Oil Impact on Recycled Carpet Fibers: Alastair Carmichael

45 Pages·2016·0.75 MB·English

CARE Conference 2016
Oil and Natural Gas: Impact on
Synthetic Fibers
Alasdair Carmichael, May 2016
[email protected]
Trusted commercial intelligence
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Agenda
1. Introduction
2. Oil & Gas
3. Impact on Fibers
4. Total FibersMarket
5. Recycling Issues
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PCI Update
Verisk Analytics, Inc., Acquires The PCI Group -Nov 20 2015
Acquisition of PCI will create an industry-leading chemicals business at
Verisk’s Wood Mackenzie.
Verisk Analytics, is a New Jersey based company providing risk assessment
and data analytics services to a variety of industries. 2014 revenues of $1.75
billion and over 6,000 full time people.
In Q1 2015 Verisk bought Wood Mackenzie, an Edinburgh, Scotland company
est. in 1844. Wood Mackenzie developed an oil and energy business in 1973
and have built on that to become a global leader in commercial intelligence
for the energy, metals and mining industries.
The PCI Group and its associates are now a part of Wood Mackenzie in an
additive and complimentary function bringing downstream expertise through
the supply chain across petrochemicals, xylenes and polyesters, resins,
nylons and fibres, and films.
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3
Product Coverage
PCI Research Wood Mackenzie Future Research
Oil Refinery / Gas Field Petrochemical Complex Downstream Products
Basic Intermediate
Feedstocks
Petrochemicals Petrochemicals
EndProducts
Methane
Processing Methanol
Natural Gas Reforming Fertilisers
Natural Gas Syngas Ammonia
Explosives
g
Ethane Urea
Processing Resins
LPG Polyethylenes
Plastics and Films
Ethylene EDC/VCM/PVC
EOD’s/Detergents
Olefins
Ethylene
Antifreeze
Plant
Oxide
Polyester Fibers
Ethylene Glycol
Naphtha Propylene
Plastics
Gas Oil
Polypropylene
Acrylic Fibers
Crude Oil Olefa Acrylonitrile Plastic Coatings
Petroleum Crude C4s Oxo-alcohols
nt
Synth Rubbers
Refining
Butadiene
Tyres/Nylon66
Reformate
Benzene Plastics & Foams
Aromatics Styrene
Nylons
Ar Cyclohexane
Separation
Nylons, PC Resins
Cumene/Phenol/
o-Xylene
Acetone
Plasticizers/Resins
Oma
Polyester Fibers &
Phthalic Anhydride
Resins
p-Xylene
tics DMT/PTA Urethane Foams
Gasoline Jet Lube Asphalt TDI
Fuel Oils Toluene
Benzene / MDI
Kerosene Diesel Fuel Oil
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Oil Prices $/barrel
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
WTI Brent
Oil Prices are Global. Brent & WTI expected to remain close.
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Daily WTI Oil Prices –April -May 2016, $/barrel
Highest
50 since Nov 15
12 months
48
ago -$60
46
44
42
40
38
36 Oil up 26%, over
6 weeks.
34
PTA/MEG in
32 China down 6.8%!
30
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Unlikely to see significant price appreciation until market sentiment finds
a positive price catalyst
Brent price outlook (US$/bbl)
140
Forecast
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: History -Argus; Forecast -Wood Mackenzie
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Need about 5 million b/d of new supply by 2020 to meet demand
Prices of at least $60-$70/bblneeded to support necessary supply
Potential 2020 supply by breakeven
2020 supply gap (mb/d)
tranche & asset type (mb/d)
100
9
* Planned Pre-FID projects +
98 8
New US L48 Drilling
7
96
6
94
5 Oil Sands
Tight Oil
4
92
Ultra-Deepwater
3
Deepwater
90
2 Shallow Water
88 1 Onshore
0
86
2015 Demand Demand Growth Onstream Decline Under elopment Other upply Gap SupplyGap <$40* 40-$60* 60-$70* 70-$80* >$80* chnicalsnd YTF
v S $ $ $ ea
e
T
D
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Natural Gas Prices –USA $/mm bthus
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Jan
Natural Gas prices are Regional. US to keep significant advantage.
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Natural Gas Prices $/mm Btus
18
16 Japan
14 Germany
12 UK
US
10
8
6
4 22001155 UUSS
avg.
2
$2.67
0
6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4
9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1
9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Source: BP
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