On Baltic Slovenia and Adriatic Lithuania : a qualitative comparative analysis of patterns in post-communist transformation

377 Pages·2012·3.929 MB·English

by  Zenonas Norkus

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ZENONAS NORKUS is a professor at the Department of Sociology, S INIVEc S Capitalism
Faculty of Philosophy, Vilnius University. His book publications include P COlo
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Empire. Grand Duchy of Lithuania from the Viewpoint of Comparative
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Analysis (in Lithuanian, 2011; co-authored with Vaidas Morkevičius). RSr
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On Baltic Slovenia

and Adriatic Lithuania

Zenonas Norkus
On Baltic Slovenia
and Adriatic Lithuania
A QUALITATIVE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
OF PATTERNS IN POST-COMMUNIST TRANSFORMATION
This research was funded by a grant (No. LIT-2-12)
from the Research Council of Lithuania
Layout design by Rokas Gelažius
Translated from Lithuanian by Jūras Barauskas and Darius J. Ross
Copy-edited by Stephen John Dean
Published by Apostrofa
Kalvarijų 294B-5, LT- 08318 Vilnius, Lithuania
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.apostrofa.lt
Distributed by Central European University Press
Budapest – New York
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Printed by Standartų spaustuvė
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Website: www.standart.lt
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Norkus, Zenonas.
On Baltic Slovenia and Adriatic Lithuania : a qualitative comparative analysis
of patterns in post-communist transformation / Zenonas Norkus.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and indexes.
ISBN 978 6155053504 (hardbound)
1. Post-communism–Europe, Eastern. 2. Europe, Eastern–Politics and government–1989-
3. Europe, Eastern–Economic conditions–1989- 4. Capitalism–Europe, Eastern.
5. Social sciences–Comparative method. 6. Social change–Europe, Eastern. I. Title.
HX44.5.N68 2012
330.94793–dc23 2011039142
© Zenonas Norkus, 2012
© Vilnius University, 2012
© Apostrofa, 2012
ISBN 978-9955-605-68-3
ISBN 978-615-5053-50-4
Contents
List of Figures 7
List of Tables 8
Introduction 11
PART I. PATTERNS OF POST-COMMUNIST TRANSFORMATION 27
CHAPTER 1. The Concept of Post-Communist Transformation 31
1.1. What Was Communism? 31
1.2. The Concept of the Exit from Communism 42
1.3. Conceptual Foundations of the Typology of Paths
of Post-Communist Transformation 49
CHAPTER 2. Orientations and Modes of Post-Communist Transformation 66
2.1. Orientations of the Exit from Communism: Concepts and Cases 66
2.2. Economic Modes of the Exit from Communism: Concepts and Cases 77
2.3. Political Modes of the Exit from Communism: Concepts and Cases 88
CHAPTER 3. Economic and Political Outcomes
of Post-Communist Transformation 95
3.1. Change and Diversity of Capitalism
in the Comparative Economic Sociology and Political Economy 95
3.2. Rational Entrepreneurial Capitalism in the Post-Communist World 107
3.3. Political Oligarchic and State Capitalism
in the Post-Communist World 119
3.4. Democracy, Authoritarianism, and Their Adjectives:
Outcomes of Political Transformation 133
CHAPTER 4. Pathways and Patterns of Post-Communist Transformation 140
4.1. Comparative Qualitative Analysis as a Method of Theory Building 140
4.2. From Empirically Observed to Counterfactual Ways
of Post-Communist Transformation 151
4.3. All Ways of Post-Communist Transformation 173
5
PART I I. CAPITALISM AND DEMOCRACY IN POST-COMMUNIST
LITHUANIA: DEEPENING COMPARATIVE CONTEXTS 199
CHAPTER 5. Why Lithuania “Lagged” Behind Estonia? 208
5.1. A North-South Gap in the Post-Communist Transformation
of the Baltic States as a Problem of Explanation 208
5.2. An Economic Explanation of Lithuania’s Falling Back 213
5.3. A Political-Economic Explanation:
Does the Blame Lay on Lithuanian Ex-Communists? 217
5.4. A Culturalist Explanation: “Weber’s Thesis” for the Baltic Countries? 222
5.5. Latvia and Other Difficulties of the Culturalist Explanation
of the Estonia’s Success: Towards Resolution 232
CHAPTER 6. Between Estonia and Slovenia: Post-Communist
Capitalism in Lithuania and Its Prospects 242
6.1. Baltic States and Slovenia as Extremities
of Post-Communist Rational Entrepreneurial Capitalism 242
6.2. Baltic Capitalism(s) – New Liberal Market Economies
Between the Core and Periphery? 253
6.3. Could Lithuania Have Become the “Baltic Slovenia”? 269
6.4. How Slovenia Could Have Become the “Adriatic Lithuania” 288
CHAPTER 7. The Presidential Impeachment as the Stress Test
of the Liberal Democracy in Lithuania 296
7.1. Populism and Perils of Semi-Presidentialism
in the Baltics and Central Europe 297
7.2. Paksasgate Story: Staging, Casting, and Plots about Plots 306
