OECD Employment Outlook 2017

220 Pages·2017·3.641 MB·English

by  Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

OECD Employment Outlook
2017
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OECD Employment
Outlook
2017
ThisworkispublishedundertheresponsibilityoftheSecretary-GeneraloftheOECD.The
opinionsexpressedandargumentsemployedhereindonotnecessarilyreflecttheofficial
viewsofOECDmembercountries.
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or
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Pleasecitethispublicationas:
OECD(2017),OECDEmploymentOutlook2017,OECDPublishing,Paris.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/empl_outlook-2017-en
ISBN978-92-64-27485-3(print)
ISBN978-92-64-27486-0(PDF)
ISBN978-92-64-27487-7(epub)
Series:OECDEmploymentOutlook
ISSN1013-0241(print)
ISSN1999-1266(online)
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FOREWORD
Foreword
T
he OECD Employment Outlook provides an annual assessment of key labour market
developmentsandprospectsinOECDmembercountries.Eacheditionalsocontainsseveralchapters
focusingonspecificaspectsofhowlabourmarketsfunctionandtheimplicationsforpolicyinorder
to promote more and better jobs. This year’s chapters cover a comparison of labour market
performanceindifferentcountriesintermsofthequantityandqualityofjobandinclusiveness,the
policydeterminantsoflabourmarketresiliencefollowingthe2008economiccrisis,anassessmentof
how technology and globalisation are transforming the labour market, and a rich description of
collectivebargaininginOECDcountries.
The 2017 OECD Employment Outlook is the joint work of staff of the Directorate for
Employment, Labour and Social Affairs. The staff of the OECD Economics Department also
contributedtothepreparationofChapter2.Ithasgreatlybenefitedfromcontributionsfromnational
government delegates. However, the Outlook’s assessments of each country’s labour market
prospectsdonotnecessarilycorrespondtothosemadebythenationalauthoritiesconcerned.
ThisreportwaseditedbyPaulSwaim,andisbasedoncontributionsfromAndreaBassanini,
Pascal Marianna and Paul Swaim (Chapter1),Alexander Hijzen,Andreas Kappeler, Mathilde Pak
andCyrilleSchwellnus(Chapter2),PaoloFalcoandAndreaSalvatori(Chapter3),andSandrineCazes
andAndreaGarnero(Chapter4).ResearchassistancewasprovidedbyDanaBlumin,SylvieCimper,
DuncanMacDonald,SébastienMartinandAgnèsPuymoyen.Editorialassistancewasprovidedby
GabrielaBejan,NatalieCorry,MonicaMeza-EssidandMarlèneMohier.
OECDEMPLOYMENTOUTLOOK2017©OECD2017 3

TABLEOFCONTENTS
Table of contents
Editorial.Thebacklashagainstglobalisation:Whatdoesitmeanforemployment
policy? .................................................................... 9
Acronymsandabbreviations................................................. 15
Executivesummary......................................................... 17
Chapter1.Howarewedoing?Abroadassessmentoflabourmarketperformance.. 19
Keyfindings............................................................ 20
Introduction............................................................ 21
1.Currentlabourmarketconditionsandtheshort-termoutlook............... 22
2.Towardsabroadassessmentoflabourmarketperformance ................ 23
3.Thequantityandqualityofemployment................................. 25
4.Labourmarketinclusiveness ........................................... 28
5.Ascoreboardoflabourmarketperformanceintermsofjobquantity,
jobqualityandinclusiveness............................................. 36
Conclusions............................................................ 42
Notes.................................................................. 42
References ............................................................. 45
Chapter2.Labourmarketresilience:Theroleofstructuralandmacroeconomic
policies................................................................ 47
Keyfindings............................................................ 48
Introduction............................................................ 50
1.ResilienceinthewakeoftheGreatRecession............................. 50
2.Thepolicydeterminantsoflabourmarketresilience....................... 58
3.Theeffectsoflabourmarketandfiscalpoliciesforlabourmarketresilience
followingtheGreatRecession............................................. 69
Conclusions............................................................ 74
Notes.................................................................. 75
References ............................................................. 77
