2013.
Figure 3.11 Relationship between population, land, and floor space consumption. It is assumed that prices
are set by market supply, and demand/supply are constrained by topography and other variables.
Figure 4.1 Profile of land price versus distance from city center.
Figure 4.2 Calculation of the density gradient using a regression based on observed densities in a real city.
Figure 4.3 Profile of densities in 12 metropolises.
Figure 4.4 Profile of land prices in Paris, 1990.
Figure 4.5 Density profile of Los Angeles. Sources: Population: US Census data, 2000; built-up area:
interpretation and vectorization of satellite imagery by Marie-Agnes Bertaud.
Figure 4.6 Schematic representation of access to the labor market in a city with a uniform distribution of
job locations.
Figure 4.7 Moscow population density profile, 1989. Sources: 1989 All-Union Census data, State
Committee for Statistics Moscow, 1990; vectorization of satellite imagery by author.
Figure 4.8 Change over time in the density gradients in Tianjin (1988 and 2000) and Paris (1990 and
2006). Sources: Tianjin Population Census and Survey data, Tianjin Statistical Yearbook, Tianjin; Paris
Population 1990 National Census, population 2006 estimate by Institut National de la Statistique et des
Études Économiques, Paris; vectorization of satellite data by Marie-Agnes Roy Bertaud.
Figure 4.9 Sale price and rents of very small apartments in Paris, 2014.
Figure 4.10 Price of urban land and agricultural land define the limit of urbanization.
Figure 4.11 Limit of urbanization when agricultural land prices are distorted.
Figure 4.12 Built-up area and premier cru vineyards, Beaune.
Figure 4.13 Profile of urban and agricultural land prices along the AB axis, Beaune.
Figure 4.14 Limit of urbanization, taking into account the cost of land development.
Figure 4.15 Existing villages east of the immediate expansion area of Luoyang, China. Source:
Vectorization of Google Earth Images, 2015; population estimates based on village surveys.
Figure 4.16 Informal subdivision at the fringe of urbanization in Mexico City (left image) and Surabaya,
Indonesia (right image; same scale for both images).
Figure 4.17 Hanoi existing land use in 2010 and Hanoi’s capital master plan for 2030.
Figure 5.1 Mode share work at home versus public transport in some US cities. Source: Wendell Cox,
NewGeography, May 30, 2015.
Figure 5.2 Accessibility of a suburban location in Buenos Aires by public transport and by car. Source:
Wb.BA.analyst.conveyal.com.
Figure 5.3 Modes of urban transport.
Figure 5.4 Changes in the dominant transport mode, Beijing (left) and Hanoi (right). Source: Beijing
Transport Research Center, 2015.
Figure 5.5 Changes in the dominant transport mode, Mexico City (left) and Paris (right). Sources: Mexico
City: “Gradual Takeover of Public Mass-Transit by Colectivos, 1986–2000,” Secretaria de Transito y
Viabilidad (SETRAVI) Embarq—World Resources Institute; Paris: Syndicat des Transports d’Île-de-
France website, www.stif.info.
Figure 5.6 Average door-to-door public transport travel time for commuters in the Paris municipality and
Beijing metropolitan area. Sources: Data for Paris: “Etude sur les deplacements,” Regie Autonome des
Transports Parisiens, 2014; Beijing: “Beijing, the 4th Comprehensive Transport Survey Summary Report,”
Beijing Transportation Research Center (BTRC), Beijing Municipal Commission of Transport, Beijing,
China, 2012.
Figure 5.7 Door-to-door commuting time from suburb to downtown New York (case study, no statistical
significance).
Figure 5.8 Extreme commuting in Gauteng (South Africa) case study. Source: “National Development Plan
Vision 2030,” President’s National Planning Commission, South Africa, 2011.
Figure 5.9 Average commuting travel time by transport mode, Singapore, Hong Kong, Dallas–Fort Worth,
Paris, and New York. Sources: Data for United States: “Commuting in America 2013,” US DOT Census
Transportation Planning Products Program, Washington, DC, 2013; Paris: “Les deplacements des
Franciliens en 2001–2002,” Direction régionale de l’équipement d’Île-de-France, Paris, 2004; Hong Kong:
“Travel Characteristics Survey-Final Report 2011,” Transport Department, Government of Hong Kong
Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, 2011; Singapore: “Singapore Land Transport Statistics in
Brief 2010,” Land Transport Authority, Singapore Government, Singapore, 2010.
Figure 5.10 Peak hour congestion in the Beijing metro network, 2014. Source: “Beijing the 4th
Comprehensive Transport Survey Summary Report,” Beijing Transportation Research Center (BTRC),
Beijing Municipal Commission of Transport, Beijing, China, 2015.