7.3. Did the Successful Impeachment of Rolandas Paksas
Save Liberal Democracy in Lithuania from Breakdown? 318
7.4. Was it All Sound and Fury, Signifying Nothing, or Why Impeachment
Did Not Enhance the Quality of Democracy in Lithuania? 324
Concluding Clarifications and Invitations 335
References 339
Name Index 361
Subject Index 368
6
List of Figures
0.1. The location of the first academic research institute in Soviet Studies
in the world (Instytut Naukowo-Badawczy Europy Wschodniej, 1930–1939) 12
3.1. Economic development and overall index of coordination 110
3.2. State capture index in 1999 123
3.3. Post-communist capitalism typology 124
4.1. Dimensions of lawhood 194
5.1. GDP of Estonia in 1989–2010 211
5.2. GDP of Lithuania in 1989–2010 212
5.3. Initial conditions of the post-communist economic modernization 215
5.4. GDP of Latvia in 1989–2010 221
6.1. GDP of Slovenia in 1989–2010 243
6.2. Stock market capitalization to GDP ratio in 2004–2009 254
6.3. Shares traded by GDP in 2004–2009 255
6.4. Shares traded by stock-market capitalization in 2004–2009 255
6.5. Domestic credit to private sector by GDP 257
6.6. Contribution of total factor productivity (TFP), employment,
and capital increases to average GDP growth, 1995–2001 259
6.7. Shifts of EU-27 countries in the factor space of the added value sector
structure in 2000–2005 264
6.8. European regional innovation performance groups in EU states 292
7.1. The changes in the overall satisfaction with democracy
in Lithuania 1991–2007 326
7
List of Tables
1.1. Logical development possibilities for communist regime 45
1.2. The classification of the pathways of post-communist transformation
during first decade 57
3.1. Ideal types of technologically advanced 4th and 5th Kondratieff waves
rational entrepreneurial capitalism 103
3.2. Central European dependent market economies (DME) in comparison with
coordinated market economy (CME) and liberal market economy (LME) 116
3.3. Real GDP annual growth rate averages by country groups in the first
post-communist decade 126
3.4. Real GDP annual growth rate averages by country groups in the second
post-communist decade 130
4.1. Multi-value QCA data table for pathways of post-communist
transformations 142
4.2. The table of configurations for the analysis of the liberal democratic
capitalism emergence pathways 145
4.3. Unobserved cases in the assumed scripts of the preliminary pattern
for successful rapid transition to liberal democratic capitalism 152
4.4. Unobserved cases in the assumed scripts of the alternative preliminary
pattern for successful rapid transition to liberal democratic capitalism 153
4.5. Unobserved cases in the assumed scripts of the preliminary pattern
for the failures of the rapid transition to liberal democratic capitalism 155
4.6. Unobserved cases in the assumed scripts of the alternative preliminary
pattern for the failures of the rapid transition to liberal democratic capitalism 156
4.7. Unobserved cases in the assumed scripts of the preliminary pattern for
successful rapid transition to rational entrepreneurial capitalism 176
4.8. Unobserved cases in the assumed scripts of the preliminary pattern
for unsuccessful rapid transition to to rational entrepreneurial capitalism 177
8
4.9. Residual unobserved cases not considered in the search for minimal
patterns in pathways to liberal democratic capitalism and rational
entrepreneurial capitalism 180
4.10. Final pattern for the rapid success of the building of liberal
democratic capitalism (full version) 183
4.11. Final pattern for the failure in the rapid building of liberal democratic
capitalism (full version) 183
4.12. Final pattern for the rapid success of the building of rational
entrepreneurial capitalism (full version) 184
4.13. Final pattern for the failure in the rapid building of rational
entrepreneurial capitalism (full version) 184
4.14. Final pattern for the emergence of political oligarchic capitalism
(full version) 185
4.15. Final pattern for the non-emergence of political oligarchic capitalism
(full version) 185
4.16. Final pattern for the emergence of state capitalism (full version) 186
4.17. Final pattern for the non-emergence of state capitalism (full version) 186
4.18. Final pattern for the rapid success of liberal democracy (full version) 187
4.19. Final pattern for the failure of liberal democracy during the first decade
of post-communist transformation (full version) 187
5.1. The growth in real GDP in Central and Eastern Europe, Baltic States
and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) during the first decade
of post-communist transition 210
5.2. The differences in basic value orientations between Lithuanians,
Estonians, and Latvians in 1990 224
6.1. Collective bargaining coverage and trade union membership in 2009 247
9