OECD economic surveys : Mexico

135 Pages·2013·2.796 MB·English

by  OECD

OECD Economic Surveys O
E
C
MEXICO D
E
c
o
SPECIAL FEATURE: IMPROVE FISCAL FEDERAL RELATIONS n
o OECD Economic Surveys
m
ic
S
Most recent editions u
r
v
Australia, December 2012 Israel, December 2011 ey MEXICO
s
Austria, July 2011 Italy, April 2013
Belgium, July 2011 Japan, April 2011
Brazil, October 2011 Korea, April 2012
Canada, June 2012 Luxembourg, December 2012
Chile, January 2012 Mexico, May 2013
China, March 2013 Netherlands, June 2012
Colombia, January 2013 New Zealand, April 2011
Czech Republic, November 2011 Norway, February 2012 V MAY 2013
o
Denmark, January 2012 Poland, March 2012
lu
Estonia, October 2012 Portugal, July 2012 m
e
Euro area, March 2012 Russian Federation, December 2011 2
European Union, March 2012 Slovak Republic, December 2012 0
1
Finland, February 2012 Slovenia, April 2013 3
/
9
France, March 2013 South Africa, March 2013
Germany, February 2012 Spain, November 2012
Greece, August 2011 Sweden, December 2012
Hungary, March 2012 Switzerland, January 2012
Iceland, June 2011 Turkey, July 2012
India, June 2011 United Kingdom, February 2013
Indonesia, September 2012 United States, June 2012
Ireland, October 2011
M
E
X
Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-mex-2013-en. IC
O
This work is published on the OECD iLibrary, which gathers all OECD books, periodicals and statistical databases.
Visit www.oecd-ilibrary.org for more information.
Volume 2013/9
ISSN 0376-6438
May 2013
2013 SUBSCRIPTION (18 ISSUES)
ISSN 1995-3666
SUBSCRIPTION BY COUNTRY M
-:HSTCQE=V]W^[\:
a
y
ISBN 978-92-64-18296-7 2
10 2013 09 1 P 0
1
3
102013091cov.indd 1 25-Mar-2013 9:31:54 AM

