Oecd Information Technology Outlook 2000: Icts, e-Commerce and the Information Economy

250 Pages·2000·3.451 MB·English

by  OECD

«
INFORMATION SOCIETY
OECD Information Technology Outlook OECD Information
ICTs, E-COMMERCE AND THE INFORMATION ECONOMY Technology Outlook
Information technology (IT) is significantly affecting the economy, the growth and structure of output,
occupations and employment and how people use their time. The Information Technology
Outlook 2000 describes the rapid growth in the supply and demand for information technology ICTs, E-COMMERCE
goods and services and their role in the expanding Internet economy, and looks at emerging uses of
AND THE INFORMATION ECONOMY
information technology. It reflects the spread and diversity of a technology that is underpinning
economic and social transformation. It makes use of the new official national sources of data which
are becoming available as statistical mapping of the information economy improves.
More specifically, the Information Technology Outlook 2000 addresses:
• The importance of information and communication technologies (ICT) in national economies,
their drivers and impacts (Chapter 1).
INFORMATION SOCIETY
• The development of information technology markets, market structure and market dynamics,
and the drivers of market expansion (Chapter 2).
• Links between the use of information technologies (notably PCs) and developments in network
infrastructure and the potential uptake of electronic commerce and other applications which
use enhanced computing and network capabilities (Chapter 3).
• The increasing ubiquity of electronic payments and the issues surrounding trust with respect to
various payment methods (Chapter 4).
• OECD countries’ policies for testing new electronic financial transaction technologies and increa- O
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sing their rate of diffusion to complement private sector technology development (Chapter 5). C
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• India, as an example of the strategies of non-OECD countries for developing a viable software
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industry (Chapter 6). n
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• Characteristics, uses and development of intelligent agent technologies as tools to exploit the r
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enormous amount of commercial and non-commercial information available on the Internet a
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(Chapter 7). i
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• The development and growth of global navigation systems that make possible increasingly precise
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geographical location and their incorporation in the global information infrastructure (Chapter 8). e
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• The development and likely pattern of uptake of the less cumbersome and more portable flat n
panel display technologies that underpin broad-based applications requiring digital display and o
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interactive access (Chapter 9). g
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• Statistical profiles of the development of the information economy in 12 OECD countries, along
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with a summary of national policies underpinning the development of the information economy. u
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National IT policy profiles are available at the following: 2
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http://www.oecd.org/dsti/sti/it/prod/it-out2000-e.htm 0
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2000 2000
ISBN 92-64-17185-1
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OECD Information
Technology
Outlook 2000
ICTs, E-commerce
and the Information Economy
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION
AND DEVELOPMENT
Pursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in Paris on 14th December 1960, and which came into
force on 30th September 1961, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
shall promote policies designed:
– to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a rising standard of
living in Member countries, while maintaining financial stability, and thus to contribute to the
development of the world economy;
– to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as well as non-member countries in the
process of economic development; and
– to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in
accordance with international obligations.
The original Member countries of the OECD are Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France,
Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain,
Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The following countries
became Members subsequently through accession at the dates indicated hereafter: Japan
(28thApril1964), Finland (28th January 1969), Australia (7th June 1971), New Zealand (29th May 1973),
Mexico (18th May 1994), the Czech Republic (21st December 1995), Hungary (7th May 1996), Poland
(22ndNovember 1996) and Korea (12th December 1996). The Commission of the European Communities
takes part in the work of the OECD (Article 13 of the OECD Convention).
Publié en français sous le titre:
PERSPECTIVES DES TECHNOLOGIES DE L’INFORMATION DE L’OCDE 2000
TIC, commerce électronique et économie de l’information
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FOREWORD
The Information Technology Outlook 2000 has been prepared by the OECD under the guidance of the
OECD Committee for Information, Computer and Communications Policy (ICCP), and in particular its Wor-
king Party on the Information Economy. It is the fifth in a biennial series designed to provide Member
countries with a broad overview of trends and prospects in the information technology (IT) industry, an
analysis of the growing impact of IT on the economy and society, new developments in selected areas of
information technology, and a description of IT policy directions.
