On Ceasefire Agreements and Peace Processes in Aceh and Sri Lanka

282 Pages·2013·3.65 MB·English

Malin Åkebo
The Politics of
Ceasefires
On Ceasefire Agreements and Peace Processes
in Aceh and Sri Lanka
Department of Political Science
Umeå University, 2013
The Politics of Ceasefires
On Ceasefire Agreements and
Peace Processes in Aceh and Sri Lanka
Malin Åkebo

Department of Political Science
Umeå 2013
Copyright © Malin Åkebo
This work is protected by the Swedish Copyright Legislation (Act 1960:729)
ISBN: 978-91-7459-697-7
ISSN: 0349-0831
Department of Political Science, Research Report 2013:4
Cover: Photo by Vincent Jeyan. School children in Jaffna, Sri Lanka. Taken when
the 2002 Ceasefire Agreement was in force.
Electronic version available at http://umu.diva-portal.org/
Printed by: Print & Media, Umeå University
Umeå, Sweden 2013
To Jon-Anders

Abstract
In recent decades we have seen an increase in peace processes aimed at solving
armed conflicts through peaceful means. The often fragile characteristics of such
processes and the settlements that they produce underline the essential importance
of improving our understanding of the dynamics at play in transitions from war to
peace. This thesis aims to contribute to this overarching objective by analysing
ceasefire agreements in relation to peace processes in two protracted intrastate
armed conflicts: Aceh, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka. In the scholarly literature, ceasefire
agreements are often assumed to create momentum due to their ability to pave the
way to a peaceful solution. At the same time, it has also been suggested that ceasefires
can influence conflict dynamics in negative ways. Although there are many
unanswered questions about ceasefire agreements in contemporary peace processes,
few studies have been devoted to systematic and in-depth analysis of how ceasefire
agreements can be characterized and analysed in relation to peace processes in
protracted intrastate conflicts. This thesis, which is based on written documents and
on interviews conducted during four research trips to the region, contributes to filling
this research gap by presenting comparative case studies of Aceh and Sri Lanka. The
point of departure in the study is a process-oriented, conflict dynamics approach and
a view that war-to-peace transitions require changes in the conflicting parties’
attitudes, behaviours and relationships. I analyse and compare ceasefire agreements
by looking at their initiation, form and content, and by examining their
implementation and the unfolding of the processes. I identify six key factors in the
literature that can influence the conflicting parties’ attitudes, behaviours and
relationships. I then use these factors to analyse ceasefire agreements in relation to
the dynamics of the broader peace processes. In this thesis I show how these key
factors – including issues of recognition, trust, whether the parties’ claims are met,
international involvement, contextual changes and intra-party dynamics – have
mattered. I also show that context is important for understanding how and why they
have mattered. The results suggest that ceasefire agreements can facilitate war-to-
peace transitions; however, it also illuminates challenges and the risk that such
agreements can be counter-productive in the context of intrastate conflicts. The study
also shows that ceasefire agreements have a historical legacy, as illustrated by their
impact on subsequent interactions and agreements, and it underlines the symbolic
politics of ceasefires in asymmetrical intrastate conflicts. The thesis ends with a
number of propositions, among others that ceasefire agreements tend to become
more comprehensive over time and that power struggles and developments within
the conflicting parties are important for understanding ceasefire agreements in
relation to contemporary peace processes.
Keywords: ceasefire agreement, peace process, war-to-peace transition, conflict
resolution, conflict dynamics, intrastate conflict, Aceh, Sri Lanka
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Acknowledgements
The idea of this thesis started to develop when I conducted a minor field
study in Sri Lanka in the spring of 2006. By that time, there had been an on-
going ceasefire for more than four years, but few signs of progress were being
made towards finding a peaceful solution to the violent conflict. The
experiences from this trip triggered me into deeper thinking about the
complexities and challenges of war-to-peace transitions, and eventually it led
me to pursue this PhD project. There are many people whom I would like to
thank for providing guidance, support and inspiration during this process.
First, my deepest gratitude goes to my supervisors, whose engagement and
encouragement have been invaluable for the completion of this thesis. Malin
Eklund Wimelius, my main supervisor, has generously given constructive
and insightful comments on every draft chapter and in response to all of my
questions. This was essential in helping me to further develop my ideas and
arguments. I am grateful for her dedication and for inspiring discussions,
and because she always patiently took the time to give me a second opinion
and encouraged me in times of doubt. Jan Engberg has also shown
confidence in me and my project from the very beginning. His guidance and
‘to the point’ comments were important contributions that really helped me
move the project forward and to see the larger picture. John Loughlin,
University of Cambridge, came along later in the process, and he provided
important insights that helped me develop different parts of the thesis. Even
before I started this project, he was also a source of inspiration for me to do
comparative work on peace processes. Many thanks to all three of you!
Special thanks also to Camilla Orjuela, University of Gothenburg, for a
close reading and well-reasoned comments on a late version of the thesis,
which prompted me to clarify and sharpen some of my arguments. Cynthia
Kite did excellent work proofreading the text. Her attentiveness and careful
reading not only improved the manuscript, but was also a great comfort in
the final stages of writing this thesis. Thanks also to Christina Boström for
support with the layout.
I am sincerely thankful for the encouragement and support I received
from past and present colleagues at the Department of Political Science,
Umeå University. I appreciate the insightful comments I got during
department seminars and all the administrative support I received over the
years. The kind and friendly company made it a pleasure to come to work. A
warm thank you to all my PhD colleagues. It has been a privilege to work
closely with you during these years, and to share with you the experiences of
writing a thesis. Thanks to Elisabeth Olivius, Abrak Saati and Veronica
Strandberg – with whom I share an interest in issues related to peace and
conflict – for conversations that were always inspiring, whether they were
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related to work or to life beyond it. Your company also made trips to various
conferences and courses in Sweden and abroad very enjoyable! Many thanks
also to Susanne Alldén for generously sharing her experiences with me
during my first years as a PhD student, to Patrik Johansson for thoughtful
comments on draft chapters, and to Ann-Sofi Rönnbäck for friendly support
in matters of all kinds. Outside of the department, I also received insightful
feedback at various conferences, including from Emma Elfversson, Johanna
Söderström, Kristin Bakke and Anat Niv-Solomon. Thank you!
My research trips have been among the most interesting and inspiring
parts of carrying out this project. I am deeply grateful to everyone I
interviewed for sharing their insights and experiences with me. It has been a
true privilege to hear so many amazing stories, and an academic publication
can never do them full justice. Even though this thesis recounts many
problems that hindered efforts to find peaceful solutions to violent conflicts,
I have often been encouraged by these stories. I am also indebted to the
people and organizations that provided invaluable assistance during the
research trips. The Aceh Institute in Banda Aceh and the Centre for Strategic
and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta provided office space and helped
me with various arrangements during my visits. Thanks also to the Institute
of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) in Singapore for allowing me to use their
facilities, and to the National University of Singapore (NUS) and the
International Centre for Ethnic Studies (ICES) in Colombo for providing
valuable library access. Thanks to Vincent Jeyan for the cover photo.
I gratefully acknowledge the support of the Helge Ax:son Johnson
Foundation, the Lars Hierta Foundation, the JC Kempe Memorial Funds and
the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation. Their funding made this
research possible.
Finally, I would like to express my deep gratitude to my family and dear
friends for their endless support, for the interest they have shown in my
work and for putting up with periods during which I was away or
preoccupied with this project. Special thanks to my mother Ingrid, my father
Ulf, my sister Maria, her husband Fredrik and my nephews Filip and Elias
for always being there for me, as well as for frequent dinners and countless
text messages that provided welcomed breaks from work! As well, many
thanks to the Åkebo family for their support and for helping me get my mind
off work. Jon – my gratitude for your support and encouragement during
this project and in everything in life is beyond words. Always with a positive
outlook, you have provided pep-talks and discussed issues both small and
large – at home in Umeå, when visiting me in remote places or from the
Ningbo-apartment. Thank you for your constant love and support!

