OECD Employment Outlook: 2016 (Volume 2016)

243 Pages·2016·4.223 MB·English

by  Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

OECD Employment Outlook 2016
This 2016 edition of the OECD Employment Outlook provides an in-depth review of recent labour market trends
and short-term prospects in OECD countries. Chapter 1 provides an international assessment of recent labour
market developments, with a special focus on vulnerable youth. It shows that the post-crisis jobs gap is finally
closing, while highlighting the need for governments to address poor job quality and unequal opportunities OECD Employment Outlook
in the labour market. Chapter 2 considers skills use at work: are countries doing enough to ensure that workers
are able to make full use of their skills on the job? Chapter 3 looks at the short-term effects of structural
2016
reforms on employment and identifies successful strategies for reducing transition costs. Chapter 4
looks at how to close the labour market gender gap in emerging economies, proposing a comprehensive
policy response to the problem. The Outlook’s analysis and recommendations are complemented
by a statistical annex.
Contents
Editorial: Back in work, but still out of pocket
Chapter 1. Recent labour market developments and the short-term outlook
Chapter 2. Skills use at work: Why does it matter and what influences it?
Chapter 3. Short-term labour market effects of structural reforms: Pain before the gain?
Chapter 4. Closing gender gaps in the labour markets of emerging economies: The unfinished job
Statistical annex
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81 2016 08 1 P
OECD Employment
Outlook
2016
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Pleasecitethispublicationas:
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/empl_outlook-2016-en
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Series:OECDEmploymentOutlook
ISSN1013-0241(print)
ISSN1999-1266(online)
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FOREWORD
Foreword
T
he OECD Employment Outlook provides an annual assessment of key labour market
developmentsandprospectsinOECDmembercountries.Eacheditionalsocontainsseveralchapters
focusingonspecificaspectsofhowlabourmarketsfunctionandtheimplicationsforpolicyinorder
topromotemoreandbetterjobs.Thisyear’schapterscovervulnerableyouth,jobquality,skillsuse
at work, the short-term effects of structural reforms, and labour market gender gaps in emerging
economies.Referencestatisticsarealsoincluded.
The2016 OECD Employment Outlook is the joint work of staff of the Directorate for
Employment, Labour and SocialAffairs. It has greatly benefited from contributions from national
government delegates. However, the Outlook’s assessments of each country’s labour market
prospectsdonotnecessarilycorrespondtothosemadebythenationalauthoritiesconcerned.
This report was edited by Paul Swaim, and is based on contributions from Andrea Garnero,
Pascal Marianna and Paul Swaim (Chapter1), Guillermo Montt and Glenda Quintini (Chapter2),
Andrea Bassanini and Federico Cingano (Chapter3), and Paolo Falco (Chapter4). Research
assistance was provided by Dana Blumin, Sylvie Cimper, Paulina Granados-Zambrano,
SébastienMartin and Agnès Puymoyen. Editorial assistance was provided by Gabriela Bejan,
NatalieCorry,MonicaMeza-EssidandMarlèneMohier.
OECDEMPLOYMENTOUTLOOK2016©OECD2016 3

TABLEOFCONTENTS
Table of contents
Editorial:Backinwork,butstilloutofpocket .................................. 11
Acronymsandabbreviations................................................. 15
Executivesummary......................................................... 17
Chapter1.Recentlabourmarketdevelopmentsandtheshort-termoutlook........ 19
Keyfindings............................................................ 20
Introduction............................................................ 23
1. Recentlabourmarketdevelopments .................................... 24
2. Recentchangesinthecompositionofemploymentandjobquality.......... 37
3. Thelabourmarketsituationofvulnerableyouth .......................... 45
Conclusions............................................................ 50
Notes.................................................................. 51
References ............................................................. 52
Annex1.A1. Country-leveldatafromOECDeconomicprojections.............. 54
Annex1.A2. Supplementaldataonchangesinthecompositionofemployment,
wageandproductivitygrowth,andjobquality ................... 57
Chapter2.Skillsuseatwork:Whydoesitmatterandwhatinfluencesit?.......... 61
Keyfindings............................................................ 62
Introduction............................................................ 63
1. Skillsuseatwork:Definition,measurementandsomedescriptivestatistics.. 65
2. Whyskillsusematters ................................................ 74
3. Factorsinfluencingtheuseofinformation-processingskillsatwork:
Whatgoesoninsidethefirm........................................... 77
4. Externaldeterminantsofskillsuseatwork............................... 88
5. Lessonsforpolicy..................................................... 94
Conclusions............................................................ 100
Notes.................................................................. 102
References ............................................................. 104
