Ontario Public Service Guidance Document for Quantifying Projected and Actual Greenhouse Gas ...

125 Pages·2017·2.06 MB·English

CHEMINFO

Ontario Public Service Guidance
Document for Quantifying Projected and
Actual Greenhouse Gas Emission
Reductions

Final
Version 1
June 30, 2017

Prepared for:

Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change
Program Planning and Implementation Branch

Prepared by:

Cheminfo Services Inc.
30 Centurian Drive, Suite 205
Markham, Ontario L3R 8B8
Phone: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
E-mail: [email protected]
CHEMINFO
Table of Contents

1. GUIDANCE SUMMARY 1
1.1 BACKGROUND 1
1.2 PURPOSE AND SCOPE 2
1.3 BASIC CONCEPTS 3
1.4 PROJECT DESIGN AND QUANTIFICATION PRINCIPLES 6
1.5 MANAGEMENT PROCESS FOR QUANTIFYING GHG REDUCTIONS 7
1.6 INITIATIVE PLANNING 9
1.7 PROJECT PLANNING 13
1.8 PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION 23
2. INTRODUCTION 28
2.1 BACKGROUND 28
2.2 PURPOSE AND SCOPE 29
3. KEY CONCEPTS AND PRINCIPLES 30
3.1 INTRODUCTION 30
3.2 KEY GHG PROJECT ACCOUNTING CONCEPTS 30
3.3 OPS INITIATIVE DESIGN PRINCIPLES 36
3.4 QUANTIFICATION PRINCIPLES 43
3.5 MANAGEMENT PROCESS FOR QUANTIFYING GHG REDUCTIONS 47
4. INITIATIVE PLANNING 52
4.1 INTRODUCTION 52
4.2 SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: HISTORICAL GHG PERFORMANCE 52
4.3 IDENTIFYING TARGETED GHG SOURCES 54
4.4 DEFINING PROJECT TECHNOLOGIES AND PRACTICES 54
4.5 ESTABLISHING REFERENCE YEAR AND BAU FORECAST EMISSIONS 55
4.6 PREPARATION OF HISTORICAL AND REFERENCE YEAR ESTIMATES 58
4.7 PREPARATION OF BUSINESS-AS-USUAL FORECAST 60
4.8 PREPARATION OF ADOPTION RATE OBJECTIVE 60
5. PROJECT PLANNING 62
5.1 INTRODUCTION 62
5.2 DEFINING THE PROJECT SCOPE AND OBJECTIVE 62
5.3 SELECTION OF APPROPRIATE GHG REDUCTION METHODOLOGY 65
5.4 RIGOROUS APPROACH OF EVALUATING ALL SOURCES/SINKS 66
5.5 ADAPTATION OF EXISTING GHG OFFSET PROJECT PROTOCOLS 77
5.6 SIMPLIFIED CALCULATION APPROACH 79
5.7 ESTIMATE PROJECTED GHG REDUCTIONS 81
5.8 DOCUMENT PROJECT PLANNING 82
5.9 QUALITY ASSURANCE REVIEW 83

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6. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION 84
6.1 INTRODUCTION 84
6.2 BASELINE SCENARIO ADJUSTMENTS 84
6.3 QUANTIFICATION OF PROJECT ACTIVITY LEVEL PERFORMANCE 86
6.4 QUANTIFY PROJECT GHG REDUCTIONS 87
6.5 DOCUMENT PROJECT REPORT 87
6.6 QUALITY ASSURANCE REVIEW 87
6.7 MANAGEMENT REVIEW 88
7. APPENDIX A - FACTORS 89
7.1 GREENHOUSE GAS GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS 90
7.2 DEFAULT ENERGY EMISSION FACTORS 91
8. APPENDIX B - GHG QUANTIFICATION REFERENCES 93
9. APPENDIX C - SAMPLE PROJECT CALCULATIONS 95
9.1 PROJECT DESCRIPTION 95
9.2 PROJECT PLANNING 95
9.3 PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION 100
10. APPENDIX D - SURVEY SAMPLING AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS 106
10.1 POPULATION MEAN 106
10.2 POPULATION TOTAL 108
10.3 POPULATION PROPORTION 110
10.4 STRATIFIED SAMPLING 111
10.5 CLUSTER SAMPLING 111
11. APPENDIX E – REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY 112
12. APPENDIX F - DATABASES 115
13. APPENDIX G - AVAILABLE OFFSET PROTOCOLS 117
13.1 ALBERTA OFFSET PROTOCOLS 117
13.2 CALIFORNIA OFFSET PROTOCOLS 118
13.3 BRITISH COLUMBIA OFFSET PROTOCOLS 118
13.4 ONTARIO/QUEBEC OFFSET PROTOCOLS (PLANNED) 119
13.5 CLIMATE ACTION RESERVE OFFSET PROTOCOLS 119