Chapter3.Howtechnologyandglobalisationaretransformingthelabourmarket .. 81
Keyfindings............................................................ 82
Introduction............................................................ 84
1.Thechangingstructureofthelabourmarket.............................. 85
2.Estimatingtheeffectsoftechnologyandglobalisationonthelabourmarket .. 94
3.Policyoptionstohelpworkerswithstandlabourmarkettransformations..... 108
Conclusions............................................................ 113
Notes.................................................................. 114
References ............................................................. 116
OECDEMPLOYMENTOUTLOOK2017©OECD2017 5
TABLEOFCONTENTS
Annex3.A1.Additionalevidenceonpolarisation................................. 120
Annex3.A2.Estimatesonselectedcountries,2000-15............................. 123
Chapter4.Collectivebargaininginachangingworldofwork..................... 125
Keyfindings............................................................ 126
Introduction............................................................ 128
1.Thefunctionsandthefeaturesofcollectivebargaining..................... 129
2.Theactorsandthescopeofcollectivebargaining.......................... 132
3.Unpackingthecomplexmachineryofcollectivebargaining................. 146
4.Howdonationalcollectivebargainingsystemscompare?................... 163
Conclusions............................................................ 165
Notes.................................................................. 167
References ............................................................. 168
Glossary ................................................................... 172
Annex4.A1.Furthermaterial.................................................. 174
Statisticalannex............................................................ 187
Tables
1.1. TheframeworkforthenewOECDJobsStrategy.......................... 24
1.2. Labourmarketperformancescoreboard:Keyindicatorsofjobquantity,
jobqualityandinclusiveness.......................................... 38
3.1. Industrycontributionstowithin-andbetween-industrypolarisation,
1997to2007......................................................... 97
3.2. Unpackingpolarisationinmanufacturing............................... 101
3.3. Unpackingpolarisationinnon-manufacturing........................... 102
3.4. Theimpactsoftechnologyandglobalisationonpolarisationindifferent
regions............................................................. 103
3.5. Theroleoflabourmarketinstitutions .................................. 105
3.6. Whathasbeendrivingthefallinmanufacturing,andtheriseofservice
sectoremployment? ................................................. 106
3.A2.1. Unpackingpolarisation,2000-15,selectedcountries,manufacturingsector ... 123
3.A2.2. Unpackingpolarisation,2000-15,selectedcountries,servicessector........ 124
4.1. Useofergaomnesclauses,2015 ........................................ 141
4.2. Scopeandcoverageofextensions(orfunctionalequivalent)mechanisms
inplaceinOECDandaccessioncountries,2015.......................... 142
4.3. Theduration,ultra-activityandretroactivityofcollectiveagreements,2015... 146
4.4. Useofthefavourabilityprinciple,2015 ................................. 149
4.5. Scopeandactualuseofderogationsandopt-out,2015.................... 150
4.6. Formsofco-ordinationacrossOECDcountries,2015...................... 153
4.7. Theenforcementofcollectiveagreements,2015 ......................... 156
4.8. Workerrepresentationattheworkplace,2015 ........................... 161
4.9. Associationbetweenon-siteunionrepresentationanddirectvoice
andquitsandcollectivedisputesin2011................................ 162
4.10. Dashboardofcollectivebargainingsystems,2015 ........................ 164
4.A1.1. Correlationbetweenqualityandlabourrelationsandlabourmarket
outcomes........................................................... 186
6 OECDEMPLOYMENTOUTLOOK2017©OECD2017
TABLEOFCONTENTS
Figures
1.1. Theslowimprovementoflabourmarketconditionsisprojected
tocontinueinalargenumberofOECDcountries......................... 23
1.2. Employmentquantityandlabourmarketslack,2015 ..................... 26
1.3. Employmentandthecomponentsofjobquality ......................... 28
1.4. Dispersionofthebottomendofthedisposableincomedistribution........ 29
1.5. Employmentandlowincomerates..................................... 31
1.6. Genderdisparitiesinlabourmarketincome............................. 32
1.7. Employmentgapswithrespecttoprime-agemenforselected