Annex2.A1. FreyandJegen’s(2000)externalandinternalmotivationmodel..... 107
Chapter3.Short-termlabourmarketeffectsofstructuralreforms:
Painbeforethegain?.................................................... 111
Keyfindings............................................................ 112
Introduction............................................................ 113
1. Productmarketregulation ............................................. 114
2. Employmentprotectionlegislation...................................... 125
3. Designingstructuralreformsthatlimitshort-termcosts................... 145
OECDEMPLOYMENTOUTLOOK2016©OECD2016 5
TABLEOFCONTENTS
Conclusions............................................................ 153
Notes.................................................................. 154
References ............................................................. 160
Chapter4.Closinggendergapsinthelabourmarketsofemergingeconomies:
Theunfinishedjob...................................................... 169
Keyfindings............................................................ 170
Introduction............................................................ 172
1. Despitesignificantprogress,womencontinuetoholdworsejobsthanmen .. 173
2. Policyrecommendations............................................... 192
Conclusions............................................................ 203
Notes.................................................................. 204
References ............................................................. 206
Statisticalannex............................................................ 211
Tables
1.A1.1. RecentandprojectedgrowthratesforrealGDPandemployment,2007-17... 54
1.A1.2. Recentandprojectedemploymentandunemploymentrates,2007-17 ...... 56
1.A2.1. Cumulativegapsinrealhourlywagegrowthandrealhourlylabour
productivitygrowthsincethecrisis .................................... 59
1.A2.2. DashboardofjobqualityinOECDcountriesforselectedrecentyears ....... 60
2.1. Qualificationmismatchandskillsuse.................................. 71
2.2. Labourproductivityandskillsuseinselectedcountries................... 77
2.3. AdjustedrelationshipbetweenHigh-PerformanceWorkPractices
andskillsuseatwork ................................................ 85
2.4. Offshoringandskillsuseatwork ...................................... 91
2.5. Labourmarketinstitutionsandskillsuseatwork........................ 92
3.1. RecentEPLreformsandunemployment ................................ 142
3.2. RecentEPLreformsandshareofpermanentcontractsinnewcontracts..... 145
A. HarmonisedunemploymentratesinOECDcountries..................... 214
B. Employment/populationratiosbyselectedagegroups.................... 215
C. Labourforceparticipationratesbyselectedagegroups ................... 218
D. Unemploymentratesbyselectedagegroups ............................ 221
E. Employment/populationratiosbyeducationalattainment,2014 ........... 224
F. Labourforceparticipationratesbyeducationalattainment,2014........... 225
G. Unemploymentratesbyeducationalattainment,2014.................... 226
H. Incidenceandcompositionofpart-timeemployment .................... 227
I. Incidenceandcompositionofinvoluntarypart-timeemployment.......... 228
J. Incidenceandcompositionoftemporaryemployment.................... 229
K. Incidenceofjobtenure,lessthan12months ............................ 230
L. Averageannualhoursactuallyworkedperpersoninemployment.......... 233
M. Incidenceoflong-termunemployment,12monthsandover............... 234
N. Realaverageannualwagesandrealunitlabourcostsinthetotaleconomy.. 237
O. Earningsdispersionandincidenceofhighandlowpay ................... 238
P. Relativeearnings:Gender,ageandeducationgaps....................... 239
Q. Publicexpenditureandparticipantstocksinlabourmarketprogrammes
inOECDcountries,2013and2014...................................... 240
6 OECDEMPLOYMENTOUTLOOK2016©OECD2016
TABLEOFCONTENTS
Figures
1.1. OECDlabourmarketscontinuetorecoverfromthecrisis,albeitslowly...... 25
1.2. Thejobsrecoverycontinues,butremainsincompleteinthemajority
ofOECDcountries ................................................... 26
1.3. Unemploymenthasbeenfallingbutremainsaboveitspre-crisislevel
inmostOECDcountries .............................................. 27
1.4. Long-termunemploymenthasfallenmoreslowlythantotal
unemployment...................................................... 28
1.5. Thepost-crisissurgeinunemploymentledtoslowernominalwagegrowth,
butthiseffecthasnowbeenreversedinsomecountries.................. 30
1.6. Realwagegrowthhasbeenlessaffectedbythecrisisthannominalwage
growth,duetoslowingpriceinflation .................................. 32
1.7. Wagemoderationcontributedtoslowergrowthofnominalunit
labourcosts......................................................... 35
1.8. Wagerestraintisonlyslowlyrestoringexternalbalanceintheeuroarea.... 37
1.9. ManymanufacturingandconstructionjobslostduringtheGreatRecession
havenotbeenreplacedduringtherecovery ............................. 38
1.10. Theincidenceoftemporaryemploymentfellduringthecrisis,
buthassincerebounded.............................................. 40
1.11. Theincidenceofpart-timeemploymentcontinuestoincrease
inmanycountries ................................................... 41
1.12. Labourmarketinsecurityincreasedinthewakeofthecrisis,butneither
earningsqualitynorthequalityoftheworkingenvironmenthasshown
