OECD-FAO agricultural outlook 2013-2022 PDF
Preview OECD-FAO agricultural outlook 2013-2022
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022 2 0 1 3 The nineteenth OECD edition of the Agricultural Outlook, and the ninth prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), provides projections to 2022 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. Notable in the 2013 report is the inclusion of cotton for the first time and a OECD-FAO special feature on China. Higher costs and strong demand are expected to keep commodity prices well above historical averages with a Agricultural Outlook high risk of price volatility given tight stocks, a changeable policy environment and increasing weather-related production risks. China is projected to maintain its self-sufficiency in certain key food commodities while increasing its trade and integration in world agricultural markets. 2013-2022 Contents Executive summary Chapter 1. Overview of the OECD-FAO Outlook 2013-2022 Chapter 2. Feeding China: Prospects and challenges in the next decade Chapter 3. Biofuels Chapter 4. Cereals Chapter 5. Oilseeds and oilseed products Chapter 6. Sugar Chapter 7. Meat Chapter 8. Fish and seafood Chapter 9. Dairy Chapter 10. Cotton Glossary of terms Methodology Statistical Annex The projections and past trends are presented in the statistical annex and can be viewed in more detail at O E http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en. C D Supplementary information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org. -F A O A g r ic u lt u r a l O u t lo o k 2 0 1 3 - 2 Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2013-en. 0 2 2 This work is published on the OECD iLibrary, which gathers all OECD books, periodicals and statistical databases. Visit www.oecd-ilibrary.org for more information. 2013 isbn 978-92-64-19419-9 -:HSTCQE=V^YV^^: 51 2013 04 1 P OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022 FOODANDAGRICULTUREORGANIZATION OFTHEUNITEDNATIONS ThisworkispublishedundertheresponsibilityoftheSecretary-GeneraloftheOECDand theDirector-GeneralofFAO.Theviewsexpressedandconclusionsreachedinthisreportdo notnecessarilycorrespondtothoseofthegovernmentsofOECDmembercountries,orthe governmentsoftheFAOmembercountries. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundaries andtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea. Pleasecitethispublicationas: OECD/FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(2013),OECD-FAOAgricultural Outlook2013,OECDPublishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2013-en ISBN978-92-64-19419-9(print) ISBN978-92-64-19422-9(PDF) Annual:OECD-FAOAgriculturalOutlook ISSN1563-0447(print) ISSN1999-1142(online) FAO: ISBN978-92-5-107694-1(Print) e-ISBN978-92-5-107695-8(PDF) ThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityofthe relevantIsraeliauthorities.Theuse ofsuchdatabytheOECDiswithoutprejudicetothestatusoftheGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraeli settlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofinternationallaw. Photocredits: Coverillustrations ©iStockphoto.com/RussellBurns ©Zoonar/Thinkstock ©iStockphoto/Thinkstock CorrigendatoOECDpublicationsmaybefoundonlineat:www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda. ©OECD/FAO2013 Youcancopy,downloadorprintOECDcontentforyourownuse,andyoucanincludeexcerptsfromOECDpublications,databasesand multimediaproductsinyourowndocuments,presentations,blogs,websitesandteachingmaterials,providedthatsuitable acknowledgmentofOECDandFAOassourceandcopyrightownerisgiven.Allrequestsforpublicorcommercialuseandtranslation rightsshouldbesubmittedtorights@oecd.org.Requestsforpermissiontophotocopyportionsofthismaterialforpublicorcommercial useshallbeaddresseddirectlytotheCopyrightClearanceCenter(CCC)[email protected]çaisd'exploitationdu droitdecopie(CFC)[email protected]. FOREWORD Foreword T he Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UnitedNations.Itbringstogetherthecommodity,policyandcountryexpertiseofbothorganisations andinputfromcollaboratingmembercountriestoprovideanannualassessmentofprospectsforthe comingdecadeofnational,regionalandglobalagriculturalcommoditymarkets.Thisyear’sedition contains for the first time a chapter on world cotton markets. Chapter2 has been prepared with assistancefromtheAgriculturalInformationInstitute(AII)oftheChineseAcademyofAgricultural SciencesandtheMinistryofAgriculture(MoA)oftheGovernmentofChina.However,responsibility fortheinformationandprojectionscontainedinthisdocumentremainthoseoftheOECDandFAO, anddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheAIIoroftheMoA. The baseline projection is not a forecast about the future, but rather a plausible scenario elaborated on the basis of specific assumptions regarding the macroeconomic conditions, the agriculture and trade policy settings, weather conditions, longer term productivity trends and international market developments.The projections of production, consumption, stocks, trade and prices for the different agricultural products described and analysed in this report cover the years 2013 to 2022. The evolution of markets over the outlook period