OECD-FAO agricultural outlook 20.2014/23

329 Pages·2014·4.254 MB·English

by  OECD

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023 2
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The twentieth OECD edition of the Agricultural Outlook, and the tenth prepared jointly with the Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), provides projections to 2023 for major agricultural
commodities, biofuels and fi sh. Notable in the 2014 report is a special feature on India. OECD-FAO
Strong demand is expected to keep commodity prices fi rm, but below recent peaks, with a recovery
in stocks leading to a reduced risk of price volatility. India, home to the world’s second largest population, and
Agricultural Outlook
the largest in terms of number of farmers and rural population, is projected to sustain the production
and consumption growth of recent years, offering potential to reduce considerably its number of food insecure
people.
2014-2023
Contents
Executive summary
Chapter 1. Overview of the OECD-FAO Outlook 2014-2023
Chapter 2. Feeding India: Prospects and challenges in the next decade
Chapter 3. Biofuels
Chapter 4. Cereals
Chapter 5. Oilseeds and oilseed products
Chapter 6. Sugar
Chapter 7. Meat
Chapter 8. Fish and seafood
Chapter 9. Dairy
Chapter 10. Cotton
Methodology
Statistical Annex
The projections and past trends are presented in the statistical annex and can be viewed in more detail at
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en. O
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Supplementary information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org. F
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Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2014-en. 0
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This work is published on the OECD iLibrary, which gathers all OECD books, periodicals and statistical databases.
Visit www.oecd-ilibrary.org for more information.
2014
ISBN 978-92-64-21089-9
9HSTCQE*cbaijj+
51 2014 04 1 P

