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OECD Economic Surveys: Turkey 2016: Edition 2016 (Volume 2016) PDF

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OECD Economic Surveys O E C TURKEY D E c o n SPECIAL FEATURES: STRENGTHENING MANUFACTURING; o OECD Economic Surveys m PARTICIPATING IN GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS ic S u r v e TURKEY Most recent editions: ys Australia, December 2014 Israel, January 2016 Austria, July 2015 Italy, February 2015 Belgium, February 2015 Japan, April 2015 Brazil, November 2015 Korea, May 2016 Canada, June 2016 Latvia, February 2015 Chile, November 2015 Lithuania, March 2016 V JULY 2016 China, March 2015 Luxembourg, March 2015 o Colombia, January 2015 Mexico, January 2015 lu m Costa Rica, February 2016 Netherlands, March 2016 e Czech Republic, June 2016 New Zealand, June 2015 2 0 Denmark, May 2016 Norway, January 2016 16 / Estonia, January 2015 Poland, March 2016 1 8 Euro area, June 2016 Portugal, October 2014 European Union, June 2016 Russian Federation, January 2014 Finland, January 2016 Slovak Republic, November 2014 France, March 2015 Slovenia, May 2015 Germany, April 2016 South Africa, July 2015 Greece, March 2016 Spain, September 2014 Hungary, May 2016 Sweden, March 2015 Iceland, September 2015 Switzerland, November 2015 India, November 2014 Turkey, July 2016 Indonesia, March 2015 United Kingdom, February 2015 Ireland, September 2015 United States, June 2016 T U R Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-tur-2016-en. K E This work is published on the OECD iLibrary, which gathers all OECD books, periodicals and statistical databases. Y Visit www.oecd-ilibrary.org for more information. Volume 2016/18 ISSN 0376-6438 2016 SUBSCRIPTION July 2016 ISBN 978-92-64-25941-6 9HSTCQE*cfjebg+ J 10 2016 18 1 P u ly 2 0 1 6 OECD Economic Surveys: Turkey 2016 This document and any map included herein are without prejudice tothe status of or sovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundaries andtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea. Pleasecitethispublicationas: OECD(2016),OECDEconomicSurveys:Turkey2016,OECDPublishing,Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-tur-2016-en ISBN978-92-64-25941-6(print) ISBN978-92-64-25942-3(PDF) ISBN978-92-64-25943-0(epub) Series:OECDEconomicSurveys ISSN0376-6438(print) ISSN1609-7513(online) OECDEconomicSurveys:Turkey ISSN1995-3429(print) ISSN1999-0480(online) ThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityoftherelevantIsraeliauthorities.Theuse ofsuchdatabytheOECDiswithoutprejudicetothestatusoftheGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraeli settlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofinternationallaw. Photocredits:Cover©EvenKalirbocak/Shutterstock.com. CorrigendatoOECDpublicationsmaybefoundonlineat:www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm. ©OECD2016 Youcancopy,downloadorprintOECDcontentforyourownuse,andyoucanincludeexcerptsfromOECDpublications,databasesand multimediaproductsinyourowndocuments,presentations,blogs,websitesandteachingmaterials,providedthatsuitable acknowledgementofOECDassourceandcopyrightownerisgiven.Allrequestsforpublicorcommercialuseandtranslationrightsshould besubmittedtorights@oecd.org.Requestsforpermissiontophotocopyportionsofthismaterialforpublicorcommercialuseshallbe addresseddirectlytotheCopyrightClearanceCenter(CCC)[email protected]çaisd’exploitationdudroitdecopie(CFC) [email protected]. TABLEOFCONTENTS Table of contents Executivesummary......................................................... 9 Growthhasbeenrobustdespiteadversecircumstancesbutmustberebalanced. 10 Removingstructuralbottleneckswouldboostproductivity ................... 10 Deeperparticipationinglobalvaluechainscouldhelprebalancegrowth ....... 10 Assessmentandrecommendations........................................... 13 Recenteconomicdevelopmentsandshort-termmacroeconomicoutlook ...... 20 Economicrebalancingtomakegrowthsustainableandmoreinclusive......... 23 Strengtheningtheresilienceoftheeconomy................................ 27 Restructuringthetradablesectorbyupgradingthebusinessenvironment ...... 33 Reformsandgreengrowth ............................................... 