is typically described using the annualgrowthrateorpercentagechangesforthefinalyear2022relativetoathree-yearbaseperiod of2010-12. The individual commodity projections are subject to critical examination by national country experts of OECD, other collaborating countries and industry experts prior to their finalisation and publicationinthisreport.Therisksanduncertaintiesaroundthebaselineprojectionsareexamined through a number of possible alternative scenarios and stochastic analysis, which illustrate how marketoutcomesmaydifferfromthedeterministicbaselineprojections. Thefullydocumentedoutlookdatabase,includinghistoricaldataandprojections,isavailable throughtheOECD-FAOjointinternetsitewww.agri-outlook.org. OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2013©OECD/FAO2013 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Acknowledgements T hisAgriculturalOutlookisjointlypreparedbytheOECDandFAOSecretariats. AttheOECD,thebaselineprojectionsandOutlookreportwerepreparedbymembersof the Agro-Food Trade and Markets Division of the Trade and Agriculture Directorate: ArmelleElasri (publication co-ordinator), Alexis Fournier, Linda Fulponi, GaëlleGouarin, WayneJones (Division Head), Claude Nenert, Koki Okawa, Ignacio Pérez Domínguez, GarrySmith, GrégoireTallard (Outlook co-ordinator).The OECD Secretariat is grateful for the contributions provided by the consultant Pierre Charlebois, staff loans from Canada (PaulLirette),NewZealand(RichardWallace)andUnitedStates(StephenMacDonald),and Andrzej Kwiecinski (OECD). Meeting organisation and document preparation were providedbyChristineCameron,witheditingbyMichèlePatterson.Technicalassistancein thepreparationoftheOutlookdatabasewasprovidedbyFranoIlicic.Manyothercolleagues in the OECD Secretariat and member country delegations furnished useful comments on earlierdraftsofthereport. At the FAO, the team of economists and commodity officers from the Trade and MarketscontributingtothiseditionconsistedofAbdolrezaAbbassian,ElMamounAmrouk, Pedro Arias, Boubaker BenBelhassen (EST Principal Officer), Concepcion Calpe, Emily Carroll, Merritt Cluff, Cheng Fang, David Hallam (EST Division Director), HolgerMatthey (Team Leader), Seth Meyer, Masato Nakane, Jean Senahoun, Shangnan Shui,TimothySulserandPeterThoenes.MarcelAdenäuerfromBonnUniversityjoinedthe teamasaconsultant.AudunLemandStefaniaVannuccinicontributedfromtheFisheries and Aquaculture Department, with technical support from Pierre Charlebois. Research assistance and database preparation were provided by Claudio Cerquiglini, Berardina Forzinetti, Patrizia Masciana, Marco Milo, Fiorella Picchioni and Barbara Senfter. Several othercolleaguesfromFAOandmembercountryinstitutionsimprovedthisreportthrough valuabledetailsandcomments.FromFAO’sPublishingGroup,RachelTuckerandYongdong Fu provided invaluable assistance. DrChenZhijun (TCI) provided information on climate andwaterinChina. Chapter2oftheOutlook“FeedingChina:Prospectsandchallengesinthenextdecade” was written in close collaboration between Chinese colleagues and the Secretariats at OECD and FAO. The team from the Agricultural Information Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences included Xu Shiwei (Director General), Li Zhemin, LiZhiqiang, LiGanqiong,Wu Jianzhai, Kong Fantao andWang Shengwei.The team from theMarketandEconomicIndustryDivisionoftheMinistryofAgricultureincludedCaiPing (Director) and Zhao Zhuo. Wu Laping,Yu Leng, Li Guoxiang, Zhu Xinkai,Yang Jun also contributeddatasupport,modellingadvice,policyanalysesandothervaluableinsights. The European Commission provided the stochastic analysis of the baseline results. This work was performed by the Agrilife Unit of the Joint Research Centre (JRC-IPTS in Seville), with collaboration from the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural 4 OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2013©OECD/FAO2013 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Development (DGAGRI).The contributors to this section were Zebedee Nii-Naate and AlisonBurrell,withsupportfromMarcoArtavia,HubertusGayandSophieHélaine. Finally, the valuable information and feedback provided by the International Cotton Advisory Committee, International Dairy Federation, International Fishmeal and Fish Oil Organisation, International Grains Council, International Meat Secretariat and InternationalSugarOrganisationisgratefullyacknowledged. OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2013©OECD/FAO2013 5 TABLEOFCONTENTS Table of contents Acronymsandabbreviations................................................. 14 Executivesummary......................................................... 19 Chapter1.OverviewoftheOECD-FAOOutlook2013-2022........................ 23 Introduction............................................................ 24 Foodpriceinflation...................................................... 27 Macroandpolicysettings ................................................ 30 Maincommoditymarketdevelopments.................................... 34 Risksanduncertainties.................................................. 56 Notes.................................................................. 