OECD Territorial Reviews: Japan 2016

254 Pages·2016·3.349 MB·English

by  Oecd Organisation For Economic Co-Operation And Development

OECD Territorial Reviews O
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JAPAN 2016 D
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This series offers analysis and policy guidance to national and sub-national governments seeking to strengthen ito
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territorial development policies and governance. These reviews are part of a larger body of OECD work ia
on regional development that addresses the territorial dimension of a range of policy challenges, including l R OECD Territorial Reviews
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governance, innovation, urban development and rural policy. This work includes both thematic reports and v
reports on specific countries or regions. iew JAPAN 2016
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Contents
Assessment and recommendations
Chapter 1. Japan’s demographic transition and the productivity challenge
Chapter 2. Long-term vision, planning and governance in Japan
Chapter 3. Building competitive and liveable metropolitan areas in Japan
Chapter 4. Policies to ensure Japan’s regional and rural revitalisation
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Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264250543-en. 0
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OECD Territorial Reviews
OECD Territorial Reviews:
Japan
2016
This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The
opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views
of OECD member countries.
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty
over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name
of any territory, city or area.
Please cite this publication as:
OECD (2016), OECD Territorial Reviews: Japan 2016, OECD Publishing, Paris.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264250543-en
ISBN 978-92-64-25046-8 (print)
ISBN 978-92-64-25054-3 (PDF)
Series: OECD Territorial Reviews
ISSN 1990-0767 (print)
ISSN 1990-0759 (PDF)
Photo credits: Cover illustration: Jeffrey Fisher
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FOREwORD
Foreword
A
t the beginning of this new millennium, many OECD countries find themselves embarked on a
demographic transition that is without precedent in history. Our populations are ageing rapidly and,
in many cases, they are also beginning to shrink. While these processes have gone further in Japan
than elsewhere, they are by no means unique to Japan – many OECD countries will move down the
same path as the century unfolds, with important consequences for both economic performance and
settlement patterns.
It is difficult to exaggerate the socio-economic importance of this shift. For most of human history,
a long-term trend of population growth was a given, even if that trend was sometimes disrupted
by sharp mortality crises, such as famines, wars or epidemics. Moreover, human communities of
all sizes tended to have pyramid-shaped age structures, with the younger cohorts being the largest
and older cohorts the smallest. As life expectancy increased, the pyramid grew taller but its shape
remained. Then, as fertility fell sharply in the latter part of the last century in many countries, the
bottom of the pyramid began to contract and the bulge in the distribution “moved up” until, in many
places, we have begun to see something closer to an inverted pyramid emerging – an age structure
unlike any we have ever seen before, in which the largest cohorts are the oldest.
Yet the implications of this change for social progress and prosperity are not set in stone: they
depend greatly on the policy choices we make. That is why the OECD’s Regional Development Policy
Committee has begun to devote increasing attention to the consequences of demographic change for
cities and regions. This OECD Territorial Review follows a recent study of ageing in cities that looks
at policy responses at the local level.
Japan is working to design an integrated, long-term approach to population ageing and
demographic decline, aligning spatial and sectoral policies to strengthen productivity growth and
ensure a sustainable long-term settlement pattern. It seeks to seize the opportunities offered by
demographic change, as well as to address the problems it creates. The new National Spatial strategy
adopted in 2015 is central to this effort.
While it is too early to judge the long-term impact of this strategy, we do find grounds for
optimism: the economic analysis confirms that Japanese cities function well, generating comparatively
strong agglomeration benefits, though better horizontal co-operation among the municipalities
in metropolitan areas could enhance these benefits substantially. Japan’s rural areas, despite
their difficulties, actually outperform most of their OECD peers and are in many cases pioneering
revitalisation strategies based on local assets and potentials. At all levels from the national to the
local, public- and private-sector actors are devising innovative and often place-based solutions.
Many of these are likely to be of great interest and relevance to the many OECD countries facing
similar challenges.