45 Bibliography............................................................ 48 Annex.Progressinkeystructuralreforms ..................................... 53 Thematic chapters Chapter1.Rebalancinggrowthbystrengtheningthemanufacturingsector ........ 59 Introduction:upgradingmanufacturingtorebalancetheeconomy............. 60 Thedevelopmentofmanufacturinghasstrengthenedsocialinclusionbuthashit aglassceiling .......................................................... 60 Disaggregatedanalysisconfirmsdeepfragmentation ........................ 65 Formalisationrequiresacoherentpolicyframework......................... 78 Policyrecommendations................................................. 85 Recommendationstorebalancetheeconomybystrengtheningthemanufacturingsector 85 Bibliography............................................................ 86 Chapter2.Reapingthebenefitsofglobalvaluechains .......................... 89 Turkey’sparticipationinGVCs ............................................ 90 Driversofparticipationinglobalvaluechains............................... 98 ImplicationsofparticipationinGVCs...................................... 116 Recommendationstoreapgreaterbenefitsfromglobalvaluechains ............... 119 Bibliography............................................................ 119 AnnexA1.Methodologyfortheoverviewfigures ............................... 121 AnnexA2.Sectordefinitions.................................................. 127 AnnexA3.Backwardparticipationbysourceandexportingsector ................ 128 AnnexA4.Forwardparticipationbysourceandexportingsector.................. 129 OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:TURKEY2016©OECD2016 3 TABLEOFCONTENTS AnnexA5.Networkvisualisationmaps ........................................ 130 AnnexA6.DriversofGVCparticipation–aneconometricassessment ............. 134 Boxes 1. IntegratingSyrianrefugees ........................................... 26 1.1. Manufacturingledbroaderemploymentgrowthinmanyemergingregions.. 61 1.2. Businesssectorsegmentation......................................... 66 2.1. DepthofTurkey’spreferentialtradeagreements ......................... 104 2.2. SpecialinvestmentzonesinTurkey .................................... 111 Tables 1. The2016ActionPlan................................................. 15 2. Macroeconomicindicatorsandprojections ............................. 21 3. Shocksthatmightaffecteconomicperformance ........................ 23 4. Macroeconomicimbalances........................................... 27 5. Educationalindicatorsininternationalcomparison ...................... 41 1.1. Estimationresults ................................................... 61 1.2. Industry-relevantmeasuresofthe2016ActionPlan ...................... 79 2.1. Non-policydriversofGVCparticipation................................. 99 A6. DriversofGVCparticipation........................................... 135 Figures 1. Long-termmacroeconomicperformance................................ 14 2. Growthandsocialinclusion........................................... 16 3. Well-beingindicators................................................. 17 4. Incomeinequalityhasdeclineddespitelowredistribution ................ 18 5. ConvergencewiththeupperhalfofOECDcountrieshasslowed............ 19 6. Recenteconomicdevelopmentsandoutlook ............................ 22 7. Structuralimbalances................................................ 24 8. Internationalcompetitiveness ........................................ 25 9. Grossexternaldebt .................................................. 28 10. Privatesectordebt................................................... 29 11. Banksremainwellcapitalised......................................... 30 12. Monetarypolicyandinflationexpectations ............................. 31 13. Fiscalperformanceininternationalcomparison ......................... 32 14. Turkishmanufacturingunderperformsinternationalpeers................ 35 15. Significantproductivitydivergences.................................... 36 16. Investmentobstaclesreportedbyfullyformalfirms...................... 37 17. Globalvaluechainparticipationindices ................................ 38 18. Overviewofhumancapital ........................................... 