Building on the1997 edition, the 2000 edition further extends the economic and policy analysis. The
first three chapters provide an overview of the growing importance of information and communication
technologies (ICTs) in national economies, describe recent market dynamics and examine the links
between the use of ICTs and the potential uptake of electronic commerce. The next two chapters highlight
the increasing use of electronic payments and describe OECD countries’ policies for promoting the use
of such systems. The set of four special chapters cover various issues relating to “ubiquitous computing”
and current issues and developments such as the growth of the software industry in India; intelligent
agents for the Internet; Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS); and flat panel displays. Annex1 pro-
vides for the first time statistical profiles of selected OECD countries using data from official sources.
Information technology policy profiles are posted separately on the OECD Web site to enable their
widespread diffusion (http://www.oecd.org/dsti/sti/it/prod/it-out2000-e.htm).
The IT Outlook 2000 was prepared by Graham Vickery, Vladimir López-Bassols, Pierre Montagnier and
Masahiro Katsuno of the OECD’s Information, Computer and Communications Policy Division and
Bénédicte Callan of the Science and Technology Policy Division, with contributions from other experts. It
has benefited from valuable contributions from Delegates to the ICCP Committee’s Working Party on the
Information Economy, under the chairmanship of Mr. Jostein Håøy (Norway), particularly regarding natio-
nal IT policy developments and up-to-date national statistics on the production and use of IT goods and
services.
The report is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Highlights.............................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Part I
Analysis and Indicators
Chapter 1. Information Technology and the Economy................................................................................................... 23
The ICT sector and the economy................................................................................................................................ 23
The IT industry: a firm-level view............................................................................................................................... 37
Main drivers of ICT growth.......................................................................................................................................... 48
Contribution of IT to economic growth...................................................................................................................... 54
Conclusion..................................................................................................................................................................... 55
References............................................................................................................................................................................ 56
Chapter 2. Information Technology Markets................................................................................................................... 59
The OECD IT market: an overview............................................................................................................................. 59
Hardware....................................................................................................................................................................... 60
Packaged software........................................................................................................................................................ 67
Services.......................................................................................................................................................................... 70
The United States’ IT market profile.......................................................................................................................... 70
IT markets: latest developments................................................................................................................................ 75
Notes..................................................................................................................................................................................... 76
Chapter 3. E-commerce “Readiness”................................................................................................................................ 77
Infrastructure................................................................................................................................................................. 78
Installed base/diffusion............................................................................................................................................... 82
Human resources.......................................................................................................................................................... 88
Conclusion..................................................................................................................................................................... 91
Notes..................................................................................................................................................................................... 92
References............................................................................................................................................................................ 95
Part II
IT Policy Special Focus – Electronic Financial Transactions
Chapter 4. Overview of Issues in Electronic Settlement of Payments......................................................................... 99
Issues pertaining to electronic settlement of payments......................................................................................... 100
Current landscape of electronic financial settlements............................................................................................ 102
Emerging issues............................................................................................................................................................ 112
Notes..................................................................................................................................................................................... 113 5
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Chapter 5. Policies to Promote Electronic Financial Transactions............................................................................. 115
General country approach........................................................................................................................................... 115
Development/demonstration/testing of technologies............................................................................................ 117
Creating demand for electronic financial transactions............................................................................................ 121
Policy lessons................................................................................................................................................................ 126
Notes..................................................................................................................................................................................... 128
Part III
Current Issues and Developments
Chapter 6. Software Development in Non-member Economies: The Indian Case................................................... 131
Background and evolution of Indian software firms................................................................................................ 132
Characteristics of the Indian software industry........................................................................................................ 135
An international comparison of performance........................................................................................................... 144
Conclusion..................................................................................................................................................................... 145
Notes..................................................................................................................................................................................... 148
References............................................................................................................................................................................ 149
