OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 (Volume 2017)

142 Pages·2017·5.77 MB·English

by  Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

OECD‑FAO Agricultural
Outlook 2017‑2026
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OECD-FAO
Agricultural Outlook
2017-2026
This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD and the
Director-General of the FAO.The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not
necessarily reflect the official views of OECD member countries, or the governments of the FAO
membercountries.
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Thedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialinthisinformationproductdonot
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Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal or development status of any country,
territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or
boundaries.
ThenamesofcountriesandterritoriesusedinthisjointpublicationfollowthepracticeoftheFAO.
Pleasecitethispublicationas:
OECD/FAO(2017),OECD-FAOAgriculturalOutlook2017-2026,OECDPublishing,Paris.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2017-en
ISBN978-92-64-27547-8(print)
ISBN978-92-64-27550-8(PDF)
ISBN978-92-64-27548-5(epub)
Series:OECD-FAOAgriculturalOutlook
ISSN1563-0447(print)
ISSN1999-1142(online)
FAO
ISBN978-92-5-109808-0
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FOREWORD
Foreword
T
hefoodandagriculturesectorisfacedwithacriticalglobalchallenge:toensureaccesstosafe,
healthy,andnutritiousfoodforagrowingworldpopulation,whileatthesametimeusingnatural
resourcesmoresustainablyandmakinganeffectivecontributiontoclimatechangeadaptationand
mitigation. Through this annual collaboration and other studies, the Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations (FAO) are working together to provide information, analysis and advice, to help
governmentsachievetheseessentialobjectives.
This is the 13th joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook. It provides ten-year
projections to 2026 for the major agricultural commodities, as well as for biofuels and fish. The
pooling of market and policy information from experts in a wide range of participating countries
providesabenchmarknecessaryforassessingtheopportunitiesandthreatstothesector.Thisyear’s
Agricultural Outlook includes a special focus on SoutheastAsia, a region where agriculture and
fisherieshavedevelopedrapidlyandundernourishmenthasbeensignificantlydecreased,butalsoa
regionthatisonthefrontlineoftheeffectsofclimatechangeandwheretherearerisingpressures
onnaturalresources.
TheAgriculturalOutlookcomesinthecontextofawidersetofinternationaleffortstoaddressfood
securityandagriculturalissues.Twoglobalinitiativesstandout:
● The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set ambitious targets to be achieved by 2030.
Among these, the first goal is to end poverty in all its forms everywhere, while the second goal
pledges to end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable
agriculture.Thetwogoalsarerelatedasmorethanthree-quartersoftheworld’spoordependon
agriculturenotonlyfortheirfood,butalsofortheirlivelihoods.
● UndertheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange’s2015ParisAgreement,195
countrieshavecommittedtotakeactiontocontaintheincreaseinglobalaveragetemperaturesto
well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Climate change poses a threat to sustainable food
production,butagriculture,whichaccountsformorethanafifthofallgreenhousegasemissions,
canbeanactivepartofthesolution
TheAgriculturalOutlooksupportstheseglobalinitiativesbyprovidingabenchmarkagainstwhich
to assess the implications of alternative policies that seek to increase the availability of food
sustainably while mitigating greenhouse-gas emissions. Such policies include both supply-side
measures, such as measures for increasing sustainable productivity growth in agriculture, and
demand-sidemeasuresforencouragingthereductionofwasteandoverconsumption.
TheOECDandFAOareworkingacrosstheboardtosupporttheglobalefforttoeradicatepovertyand
tackleclimatechange.In2016,AgricultureMinistersconvenedatboththeOECDandFAOinorder
to chart directions for future policies that can meet these commitments. At the OECD meeting,
Ministers stressed that policies must promote the resilience, as well as the productivity and
sustainability of the agriculture and food sector and rural communities.They also recognised that
OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2017-2026©OECD/FAO2017 3
FOREWORD
achievingthosesharedgoalswillrequiresustainedinternationalco-operation.AttheFAOmeeting,
whichalsoinvolvedTradeMinisters,theyunderlinedtheimportanceofagriculturalcommoditiesfor
growthindevelopingandlessdevelopedcountriesandcautionedabouttherisksposedbyclimate
change.Theyalsostressedtheimportanceofmarkettransparencyandpolicypredictability,aswell
astherolethattradecanplayinadaptingtoclimatechange.