42 19. Overviewofbasicinstitutions ......................................... 43 20. Overviewofspecificregulations ....................................... 44 21. Overviewofthetaxsystemandknowledge-basedcapital................. 45 22. GreengrowthindicatorsforTurkey..................................... 46 23. Greenhousegasemissions............................................ 47 24. Airpollution ........................................................ 48 1.1. Broad-basedindustrialisationhaspromotedsocialinclusion .............. 61 1.2. Jobcreationinmanufacturingledbroad-basedemploymentgrowth incatching-upregions................................................ 62 4 OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:TURKEY2016©OECD2016 TABLEOFCONTENTS 1.3. Previouslylessactivegroupsarebettermobilised........................ 63 1.4. Turkishmanufacturingunderperformsinternationalpeers................ 64 1.5. Manufacturingemploymentaccordingtofirmsizeandtechnologylevel .... 67 1.6. Productivitydivergencewithinthemanufacturingsector ................. 67 1.7. Skillsininformalfirms .............................................. 69 1.8. Allocationofwageearnersaccordingtotheireducationlevel.............. 69 1.9. Fullyformalfirmsachievehigherproductivitygrowthbutcreatefewerjobs . 70 1.10. Productivitydivergencewithinfullyformalmanufacturing ............... 71 1.11. Gazellefirmsinfullyformalversustotalmanufacturing.................. 71 1.12. Roomforprogressincorporategovernance ............................. 73 1.13. Roomformoregrowthbyfullyformalfirms............................. 75 1.14. Investmentobstaclesreportedbyfullyformalfirms ..................... 75 1.15. Exportintensityhasweakenedoverall,butimprovedindynamicareas ..... 76 1.16. Resourceallocationefficiencyintotalandfullyformalmanufacturing ..... 78 2.1. Valueaddedoriginofexportsanditsdestination ........................ 91 2.2. Turkey'sexportmarketshares......................................... 92 2.3. Participationinglobalvaluechains .................................... 93 2.4. Revealedcomparativeadvantages ..................................... 94 2.5. Sectoralcontributionstoglobalvaluechainparticipationindices .......... 95 2.6. Shareofhigh-valueexportsbysector................................... 96 2.7. Turkey'smainglobalvaluechainpartnercountries....................... 97 2.8. Globalvaluechainparticipationbyexportdestination.................... 97 2.9. Governancetypesofglobalvaluechains................................ 98 2.10. Deviationfromexpectedglobalvaluechainparticipationindex............ 100 2.11. Networkreadinessindicators ......................................... 101 2.12. Financialvolatilitiesandexchangerateevaluation....................... 102 2.13. Tariffsappliedonprimaryandmanufacturedproducts ................... 102 2.14. Trade-weighteddepthofpreferentialtradeagreements................... 104 2.15. Non-tariff-measuresbytype .......................................... 105 2.16. OECDtradefacilitationindicators...................................... 106 2.17. Visarestrictionindex................................................. 106 2.18. Foreigndirectinvestment............................................. 107 2.19. DiffusionofselectedICTtoolsandactivitiesinenterprises,2014........... 108 2.20. Researchanddevelopment(R&D)expenditures.......................... 109 2.21. Governmentsupportforbusinessresearchanddevelopment(R&D) ........ 110 2.22. Patentapplications .................................................. 112 2.23. Experimentation-enablingpolicygaps.................................. 113 2.24. Percentageofadultswhohaveattainedatleastuppersecondaryeducation . 114 2.25. Relianceonprofessionalmanagement ................................. 115 2.26. Turkey'stradebalance................................................ 117 2.27. Jobssustainedbyforeignfinaldemand................................. 118 2.28. Low-andmedium-skilledlabourshareinmanufacturingGVCs............ 