Chapter 7. Agent Technologies for the Internet............................................................................................................. 151
About intelligent agents.............................................................................................................................................. 151
Applications.................................................................................................................................................................. 153
Intelligent shopping agents........................................................................................................................................ 153
Technological issues.................................................................................................................................................... 158
Economic, legal and policy issues............................................................................................................................. 160
Conclusion..................................................................................................................................................................... 162
Appendix 1. Selected Intelligent Agents Available on the Internet................................................................................ 163
Appendix 2. Selected Intelligent Agent Web Sites, Papers.............................................................................................. 165
Notes..................................................................................................................................................................................... 166
Chapter 8. Global Navigation Satellite Systems and the IT Infrastructure............................................................... 167
What is the Global Navigation Satellite System?.................................................................................................... 170
Commercial applications of GNSS............................................................................................................................. 175
The stakes and the competition................................................................................................................................. 179
National differences in GNSS markets...................................................................................................................... 182
National policies.......................................................................................................................................................... 184
Policy challenges at the international level.............................................................................................................. 186
Conclusion..................................................................................................................................................................... 190
Notes..................................................................................................................................................................................... 191
References............................................................................................................................................................................ 192
Chapter 9. Patterns of Future Use of Flat Panel Displays............................................................................................. 193
Flat panel display markets and applications........................................................................................................... 194
Industry analysis........................................................................................................................................................... 203
Conclusion..................................................................................................................................................................... 207
Annex 1. Statistical profiles............................................................................................................................................... 209
Australia................................................................................................................................................................................ 210
Canada.................................................................................................................................................................................. 214
Denmark............................................................................................................................................................................... 218
Finland.................................................................................................................................................................................. 222
France................................................................................................................................................................................... 226
Italy........................................................................................................................................................................................ 229
Japan..................................................................................................................................................................................... 232
Norway.................................................................................................................................................................................. 235
6 Portugal................................................................................................................................................................................ 238
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Sweden................................................................................................................................................................................. 240
United Kingdom.................................................................................................................................................................. 243
United States....................................................................................................................................................................... 245
Annex 2. Definitions and Methodology............................................................................................................................ 249
Notes..................................................................................................................................................................................... 256
List of Tables
Chapter 1
1. Value added in ICT industries as a percentage of GDP, 1980-97 (or latest available year)................................ 24
2. World production of ICT goods, 1997......................................................................................................................... 24
3. OECD trade in computer equipment by partner country/region, 1990 and 1998................................................. 27
4. OECD trade in communication equipment by partner country/region, 1990 and 1998....................................... 27
5. OECD trade in components by partner country/region, 1990 and 1998................................................................ 28
6. OECD trade in software goods by partner country/region, 1998............................................................................ 29
7. Software goods: leading exporting and importing countries, 1998........................................................................ 29
8. Trade in computer and communications services, 1998.......................................................................................... 31
9. ICT goods: leading exporting and importing countries, 1990-98............................................................................ 32
10. Top 50 IT firms............................................................................................................................................................... 38
11. Major European IT firms............................................................................................................................................... 40
12. R&D as a percentage of total revenue for 20 of the top 25 IT firms and R&D growth, 1994-98........................... 42
13. Value added in manufacturing and services as a percentage of GDP in selected OECD countries/regions,