OECD TERRITORIAl REvIEwS: JAPAN © OECD 2016 3
ACkNOwlEDGEmENTS
Acknowledgements
T
he OECD Secretariat is grateful for the co-operation and support of the numerous
Japanese officials, experts and businesspeople who met the OECD team preparing the
review and in other ways participated in the review process. The Secretariat is particularly
grateful to the ministry of land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism for its informational,
financial and logistical support, as well as its deep engagement with the OECD Review
team at all stages in the process.
The OECD Territorial Review of Japan was produced by the Regional Development
Policy Division of the OECD’s Public Governance and Territorial Development Directorate,
headed by Joaquim Oliveira martins. This report was prepared by william Tompson, Emiko
Araki, Jose Enrique Garcilazo and Tadashi matsumoto. Important analytical inputs into
the review were received from Alexander lembcke and Johannes weber of the OECD,
Andre Comandon of UClA, Andrew Dewit of Rikkyo University, mikitaro Shobayashi of
Gakushuin women’s College, and Izumi Yokoyama of Hitotsubashi University. Thanks are
due to Rüdiger Ahrend and karen maguire of the OECD for their helpful comments on the
first draft of the Review. The Secretariat is also grateful for the excellent inputs received
from the two peer reviewers, Sabrina lucatelli of Italy and michel Ruffin of France. kate
lancaster provided editorial support, and Ulrike Chaplar and Pilar Philip prepared the
manuscript for publication.
4 OECD TERRITORIAl REvIEwS: JAPAN © OECD 2016
Table of conTenTs
Table of contents
Acronyms and abbreviations 9
Executive summary 11
Assessment and recommendations 15
Chapter 1. Japan’s demographic transition and the productivity challenge 29
overview 30
The demographic context 31
The consequences of demographic change 40
The economic context 43
inter-regional disparities and living standards 50
Trends in regional economic performance 54
The economic policy response to demographic change 58
The spatial consequences of Japan’s restructuring challenge 66
notes 71
bibliography 73
Chapter 2. Long-term vision, planning and governance in Japan 77
The national spatial strategy 79
a new government headquarters 88
Governance, decentralisation and revitalisation 92
inter-governmental revenue sharing and grant allocation 101
pathways for reforming inter-governmental transfers 107
infrastructure policy 114
The future of local public corporations 120
notes 123
bibliography 125
Chapter 3. Building competitive and liveable metropolitan areas in Japan 131
Japan’s urban system 132
Trends in economic performance 137
The evolution of the urban system 148
environmental performance of Japanese metropolitan areas 153
The global competitiveness of Japan’s metropolitan areas 158
The future of Tokyo 161
The maglev project and the formation of a Tokyo-osaka-nagoya mega-region 166
The 2020 olympics 175
social policy for large cities 181
oecD TerriTorial reviews: Japan © oecD 2016 5
Table of conTenTs
notes 183
bibliography 185
Chapter 4. Policies to ensure Japan’s regional and rural revitalisation 191
The evolution of Japanese revitalisation policies 192
economic conditions and trends in performance 195
policies for regional revitalisation 198
agricultural policies and rural development 209
policies for geographically challenged regions 227
policies for downsizing cities 230
notes 243
bibliography 245
Tables
1 1 possible consequences of demographic change 41
1 2 performance and dispersion on regional well-being indicators in Japan 52
1 3 GDp growth by type of region: Japan and the oecD 58
2 1 instruments for compact and networked places 81
2 2 composition of the local allocation Tax revenues, 1999-2016 102
2 3 calculation of the local allocation Tax 107
2 4 indicators of infrastructure ageing 118
2 5 burden of roads and public buildings by size of municipality 118
3 1 advantages and disadvantages of high urban densities 150
3 2 Targets for earthquake-resistant buildings 158
4 1 indicative guidance for vehicle choice related to demand 239
Figures
1 1 Japanese population and age structure, 1950-2050 31
1 2 longevity and fertility in Japan 32
1 3 share of foreign-born residents in total population, 2010 33
1 4 elderly population and total population in oecD countries,
1995 and 2012, % 33