64 Chapter2.FeedingChina:Prospectsandchallengesinthenextdecade............ 65 Introduction............................................................ 66 ThesuccessofChina’sagriculture......................................... 67 TheoutlookforChina’sagriculturalsector.................................. 75 ThecommodityoutlookforChina2013-22.................................. 84 Risksanduncertainties.................................................. 99 Conclusion............................................................. 103 Notes.................................................................. 103 References ............................................................. 104 Chapter3.Biofuels........................................................... 105 Marketsituation........................................................ 106 Projectionhighlights .................................................... 106 Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 107 Risksanduncertainties.................................................. 115 Notes.................................................................. 119 Chapter4.Cereals ........................................................... 121 Marketsituation........................................................ 122 Projectionhighlights .................................................... 122 Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 124 Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 134 Notes.................................................................. 137 Reference.............................................................. 137 Chapter5.Oilseeds.......................................................... 139 Marketsituation........................................................ 140 Projectionhighlights .................................................... 140 Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 141 OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2013©OECD/FAO2013 7 TABLEOFCONTENTS Risksanduncertainties.................................................. 147 Notes.................................................................. 150 References ............................................................. 150 Chapter6.Sugar............................................................. 151 Marketsituation........................................................ 152 Projectionhighlights .................................................... 152 Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 154 Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 168 Chapter7.Meat ............................................................. 171 Marketsituation........................................................ 172 Projectionhighlights .................................................... 172 Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 174 Keyissuesanduncertainties ............................................. 185 Chapter8.FishandSeafood .................................................. 191 Marketsituation........................................................ 192 Projectionhighlights .................................................... 192 Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 200 Notes.................................................................. 203 Chapter9.Dairy............................................................. 205 Marketsituation........................................................ 206 Projectionhighlights .................................................... 206 Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 207 Risksanduncertainties.................................................. 215 Chapter10.Cotton........................................................... 217 Marketsituation........................................................ 218 Projectionhighlights .................................................... 218 Markettrendsandprospects ............................................. 218 Mainissuesanduncertainties ............................................ 225 Glossaryofterms........................................................... 231 Methodology............................................................... 243 StatisticalAnnex ........................................................... 249 Tables 1.1. Yieldchangesin2012duetothedrought ............................... 25 1.2. ShareofOECDinworldimportsandexportsofagriculturalproductsdeclines.. 52 1.3. ACVs(%)ofkeymacroeconomicvariablesandthecrudeprice,2013-22 ..... 58 1.4. ACVs(%)ofyieldforselectedarablecrops,2013-22....................... 59 1.5. ACVs(%)forselectedbaselinevariables,conditionalonmacroeconomic andcropyielduncertaintyseparatelyandjointly,2013-22................. 60 2.1. FoodInsecurityinChina:FAOestimatesofthenumberofpeople undernourished..................................................... 70 2.2. China:Foodconsumptionbycategory,ruralvs.urban .................... 79 4.1. Ricefoodpercapitaconsumption...................................... 132 8 OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2013©OECD/FAO2013
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