OECD Economic Surveys: Turkey 2016: Edition 2016 (Volume 2016)

139 Pages·2016·4.583 MB·English

by  Oecd Organisation For Economic Co-Operation And Development

OECD Economic Surveys O
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SPECIAL FEATURES: STRENGTHENING MANUFACTURING; o OECD Economic Surveys
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PARTICIPATING IN GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS ic
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Most recent editions: ys
Australia, December 2014 Israel, January 2016
Austria, July 2015 Italy, February 2015
Belgium, February 2015 Japan, April 2015
Brazil, November 2015 Korea, May 2016
Canada, June 2016 Latvia, February 2015
Chile, November 2015 Lithuania, March 2016
V JULY 2016
China, March 2015 Luxembourg, March 2015 o
Colombia, January 2015 Mexico, January 2015 lu
m
Costa Rica, February 2016 Netherlands, March 2016 e
Czech Republic, June 2016 New Zealand, June 2015 2
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Denmark, May 2016 Norway, January 2016 16
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Estonia, January 2015 Poland, March 2016 1
8
Euro area, June 2016 Portugal, October 2014
European Union, June 2016 Russian Federation, January 2014
Finland, January 2016 Slovak Republic, November 2014
France, March 2015 Slovenia, May 2015
Germany, April 2016 South Africa, July 2015
Greece, March 2016 Spain, September 2014
Hungary, May 2016 Sweden, March 2015
Iceland, September 2015 Switzerland, November 2015
India, November 2014 Turkey, July 2016
Indonesia, March 2015 United Kingdom, February 2015
Ireland, September 2015 United States, June 2016
T
U
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Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-tur-2016-en. K
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Volume 2016/18 ISSN 0376-6438
2016 SUBSCRIPTION
July 2016
ISBN 978-92-64-25941-6 9HSTCQE*cfjebg+ J
10 2016 18 1 P u
ly
2
0
1
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OECD Economic Surveys:
Turkey
2016
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice tothe status of or
sovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundaries
andtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.
Pleasecitethispublicationas:
OECD(2016),OECDEconomicSurveys:Turkey2016,OECDPublishing,Paris.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-tur-2016-en
ISBN978-92-64-25941-6(print)
ISBN978-92-64-25942-3(PDF)
ISBN978-92-64-25943-0(epub)
Series:OECDEconomicSurveys
ISSN0376-6438(print)
ISSN1609-7513(online)
OECDEconomicSurveys:Turkey
ISSN1995-3429(print)
ISSN1999-0480(online)
ThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityoftherelevantIsraeliauthorities.Theuse
ofsuchdatabytheOECDiswithoutprejudicetothestatusoftheGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraeli
settlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofinternationallaw.
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TABLEOFCONTENTS
Table of contents
Executivesummary......................................................... 9
Growthhasbeenrobustdespiteadversecircumstancesbutmustberebalanced. 10
Removingstructuralbottleneckswouldboostproductivity ................... 10
Deeperparticipationinglobalvaluechainscouldhelprebalancegrowth ....... 10
Assessmentandrecommendations........................................... 13
Recenteconomicdevelopmentsandshort-termmacroeconomicoutlook ...... 20
Economicrebalancingtomakegrowthsustainableandmoreinclusive......... 23
Strengtheningtheresilienceoftheeconomy................................ 27
Restructuringthetradablesectorbyupgradingthebusinessenvironment ...... 33
Reformsandgreengrowth ............................................... 45
Bibliography............................................................ 48
Annex.Progressinkeystructuralreforms ..................................... 53
Thematic chapters
Chapter1.Rebalancinggrowthbystrengtheningthemanufacturingsector ........ 59
Introduction:upgradingmanufacturingtorebalancetheeconomy............. 60
Thedevelopmentofmanufacturinghasstrengthenedsocialinclusionbuthashit
aglassceiling .......................................................... 60
Disaggregatedanalysisconfirmsdeepfragmentation ........................ 65
Formalisationrequiresacoherentpolicyframework......................... 78