1985 and 1996................................................................................................................................................................ 48
14. Share of ICT sectors in total business enterprise expenditure on R&D (BERD), 1997........................................ 48
15. Selected R&D-intensive ICT firms, 1998.................................................................................................................... 49
Chapter 2
1. IT market in selected OECD countries, 1990 and 1997.............................................................................................. 61
2. Worldwide PC shipments by destination, 1993-98..................................................................................................... 63
Chapter 3
1. Electronic commerce: main policy areas..................................................................................................................... 77
2. Estimated number of worldwide Web sites, 1997-99................................................................................................. 80
3. Access technologies........................................................................................................................................................ 81
4. Diffusion of PCs and the Internet in households in selected OECD countries....................................................... 83
5. Use of cashless payment instruments in selected OECD countries, 1993 and 1997.............................................. 85
6. Salary growth for IT and other occupations in the United States, 1988-97.............................................................. 89
Appendix Tables
1. Cellular mobile subscribers per 100 inhabitants, 1997-98......................................................................................... 93
2. Internet users as a percentage of the total population in selected OECD countries
and non-member economies, 1998.............................................................................................................................. 94
Chapter 4
1. Some numbers on electronic money/purse schemes................................................................................................ 108
2. Penetration of electronic banking in selected countries........................................................................................... 109
3. Cost comparison of paper-based and online transactions........................................................................................ 110
Chapter 5
1. Summary of ECOM projects involving SET.................................................................................................................. 120
Chapter 6
1. The Indian software industry: exports, domestic and total revenue..................................................................... 131
2. The Indian software industry: employment and revenue/employee.................................................................... 132
3. Market share by revenue and number of employees, 1997.................................................................................... 133
4. Top eight Indian IT exporting firms............................................................................................................................ 134
5. Revenue of the 405 NASSCOM member firms by geographic region, 1997.......................................................... 135
6. Domestic Indian software industry by type of project, 1997-98.......................................................................................... 135
7. Leading IT MNCs in India by revenue........................................................................................................................ 136 7
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8. Composition of India’s software exports, 1996-97.................................................................................................... 137
9. Destination of exports, 1997........................................................................................................................................ 137
10. Percentage of offshore exports based on software development in India........................................................... 138
11. Industrial domain of final product market, 1997....................................................................................................... 139
12. Hardware platform capability claimed by Indian software firms, 1997.................................................................. 139
13. Development platform (OS) capability claimed by Indian software firms, 1997.................................................. 139
14. Quality certification – top 250 firms............................................................................................................................ 140
15. Salaries of software professionals in the United States and India, 1997............................................................... 140
16. The software industry in Israel: exports and total revenue..................................................................................... 144
Chapter 8
1. GNSS market size estimates......................................................................................................................................... 176
2. GNSS industry applications.......................................................................................................................................... 177
3. ITS benefits which include GPS.................................................................................................................................... 180
4. GNSS bandwidths........................................................................................................................................................... 187
Chapter 9
1. Worldwide electronic display component market, 1999 and 2005........................................................................... 197
List of Figures
Chapter 1
1. Breakdown of worldwide ICT production by region, 1997....................................................................................... 25
2. OECD trade in ICT goods, 1990-98.............................................................................................................................. 26
3. Employment trends in 14 OECD countries............................................................................................................... 33
4. Breakdown of worldwide ICT markets by country/region, 1992 and 1997............................................................. 33
5. Breakdown of worldwide ICT markets by segment, 1992 and 1997........................................................................ 34
6. ICT expenditures as a percentage of GDP in major OECD zones, 1992-97........................................................... 35
7. ICT expenditures as a percentage of GDP, 1997....................................................................................................... 36
8. ICT markets in selected non-member economies, 1992 and 1997......................................................................... 37
9. Total revenues for the top 50 firms by primary IT function..................................................................................... 39
10. Revenues for the top 50 firms by segment and by country of headquarters, 1998.............................................. 39
11. Revenue and employment in the top 50 IT firms by geographical area, 1998..................................................... 40
12. Revenue breakdown of the world’s largest IT firms by domestic and foreign revenue, 1998............................ 41
13. Breakdown of sales by segment and revenue source, 1998.................................................................................... 42
14. Employees and revenue per employee by geographical zone for the top 50 IT firms, 1994-98........................ 43
15. Revenue growth per employee from 1996 to 1998 for selected IT companies..................................................... 44
16. North American acquisitions and IPOs in the IT, communications and media sectors........................................ 45
17. Mergers and acquisitions by sector in Europe and North America, 1997 and 1998............................................. 46
18. European mergers and acquisitions in 1998............................................................................................................. 46
19. R&D intensity in ICT and other industries (selected OECD countries, 1997 or latest available year).............. 49