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List of Tables

TABLE 1: GREENHOUSE GASES AND GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS ............................................................................ 3
TABLE 2: DEVELOP THE BUSINESS-AS-USUAL FORECAST FOR TARGET POPULATION ....................................................... 11
TABLE 3: ESTABLISH TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION OBJECTIVE ......................................................................................... 15
TABLE 4: ESTIMATING PROJECTED GHG REDUCTIONS .............................................................................................. 17
TABLE 5: NORTH AMERICAN GHG OFFSET PROJECT PROTOCOLS ............................................................................... 19
TABLE 6: QUANTIFICATION OF ACTUAL PROJECT PERFORMANCE ................................................................................ 24
TABLE 7: QUANTIFICATION OF ACTUAL PROJECT GHG REDUCTIONS ........................................................................... 25
TABLE 8: TYPICAL SOURCES OF GHG EMISSIONS ..................................................................................................... 32
TABLE 9: ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES OF BACKGROUND INFORMATION RELATED TO TARGET POPULATION OF EMISSION SOURCES
FOR INITIATIVE ........................................................................................................................................ 53
TABLE 10: NORTH AMERICAN GHG OFFSET PROJECT PROTOCOLS ............................................................................. 77
TABLE 11: GHG GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS ................................................................................................... 90
TABLE 12: DEFAULT ENERGY GHG EMISSION FACTORS ............................................................................................ 92
TABLE 13: REFERENCE QUANTIFICATION METHODOLOGY RESOURCES ......................................................................... 93
TABLE 14: GHG EMISSION RATES FOR BASELINE & PROJECT SCENARIOS ..................................................................... 96
TABLE 15: BAU GHG FORECAST ......................................................................................................................... 98
TABLE 16: GHG PROJECT SCOPE - ADOPTION RATE OBJECTIVE AND NUMBER OF TECHNOLOGY ADOPTERS ........................ 98
TABLE 17: CALCULATION OF PROJECTED GHG REDUCTIONS AND PROJECTED GHG FORECAST ......................................... 98
TABLE 18: REVISED BAU GHG FORECAST ........................................................................................................... 103
TABLE 19: GHG PROJECT SCOPE - ACTUAL TECHNOLOGY ADOPTERS AND CALCULATED ADOPTION RATES ....................... 103
TABLE 20: CALCULATION OF ACTUAL GHG REDUCTIONS AND ACTUAL GHG PERFORMANCE ......................................... 103
TABLE 21: USEFUL DATABASES .......................................................................................................................... 115
TABLE 22: ALBERTA OFFSET PROTOCOLS ............................................................................................................. 117
TABLE 23: CALIFORNIA OFFSET PROTOCOLS ......................................................................................................... 118
TABLE 24: BRITISH COLUMBIA OFFSET PROTOCOLS ............................................................................................... 118
TABLE 25: ONTARIO/QUEBEC OFFSET PROTOCOLS (PLANNED) ................................................................................ 119
TABLE 26: CLIMATE ACTION RESERVE OFFSET PROTOCOLS ..................................................................................... 119

List of Figures

FIGURE 1: SIMPLIFIED GHG REDUCTION QUANTIFICATION MANAGEMENT PROCESS ........................................................ 8
FIGURE 2: PROJECT PLANNING - SAMPLE PROJECTED GHG REDUCTIONS ..................................................................... 26
FIGURE 3: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION - SAMPLE ACTUAL GHG REDUCTIONS ............................................................... 26
FIGURE 4: DETAILED GHG REDUCTION MANAGEMENT PROCESS ............................................................................... 48
FIGURE 5: IDENTIFYING AND SELECTING GHG SOURCES/SINKS .................................................................................. 67
FIGURE 6: PROJECT PLANNING - SAMPLE PROJECTED GHG REDUCTIONS ................................................................... 104
FIGURE 7: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION - SAMPLE ACTUAL GHG REDUCTIONS ............................................................. 104
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Abbreviations and Acronyms