Policyrecommendations................................................. 85
Recommendationstorebalancetheeconomybystrengtheningthemanufacturingsector 85
Bibliography............................................................ 86
Chapter2.Reapingthebenefitsofglobalvaluechains .......................... 89
Turkey’sparticipationinGVCs ............................................ 90
Driversofparticipationinglobalvaluechains............................... 98
ImplicationsofparticipationinGVCs...................................... 116
Recommendationstoreapgreaterbenefitsfromglobalvaluechains ............... 119
Bibliography............................................................ 119
AnnexA1.Methodologyfortheoverviewfigures ............................... 121
AnnexA2.Sectordefinitions.................................................. 127
AnnexA3.Backwardparticipationbysourceandexportingsector ................ 128
AnnexA4.Forwardparticipationbysourceandexportingsector.................. 129
OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:TURKEY2016©OECD2016 3
TABLEOFCONTENTS
AnnexA5.Networkvisualisationmaps ........................................ 130
AnnexA6.DriversofGVCparticipation–aneconometricassessment ............. 134
Boxes
1. IntegratingSyrianrefugees ........................................... 26
1.1. Manufacturingledbroaderemploymentgrowthinmanyemergingregions.. 61
1.2. Businesssectorsegmentation......................................... 66
2.1. DepthofTurkey’spreferentialtradeagreements ......................... 104
2.2. SpecialinvestmentzonesinTurkey .................................... 111
Tables
1. The2016ActionPlan................................................. 15
2. Macroeconomicindicatorsandprojections ............................. 21
3. Shocksthatmightaffecteconomicperformance ........................ 23
4. Macroeconomicimbalances........................................... 27
5. Educationalindicatorsininternationalcomparison ...................... 41
1.1. Estimationresults ................................................... 61
1.2. Industry-relevantmeasuresofthe2016ActionPlan ...................... 79
2.1. Non-policydriversofGVCparticipation................................. 99
A6. DriversofGVCparticipation........................................... 135
Figures
1. Long-termmacroeconomicperformance................................ 14
2. Growthandsocialinclusion........................................... 16
3. Well-beingindicators................................................. 17
4. Incomeinequalityhasdeclineddespitelowredistribution ................ 18
5. ConvergencewiththeupperhalfofOECDcountrieshasslowed............ 19
6. Recenteconomicdevelopmentsandoutlook ............................ 22
7. Structuralimbalances................................................ 24
8. Internationalcompetitiveness ........................................ 25
9. Grossexternaldebt .................................................. 28
10. Privatesectordebt................................................... 29
11. Banksremainwellcapitalised......................................... 30
12. Monetarypolicyandinflationexpectations ............................. 31
13. Fiscalperformanceininternationalcomparison ......................... 32
14. Turkishmanufacturingunderperformsinternationalpeers................ 35
15. Significantproductivitydivergences.................................... 36
16. Investmentobstaclesreportedbyfullyformalfirms...................... 37
17. Globalvaluechainparticipationindices ................................ 38
18. Overviewofhumancapital ........................................... 42
19. Overviewofbasicinstitutions ......................................... 43
20. Overviewofspecificregulations ....................................... 44
21. Overviewofthetaxsystemandknowledge-basedcapital................. 45
22. GreengrowthindicatorsforTurkey..................................... 46
23. Greenhousegasemissions............................................ 47
24. Airpollution ........................................................ 48
1.1. Broad-basedindustrialisationhaspromotedsocialinclusion .............. 61
1.2. Jobcreationinmanufacturingledbroad-basedemploymentgrowth
incatching-upregions................................................ 62
