OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030.

523 Pages·2008·8.751 MB·English

by  OECD

OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030

How will economic and social developments drive environmental change to 2030? What policies are
OECD
needed to address the main environmental challenges? How can OECD and non-OECD countries best

work together to tackle these challenges?
Environmental
The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 provides analyses of economic and environmental trends to

2030, and simulations of policy actions to address the key challenges. Without new policies, we risk
irreversibly damaging the environment and the natural resource base needed to support economic Outlook to 2030
growth and well-being. The costs of policy inaction are high.
But the Outlook shows that tackling the key environmental problems we face today − including climate
change, biodiversity loss, water scarcity and the health impacts of pollution − is both achievable and
affordable. It highlights a mix of policies that can address these challenges in a cost-effective way.
The focus of this Outlook is expanded from the 2001 edition to refl ect developments in both OECD
countries and Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Africa (BRIICS), and how they might better
co-operate on global and local environmental problem-solving.
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OECD Environmental
Outlook to 2030
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION
AND DEVELOPMENT
The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 30 democracies work together to
address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at
the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and
concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an
ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy
experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate
domestic and international policies.
The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea,
Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic,
Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Commission of
the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD.
OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation’s statistics gathering and
research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and
standards agreed by its members.
This work is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The
opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official
views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries.
Also available in French under the title:
Perspectives de l’environnement de l’OCDE à l’horizon 2030
Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found online at: www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda.
© OECD 2008
No reproduction, copy, transmission or translation of this publication may be made without written permission. Applications should be sent to
OECD Publishing [email protected] or by fax [phone]. Permission to photocopy a portion of this work should be addressed to the Centre français
d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC), 20, rue des Grands-Augustins, 75006 Paris, France, fax [phone], [email protected] or (for US only) to
Copyright Clearance Center (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, fax [phone], [email protected].
PREFACE
Preface
T
he environmental challenges we face over the coming few decades are daunting. They will require
concerted policy action, and co-operation among countries, different ministries within countries, and
with stakeholder partners. Climate change is particularly high on the political agenda now, but we
also face the challenges of halting biodiversity loss, ensuring clean water and adequate sanitation for
all, and reducing the health impacts of environmental degradation.
The analysis presented in this OECD Environmental Outlook shows that the necessary policies
and solutions are available, that they are achievable and that they are affordable. But we need to act
now, while it is still relatively inexpensive, particularly in the rapidly emerging economies. One scenario
in this Outlook found that if we are willing to accept a 98% increase in global GDP from now to2030
–rather than the 99% in our Baseline–we could achieve significant improvements in air and water
quality, and progress towards climate targets. This is not a lot to pay (you can call it the cost of
insurance). The consequences and costs of inaction, on the other hand, would be much higher.
This Outlook provides policy-makers with guidance on how to address the more complex and
long-term global environmental challenges, in a way that is cost-effective and can also deal with
the shorter-term concerns of their local constituencies. The OECD is well positioned to provide this
guidance. The analysis in this Outlook is based on an economic and environmental modelling
