Oil and Security: A World Beyond Petroleum

191 Pages·2008·1.738 MB·English

by  Ernst Gabriel Frankel (auth.), Ernst Gabriel Frankel (eds.)

OIL AND SECURITY
TOPICS IN SAFETY, RISK, RELIABILITY AND QUALITY
VOLUME12
Editor
AdrianV.Gheorghe
SwissFederalInstituteofTechnology,Zürich,Switzerland
EditorialAdvisoryBoard
P.Sander,TechnicalUniversityofEindhoven,TheNetherlands
D.C.Barrie,LakeheadUniversity,Ontario,Canada
R.Leitch,RoyalMilitaryCollegeofScience(Cranfield),Shriverham,U.K.
Aims and Scope. Fundamental questions which are being asked these days of all products,
processesandserviceswitheverincreasingfrequencyare:
Whatistherisk?
Howsafeisit?
Howreliableisit?
Howgoodisthequality?
Howmuchdoesitcost?
Thisisparticularlytrueasthegovernment,industry,public,customersandsocietybecome
increasinglyinformedandarticulate.
In practice none of the three topics can be considered in isolation as they all interact and
interrelate in very complex and subtle ways and require a range of disciplines for their
description and application; they encompass the social, engineering and physical sciences
andquantitativedisciplinesincludingmathematics,probabilitytheoryandstatistics.
The major objective of the series is to provide series of authoritative texts suitable
for academic taught courses, reference purposes, post graduate and other research and
practitionersgenerallyworkingorstronglyassociatedwithareassuchas:
SafetyAssessmentandManagement
EmergencyPlanning
RiskManagement
ReliabilityAnalysisandAssessment
VulnerabilityAssessmentandManagement
QualityAssuranceandManagement
Specialemphasisisplacedontextswithregardtoreadability,relevance,clarity,applicability,
rigourandgenerallysoundquantitativecontent.
Thetitlespublishedinthisseriesarelistedattheendofthisvolume.
Oil and Security
A World Beyond Petroleum
Towards the Demise of the Unreliable and Risk Prone
Use of Solid and Liquid Fossil Fuel and the Development
of a Sustainable World Energy System which Assures
Environmental Quality and an Equitable Socio-economic
System
Ernst Gabriel Frankel
MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology, Cambridge,USA
AC.I.P.CataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress.
ISBN978-1-4020-6381-7(HB)
ISBN978-1-4020-6382-4(e-book)
PublishedbySpringer,
P.O.Box17,3300AADordrecht,TheNetherlands.
www.springer.com
Printedonacid-freepaper
AllRightsReserved
©2007Springer
Nopartofthisworkmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted
inanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,microfilming,recording
orotherwise,withoutwrittenpermissionfromthePublisher,withtheexception
ofanymaterialsuppliedspecificallyforthepurposeofbeingentered
andexecutedonacomputersystem,forexclusiveusebythepurchaserofthework.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of Figures vii
List of Tables ix
Abbreviations and Acronyms xi
World Energy Assessment Overview xiii
Preamble xv
Preface xxi
1. Introduction 1
1.1.Cradle of the Petroleum Age 5
1.2.Future Energy Challenges 13
1.3.Assuring Energy Supply Reliability, Quality,
and a Clean Environment 17
1.4.How Much Oil is There? 19
2. Energy Supply and Policy Issues 23
2.1.The State of Global Energy Supply 26
2.2.New Sources of Energy and Energy Developments 37
2.3.Energy Policy Issues and International Impacts 43
3. Drivers of the Transition to a Cleaner and More Energy
Efficient World 45
3.1.Energy Saving Developments 47
3.2.Environmental Emissions and Reversal of the Greenhouse Effects 54
3.3.Developments in Electric Power Generation and Distribution 60
3.4.Extending Fossil Fuel Reserves 62
4. Developing the Energy Future 75
4.1.Development of Alternative Energy Sources 75
v
vi TableofContents
4.2.Fuel Cell Technology Developments 83
4.3.Hydro, Wave, and Current Energy Supply 85
4.4.Climatic and Environmental Impact Remediation or Saving
the world from Self-destruction 95
5. Political and Socio-Economic Effects of the New Energy Future 103
5.1.Population Growth, Social Factors, and Fuel Impacts 105
5.2.Effects of the New Energy Environment 108