4 OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:TURKEY2016©OECD2016
TABLEOFCONTENTS
1.3. Previouslylessactivegroupsarebettermobilised........................ 63
1.4. Turkishmanufacturingunderperformsinternationalpeers................ 64
1.5. Manufacturingemploymentaccordingtofirmsizeandtechnologylevel .... 67
1.6. Productivitydivergencewithinthemanufacturingsector ................. 67
1.7. Skillsininformalfirms .............................................. 69
1.8. Allocationofwageearnersaccordingtotheireducationlevel.............. 69
1.9. Fullyformalfirmsachievehigherproductivitygrowthbutcreatefewerjobs . 70
1.10. Productivitydivergencewithinfullyformalmanufacturing ............... 71
1.11. Gazellefirmsinfullyformalversustotalmanufacturing.................. 71
1.12. Roomforprogressincorporategovernance ............................. 73
1.13. Roomformoregrowthbyfullyformalfirms............................. 75
1.14. Investmentobstaclesreportedbyfullyformalfirms ..................... 75
1.15. Exportintensityhasweakenedoverall,butimprovedindynamicareas ..... 76
1.16. Resourceallocationefficiencyintotalandfullyformalmanufacturing ..... 78
2.1. Valueaddedoriginofexportsanditsdestination ........................ 91
2.2. Turkey'sexportmarketshares......................................... 92
2.3. Participationinglobalvaluechains .................................... 93
2.4. Revealedcomparativeadvantages ..................................... 94
2.5. Sectoralcontributionstoglobalvaluechainparticipationindices .......... 95
2.6. Shareofhigh-valueexportsbysector................................... 96
2.7. Turkey'smainglobalvaluechainpartnercountries....................... 97
2.8. Globalvaluechainparticipationbyexportdestination.................... 97
2.9. Governancetypesofglobalvaluechains................................ 98
2.10. Deviationfromexpectedglobalvaluechainparticipationindex............ 100
2.11. Networkreadinessindicators ......................................... 101
2.12. Financialvolatilitiesandexchangerateevaluation....................... 102
2.13. Tariffsappliedonprimaryandmanufacturedproducts ................... 102
2.14. Trade-weighteddepthofpreferentialtradeagreements................... 104
2.15. Non-tariff-measuresbytype .......................................... 105
2.16. OECDtradefacilitationindicators...................................... 106
2.17. Visarestrictionindex................................................. 106
2.18. Foreigndirectinvestment............................................. 107
2.19. DiffusionofselectedICTtoolsandactivitiesinenterprises,2014........... 108
2.20. Researchanddevelopment(R&D)expenditures.......................... 109
2.21. Governmentsupportforbusinessresearchanddevelopment(R&D) ........ 110
2.22. Patentapplications .................................................. 112
2.23. Experimentation-enablingpolicygaps.................................. 113
2.24. Percentageofadultswhohaveattainedatleastuppersecondaryeducation . 114
2.25. Relianceonprofessionalmanagement ................................. 115
2.26. Turkey'stradebalance................................................ 117
2.27. Jobssustainedbyforeignfinaldemand................................. 118
2.28. Low-andmedium-skilledlabourshareinmanufacturingGVCs............ 118
OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:TURKEY2016©OECD2016 5
This Survey is published on the responsibility of the Economic and
Development Review Committee (EDRC) of the OECD, which is charged with the
examinationoftheeconomicsituationofmembercountries.
TheeconomicsituationandpoliciesofTurkeywerereviewedbytheCommittee
on 16 June2016.The draft report was then revised in the light of the discussions
and given final approval as the agreed report of the whole Committee on
29June2016.
TheSecretariat’sdraftreportwaspreparedfortheCommitteebyRaufGönenç,
Volker Ziemann, Aslıhan Atabek Demirhan and Koray Kalafatcılar under the
supervision of Vincent Koen. Dan Andrews and Oliver Röehn also contributed.
ResearchassistancewasprovidedbyBéatriceGuérard.Secretarialassistancewas
providedbyMercedesBurgos.
ThepreviousSurveyofTurkeywasissuedinJuly2014.
InformationaboutthelatestaswellaspreviousSurveysandmoreinformation
abouthowSurveysarepreparedisavailableatwww.oecd.org/eco/surveys.