acleartrend ........................................................ 43
1.13. Youthunemploymenthasrecededfromitspost-crisispeak,butremains
veryhighinafewEuropeancountries.................................. 45
1.14. TheNEETratehasincreasedinthemajorityofOECDcountries............ 47
1.15. NEETsaremorelikelytoliveinjoblesshouseholdsthanotheryouth,2014 .. 48
1.16. ManyNEETshavenotfinishedupper-secondaryschooling ................ 49
1.17. ManyOECDcountriesappearlikelytomeettheG20targetof15%reduction
inthenumberoflow-skilledNEETsby2025,butthistargetcouldbedifficult
toattaininsomecountries ........................................... 50
1.A2.1. Theshiftfromgoodsproducingtoservicejobshascontinued
sincetheonsetofthecrisis ........................................... 58
2.1. Thecontributionofskillsproficiencyandotherfactorstothevariance
ofskillsuseatwork.................................................. 67
2.2. SkillsproficiencyandskillsuseacrossOECDPIAACcountries ............. 68
2.3. ImportanceversuscomplexityofICTskillsatworkinselected
Europeancountries .................................................. 69
2.4. Skillsuseatwork.................................................... 72
2.5. Skillsuseatworkbyoccupation....................................... 73
2.6. Wagereturnstoeducation,skillsproficiencyandskillsuse................ 75
2.7. Howeducation,skillsandskillsuserelatetojobsatisfaction .............. 76
2.8. Riskofjobautomation ............................................... 78
2.9. SkillsuseatworkandHigh-PerformanceWorkPractices.................. 81
2.10. High-PerformanceWorkPractices...................................... 83
OECDEMPLOYMENTOUTLOOK2016©OECD2016 7
TABLEOFCONTENTS
2.11. DistributionofHigh-PerformanceWorkPracticesacrossjobs
inselectedcountries................................................. 84
2.12. High-PerformanceWorkPracticesandfirmsize.......................... 84
2.13. Skillsuseatwork:Singlingouttheroleofexternalmotivationfactors ...... 87
2.14. Offshoringactivity,bytypeofoffshoring................................ 90
3.1. Competition-enhancingreformsandemploymentinnetworkindustries.... 118
3.2. Theemploymenteffectsofcompetition-enhancingreformsinupturns
anddownturns...................................................... 120
3.3. Competition-enhancingreformsandpricesinnetworkindustries.......... 121
3.4. Long-runindirecteffectsofcompetition-enhancingreformsinnetwork
industries .......................................................... 124
3.5. Flexibility-enhancingEPLreformsandbusiness-sectoremployment........ 130
3.6. Flexibility-enhancingEPLreformsandbusiness-sectorwages ............. 132
3.7. Long-runlabourmarketeffectsofflexibility-enhancingEPLreforms........ 133
3.8. Flexibility-enhancingEPLreformsandemploymentindifferentstages
ofthebusiness-cycle................................................. 135
3.9. Incidenceoffixed-termcontracts,flexibility-enhancingEPLreforms
andemployment .................................................... 136
3.10. Incidenceoffixed-termcontracts,flexibility-enhancingEPLreforms
andlow-skilledemployment.......................................... 138
3.11. Incidenceoffixed-termcontractsintotalwageandsalaryemployment
andnewhires....................................................... 141
3.12. EvolutionoftheunemploymentrateintheBalticcountries ............... 143
3.13. ShareofpermanentcontractsinnewcontractsinSloveniaandSpain ...... 144
3.14. AdjustmentstrategiestoadverseshocksusedbyEuropeanfirms
beforethecrisis ..................................................... 149
3.15. Theeffectofthe2012labourmarketreforminSpainonquarterlyseparation
ratesattheestablishmentlevel........................................ 150
4.1. Manycountriesareconvergingtolowparticipationgaps,butprogress
isuneven........................................................... 174
4.2. Theparticipationgapislargestamongthemostdisadvantaged
socialgroups........................................................ 175
4.3. TheNEETrateissignificantlyhigheramongwomen...................... 176
4.4. Gendergapsinschoolenrolmenthavelargelydisappearedorturned
infavourofwomen.................................................. 176
4.5. Socialnormsaremoving,butchangeisslowanduneven ................. 178
4.6. Significantgendergapspersistamongstudentsinkeyareasoflearning .... 179
4.7. Menandwomenareunevenlydistributedacrosssectors.................. 180
4.8. Topmanagementpositionsaredominatedbymen,butprogress
hasoftenbeensizable................................................ 181
4.9. Informalityismorecommonamongwomeninthemajorityofemerging
economies.......................................................... 182
4.10. Womenaremoreoftencredit-constrainedthanmen ..................... 183
4.11. Womenhavelimitedaccesstomanagementadviceandbusinesstraining... 183
4.12. Menandwomenstartbusinessesforthesamereasons................... 184
4.13. Thegenderpaygapremainssubstantialinmostcountries................ 185
8 OECDEMPLOYMENTOUTLOOK2016©OECD2016
TABLEOFCONTENTS
4.14. Largeunexplainedpaygapsexistwithineducationlevels,industries
andoccupations..................................................... 187
4.15. Womenbearthebruntofhouseholdduties ............................. 188
4.16. Womendevotemuchmoretimethanmentohouseholdduties............ 190
4.17. Women’sjobsarelesssecure.......................................... 191
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