disadvantagedgroups................................................ 34
2.1. OutputandunemploymentdevelopmentsintheOECDsincetheonset
oftheGreatRecession................................................ 52
2.2. AnumberofOECDcountriesexperiencedpersistentdeviations
ofunemploymentfromthepre-crisisNAIRU ............................ 54
2.3. Declinesinproductivity,workingtimeandparticipationdampened
theimpactonunemployment......................................... 55
2.4. Lowerlabourproductivitygrowthtranslatedintolowerrealwagegrowth ... 56
2.5. Persistentincreasesinlong-termandyouthunemployment............... 57
2.6. Theroleoflabourmarketpoliciesandinstitutionsforlabourmarket
resilience........................................................... 60
2.7. Theroleofcollectivebargainingarrangementsforfirm-leveladjustments
totheGreatRecession................................................ 63
2.8. Governmentspendingstabilisesaggregatedemandduringeconomic
downturns.......................................................... 65
2.9. Governmentspendingreducesunemploymentduringeconomicdownturns.. 67
2.10. Governmentspendingreduceslong-termunemploymentduringeconomic
downturns.......................................................... 68
2.11. Strictemploymentprotectionprovisionsforregularworkerstended
toreduceresilience.................................................. 70
2.12. Automaticfiscalstabiliserscontributedtolabourmarketresilience ........ 72
2.13. Theresponsivenessofspendingonlabourmarketprogrammes
tochangesinunemployment ......................................... 74
3.1. Thelabourmarketcontinuestopolarise................................ 86
3.2. ICThasspreadfastthroughouttheworld............................... 89
3.3. SomesectorshaveincreasedtheiruseofICTparticularlyrapidly .......... 89
3.4. Theriseofglobalvaluechains......................................... 90
3.5. TheriseofChina .................................................... 92
3.6. Inequalityisrising,especiallyatthetop ................................ 93
3.7. Polarisationhasoccurredinalmostallindustries ........................ 95
3.8. Thedeclineofmanufacturing ......................................... 96
3.9. Inmostcountries,polarisationhaslargelyreflectedwithin-sectordynamics ... 98
3.10. TheriskofautomationinOECDcountries............................... 107
3.11. Youngerpeoplearebetterpreparedforthedigitalworkingenvironment
thanolderpeople.................................................... 109
3.A1.1. Jobpolarisationbycountry............................................ 121
3.A1.2. PolarisationinChinaandIndia........................................ 122
4.1. Themainbuildingblocksofcollectivebargaining ........................ 131
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TABLEOFCONTENTS
4.2. Trendsinuniondensity .............................................. 134
4.3. Tradeuniondensitybygroup,2013..................................... 135
4.4. Employerorganisationdensity ........................................ 136
4.5. Trendsincollectivebargainingcoveragerate ............................ 138
4.6. Collectivebargainingcoverageratebyindustryandfirmsize.............. 139
4.7. Detailedbargaininglevel ............................................. 148
4.8. Trendsinindustrialdisputes.......................................... 157
4.9. Qualityoflabourrelations ............................................ 158
4.10. EmployeerepresentationcoverageinEurope ............................ 161
4.A1.1. Tradeunionmembershipbygender,2015orlatestyearavailable........... 175
4.A1.2. Tradeunionmembershipbyagegroup,2015orlatestyearavailable ........ 176
4.A1.3. Tradeunionmembershipbyeducationlevel,2015orlatestavailableyear ... 177
4.A1.4. Tradeunionmembershipbycontractduration,2015orlatestavailableyear... 178
4.A1.5. Tradeunionmembershipbyindustry,2015orlatestavailableyear ......... 179
4.A1.6. Tradeunionmembershipbysector,2015orlatestavailableyear ........... 180
4.A1.7. Tradeunionmembershipbyfirmsize,2015orlatestavailableyear......... 181
4.A1.8. Employerorganisationmembershipbyindustry,2013 .................... 182
4.A1.9. Employerorganisationmembershipbyfirmsize,2013.................... 183
4.A1.10.Collectiveagreementcoveragebyindustryandfirmsize,
latestyearavailable.................................................. 184
4.A1.11.Correlationbetweenemployerorganisationdensityandtrade
uniondensityandcollectivebargainingcoveragerate .................... 185
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