framework, drawing on expert inputs from across the Organisation – macroeconomic assumptions
from our Economics Department, energy projections from our sister organisation, the International
Energy Agency, agricultural assumptions from our Trade and Agriculture Directorate–and
environmental modelling expertise from the Dutch Environmental Assessment Agency.
Environment Ministries cannot address these challenges alone. They need the support of other
areas, in particular of the Ministries of Finance to provide environmental policy reforms with a strong
financial backing. And they need the support of ministries of energy, agriculture, transport and
industry to implement the sectoral policies required to reduce the environmental impacts of our
production and consumption patterns.
Countries will need to restructure their economies in order to move towards a low carbon,
greener and more sustainable future. The costs of this restructuring are affordable, but the transition
needs to be managed carefully to address social and competitiveness impacts, and to take
advantage of new opportunities, like eco-innovation. Removal of environmentally harmful
subsidies, particularly for fossil fuels and agricultural production, is a necessary first step: it would
shift the economy away from activities that pollute and over-use natural resources while saving
money for tax payers. The focus should be on taxing the “bad”, rather than subsidising the “good”.
The reason is simple: the “bad” is known (e.g. CO emissions), while the “good” of today can becom
2
obsolete or be proven to be inefficient tomorrow. Policy simulations carried out for this OECD
Environmental Outlook demonstrate that widespread use of market-based instruments can
considerably lower the cost of action to achieve ambitious environmental goals.
OECD ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK TO 2030 – ISBN 978-92-64-04048-9 – © OECD 2008 3
PREFACE
The most pressing environmental challenges cannot be solved by OECD countries alone. The
OECD Environmental Outlook to2030 shows that the global cost of action will be much lower if
all countries work together to achieve common environmental goals. To implement cost-effective
solutions, developed countries will need to work closely with emerging economies– especially Brazil,
Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa–as well as with other developing countries.
Governments, businesses, trade unions, NGOs and all citizens need to join forces to ensure that
the ecosystem services that support economic growth and human well-being are not lost. With the
size of the world economy expected to double by 2030, while population is expected to increase by
one-third, continuing or expanding our current patterns of consumption and production is simply
unsustainable. The OECD Environmental Outlook shows that the policies and solutions to address
these challenges over the coming decades are available and affordable. But if we want to avoid
irreversible damage to our environment and the very high costs of policy inaction, we’d better start
working right away.
Angel Gurría
Secretary-General
4 OECD ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK TO 2030 – ISBN 978-92-64-04048-9 – © OECD 2008
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Acknowledgements
T
he OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 was developed by a team within the OECD
Environment Directorate, under the management of Lorents Lorentsen (Director), Rob
Visser (Deputy Director), Helen Mountford (Head of Division), and Jan Bakkes (Netherlands
Environmental Assessment Agency).
The OECD Environment Policy Committee (EPOC) was responsible for the oversight of
the development of the report. The Working Party on Global and Structural Policies
(WPGSP) was responsible for overseeing the modelling framework and application. Other
OECD bodies also provided expert input to selected chapters, including: the Working Party
on National Environmental Policies (WPNEP); Joint Meeting of the Chemicals Committee
and the Working Party on Chemicals, Pesticides and Biotechnology; Working Group on
Environmental Information and Outlooks (WGEIO); Working Group on Economic Aspects of
Biodiversity (WGEAB); Working Group on Transport; Working Group on Waste Prevention
and Recycling (WGWPR); Joint Working Party on Agriculture and Environment (JWPAE);
Joint Working Party on Trade and Environment (JWPTE); Committee on Fisheries (COFI);
and the Tourism Committee.
Representatives from non-OECD countries – in particular Brazil, China, India, and the
Russian Federation – provided input to the report through a Global Forum on Sustainable
Development event in May2007. Stakeholder representatives provided input to draft
chapters, in particular environmental citizens’ organisations (co-ordinated through the
European Environmental Bureau), industry (co-ordinated through the Business and
Industry Advisory Committee to the OECD), and trade unions (co-ordinated through the
Trade Union Advisory Committee to the OECD).