BAU Business-as-usual
CCAP Climate Change Action Plan
CH Methane
4
CO Carbon dioxide
2
CO e Carbon dioxide equivalent
2
EF Emission Factor
EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
GGRA Greenhouse Gas Reduction Account
GHG Greenhouse gas(es)
GJ Gigajoule
GWP Global warming potential
HFC Hydrofluorocarbon
HHV Higher Heating Value
HistY Historical year
IESO Independent Electricity System Operator
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ISO International Organization for Standardization
IT Information technology
J Joule
kg Kilogram
LHV Lower heating value
M3 Cubic metre
MBC Management Board Cabinet
MJ Megajoules
MW Megawatt
MWh Megawatt-hour
N O Nitrous oxide
2
NF Nitrogen trifluoride
3
ODS Ozone depleting substance
OPS Ontario Public Service
PFC Perfluorocarbon
PY Project year
RefY Reference year
Q Quantity
SF Sulphur hexafluoride
6
t Metric tonnes
TB Treasury Board
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WBCSD World Business Council for Sustainable Development
WCI Western Climate Initiative Inc.
WRI World Resources Institute
y, yr Year
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1. Guidance Summary

1.1 Background

Ontario’s Climate Change Strategy1 outlines a path to a low-carbon, climate resilient
society by setting out the transformative change required to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions to meet target levels. The strategy provides GHG reduction targets of 15% by
2020, 37% by 2030, and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. Ontario’s 2016 Climate Change
Action Plan (CCAP) marks the first of a series of five-year plans focused on reducing GHG
emissions to meet reduction targets, create a low-carbon economy, and support industry,
businesses and households in making low-carbon choices.2

In support of the CCAP, the province has implemented a cap and trade program for which
compliance obligations for emitters began January 1, 2017. Government proceeds from the
program will be invested into initiatives that are projected to reduce or support the
reduction of GHGs, as outlined in the Climate Change Mitigation and Low-carbon
Economy Act of 2016.3 All proceeds from the program will be tracked in a designated
purpose account called the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Account (GGRA). Proceeds will be
applied to implement CCAP initiatives. Ontario Public Service (OPS) ministries will be
managing funds for CCAP initiatives that will achieve GHG emission reductions among
emitters in communities under their jurisdictions. The Minister of the Environment and
Climate Change will review and evaluate investments for initiatives and provide the
evaluation to Treasury Board and Management Board Cabinet (TB/MBC) prior to the
release of GGRA funds to ministries. Credible estimates of GHG emission reductions are
key components of OPS ministry submissions for funding initiatives. Such estimates will
also be important for the management process in tracking progress and making continuous
improvements to the design, implementation and ongoing funding of initiatives.

1 Government of Ontario (2016) Ontario’s Climate Change Strategy. https://www.ontario.ca/page/climate-
change-strategy
2 Government of Ontario (2016) Climate Change Action Plan. https://www.ontario.ca/page/climate-change-
action-plan
3 Government of Ontario (2016) Ontario Climate Change Mitigation and Low-carbon Economy Act, 2016
and Schedule 1 of Ontario Regulation 143/16. http://www.ontla.on.ca/bills/bills-
files/41_Parliament/Session1/b172ra.pdf
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1.2 Purpose and Scope

The purpose of this guidance document is to provide assistance to OPS ministries for their
process of preparing and submitting estimates of projected and actual GHG emission
reductions for CCAP projects. It may also be useful for GHG emitter community partners
and stakeholders that are working with ministries to plan, implement and quantify
achievements in reducing emissions.

The guidance document describes principles and quantification methodologies, along with
some of the supporting information and further resources that are likely to be needed.
Applying the principles and methodologies outlined in this document should result in
reduced effort and enhance the overall quality of submissions and reports on progress
achieved by the initiatives.

This Guidance Summary provides some basic concepts and then focuses on three phases
involved in the process of estimating GHG emission reductions, namely:

• Initiative Planning;
• Project Planning; and
• Project Implementation.

The principles, methodologies and other suggested guidance in this document are meant to
be voluntary for consideration by OPS ministries. Their application should facilitate the
continuous improvement process for managing CCAP initiatives and their specific GHG
reduction projects.

There are a number of concepts and elements involved in estimating GHG emission
reductions associated with projects. One way to help understand some of these concepts is
to work through an example. For this Guidance Summary, a simple generic illustrative
example is used to help explain the estimation logic. More detailed information on the
project example is provided in the rest of the document and Appendix C. However, further
guidance and information than that which is contained in this document will likely be
needed in calculating GHG emission reductions resulting from projects. Depending on the
complexities involved in calculating GHG emission reductions and the internal capabilities
of OPS ministry staff, subject matter experts might also need to be consulted.