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BASICSTATISTICSOFTURKEY,2015
(NumbersinparenthesesrefertotheOECDaverage)*
LAND,PEOPLEANDELECTORALCYCLE
Population(million) 77.7 Populationdensityperkm² 99.2 (35.1)
Under15(%) 23.8 (18.0) Lifeexpectancy(years,2013) 76.6 (80.4)
Over65(%) 8.1 (16.3) Men 73.7 (77.8)
Latest5-yearaveragegrowth(%) 1.2 (0.6) Women 79.4 (83.0)
Latestgeneralelection November2015
ECONOMY
Grossdomesticproduct(GDP) Valueaddedshares(%,2014)
Incurrentprices(billionUSD) 720.5 Primarysector 8.0 (2.5)
Incurrentprices(billionTRY) 1953.6 Industryincludingconstruction 27.1 (26.4)
Latest5-yearaveragerealgrowth(%) 4.4 (1.7) Services 64.9 (71.1)
Percapita(000USDPPP) 20.3 (40.2)
EXTERNALACCOUNTS
Exchangerate(TRYperUSD) 2.7 Mainexports(%oftotalmerchandiseexports)
PPPexchangerate(USA=1) 1.2 Manufacturedgoods 43.4
InpercentofGDP Machineryandtransportequipment 27.3
Exportsofgoodsandservices 28.0 (54.1) Foodandliveanimals 10.0
Importsofgoodsandservices 30.8 (49.7) Mainimports(%oftotalmerchandiseimports)
Currentaccountbalance -4.4 (0.15) Machineryandtransportequipment 31.6
Netinternationalinvestmentposition -51.4 Manufacturedgoods 23.4
Chemicalsandrelatedproducts,n.e.s. 13.8
LABOURMARKET,SKILLSANDINNOVATION
Unemploymentrate,LabourForceSurvey(age15and
Employmentratefor15-64year-olds(%) 50.2 (66.2) over)(%) 10.2 (6.8)
Men 69.8 (74.1) Youth(age15-24,%) 18.5 (13.9)
Women 30.5 (58.5) Long-termunemployed(1yearandover,%,2014) 2.0 (2.5)
Participationratefor15-64year-olds(%,2014) 55.1 (71.2) Tertiaryeducationalattainment25-64year-olds(%,2014) 16.7 (34.0)
Averagehoursworkedperyear(2013)a 1832 (1770) GrossdomesticexpenditureonR&D(%ofGDP,2014) 1.0 (2.4)
ENVIRONMENT
CO2emissionsfromfuelcombustionpercapita(tonnes,
Totalprimaryenergysupplypercapita(toe,2014) 1.6 (4.1) 2013) 3.7 (9.6)
Renewables(%) 9.3 (9.1) Waterabstractionspercapita(1000m3,2012) 0.7
Fineparticulatematterconcentration(PM2.5,µg/m3,2013) 17.2 (13.8) Municipalwastepercapita(tonnes,2014) 0.4 (0.5)
SOCIETY
Incomeinequality(Ginicoefficient,2012) 0.402 (0.308) Educationoutcomes(PISAscore,2012)
Relativepovertyrate(%,2012) 17.8 (10.9) Reading 475 (496)
Mediandisposablehouseholdincome(000USDPPP,2012) 8.6 (22.1) Mathematics 448 (494)
Publicandprivatespending(%ofGDP) Science 463 (501)
Healthcare(2013) 5.1 (8.9) Shareofwomeninparliament(%,May2016) 14.9 (27.9)
Pensions(2013)b 8.1 (8.7) Netofficialdevelopmentassistance(%ofGNI) 0.54 (0.39)
Education(primary,secondary,postsec.nontertiary,
2012) 3.0 (3.7)
Betterlifeindex:www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org
a) 2014fortheOECDaggregate.
b) 2011fortheOECDaggregate.
* WheretheOECDaggregateisnotprovidedinthesourcedatabase,asimpleOECDaverageoflatestavailabledataiscalculatedwhere
dataexistforatleast29membercountries.
Source: Calculationsbasedondataextractedfromthedatabasesofthefollowingorganisations:OECD,InternationalEnergyAgency,
WorldBank,InternationalMonetaryFundandInter-ParliamentaryUnion.