Because the areas of projected food demand growth differ from the areas where supply can be
increasedsustainably,internationaltradewilltakeonparticularimportanceintheattainmentofthe
SDGs, as well as in adapting to and mitigating climate change. The 11th WTO Ministerial
Conference,tobeheldinBuenosAiresinDecemberofthisyear,willundoubtedlybeguidedbythe
need to ensure the agricultural sector makes these global contributions effectively, while also
addressingspecificfood-securityconcernsindevelopingcountries.
Foodsecurityandagriculturalissueshavereceivedspecificattentionininternationalforasuchasthe
G20 and the G7. A significant initiative was the G20’s Agricultural Market Information System
(AMIS),whichishousedattheFAOandtowhichtheOECDandotherinternationalorganisations
contribute.Withfoodpricesnowclosertolong-termtrendlevels,itisimportantthatthestructural
issues that remain are not neglected. Moreover, food markets are inherently volatile, and today’s
relativestabilityisnoreasonforcomplacency.
Morethanever,wemustallworktogethertoimprovethesustainabilityoffoodsystemsandensure
global food security and healthy nutrition. We hope that our collaborative effort on the annual
productionofthisreportwillcontinuetoprovidegovernmentsandallotherstakeholderswithakey
element of the information they need to reach the goals set in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
DevelopmentandtheParisAgreement
AngelGurría, JoséGrazianodaSilva,
Secretary-General Director-General
OrganisationforEconomic FoodandAgricultureOrganization
Co-operationandDevelopment oftheUnitedNations
4 OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2017-2026©OECD/FAO2017
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Acknowledgements
T
The Agricultural Outlook, 2017-2026, is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and
countryexpertiseofbothorganisationsandinputfromcollaboratingmembercountriesto
provideanannualassessmentofprospectsforthecomingdecadeofnational,regionaland
globalagriculturalcommoditymarkets.Thebaselineprojectionisnotaforecastaboutthe
future, but rather a plausible scenario based on specific assumptions regarding
macroeconomic conditions, agriculture and trade policy settings, weather conditions,
longertermproductivitytrendsandinternationalmarketdevelopments.
TheAgriculturalOutlookisjointlypreparedbytheOECDandFAOSecretariats.
AttheOECD,thebaselineprojectionsandOutlookreportwerepreparedbymembersof
the Trade and Agriculture Directorate: Marcel Adenäuer, Jonathan Brooks (Head of
Division), Koen Deconinck, AnneliesDeuss, ArmelleElasri (publication co-ordinator),
GenFuruhashi, HubertusGay (Outlook co-ordinator), CélineGiner, GaëlleGouarin,
ClaudeNenert, GrahamPilgrim and GrégoireTallard of theAgro-FoodTrade and Markets
Division, and for fish and seafood by James Innes and Antonia Leroy of the Natural
ResourcesPolicyDivision.TheOECDSecretariatisgratefulforthecontributionsprovided
byvisitingexpertsAshwinaAubeeluck(AgricultureandAgri-FoodCanada),andSiZhizhi
(ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences).Theorganisationofmeetingsandpublication
preparation were provided by HelenMaguire and Michèle Patterson.Technical assistance
inthepreparationoftheOutlookdatabasewasprovidedbyEricEspinasseandFranoIlicic.
ManyothercolleaguesintheOECDSecretariatandmembercountrydelegationsprovided
usefulcommentsonearlierdraftsofthereport.
AttheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations,theprojectionswere
preparedbyeconomistsandcommodityofficersfromtheTradeandMarketsDivision(EST)
under the leadership of Boubaker Ben-Belhassen (EST Division Director) and Josef
Schmidhuber(ESTDivisionDeputyDirector)withtheoverallguidanceofKostasStamoulis
(Assistant Director-General, Economic and Social Development Department).The core
projectionsteamconsistedofElMamounAmrouk,SergioRenéAraujoEnciso,PedroArias,
Eduard Bukin, Emily Carroll, Merritt Cluff, Hannah Fried,Yasmine Iqbal, Holger Matthey
(TeamLeader)andJorgeSogueroEscuer.CommodityexpertisewasprovidedbyAbdolreza
Abbassian, PauloAugusto Lourenço Dias Nunes, Michael Griffin, Shirley Mustafa, Adam
Prakash, PeterThoenes, G.A. UpaliWickramasinghe and DiYang. Input on special topics
and boxes was provided by Katinka de Balogh, Matthew Burnett,Wantanee Kalpravidh,
Ekaterina Krivonos, Pascal Liu, Juan Lubroth and Francesco N.Tubiello.We thank visiting
expertTracy Davids from the Bureau for Food andAgricultural Policy at the University of
Pretoria. Stefania Vannuccini from the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department
contributed,withtechnicalsupportfromPierreCharlebois.Adviceonfishmealandfishoil
OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2017-2026©OECD/FAO2017 5
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
issues was provided by Enrico Bachis from the Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO).
ResearchassistanceanddatabasepreparationwereprovidedbyClaudioCerquiglini,Julie
Claro, Emanuele Marocco and Marco Milo. Jiyeon Chang provided valuable input into the
draftingoftheoverviewchapter.Thiseditionalsobenefitedfromcommentsmadebyother
colleaguesfromFAOandmembercountryinstitutionsandwascloselyreviewedbyGünter
Hemrich, Michelle Kendrick, Anna Lartey, Regina Laub, José Rosero Moncayo, Marco
SánchezCantillo,RobVosandNataliaWinderRossi.FAO’sJamesEdge,YongdongFu,Pedro
Javaloyes, Jessica Mathewson, Raffaella Rucci and Juan Luis Salazar provided invaluable
assistancewithpublicationandcommunicationissues.
Chapter2oftheOutlook,“SoutheastAsia:Prospectsandchallenges”,waspreparedby
theSecretariatsatFAOandOECDledbyJaredGreenvilleoftheDevelopmentDivisionofthe
Trade andAgriculture Directorate and Merritt Cluff. Contribution in OECD besides before
mentionedmembersoftheTradeandAgriculturalDirectoratewasprovidedinformofthe
boxon“ThepotentialroleofagricultureinthefuturedevelopmentofMyanmar”byMartha
BaxteroftheOECDDevelopmentCentre.InputfromFAOonspecialtopicsandboxeswas
provided by Sumiter Broca, Fang Cheng, Cristina Coslet, David Dawe, Aziz Elbehri and
ShirleyMustafa.
Finally, information and feedback provided by the International Cotton Advisory
Committee, International Dairy Federation, International Grains Council, International
SugarOrganization,MarineIngredientsOrganisation(IFFO)andWorldAssociationofBeet
andCaneGrowersisgratefullyacknowledged.
The complete Agricultural Outlook, including more detailed commodity chapters, the
fullstatisticalannexandfullydocumentedOutlookdatabase,includinghistoricaldataand
projections,canbeaccessedthroughtheOECD-FAOjointinternetsite:www.agri-outlook.org.
The published Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 report provides: an overview of global
agriculture and prospects; an in-depth analysis of the outlook for Southeast Asian
agriculture and a consideration of some of the challenges facing the sector; and short
snapshots for each commodity with associated statistical tables. The more detailed
commodity chapters and an extended statistical annex are contained in the OECD’s
iLibraryversionofthereport.