Figure 5.11 Road area per person or per job in various neighborhoods.
Figure 5.12 Street area requirements for cars running at different speeds with 2-second reaction time.
Figure 5.13 Speed versus vehicle density (left) and lane capacity (right) for cars.
Figure 5.14 Speed versus lane capacity for buses and cars along M1 corridor in Manhattan.
Figure 5.15 Speed versus lane capacity for various transport modes along M1 corridor in Manhattan.
Figure 5.16 Map of a typical station and right-of-way for the Curitiba BRT (Eixo Sul line).
Figure 5.17 BRT use of road space per passenger when headways vary. Dashed horizontal line indicates
the road area per passenger for a car moving at 30 km/h with a headway of 2 seconds.
Figure 5.18 Transport system speed and capacity versus speed, BRT and Metro. Sources: BRT data are
from Walter Hook, “Bus Rapid Transit: An International View,” Institute for Development & Transport
Policy, New York, 2008; “Mass Transit Railway: Business Overview, Operations and Services,”
www.MTR.com.HK, Hong Kong, 2014.
Figure 5.19 Evolution of vehicular speeds at peak hours, Singapore. Source: Data are from “Singapore
Land Transport Statistics, 2005–2014,” Land Transport Authority, Singapore, 2015.
Figure 5.20 Changes in gasoline-car pollutant emissions in Germany, 1990–2013. Sources: Table 2: Fuel-
specific IEF for passenger cars, in Fkg/TJ, Ministry of the Environment, Federal Environment Agency
(Umweltbundesamt, UBA), Dessau-Roßlau, Germany.
Figure 5.21 Average mandatory CO -e emission standards in various countries, 2000–2020. Sources: Data
2
for Europe, Korea, and Japan: “Monitoring CO Emissions from New Passenger Cars and Vans in 2015,”
2
EEA Report No 27/2016, European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Publications Office of the
European Union, Luxemburg, 2016; United States: “Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission
Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards; Final Rule,” U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) and the Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
(NHTSA), Federal Register, Vol. 75, No. 88, May 7, 2010, Rules and Regulations.
Figure 5.22 Emissions of CO -e per kilowatt-hour for the electrical grids of selected countries. Sources:
2
United States: United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2018, eGRID Summary Tables 2016,
https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-02/documents/egrid2016_summarytables.pdf; Europe:
Alberto Moro and Laura Lonza, “Electricity Carbon Intensity in European Member States: Impacts on
GHG Emissions of Electric Vehicles,” Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment,
Elsevier, July 2017, https://ac.els-cdn.com/S1361920916307933/1-s2.0-S1361920916307933-main.pdf?
_tid=60efef4a-0c3a-4e20-a91b-
04dfdd346516&acdnat=1523304207_75045ee3d86fb842b4de3ff23f425ce0.
Figure 5.23 Tailpipe emissions of CO per passenger-kilometer for various cars and public transport
2
modes, 2015. Sources: United States: United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2018, eGRID
Summary Tables 2016, https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-
02/documents/egrid2016_summarytables.pdf; Europe: Alberto Moro and Laura Lonza, “Electricity Carbon
Intensity in European Member States: Impacts on GHG Emissions of Electric Vehicles,” Transportation
Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Elsevier, July 2017, https://ac.els-
cdn.com/S1361920916307933/1-s2.0-S1361920916307933-main.pdf?_tid=60efef4a-0c3a-4e20-a91b-
04dfdd346516&acdnat=1523304207_75045ee3d86fb842b4de3ff23f425ce0; and various car manufacturers,
2016.
Figure 5.24 Changes in energy use per passenger-kilometer for different modes of transport, 1970–2012.
Source: US Department of Energy, Transportation Energy Data Book, 33rd ed., Washington, DC, 2014.
Figure 5.25 Urban trip patterns in a typical metropolitan area compared to that of an urban cluster.
Figure 5.26 Comparison of the catchment area of traditional subways and that of high-speed suburban rail
associated with individual urban vehicles.
Figure 5.27 The Toyota i-Road personal mobility vehicle (left) and the Beijing three-wheeler (right)
already provide on-demand trips from station to door and from door to station.
Figure 6.1 Price/income ratios for a selection of world cities, 2015. Source: Wendell Cox and Hugh
Pavletich, 12th Annual Housing Affordability Survey (Belleville, IL: Demographia, 2016).
Figure 6.2 Price/income ratios and affordability for 10 selected cities. Source: Wendell Cox and Hugh
Pavletich, 12th Annual Housing Affordability Survey (Belleville, IL: Demographia, 2016).
