OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023 - Food and Agriculture PDF
Preview OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023 - Food and Agriculture
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023 2 0 1 4 The twentieth OECD edition of the Agricultural Outlook, and the tenth prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), provides projections to 2023 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fi sh. Notable in the 2014 report is a special feature on India. OECD-FAO Strong demand is expected to keep commodity prices fi rm, but below recent peaks, with a recovery in stocks leading to a reduced risk of price volatility. India, home to the world’s second largest population, and Agricultural Outlook the largest in terms of number of farmers and rural population, is projected to sustain the production and consumption growth of recent years, offering potential to reduce considerably its number of food insecure people. 2014-2023 Contents Executive summary Chapter 1. Overview of the OECD-FAO Outlook 2014-2023 Chapter 2. Feeding India: Prospects and challenges in the next decade Chapter 3. Biofuels Chapter 4. Cereals Chapter 5. Oilseeds and oilseed products Chapter 6. Sugar Chapter 7. Meat Chapter 8. Fish and seafood Chapter 9. Dairy Chapter 10. Cotton Methodology Statistical Annex The projections and past trends are presented in the statistical annex and can be viewed in more detail at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en. O E C D - Supplementary information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org. F A O A g r ic u lt u r a l O u t lo o k 2 0 1 4 - 2 Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2014-en. 0 2 3 This work is published on the OECD iLibrary, which gathers all OECD books, periodicals and statistical databases. Visit www.oecd-ilibrary.org for more information. 2014 ISBN 978-92-64-21089-9 9HSTCQE*cbaijj+ 51 2014 04 1 P OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023 ThisworkispublishedundertheresponsibilityoftheSecretary-GeneraloftheOECD.The opinionsexpressedandargumentsemployedhereindonotnecessarilyreflecttheofficial viewsofOECDmembercountries. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundaries andtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea. Pleasecitethispublicationas: OECD/FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(2014),OECD-FAOAgriculturalOutlook 2014,OECDPublishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2014-en ISBN978-9264-21089-9(print) ISBN978-92642-1174-2(PDF) Annual:OECD-FAOAgriculturalOutlook: ISSN1563-0447(print) ISSN1999-1142(online) FAO: ISBN978-92-5-108397-0(print) E-ISBN978-92-5-108398-7(PDF) ThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityofthe relevantIsraeliauthorities.Theuse ofsuchdatabytheOECDiswithoutprejudicetothestatusoftheGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraeli settlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofinternationallaw. ThepositionoftheUnitedNationsonthequestionofJerusalemiscontainedinGeneralAssemblyResolution181(II) of29November1947,andsubsequentresolutionsoftheGeneralAssemblyandtheSecurityCouncilconcerningthis question. Photo credits: Cover © withGod/Shutterstock.com; © D. Donovan; © Ekkachai/Shutterstock.com; © baibaz/ Shutterstuck.com;©TukaramKarve/Shutterstock.com;©monticello/Shutterstock.com;©simpleman/Shutterstock.com. CorrigendatoOECDpublicationsmaybefoundonlineat:www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm. ©OECD/FAO2014 Youcancopy,downloadorprintOECDcontentforyourownuse,andyoucanincludeexcerptsfromOECDpublications,databasesand multimediaproductsinyourowndocuments,presentations,blogs,websitesandteachingmaterials,providedthatsuitable acknowledgementofOECDandFAOassourceandcopyrightownerisgiven.Allrequestsforpublicorcommercialuseandtranslation rightsshouldbesubmittedtorights@oecd.org.Requestsforpermissiontophotocopyportionsofthismaterialforpublicorcommercial useshallbeaddresseddirectlytotheCopyrightClearanceCenter(CCC)[email protected]çaisd'exploitationdu droitdecopie(CFC)[email protected]. FOREWORD Foreword T heAgriculturalOutlook,2014-2023,isacollaborativeeffortoftheOrganisationforEconomic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UnitedNations.Itbringstogetherthecommodity,policyandcountryexpertiseofbothorganisations andinputfromcollaboratingmembercountriestoprovideanannualassessmentofprospectsforthe comingdecadeofnational,regionalandglobalagriculturalcommoditymarkets.Thespecialfeature on India has been prepared in collaboration with analysts associated with the National Council of AppliedEconomicResearch(NCAER),theDepartmentofAgricultureandCooperation,theMinistry ofAgricultureoftheGovernmentofIndiaandtheFAORepresentationinIndia.However,OECDand FAOareresponsiblefortheinformationandprojectionscontainedinthisdocument,andtheviews expresseddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseofIndianinstitutions. Thebaselineprojectionisnotaforecastaboutthefuture,butratheraplausiblescenariobased on specific assumptions regarding the macroeconomic conditions, the agriculture and trade policy settings, weather