6 OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2017-2026©OECD/FAO2017
TABLEOFCONTENTS
Table of contents
Acronymsandabbreviations................................................. 11
ExecutiveSummary......................................................... 15
Chapter1.OverviewoftheAgriculturalOutlook2017-2026........................ 17
Thesetting:Recordproductionlevelsandabundantstocksledtocontinued
pricedecreasesin2016 .................................................. 18
Summaryofmacroeconomicconditionsandpolicyassumptions.............. 18
Consumption........................................................... 21
Production............................................................. 34
Trade.................................................................. 41
Prices.................................................................. 48
Risksanduncertainties.................................................. 53
Notes.................................................................. 57
References ............................................................. 57
Chapter2.SoutheastAsia:Prospectsandchallenges ............................ 59
Introduction............................................................ 60
DevelopmentsinagricultureandfisheriesinSoutheastAsia.................. 61
Medium-termoutlook ................................................... 82
Notes.................................................................. 96
References ............................................................. 96
Chapter3.Commoditysnapshots ............................................. 101
Cereals ................................................................ 102
Oilseedsandoilseedproducts ............................................ 104
Sugar.................................................................. 107
Meat .................................................................. 110
Dairyanddairyproducts................................................. 113
Fishandseafood........................................................ 116
Biofuels................................................................ 119
Cotton................................................................. 122
Annex:Commoditysnapshottables ...................................... 125
MoredetailedcommoditychaptersaswellastheGlossary,MethodologyandStatistical
Annexareavailableonlineathttp://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2017-en
OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2017-2026©OECD/FAO2017 7
TABLEOFCONTENTS
Tables
2.1. ContextualindicatorsforselectedcountriesinSoutheastAsia,2015........ 61
2.2. Self-sufficiencytargetsofASEANmembers ............................. 78
3.A1.1. Worldcerealprojections.............................................. 126
3.A1.2. Worldoilseedprojections ............................................ 128
3.A1.3. Worldsugarprojections .............................................. 130
3.A1.4. Worldmeatprojections............................................... 131
3.A1.5. Worlddairyprojections:Butterandcheese.............................. 132
3.A1.6. Worlddairyprojections:Powdersandcasein ............................ 133
3.A1.7. Worldfishandseafoodprojections..................................... 134
3.A1.8. Worldbiofuelprojections ............................................. 136
3.A1.9. Worldcottonprojections.............................................. 137
Figures
1.1. Currentmarketconditionsforkeycommodities ......................... 19
1.2. Annualgrowthinconsumptionforkeycommoditygroups,2007-16and2017-26 22
1.3. Regionalsharesincommodityconsumptiongrowth,2016-26 ............. 23
1.4. Fish:Regionalsharesindemandgrowthandpercapitafoodconsumption .... 24
1.5. Pigmeat:Regionalsharesindemandgrowthandpercapitafoodconsumption . 25
1.6. Beefandveal:Regionalsharesindemandgrowthandpercapitafood
consumption ....................................................... 26
1.7. Poultry:Regionalsharesindemandgrowthandpercapitafoodconsumption .. 27
1.8. Freshdairyproducts:Regionalsharesindemandgrowthandpercapitafood
consumption ....................................................... 27
1.9. Percapitafoodconsumptionofmeatandfishin2026 .................... 28
1.10. Percapitafooduseofcerealsin2026................................... 29
1.11. Percapitacalorieavailabilitybyfoodcategory ........................... 30
1.12. Percapitaproteinavailabilitybyfoodcategory........................... 30
1.13. Feed:Regionalsharesindemandgrowthandtotaluse ................... 31
1.14. Growthinbiofuelproduction,2000-26 ................................. 32
1.15. Growthindemandformaize(left)andvegetableoil(right),byuse ......... 34
1.16. Increaseinmaizeproductionduetoareaexpansionandyieldgrowth,2016-26 . 35
1.17. Trendsofgloballanduseofagriculture................................. 36
1.18. Averageannualcroplandchangeforselectedcountries .................. 37
1.19. MaizeyieldsintheUnitedStatesandglobally ........................... 37
1.20. Milkproductioninselectedcountries .................................. 38
1.21. Meatproduction,bytypeandcountry.................................. 40
1.22. Fishproduction ..................................................... 40
1.23. Growthintradevolumesbycommodity ................................ 41
1.24. Evolutionoftradevolumeformerchandisetradeandagriculturaltrade..... 42
1.25. Impactonagro-foodtradeofpolicies,reformsanddrifts.................. 44
1.26. Shareofproductiontraded............................................ 44
1.27. Shareofproductiontradedforselectedcommodities..................... 45
1.28. ImportsasshareofdomesticcerealsdemandinselectedMiddleEastern
andAfricancountries ................................................ 46
1.29. Exportsharesofthetop5exportersin2026,bycommodity ............... 46
1.30. Importsharesoftop5importersin2026,bycommodity .................. 48
1.31. Medium-termevolutionofcommoditypricesinrealterms................ 49
8 OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2017-2026©OECD/FAO2017