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1.3 Basic Concepts

1.3.1 Greenhouse Gases and Their Global Warming Potentials

There are five greenhouse gases (GHGs) and two additional groups of chemicals that
contribute to warming of the atmosphere. These GHGs are not all equal with respect to
their contribution to atmospheric warming. A metric ton (tonne) of methane, nitrous oxide
or other GHG is more potent than one tonne of carbon dioxide (CO ). The
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identifies the Global Warming
Potential (GWP) factors for all GHGs in their Assessment Reports. GWPs are used to
convert mass emissions of each GHG to carbon dioxide equivalent (CO e) units. By
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converting to equivalent units, all GHG emissions can be summed on a consistent basis.

Table 1: Greenhouse Gases and Global Warming Potentials

Greenhouse Gases Formula GWP
Carbon dioxide CO 1
2
Methane CH 25
4
Nitrous oxide N O 298
2
Sulphur hexafluoride SF 22,800
6
Nitrogen trifluoride NF 17,200
3
53-14,800
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) 19 GHG chemicals
See Appendix A
7,390-12,200
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) 7 GHG chemicals
See Appendix A
Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2017) National Inventory Report 1990–2015:
Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada, Table 1.1 (obtained from IPCC AR4 Report, 2007)

Calculation Example:

A vehicle consuming 10,000 litres of diesel fuel releases 26.90 tonnes of carbon dioxide
(CO ), 0.0011 tonnes of methane (CH ), and 0.0015 tonnes of nitrous oxide (N O).
2 4 2

Using the GWPs above, these quantities can be multiplied by their GWPs and summed to
estimate the total GHG emissions.

CO 26.90 x 1 = 26.90 tonnes-CO e
2 2
CH 0.0011 x 25 = 0.03 tonnes-CO e
4 2
N O 0.0015 x 298 = 0.45 tonnes-CO e
2 2

Total GHG = 27.38 tonnes-CO e.
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1.3.2 GHG Sources and Sinks

A GHG emission source is a physical unit or a process that releases a GHG into the
atmosphere. Fossil fuel combustion sources are typically classified as: stationary fuel
combustion (e.g., furnaces, boilers) and mobile equipment combustion (e.g., vehicles,
heavy equipment). Flaring is a specialized case of fuel combustion. GHG emissions can
occur directly from contained or natural sources through venting or fugitive emissions.
GHG emissions can also be generated from industrial processes (e.g., chemical reactions),
fertilizer use in soils, livestock, and organic waste. Emissions of fluorinated GHGs (HFCs,
PFCs, SF ) usually come from generation or use of these gases.
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Biogenic CO emissions, which originate from biological carbon sources (produced by life
2
processes), are deemed to have a net-zero contribution to global warming because they are
part of the natural carbon cycle. In other words, emissions of CO generated from the
2
combustion or decomposition of biomass or other biogenic sources are typically not
considered to be anthropogenic (man-made) GHG emissions. However, it is still good
practice to calculate biogenic CO emissions and report them separately as information
2
items. CH and N O emissions that may be generated from the combustion or
4 2
decomposition of biomass and other biogenic sources are included as GHG emissions
because they are created by man-made processes. There are no biogenic sources of SF ,
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NF , HFCs, and PFCs.
3

A GHG sink is a physical unit or process that removes a GHG from the atmosphere. These
include biological sinks such as trees in forests, agricultural crops, and other vegetation.
Manipulated biological systems, such as agricultural lands, forest tracts, and land converted
to other uses, can be sinks as well as sources diffused over very large areas.4 CO that is
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removed from the atmosphere by man-made increases in biological sinks (e.g.,
afforestation, reforestation) are included as removals in GHG project accounting.

1.3.3 GHG Emission Reduction Projects

In this guidance document, the term “GHG reductions” will be a general term that refers
to both GHG emission reductions and GHG removal enhancements for simplicity. GHG
emission reductions are achieved by emitters adopting technologies and making changes
in behaviours and operating practices. GHG removal examples of technologies are: fuel
switching to fuels that have lower carbon content per unit of energy released; higher
efficiency furnaces; installation of insulation; and wind power. Examples of behaviours
and operating practices are: reducing the temperature of the home thermostat; turning off
lights when not needed; and, optimizing an industrial process to reduce energy use.

4 Environment and Climate Change Canada (2017) National Inventory Report 1990–2015: Greenhouse Gas
Sources and Sinks in Canada, https://www.ec.gc.ca/ges-ghg/default.asp?lang=En&n=83A34A7A-1
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