5.3.Political Upheavals, Changes, and Impact on the Oil Markets 109
6. Arabia: The Center of the Petroleum World 111
6.1.Socio-economic Political Development 113
6.2.Opportunities for Arabian Development 124
7. The Global Energy Future 129
7.1.A New Energy Horizon 131
7.2.Impact on Arabia and the Persian Gulf 134
7.3.New Driving Forces of the Energy Future 137
7.4.A New Energy Future 139
Conclusions 145
Postscript 149
Finale 153
AppendixA. Production, Emulsification, Transportation, and Use of
Orimulsion 155
AppendixB. The Future of the Automobile as the Major Oil
Consumer 161
Bibliography 165
Index 169
LIST OF FIGURES
1. Global Energy Systems Transition, 1850–2050 27
2. Oil Reserves and Reserves to Production in Years 29
3. Crude Oil Production (Million barrels per day (OPEC-March 2001,
others Jan. 2001) 32
4. Oil Production and Imports Unit in Million barrels per day 33
5. Per Capita Energy Consumption Unit: Million barrels 33
6. U.S. Oil Production and Imports 34
7. Crude Oil and Orinoco Proven Reserves by Country Unit: billion
barrels 64
8. Coal Gasification and Its Uses 71
9. Worldwide Gasification-Capacity Forecast 72
10. Hydrogen Energy Systems 81
11. The Role of Petroleum in Global Energy Supply 104
vii
LIST OF TABLES
1. Total Energy Consumption and Production Quadrillion BTU – 1999 15
2. Average Oil Discovery and Consumption (Billions of barrels/year) 19
3. Oil Import Projections as a Percentage of Consumption 28
4. World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserves January 2, 2000 30
5. World Oil Demand and Supply (in mb/d) 31
6. U.S. Oil Supply 35
7. World Fossil Fuel Consumption (mill ton oil equivalent) 40
8. Summary of Energy or Fuel Consumption and Consumption
Forecasts (m tons oil equivalent) 42
9. Petroleum Dependence (2004) 43
10. General Energy Drivers, Enablers, and Changers 46
11. Estimated Consumer Costs of Automobile Use (2005) 53
12. Cost of Electric Power Generation in the United States 1985, 1993,
and 2000 (1993 cents per kilowatt hour) 60
13. Use of Energy for Electricity Generation (2006) 62
14. Typical Characteristics of Orinoco Heavy Crude 65
15. Nuclear Electricity Generation by Selected Country/Nations Most
Reliant on Nuclear Energy 76
16. World Nuclear Power Summary 77
17. Nuclear Power Production (% of total electric power output) 78
18. At-a-Glance, Five Principal Fuel Cell Types in Development 84
19. Sampling of Proposed Large-scale Projects to Capture CO 101
2
A-1. Storage and Handling Conditions 156
A-2. Trials by Potential Users 157
A-3. Typical Performance of Orimulsion on a Commercial Plant 158
ix
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
AEO Annual Energy Outlook
AFV Alternative Fueled Vehicles
API American Petroleum Institute
Bbbl billion barrels
bbl barrel
BP British Petroleum
Cdn Canadian
CERI Canadian Energy Research Institute
CIA Central Intelligence Agency
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States
CPE Centrally Planned Economies
DOE Department of Energy
ECE Eastern and Central Europe
EIA Energy Information Administration (US)
EMF Energy Modeling Forum
EOR Enhanced Oil Recovery
FSU Former Soviet Union
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GNP Gross National Product
HFO Heavy Fuel Oil
IEA International Energy Agency
IEW International Energy Workshop
kb/d thousand barrels per day
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
mb/d million barrels per day
mbbl million barrels
ME Middle East
mtoe million tons oil equivalent
NCW Non Communist World
NGL Natural Gas Liquid
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
OPEC Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries
xi
xii ABBREVIATIONSANDACRONYMS
p.a. per annum
PEMEX Petroleos Mexicanos
PNG Papua New Guinea
PPP Purchasing Power Parity
RFG Reformulated Gasoline
ROK Republic of Korea
TFC Total Final Consumption
TPES Total Primary Energy Supply
UAE United Arab Emirates
US United States
WAES Workshop on Alternative Energy Strategies
WTI West Texas Intermediate
ZEV Zero Emissions Vehicles