OECD-FAO
Agricultural Outlook
2014-2023
ThisworkispublishedundertheresponsibilityoftheSecretary-GeneraloftheOECDand
theDirector-GeneralofFAO.Theviewsexpressedandconclusionsreachedinthisreportdo
notnecessarilycorrespondtothoseofthegovernmentsofOECDmembercountries,orthe
governmentsoftheFAOmembercountries.
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or
sovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundaries
andtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.
Pleasecitethispublicationas:
OECD/FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(2014),OECD-FAOAgriculturalOutlook
2014,OECDPublishing.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2014-en
ISBN978-9264-21089-9(print)
ISBN978-92642-1174-2(PDF)
Annual:OECD-FAOAgriculturalOutlook
ISSN1563-0447(print)
ISSN1999-1142(online)
FAO:
ISBN978-92-5-108397-0(print)
E-ISBN978-92-5-108398-7(PDF)
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FOREWORD
Foreword
T
heAgriculturalOutlook,2014-2023,isacollaborativeeffortoftheOrganisationforEconomic
Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the
UnitedNations.Itbringstogetherthecommodity,policyandcountryexpertiseofbothorganisations
andinputfromcollaboratingmembercountriestoprovideanannualassessmentofprospectsforthe
comingdecadeofnational,regionalandglobalagriculturalcommoditymarkets.Thespecialfeature
on India has been prepared in collaboration with analysts associated with the National Council of
AppliedEconomicResearch(NCAER),theDepartmentofAgricultureandCooperation,theMinistry
ofAgricultureoftheGovernmentofIndiaandtheFAORepresentationinIndia.However,OECDand
FAOareresponsiblefortheinformationandprojectionscontainedinthisdocument,andtheviews
expresseddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseofIndianinstitutions.
Thebaselineprojectionisnotaforecastaboutthefuture,butratheraplausiblescenariobased
on specific assumptions regarding the macroeconomic conditions, the agriculture and trade policy
settings, weather conditions, longer term productivity trends and international market
developments.Theprojectionsofproduction,consumption,stocks,tradeandpricesforthedifferent
agricultural products described and analysed in this report cover the years 2014 to 2023. The
evolution of markets over the outlook period is typically described using annual growth rates or
percentagechangesforthefinalyear2023relativetoathree-yearbaseperiodof2011-13.
The individual commodity projections are subject to critical examination by experts from
national institutions in collaborating countries and international commodity organisations prior to
their finalisation and publication in this report. The risks and uncertainties around the baseline
projectionsareexaminedthroughanumberofpossiblealternativescenariosandstochasticanalysis,
whichillustratehowmarketoutcomesmaydifferfromthedeterministicbaselineprojections.
Thefullydocumentedoutlookdatabase,includinghistoricaldataandprojections,isavailable
throughtheOECD-FAOjointinternetsitewww.agri-outlook.org.
OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2014©OECD/FAO2014 3
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Acknowledgements
T
hisAgriculturalOutlookisjointlypreparedbytheOECDandFAOSecretariats.
AttheOECD,thebaselineprojectionsandOutlookreportwerepreparedbymembersof
the Agro-Food Trade and Markets Division of the Trade and Agriculture Directorate:
AnneliesDeuss, ArmelleElasri (publication coordinator), HubertusGay, CélineGiner,
GaëlleGouarin,YukakoInamura,WayneJones(DivisionHead),PeteLiapis,IraMatuschke,
ClaudeNenert, KokiOkawa, IgnacioPérezDomínguez, GrahamPilgrim, RaedSafadi
(Deputy Director), Garry Smith and GrégoireTallard (Outlook coordinator). The OECD
SecretariatisgratefulforthecontributionsprovidedbyconsultantsPierreCharleboisand
MerrittCluff, staff loans XuLei (China),YunusPoyraz (Turkey), and StephenMacDonald
(United States Department of Agriculture), MichelPrud’Homme from the International
Fertilizer Association and AntonioCarlosKfouriAidar and FelipeSerigati from Fundação
Getulio Vargas (FGV). Additional materials were contributed by JonathanBrooks,
Mitsuhiro Inamura, Andrzej Kwiecinski, and Ronald Steenblik (OECD). Meetings
organisation and document preparation were provided by ChristineCameron.Technical
assistanceinthepreparationoftheOutlookdatabasewasprovidedbyEricEspinasseand
FranoIlicic. Many other colleagues in the OECD Secretariat and member country
delegations furnished useful comments on earlier drafts of the report.The report has
benefited from an in-depth review by KenAsh (Director) and CarmelCahill (Senior
Counsellor).
At the FAO, the team of economists and commodity officers from the Trade and
MarketsDivisioncontributingtothiseditionconsistedofAbdolrezaAbbassian,ElMamoun
Amrouk, Pedro Arias, Boubaker BenBelhassen (EST Principal Officer), Franck Cachia,
Concepcion Calpe, Emily Carroll (publication coordinator), Marco Colangeli, Cheng Fang,
Michael Griffin,Yasmine Iqbal, David Hallam (EST Division Director), Hideki Kanamaru,
Tatsuji Koizumi, Holger Matthey (Team Leader), Jamie Morrison, Shirley Mustafa, Masato
Nakane, Jean Senahoun, Shangnan Shui, Timothy Sulser and Peter Thoenes. Marcel
Adenäuer from Bonn University and Tracy Davids from the Bureau for Food and
AgriculturalPolicyattheUniversityofPretoriajoinedtheteamasconsultants.AudunLem
andStefaniaVannuccinicontributedfromtheFisheriesandAquacultureDepartment,with
technical support from PierreCharlebois. Research assistance and database preparation
were provided by Claudio Cerquiglini, Barbara Ferraioli, Berardina Forzinetti, Emanuele
Marocco, Patrizia Masciana, and Marco Milo. Several other colleagues from FAO and
membercountryinstitutionsimprovedthisreportthroughvaluabledetailsandcomments.
From FAO’s Publishing Group, Rachel Tucker and Yongdong Fu provided invaluable
assistance.
Chapter2oftheOutlook“FeedingIndia:Prospectsandchallengesinthenextdecade”
waswritteninclosecollaborationbetweenIndiancolleaguesandtheSecretariatsatOECD
and FAO with support from MerrittCluff and IraMatuschke. From the FAO Permanent
4 OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2014©OECD/FAO2014
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Representation in India, BhaskarGoswami provided extensive input and assistance in
drafting the chapter, and PeterKenmore provided valuable guidance.Their contribution
was facilitated by an on-going cooperation with the Department for International
Development (DFID) in the United Kingdom. ShashankaBhide andAyyapasoreGovindan
fromtheNationalCouncilofAppliedEconomicResearchcontributedextensiveinputand
assistancewithdataandadvice.BadriSinghBhandarifromtheDepartmentofEconomics
and Statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture, and Parmod Kumar from the Institute for
Social and Economic Change devoted a week in Paris to assist in forming the projections
andcommentingontheanalysis.DraftsfromSatishChander,DirectorGeneral,andTapan
KumarChanda of the Fertilizer Association of India formed the basis for Box2.4 on the
fertiliser industry of India. AshimaGoya of the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development
ResearchinMumbaicontributeddraftsforinputtoBox2.3onmacroeconomicchallenges,
which were supplemented with assistance by IsabelleJoumard of OECDs Economics
Department.TheworkbenefitedfromthesupportofSanjeevChopra,JointSecretaryatthe
MinistryofAgriculture.
The European Commission provided the stochastic analysis of the baseline results.
This work was performed by the Agrilife Unit of the Joint Research Centre (JRC-IPTS in
Seville). The contributors to this section were Sergio René Araujo-Enciso and Marco
Artavia,withinputsfromAlisonBurrell,ZebedeeNii-NaateandFabienSantini.
Finally, the valuable information and feedback provided by the International Cotton
Advisory Committee, International Dairy Federation, International Fishmeal and Fish Oil
Organisation, International Grains Council, and International Sugar Organization is
gratefullyacknowledged.
OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2014©OECD/FAO2014 5