Malin Åkebo
Umeå, July 2013
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Table of Contents

Abstract i 
Acknowledgements iii 
Table of Contents v 
Tables, Figures and Maps viii
Acronyms ix
1 Introduction 1 
1.1   Research problem 2 
1.1.1   Aim and research questions 5 
1.2   Previous research 6 
1.3   Rationale and relevance 10 
1.3.1   Why ceasefire agreements? 10 
1.3.2   Why the Asian region? 13 
1.3.3   Limitations 14 
1.4  Outline of the thesis 15 
2 Theory 17 
2.1   Concepts and definitions 18 
2.1.1   What is a peace process? 18 
2.1.2   What is a ceasefire agreement? 20 
2.2   State, territory and identity in a changing global context 23 
2.2.1   State of the state and conflict in South and Southeast Asia 23 
2.2.2   Conflict resolution in South and Southeast Asia 26 
2.3   Transition from war to peace 28 
2.3.1   Perspectives on war-to-peace transitions 28 
2.3.2   What influences changes in conflicting parties’ attitudes,
behaviours, and relationships? 33 
2.3.3   The management of peace processes 37 
2.4   Analytical framework 40 
2.4.1   Analytical tools 41 
2.4.1.1   Initiation and by whom 41 
2.4.1.2   Form and content 44 
2.4.1.3   Implementation 48 
2.4.2   Bringing the pieces together: a framework for analysing
ceasefire agreements in relation to peace processes 51 
3 Methodology 55 
3.1   Research design 55 
3.1.1   A qualitative comparative case study strategy 55 
3.1.2   Comparative logics 57 
3.2   Why Asia and why Aceh and Sri Lanka? 58 
v