conditions, longer term productivity trends and international market developments.Theprojectionsofproduction,consumption,stocks,tradeandpricesforthedifferent agricultural products described and analysed in this report cover the years 2014 to 2023. The evolution of markets over the outlook period is typically described using annual growth rates or percentagechangesforthefinalyear2023relativetoathree-yearbaseperiodof2011-13. The individual commodity projections are subject to critical examination by experts from national institutions in collaborating countries and international commodity organisations prior to their finalisation and publication in this report. The risks and uncertainties around the baseline projectionsareexaminedthroughanumberofpossiblealternativescenariosandstochasticanalysis, whichillustratehowmarketoutcomesmaydifferfromthedeterministicbaselineprojections. Thefullydocumentedoutlookdatabase,includinghistoricaldataandprojections,isavailable throughtheOECD-FAOjointinternetsitewww.agri-outlook.org. OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2014©OECD/FAO2014 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Acknowledgements T hisAgriculturalOutlookisjointlypreparedbytheOECDandFAOSecretariats. AttheOECD,thebaselineprojectionsandOutlookreportwerepreparedbymembersof the Agro-Food Trade and Markets Division of the Trade and Agriculture Directorate: AnneliesDeuss, ArmelleElasri (publication coordinator), HubertusGay, CélineGiner, GaëlleGouarin,YukakoInamura,WayneJones(DivisionHead),PeteLiapis,IraMatuschke, ClaudeNenert, KokiOkawa, IgnacioPérezDomínguez, GrahamPilgrim, RaedSafadi (Deputy Director), Garry Smith and GrégoireTallard (Outlook coordinator). The OECD SecretariatisgratefulforthecontributionsprovidedbyconsultantsPierreCharleboisand MerrittCluff, staff loans XuLei (China),YunusPoyraz (Turkey), and StephenMacDonald (United States Department of Agriculture), MichelPrud’Homme from the International Fertilizer Association and AntonioCarlosKfouriAidar and FelipeSerigati from Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV). Additional materials were contributed by JonathanBrooks, Mitsuhiro Inamura, Andrzej Kwiecinski, and Ronald Steenblik (OECD). Meetings organisation and document preparation were provided by ChristineCameron.Technical assistanceinthepreparationoftheOutlookdatabasewasprovidedbyEricEspinasseand FranoIlicic. Many other colleagues in the OECD Secretariat and member country delegations furnished useful comments on earlier drafts of the report.The report has benefited from an in-depth review by KenAsh (Director) and CarmelCahill (Senior Counsellor). At the FAO, the team of economists and commodity officers from the Trade and MarketsDivisioncontributingtothiseditionconsistedofAbdolrezaAbbassian,ElMamoun Amrouk, Pedro Arias, Boubaker BenBelhassen (EST Principal Officer), Franck Cachia, Concepcion Calpe, Emily Carroll (publication coordinator), Marco Colangeli, Cheng Fang, Michael Griffin,Yasmine Iqbal, David Hallam (EST Division Director), Hideki Kanamaru, Tatsuji Koizumi, Holger Matthey (Team Leader), Jamie Morrison, Shirley Mustafa, Masato Nakane, Jean Senahoun, Shangnan Shui, Timothy Sulser and Peter Thoenes. Marcel Adenäuer from Bonn University and Tracy Davids from the Bureau for Food and AgriculturalPolicyattheUniversityofPretoriajoinedtheteamasconsultants.AudunLem andStefaniaVannuccinicontributedfromtheFisheriesandAquacultureDepartment,with technical support from PierreCharlebois. Research assistance and database preparation were provided by Claudio Cerquiglini, Barbara Ferraioli, Berardina Forzinetti, Emanuele Marocco, Patrizia Masciana, and Marco Milo. Several other colleagues from FAO and membercountryinstitutionsimprovedthisreportthroughvaluabledetailsandcomments. From FAO’s Publishing Group, Rachel Tucker and Yongdong Fu provided invaluable assistance. Chapter2oftheOutlook“FeedingIndia:Prospectsandchallengesinthenextdecade” waswritteninclosecollaborationbetweenIndiancolleaguesandtheSecretariatsatOECD and FAO with support from MerrittCluff and IraMatuschke. From the FAO Permanent 4 OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2014©OECD/FAO2014 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Representation in India, BhaskarGoswami provided extensive input and assistance in drafting the chapter, and PeterKenmore provided valuable guidance.Their contribution was facilitated by an on-going cooperation with the Department for International Development (DFID) in the United Kingdom. ShashankaBhide andAyyapasoreGovindan fromtheNationalCouncilofAppliedEconomicResearchcontributedextensiveinputand assistancewithdataandadvice.BadriSinghBhandarifromtheDepartmentofEconomics and Statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture, and Parmod Kumar from the Institute for Social and Economic Change devoted a week in Paris to assist in forming the projections andcommentingontheanalysis.DraftsfromSatishChander,DirectorGeneral,andTapan KumarChanda of the Fertilizer Association of India formed the basis for Box2.4 on the fertiliser industry of India. AshimaGoya of