TABLEOFCONTENTS
Table of contents
Acronymsandabbreviations................................................. 13
Executivesummary......................................................... 17
Chapter1.OverviewoftheOECD-FAOOutlook2014-2023......................... 21
Introduction............................................................ 22
Thesetting:Turbulentagriculturalmarketsatthestartoftheoutlookperiod.... 22
Consumption:Globalconsumptioncontinuestoincreasebutataslowerrate... 30
Production:Thedevelopingworldremainstheepicentreofmostagricultural
productiongrowth ...................................................... 33
Trade:TheAmericasdominateexports,whileChinadrivesimportgrowthinAsia. 44
Prices:Globalsupplyanddemandprojectionspointtoslowlydecliningrealprices 49
Uncertaintyanalysis..................................................... 55
References ............................................................. 61
Chapter2.FeedingIndia:prospectsandchallengesinthenextdecade ............ 63
Introduction............................................................ 64
TheperformanceofIndia’sagriculture..................................... 65
Progress,butalargefoodinsecurityproblemremains........................ 68
India’sagriculturalresourcesarelarge ..................................... 71
Productivitygrowthhasbeenkeytoincreasedproduction.................... 73
India’stradesurplusinagriculturalcommoditiescontinuestogrow ........... 74
Agriculturalpolicy ...................................................... 76
TheoutlookforIndia’sagriculturalsector .................................. 80
ThecommodityoutlookforIndia,2014-23.................................. 90
Risksanduncertainties.................................................. 102
Conclusions............................................................ 105
Notes.................................................................. 106
References ............................................................. 106
Chapter3.Biofuels........................................................... 109
Marketsituation........................................................ 110
Projectionhighlights .................................................... 110
Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 111
Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 123
Notes.................................................................. 125
Chapter4.Cereals ........................................................... 127
Marketsituation........................................................ 128
Projectionhighlights .................................................... 128
Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 129
OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2014©OECD/FAO2014 7
TABLEOFCONTENTS
Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 143
Notes.................................................................. 143
References ............................................................. 143
Chapter5.Oilseedsandoilseedproducts....................................... 145
Marketsituation........................................................ 146
Projectionhighlights .................................................... 146
Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 147
Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 153
Notes.................................................................. 156
Reference.............................................................. 156
Chapter6.Sugar............................................................. 157
Marketsituation........................................................ 158
Projectionhighlights .................................................... 158
Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 160
Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 171
Chapter7.Meat ............................................................. 173
Marketsituation........................................................ 174
Projectionhighlights .................................................... 175
Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 176
Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 186
References ............................................................. 188
Chapter8.Fishandseafood .................................................. 189
Marketsituation........................................................ 190
Projectionhighlights .................................................... 190
Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 191
Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 200
Notes.................................................................. 203
References ............................................................. 203
Chapter9.Dairy............................................................. 205
Marketsituation........................................................ 206
Projectionhighlights .................................................... 206
Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 207
Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 214
Reference.............................................................. 215
Chapter10.Cotton........................................................... 217
Marketsituation........................................................ 218
Projectionhighlights .................................................... 218
Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 219
Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 226
Glossaryofterms........................................................... 229
Methodology............................................................... 241
StatisticalAnnex ........................................................... 249
8 OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2014©OECD/FAO2014