118 OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:TURKEY2016©OECD2016 5 This Survey is published on the responsibility of the Economic and Development Review Committee (EDRC) of the OECD, which is charged with the examinationoftheeconomicsituationofmembercountries. TheeconomicsituationandpoliciesofTurkeywerereviewedbytheCommittee on 16 June2016.The draft report was then revised in the light of the discussions and given final approval as the agreed report of the whole Committee on 29June2016. TheSecretariat’sdraftreportwaspreparedfortheCommitteebyRaufGönenç, Volker Ziemann, Aslıhan Atabek Demirhan and Koray Kalafatcılar under the supervision of Vincent Koen. Dan Andrews and Oliver Röehn also contributed. ResearchassistancewasprovidedbyBéatriceGuérard.Secretarialassistancewas providedbyMercedesBurgos. ThepreviousSurveyofTurkeywasissuedinJuly2014. InformationaboutthelatestaswellaspreviousSurveysandmoreinformation abouthowSurveysarepreparedisavailableatwww.oecd.org/eco/surveys. Follow OECD Publications on: http://twitter.com/OECD_Pubs http://www.facebook.com/OECDPublications http://www.linkedin.com/groups/OECD-Publications-4645871 http://www.youtube.com/oecdilibrary OECD Alerts http://www.oecd.org/oecddirect/ This book has... StatLinks2 A service that delivers Excel ® files from the printed page! Look for the StatLinks2at the bottom of the tables or graphs in this book. To download the matching Excel® spreadsheet, just type the link into your Internet browser, starting with the http://dx.doi.org prefix, or click on the link from the e-book edition. BASICSTATISTICSOFTURKEY,2015 (NumbersinparenthesesrefertotheOECDaverage)* LAND,PEOPLEANDELECTORALCYCLE Population(million) 77.7 Populationdensityperkm² 99.2 (35.1) Under15(%) 23.8 (18.0) Lifeexpectancy(years,2013) 76.6 (80.4) Over65(%) 8.1 (16.3) Men 73.7 (77.8) Latest5-yearaveragegrowth(%) 1.2 (0.6) Women 79.4 (83.0) Latestgeneralelection November2015 ECONOMY Grossdomesticproduct(GDP) Valueaddedshares(%,2014) Incurrentprices(billionUSD) 720.5 Primarysector 8.0 (2.5) Incurrentprices(billionTRY) 1953.6 Industryincludingconstruction 27.1 (26.4) Latest5-yearaveragerealgrowth(%) 4.4 (1.7) Services 64.9 (71.1) Percapita(000USDPPP) 20.3 (40.2) EXTERNALACCOUNTS Exchangerate(TRYperUSD) 2.7 Mainexports(%oftotalmerchandiseexports) PPPexchangerate(USA=1) 1.2 Manufacturedgoods 43.4 InpercentofGDP Machineryandtransportequipment 27.3 Exportsofgoodsandservices 28.0 (54.1) Foodandliveanimals 10.0 Importsofgoodsandservices 30.8 (49.7) Mainimports(%oftotalmerchandiseimports) Currentaccountbalance -4.4 (0.15) Machineryandtransportequipment 31.6 Netinternationalinvestmentposition -51.4 Manufacturedgoods 23.4 Chemicalsandrelatedproducts,n.e.s. 13.8 LABOURMARKET,SKILLSANDINNOVATION Unemploymentrate,LabourForceSurvey(age15and Employmentratefor15-64year-olds(%) 50.2 (66.2) over)(%) 10.2 (6.8) Men 69.8 (74.1) Youth(age15-24,%) 18.5 (13.9) Women 30.5 (58.5) Long-termunemployed(1yearandover,%,2014) 2.0 (2.5) Participationratefor15-64year-olds(%,2014) 55.1 (71.2) Tertiaryeducationalattainment25-64year-olds(%,2014) 16.7 (34.0) Averagehoursworkedperyear(2013)a 1832 (1770) GrossdomesticexpenditureonR&D(%ofGDP,2014) 1.0 (2.4) ENVIRONMENT CO2emissionsfromfuelcombustionpercapita(tonnes, Totalprimaryenergysupplypercapita(toe,2014) 1.6 (4.1) 2013) 3.7 (9.6) Renewables(%) 9.3 (9.1) Waterabstractionspercapita(1000m3,2012) 0.7 Fineparticulatematterconcentration(PM2.5,µg/m3,2013) 17.2 (13.8) Municipalwastepercapita(tonnes,2014) 0.4 (0.5) SOCIETY Incomeinequality(Ginicoefficient,2012) 0.402 (0.308) Educationoutcomes(PISAscore,2012) Relativepovertyrate(%,2012) 17.8 (10.9) Reading 475 (496) Mediandisposablehouseholdincome(000USDPPP,2012) 8.6 (22.1) Mathematics 448 (494) Publicandprivatespending(%ofGDP) Science 463 (501) Healthcare(2013) 5.1 (8.9) Shareofwomeninparliament(%,May2016) 14.9 (27.9) Pensions(2013)b 8.1 (8.7) Netofficialdevelopmentassistance(%ofGNI) 0.54 (0.39) Education(primary,secondary,postsec.nontertiary, 2012) 3.0 (3.7) Betterlifeindex:www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org a) 2014fortheOECDaggregate. b) 2011fortheOECDaggregate. * WheretheOECDaggregateisnotprovidedinthesourcedatabase,asimpleOECDaverageoflatestavailabledataiscalculatedwhere dataexistforatleast29membercountries. Source: Calculationsbasedondataextractedfromthedatabasesofthefollowingorganisations:OECD,InternationalEnergyAgency, WorldBank,InternationalMonetaryFundandInter-ParliamentaryUnion.

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