20. R&D growth in selected service industries and total manufacturing, 1990-97...................................................... 50
21. Patenting in manufacturing and ICT-goods sectors, 1975-96................................................................................... 50
22. US consumer price index for selected ICT equipment and services, 1997-99...................................................... 51
23. Internet access costs and Internet host density, 1999............................................................................................. 52
24. Venture capital investment in ICT sectors in the United States, 1995-98............................................................. 53
25. Investments in ICT companies in Europe, 1994-98.................................................................................................. 54
Chapter 2
1. Breakdown of OECD ICT and IT markets, 1997......................................................................................................... 59
2. OECD IT market by region/country, 1990-97.............................................................................................................. 60
3. OECD IT market by segment, 1990-97........................................................................................................................ 62
4. Contribution of high-end servers, data communication equipment, and PC workstations
to total OECD area hardware spending, 1990-97...................................................................................................... 62
5. Average PC installed base per 100 inhabitants ans share in the home and education in the OECD area,
1992 and 1997................................................................................................................................................................ 64
6. PCs per 100 white-collar workers in selected OECD countries, end 1997............................................................. 65
7. Producer price indices for computer hardware in the United States, 1992-99..................................................... 66
8a. World semiconductor market by segment, 1990-98................................................................................................. 66
8 8b. World semiconductor market by region, 1990-98..................................................................................................... 67
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9. Final use of semiconductor production, 1990-98...................................................................................................... 68
10. Packaged software markets, 1990-97.......................................................................................................................... 69
11. IT services markets, 1990-97........................................................................................................................................ 71
12. Contribution of the US IT segments to the growth of total OECD IT market, 1992-97......................................... 72
13. US IT market by segment, 1990 and 1997.................................................................................................................. 72
14. US IT spending by industry, 1997............................................................................................................................... 73
15. Relative IT intensity index by industry in the United States, 1997........................................................................ 74
Chapter 3
1. Maturity of e-commerce markets................................................................................................................................ 78
2. Internet hosts per 1 000 inhabitants, July 1999......................................................................................................... 79
3. Number of secure Web servers per million inhabitants.......................................................................................... 80
4. Breakdown of worldwide Internet users by region, September 1999.................................................................... 82
5. Access to PCs and Internet in households, early 1999............................................................................................. 84
6. Percentage of employees using e-commerce-enabling technologies................................................................... 84
7. PC penetration by household income in selected OECD countries, 1995 and 1998........................................... 86
8. Canadian households regularly using a computer by educational level of the head of household,
1997 and 1998................................................................................................................................................................ 86
9. Adults accessing the Internet in Australia by age, 1998 and 1999.......................................................................... 87
10. Percentage of households in Finland with access to PCs and the Internet according to household size,
1996 and 1998................................................................................................................................................................ 87
11. IT workers and IT-enabled workers............................................................................................................................. 88
12. Unemployment rates of IT and other workers in the United States, 1988-98....................................................... 89
13. Expected annual demand for IT workers ans sources of supply in the United States........................................ 90
Chapter 4
1. Scope of the analysis...................................................................................................................................................... 99
2. Penetration of cash dispensers..................................................................................................................................... 103
3. ATM usage........................................................................................................................................................................ 103
4. Share of card payments in total non-cash transactions............................................................................................. 104
5. Share of cheque payments in total non-cash transactions........................................................................................ 105
6. Share of credit transfers in total non-cash transactions............................................................................................. 106
7. Share of direct debits in total non-cash transactions................................................................................................. 106
8. Breakdown of US banks’ electronic banking services................................................................................................ 109
Chapter 8
1. GNSS timeline................................................................................................................................................................. 168
2. The three GNSS segments............................................................................................................................................. 172
3. Estimated world GPS market, 2003............................................................................................................................... 182
4. Share of GPS firms by region......................................................................................................................................... 183
Chapter 9
1. Breakdown of top applications for FPDs by value, 1997-2005.................................................................................. 197
2. Breakdown of portable computer LCDs by screen size, 1997-2005......................................................................... 198
3. Breakdown of desktop monitor LCDs by screen size, 1997-2005............................................................................. 198
4. Large LCD panel prices, 1997-2005............................................................................................................................... 199
5. LCD information capacity, 1991-99................................................................................................................................ 199
6. Worldwide LCD market shares (value) by firm, 1998................................................................................................. 204
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