The main drafters of the chapters of the OECD Environmental Outlook were:
Executive Summary Kumi Kitamori
Introduction Helen Mountford
The World to2030–The Consequences of Policy Inaction
I. Drivers of Environmental Change
1. Consumption, Production and Technology Ysé Serret, Nick Johnstone, Ivan Hascic, Takako Haruyama
2. Population Dynamics and Demographics Xavier Leflaive
3. Economic Development Philip Bagnoli, Jean Chateau, Yong Gun Kim
4. Globalisation Cristina Tébar Less, Philip Bagnoli
5. Urbanisation Kyung Yong Lee, Carine Barbier (IDDRI)
6. Key Variations to the Standard Expectation to2030 Philip Bagnoli, Jean Chateau, Yong Gun Kim
OECD ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK TO 2030 – ISBN 978-92-64-04048-9 – © OECD 2008 5
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
II. Environmental Challenges
7. Climate Change Jan Corfee-Morlot, Dennis Tirpak, Jane Ellis, Philip Bagnoli, Yong-Gun Kim,
Jean Chateau, Detlef van Vuuren (MNP)
8. Air Pollution Frank de Leeuw, Jan Bakkes, Hans Eerens, Robert Koelemeijer (all MNP)
9. Biodiversity Philip Bagnoli, Takako Haruyama
10. Freshwater Gerard Bonnis
11. Waste and Material Flows Henrik Harjula, Myriam Linster, Soizick de Tilly
12. Health and Environment Pascale Scapecchi, Nicolas Gagnon, Dian Turnheim, Frank de Leeuw (MNP)
13. Cost of Policy Inaction Nick Johnstone, Jan Corfee-Morlot, Ivan Hascic
Policy Responses
III. Sectoral Developments and Policies
14. Agriculture Philip Bagnoli, Jean Chateau, Yong Gun Kim, Wilfrid Legg, Olivier Belaud,
Elke Stehfest (MNP)
15. Fisheries and Aquaculture Martha Heitzmann, Helen Mountford, Philip Bagnoli
16. Transport Tom Jones, Michael Donohue, Nadia Caid
17. Energy Jan Corfee-Morlot, Jane Ellis, Trevor Morgan
18. Chemicals Richard Sigman
19. Selected Industries
Steel and Cement Nils Axel Braathen
Pulp and Paper Xavier Leflaive
Tourism Xavier Leflaive
Mining Peter Borkey
IV. Putting the Policies Together
20. Environmental Policy Packages Helen Mountford, Tom Kram (MNP)
21. Institutions and Approaches for Policy Implementation Kumi Kitamori, Krzysztof Michalak
22. Global Environmental Co-operation Roberto Martin-Hurtado
Annexes
A. Regional environmental implications Xavier Leflaive
B. Modelling framework and assumptions Jan Bakkes and Detlef van Vuuren (MNP), Philip Bagnoli
The economic part of the modelling work for the OECD Environmental Outlook was
undertaken by the OECD team working on ENV-Linkages, and the environmental modelling
work was undertaken by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP). The
MNP used IMAGE and related environmental models, including collaboration with LEI at
Wageningen University and Research Centre on agriculture-economy modelling, and the
Center for Environmental Systems Research (CESR) at Kassel University for modelling of
water quantity issues. In addition, environmental modelling drew on results from The
World Bank and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centres (on air pollution) and
the Sustainable Europe Research Institute (on use of material resources).
6 OECD ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK TO 2030 – ISBN 978-92-64-04048-9 – © OECD 2008
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The modelling teams were:
ENV-Linkages (OECD) IMAGE and related environmental models
Core team: Specific contributions:
Philip Bagnoli Tom Kram Annelies Balkema
Jean Chateau Jan Bakkes Johannes Bollen
Yong-Gun Kim Lex Bouwman Hans Eerens
Sebnem Sahin Gerard van Drecht Michel den Elzen
Bas Eickhout Henk Hilderink
Michel Jeuken Morna Isaac
Frank de Leeuw Paul Lucas
Mark van Oorschot Jos Olivier
Elke Stehfest Ellen Teichert (CESR)
Detlef van Vuuren Kerstin Verzano (CESR)
Jasper van Vliet
Martina Weiss (CESR)
From collaborating institutes:
Andrzej Tabeau (LEI)
Hans van Meijl (LEI)
Frank Voss (CESR)
Geert Woltjer (LEI)
The MNP team consisted of the above modelling team as well as Johan Meijer,
KeesKlein Goldewijk, Peter Janssen, Rineke Oostenrijk, Ton Manders, Robert Koelemeijer,
Peter Bosch, Dick Nagelhout and Jan Bakkes (project management).
Statistical and research assistance was provided by Cuauhtémoc Rebolledo-Gómez,
Takako Haruyama, Carla Bertuzzi, Simon Faucher, and Niels Schenk. Jane Kynaston
co-ordinated the reviewing and administrative processes of the report. Kathleen Mechali
and Stéphanie Simonin-Edwards provided administrative assistance. Fiona Hall edited the
report. Support for the publication process was provided by Katherine Kraig-Ernandes,
Catherine Candea and the OECD Publishing Division.
A number of OECD countries provided financial or in-kind contributions to support the
modelling and Outlook work, including: Canada, the Czech Republic, Japan, Korea, the
Netherlands, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
This publication is dedicated to the memory of Takako Haruyama (1976-2007).
OECD ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK TO 2030 – ISBN 978-92-64-04048-9 – © OECD 2008 7