1 5 population estimates and projections by age group, 1950-2100 34
1 6 population change by prefecture, average annual growth, 1970-2010 36
1 7 initial population density and population change, 1990-2012 37
1 8 ageing indicators for Japanese prefectures 38
1 9 elderly dependency rates, 2012 39
1 10 Gross domestic product per capita 44
1 11 Growth of labour productivity, 1995-2013 44
1 12 Decomposition of real GDp growth for selected oecD countries, 1999-2011 45
1 13 The potential impact of female employment on labour supply 46
1 14 fertility and female labour supply, Japanese prefectures, 2011 49
1 15 Gini index of GDp per capita across Tl3 regions, 1995 and 2010 51
1 16 GDp per capita in predominantly urban and rural regions relative
to the national average 51
1 17 co and no emissions, oecD Tl3 regions 53
2 2
1 18 exposure to pM in oecD Tl2 regions 54
2 5
6 oecD TerriTorial reviews: Japan © oecD 2016
Table of conTenTs
1 19 Trends in relative GDp per capita by prefecture, 2001-10 55
1 20 Decomposition of GDp growth by prefecture, 2000-10 55
1 21 contributions to growth by prefecture, 1995-2010 56
1 22 Growth contributions of the main metropolitan areas 57
1 23 GDp and labour productivity by prefecture, 2001-10 57
1 24 female labour force participation and the fertility rate 61
1 25 regional patterns of co-patenting 66
1 26 city-size distribution in Japan 69
2 1 formulation of the national spatial strategy 88
2 2 The structure of territorial governance 93
2 3 subnational government revenue expenditure and debt:
Japan and the oecD 97
2 4 allocation of spending responsibility by function 97
2 5 subnational government investment in oecD countries, 2013 98
2 6 composition of subnational government revenues, fY 2012 99
2 7 Tax revenue per capita by prefecture 100
2 8 breakdown of Japanese municipalities’ revenues, 2014 100
2 9 public works expenditure, 1978-2014 115
2 10 local public corporations and lpc employment by sector of activity, 2013 121
3 1 functional urban areas in Japan with populations above 50 000 134
3 2 Distribution of population by size of fUa, selected oecD countries, 2012 135
3 3 population densities in oecD metropolitan areas 135
3 4 fUa size and population growth 136
3 5 concentration of population, GDp and employment in oecD
metropolitan areas, 2010 137
3 6 initial GDp share and contribution to growth, 2001-10 138
3 7 GDp per capita, 2012 139
3 8 Trends in GDp per capita: Metropolitan and non-metropolitan Japan 140
3 9 GDp growth, aggregate and per capita rates, 2001-10 140
3 10 fUa/non-fUa unemployment gaps, 2000-12 141
3 11 countries ranked by variation in unemployment rates across
metropolitan areas 141
3 12 contributions to employment growth, 2001-12 142
3 13 evolution of the productivity gap: Japanese fUas relative to the national
average, 2001-12 143
3 14 estimated agglomeration benefits across cities in three oecD countries 144
3 15 Governance fragmentation and performance 146
3 16 patent intensity, selected oecD countries and their metropolitan
areas, 2008 147
3 17 patent intensity of Japanese metropolitan areas, 2008 147
3 18 size and density of densely inhabited districts of prefectural capitals 148
3 19 fastest spatial expansion observed among oecD metropolitan areas
with population growth under 1% per annum (2000-06) 149
3 20 fertility and concentration of population in high-density areas 151
3 21 co emissions per capita, oecD metropolitan areas 154
2
3 22 Major sources of per capita co emissions in Japanese metropolitan
2
areas, 2008 154
oecD TerriTorial reviews: Japan © oecD 2016 7
Table of conTenTs
3 23 exposure to particulate matter, oecD metropolitan areas 155
3 24 availability of green space in oecD metropolitan areas 156
3 25 share of married women in the workforce, in 2010 (%) 182
4 1 GDp per capita in predominantly rural regions, 2012 196
4 2 output per worker in predominantly rural regions 196
4 3 change in real GDp per capita 2001-12, predominantly rural oecD regions 197
4 4 labour market performance: rural regions in Japan and the oecD 197
4 5 agricultural hamlets grouped by driving time to a city 210
4 6 Hamlets managing rivers and irrigation infrastructure 211
4 7 share of agri-environmental payments in total direct payments
to agriculture 214
4 8 The consequences of urban population decline 232
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