the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development ResearchinMumbaicontributeddraftsforinputtoBox2.3onmacroeconomicchallenges, which were supplemented with assistance by IsabelleJoumard of OECDs Economics Department.TheworkbenefitedfromthesupportofSanjeevChopra,JointSecretaryatthe MinistryofAgriculture. The European Commission provided the stochastic analysis of the baseline results. This work was performed by the Agrilife Unit of the Joint Research Centre (JRC-IPTS in Seville). The contributors to this section were Sergio René Araujo-Enciso and Marco Artavia,withinputsfromAlisonBurrell,ZebedeeNii-NaateandFabienSantini. Finally, the valuable information and feedback provided by the International Cotton Advisory Committee, International Dairy Federation, International Fishmeal and Fish Oil Organisation, International Grains Council, and International Sugar Organization is gratefullyacknowledged. OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2014©OECD/FAO2014 5 TABLEOFCONTENTS Table of contents Acronymsandabbreviations................................................. 13 Executivesummary......................................................... 17 Chapter1.OverviewoftheOECD-FAOOutlook2014-2023......................... 21 Introduction............................................................ 22 Thesetting:Turbulentagriculturalmarketsatthestartoftheoutlookperiod.... 22 Consumption:Globalconsumptioncontinuestoincreasebutataslowerrate... 30 Production:Thedevelopingworldremainstheepicentreofmostagricultural productiongrowth ...................................................... 33 Trade:TheAmericasdominateexports,whileChinadrivesimportgrowthinAsia. 44 Prices:Globalsupplyanddemandprojectionspointtoslowlydecliningrealprices 49 Uncertaintyanalysis..................................................... 55 References ............................................................. 61 Chapter2.FeedingIndia:prospectsandchallengesinthenextdecade ............ 63 Introduction............................................................ 64 TheperformanceofIndia’sagriculture..................................... 65 Progress,butalargefoodinsecurityproblemremains........................ 68 India’sagriculturalresourcesarelarge ..................................... 71 Productivitygrowthhasbeenkeytoincreasedproduction.................... 73 India’stradesurplusinagriculturalcommoditiescontinuestogrow ........... 74 Agriculturalpolicy ...................................................... 76 TheoutlookforIndia’sagriculturalsector .................................. 80 ThecommodityoutlookforIndia,2014-23.................................. 90 Risksanduncertainties.................................................. 102 Conclusions............................................................ 105 Notes.................................................................. 106 References ............................................................. 106 Chapter3.Biofuels........................................................... 109 Marketsituation........................................................ 110 Projectionhighlights .................................................... 110 Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 111 Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 123 Notes.................................................................. 125 Chapter4.Cereals ........................................................... 127 Marketsituation........................................................ 128 Projectionhighlights .................................................... 128 Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 129 OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2014©OECD/FAO2014 7 TABLEOFCONTENTS Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 143 Notes.................................................................. 143 References ............................................................. 143 Chapter5.Oilseedsandoilseedproducts....................................... 145 Marketsituation........................................................ 146 Projectionhighlights .................................................... 146 Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 147 Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 153 Notes.................................................................. 156 Reference.............................................................. 156 Chapter6.Sugar............................................................. 157 Marketsituation........................................................ 158 Projectionhighlights .................................................... 158 Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 160 Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 171 Chapter7.Meat ............................................................. 173 Marketsituation........................................................ 174 Projectionhighlights .................................................... 