Figure 6.3 Percentage of renting households’ income spent on rent and the price/income ratios of
homeowners for 10 selected cities, 2015. Sources: Price/income ratio data: Wendell Cox and Hugh
Pavletich, 12th Annual Housing Affordability Survey (Belleville, IL: Demographia, 2016); Rental
household income data: American Community Survey, Furman Center, New York University, New York.
Figure 6.4 Poster advertising a room to rent in a subdivided apartment in a suburb of Beijing, 2013.
Figure 6.5 Share of young people aged 25–34 living with their parents in Europe and in the United States,
2010. Source: Pew Research Center, Washington, DC.
Figure 6.6 New York City minimum acceptable housing standards since 1860.
Figure 6.7 Informal and formal settlements, northern suburbs, Mumbai.
Figure 6.8 Shanghai household income distribution, 1998. Source: Jie Chen, Qianjin Hao, and Mark
Stephens, Assessing Housing Affordability in Post-Reform China: A Case Study of Shanghai (London:
Routledge, 2010).
Figure 6.9 Shanghai changes in household income distribution between 1998 and 2003. Source: Jie Chen,
Qianjin Hao, and Mark Stephens, Assessing Housing Affordability in Post-Reform China: A Case Study of
Shanghai (London: Routledge, 2010).
Figure 6.10 Hanoi’s income distribution related to housing typology, 2005. Source: Data are from Hanoi
Integrated Development and Environmental Programme (HAIDEP) Hanoi Institute of Statistics, 2005, and
author’s estimations from field surveys and satellite images.
Figure 6.11 Hanoi’s household income distribution (bottom) and floor consumption (top). Source: Data are
from Hanoi Integrated Development and Environmental Programme (HAIDEP) Hanoi Institute of
Statistics, 2005.
Figure 6.12 Income and housing consumption—market outcome.
Figure 6.13 Impact on housing consumption of removing supply side constraints.
Figure 6.14 Housing consumption with mortgage for some.
Figure 6.15 Government set minimum consumption.
Figure 6.16 Theoretical effects of housing vouchers (partial equilibrium).
Figure 6.17 Impact of public housing supply side subsidies on housing consumption.
Figure 6.18 Number of units supplied under the RDP housing subsidy program and land use requirements.
Figure 6.19 Gauteng’s spatial distribution of population density, 2001. Sources: Census 2001 Municipal
report Gauteng, Statistics South Africa, Pretoria, 2003; vectorization of built-up area using satellite imagery
by Marie-Agnes Bertaud.
Figure 6.20 Typical subsidized RDA housing project in Gauteng.
Figure 6.21 Household income distribution in New York, 2012, showing income ranges that benefit from
inclusionary zoning (red bars) and those that generate subsidies (blue bars). Source: Derived from US
Census American Community Survey, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, Furman Center, New York
University.
Figure 6.22 Market rents and subsidized rent at the VIA 57 building, New York. Sources: Data is from
application from for subsidized apartment at VIA 57 and developer advertisement for market rate rental in
same building.
Figure 6.23 Rents and subsidies received by inclusionary zoning beneficiaries residing in the VIA 57
building, New York. Source: Application form for subsidized apartment at VIA57 and developer
advertisement for market rate rental in same building. http://www.via57west.com/#neighborhood-gallery;
http://www.57and11lottery.com/assets/VIA_Ad_and_ApplicationUpdated-
d02a4451c02942f28cc0fb5af0b9b5f4312dab4999438b7c85c4f01a3071151d.pdf.
Figure 6.24 Kampung and middle-class housing site plans in Surabaya, Indonesia. Source: GIS analysis of
Surabaya topographical map by Marie-Agnes Bertaud.
Figure 6.25 Three-dimensional view and typical land use of a Shenzhen handshake village.
Figure 7.1 Map of regulatory heights within Paris municipality.
Figure 7.2 Regulation of altitudes of the tops of buildings in areas of protection. Meter NGF (Nivellement
General de la France) measured from sea level.
Figure 7.3 Jobs gained and lost in the Paris municipal area and immediate suburbs, between 1996 and
2006. Source: Chambre régionale de commerce et d’industrie, Institut national de la statistique et des études
économiques, Institut d’aménagement et d’urbanisme de d’Île-de-France, 2008.
Figure 7.4 How floor area ratio (FAR) is calculated.
Figure 7.5 M1-5A and M1-5B manufacturing districts in SoHo/NoHo, Manhattan. Source: NYC Zoning
District Map data containing the neighborhood south of Washington Square: M1-5A and M1-5B. Districts
used with the permission of the New York City Department of City Planning. All rights reserved.