175 Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 176 Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 186 References ............................................................. 188 Chapter8.Fishandseafood .................................................. 189 Marketsituation........................................................ 190 Projectionhighlights .................................................... 190 Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 191 Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 200 Notes.................................................................. 203 References ............................................................. 203 Chapter9.Dairy............................................................. 205 Marketsituation........................................................ 206 Projectionhighlights .................................................... 206 Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 207 Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 214 Reference.............................................................. 215 Chapter10.Cotton........................................................... 217 Marketsituation........................................................ 218 Projectionhighlights .................................................... 218 Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 219 Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 226 Glossaryofterms........................................................... 229 Methodology............................................................... 241 StatisticalAnnex ........................................................... 249 8 OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2014©OECD/FAO2014 TABLEOFCONTENTS Tables 1.1. Thelargesttradedeficitsinvolumetermsin2023willoccurinAsiaandAfrica 45 1.2. GrangerCausalitytests............................................... 54 1.3. Uncertaintyofworldproduction,consumptionandtradeofdairyproducts, byscenario ......................................................... 60 2.1. GrowthofagricultureinIndiaincreasedinthelastdecade................ 66 2.2. ShareofagriculturallabourandcultivatorsinpopulationinIndia.......... 71 2.3. Indexesofmarketconnection(IMC) ................................... 76 3.1. Simulationofgasoholandhydrousethanolpricesbasedontheharvest datafor2012/13 ..................................................... 115 3.2. Pricesimulationpresupposingthatpetrolhadfullyaccompaniedoilprice variationsandtheBrazilianexchangerate.............................. 116 4.1. Breadwastestatistics ................................................ 137 4.2. Productionandpricechangesofcommoditiesrequiringfeedsin2023based onthecounterfactualscenario ........................................ 138 4.3. Policyscenariosandsimulationresultsforriceunderclimatechange conditions.......................................................... 142 6.1. EUsugarmarketeffectsofcontinuingproductionquotasfrom2013to2023 . 167 Figures 1.1. KoreaandTurkeyexpectedtoexhibitthestrongestGDPgrowthinOECD.... 25 1.2. Consumerfoodpriceinflationlowerindevelopedcountries............... 27 1.3. Consumerfoodpriceinflation:Selectedcountries........................ 28 1.4. Consumerpriceinflationfollowschangesinprimarycommodityprices .... 29 1.5. Realconsumerpricesarerising........................................ 29 1.6. Growingdiversityofcropuse.......................................... 31 1.7. Mostofthegrowthinmeatandfishconsumptionwilloccurindeveloping countries........................................................... 32 1.8. Productionofcropsrising............................................. 34 1.9. Higherlivestockproduction........................................... 35 1.10. USammoniacapacity................................................ 37 1.11. Growthinarablecropareaandyield ................................... 39 1.12. Valueofnet-exportspositiveinAmericas,OceaniaandEastEurope ........ 44 1.13. Skimmilkpowderandpoultrytoshowlargestgrowthovertheoutlookperiod . 48 1.14. Pricetrendsinnominaltermsforagriculturalcommoditiesto2023 ........ 51 1.15. Inrealterms,pricesforlivestock,dairyandethanolarehigherthanin thepreviousdecade.................................................. 52 1.16. Uncertaintyaroundtheworldcoarsegrainprice......................... 56 1.17. Uncertaintyintheworldwheatmarketin2023byscenario ............... 57 1.18. Comparinguncertaintybycommoditiesinworldtrade(exports)in2023 byscenario ......................................................... 58 1.19. UncertaintyinAustralia,NewZealandandworldmilkproductionin2023 byscenario ......................................................... 59 1.20. Uncertaintyofworldmarketpricesin2023byscenario................... 59 2.1. Agriculture’sshareofnationalemploymentremainslargeinIndia......... 65 2.2. ProductionofmajoragriculturalproductsinIndia ....................... 67 2.3. UndernourishmentinIndia .......................................... 69 2.4. EstimateddailycalorieandproteinintakebyfooditeminIndia,2009 ...... 70 OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2014©OECD/FAO2014 9
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