OECD Economic Surveys:
Mexico
2013
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or
sovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundaries
andtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.
Pleasecitethispublicationas:
OECD(2013),OECDEconomicSurveys:Mexico2013,OECDPublishing.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-mex-2013-en
ISBN978-92-64-18296-7(print)
ISBN978-92-64-18299-8(PDF)
Series:OECDEconomicSurveys
ISSN0376-6438(print)
ISSN1609-7513(online)
OECDEconomicSurveys:Mexico
ISSN1995-3666(print)
ISSN1999-0723(online)
ThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityofthe relevantIsraeliauthorities.Theuse
ofsuchdatabytheOECDiswithoutprejudicetothestatusoftheGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraeli
settlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofinternationallaw.
Photocredit:Cover©iStockphoto.com/M.
CorrigendatoOECDpublicationsmaybefoundonlineat:www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda.
©OECD2013
Youcancopy,downloadorprintOECDcontentforyourownuse,andyoucanincludeexcerptsfromOECDpublications,databasesand
multimediaproductsinyourowndocuments,presentations,blogs,websitesandteachingmaterials,providedthatsuitable
acknowledgementofOECDassourceandcopyrightownerisgiven.Allrequestsforpublicorcommercialuseandtranslationrightsshould
[e-mail]hotocopyportionsofthismaterialforpublicorcommercialuseshallbe
addresseddirectlytotheCopyrightClearanceCenter(CCC)[email protected]çaisd’exploitationdudroitdecopie(CFC)
[email protected].
TABLEOFCONTENTS
Table of contents
Executivesummary......................................................... 9
Assessmentandrecommendations........................................... 13
Makingreformhappen .................................................. 13
Shortandmedium-termmacroeconomicpolicies ........................... 13
Long-termeconomicgrowth ............................................. 18
Environmentalprotectionandenergypolicy ............................... 25
Fiscalreform ........................................................... 30
Bibliography............................................................ 42
AnnexA1.Progressinstructuralreform .................................... 44
Chapter1.Newfindingsonobstaclestoeconomicgrowth ....................... 47
Economicgrowth ....................................................... 48
Informality ............................................................ 52
Thelegalsystemandruleoflaw .......................................... 59
Bibliography............................................................ 63
Chapter2.Greengrowthchallengesandtheneedforanenergyreform............ 65
Greengrowthchallenges................................................. 66
EnergysectorreformtoboosttheproductivityofPEMEX ..................... 81
Bibliography............................................................ 85
Chapter3.ImprovingfiscalfederalrelationsforastrongerMexico ................ 87
Mexicanfiscaldecentralisation:Mainfeaturesandrecenttrends.............. 90
Issueswithintergovernmentalspendingassignments ....................... 93
Issueswithintergovernmentalrevenueassignments ........................ 101
Measurestoreducethepro-cyclicalityinsub-nationalrevenues............... 114
Improvingpublicfinancialmanagement ................................... 115
Subnationalgovernments’debthasbeenincreasingandpensionliabilities
arelarge............................................................... 117
Concludingremarks..................................................... 122
Notes.................................................................. 124
Bibliography............................................................ 124
Annex3.A1. ............................................................ 128
Boxes
1. Mainstructuralpolicyrecommendationsforboostinggrowth.............. 24
2. Mainrecommendationsforenvironmentalprotectionandenergypolicy.... 30
3. Mainrecommendationstoimprovethefiscalframeworkandfiscalfederalism . 36
4. Mainrecommendationsontaxpolicyandsocialtransfers................. 42
OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:MEXICO©OECD2013 3
TABLEOFCONTENTS
1.1. TheAustralianProductivityCommission................................ 51
1.2. ExplaininginformalityinMexico ...................................... 53
1.3. Mainstructuralpolicyrecommendationsforboostinggrowthpotential..... 63
2.1. Attractingprivateinvestmenttowardsgreeninfrastructurethrough
structuredinstruments(CKDs) ........................................ 81
2.2. Mainrecommendationsforgreengrowthandenergypolicy .............. 84
3.1. Whatarethecharacteristicsofgoodintergovernmentalfiscalarrangements? 89
3.2. Mexico’s2007reformtostrengthenitsfederalfiscalframework............ 97
3.3. TheNorwegianKOSTRAsystem:Whatgetsmeasuredgetsdoneandimproved 109
3.4. AnassessmentofthestabilisationpropertiesoftheMexican
intergovernmentaltransfersystem..................................... 114
3.5. Recommendationstoimprovefiscalrelationsacrosslevelsofgovernment .. 123
Tables
1. Demand,outputandprices ........................................... 15
2. Bankingsystemfinancialindicators.................................... 16
1.1. Estimatesofaninformalityequationacrossstatesandindustries.......... 53
1.2. Implementationofnewpenalcodes.................................... 61
2.1. Water,sanitaryservicesandwastewatertreatment...................... 76
3.1. Allocationofgovernmentresponsibilitiesforkeypublicservices........... 93
3.A1.1. Non-earmarkedtransfers(Participacionesfederales,Ramo28)............. 128
3.A1.2. Earmarkedtransfers(Aportacionesfederales,Ramo33)................... 129
3.A1.3. Assignmentsoftaxestosub-nationalgovernments ...................... 130
3.A1.4. Debtlimitsbystate .................................................. 131
Figures
1. Macroeconomicindicators............................................ 14
2. PrivatecreditasashareofGDP........................................ 17
3. ContributionstoGDPpercapitagrowth................................. 18
4. Stringencyofemploymentprotectionlegislation......................... 19
5. Distributionofmanufacturingenterprisesbysizeclass................... 20
6. PISAresultsforMexico............................................... 21
7. Start-updelaysandcostsforstartingabusiness......................... 22
8. Airpollutionandwaterstress ......................................... 26
9. Energy,GDPandcarbonemissions..................................... 27
10. Gasolinepricesandtaxrevenues ...................................... 28
11. Unitpriceofwaterandsanitationservicestohouseholds................. 29
12. PEMEXrevenueperemployeecomparedwithotherstate-ownedoil
companies.......................................................... 29
13. Fiscalbalanceandpublicdebt......................................... 31
14. Grossnationaldebtasashareofgovernmenttaxrevenues................ 31
15. Sub-nationalrevenueasapercentageofsub-nationalspending ........... 33
16. Recurrenttaxesonimmovableproperty ................................ 35
17. VATrevenuesasapercentageofpotentialrevenuefromfinalconsumption 37
18. Relativepovertyinthelate2000s ...................................... 39
19. Povertyindicators ................................................... 39
1.1. GapsinGDPpercapitaandproductivityarewideandpersistent........... 49
4 OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:MEXICO©OECD2013
TABLEOFCONTENTS
1.2. Unitlabourcostshavebeenfallingaslabourproductivityhasimproved
inmanufacturing.................................................... 49
1.3. Shift-shareanalysisoflabourproductivityevolution ..................... 50
1.4. Verysmallandlargeenterprisesdominateemployment .................. 52
1.5. EducationperformancebasedonPISAscoresisweakatalllevels .......... 54
1.6. Thetimerequiredtostartabusinesshasbeenfallinginnearlyallstates.... 56
1.7. Concentrationinselectedeconomicsectors............................. 57
1.8. Mexico’saverageandtrade-weightedtariffshavebeenreduced............ 58
1.9. Improvementsinthelegalsystemwouldboostaveragefirmsize........... 59
1.10. SafetyasacomponentoftheOECDBetterLifeIndex ..................... 60
1.11. Mexicoscorespoorlyonindexesoftheruleoflawandcorruption.......... 62
2.1. Airpollutionandwaterstress ......................................... 67
2.2. Energy,GDPandcarbonemissions..................................... 68
2.3. Subsidyincidencebyincomegroup .................................... 69
2.4. ImpactonGHGemissionsofphasing-outfossilfuelsubsidies ............. 69
2.5. Gasolinepriceandtaxrevenues ....................................... 70
2.6. Revenuesfromenvironmentally-relatedtaxes........................... 71
2.7. Electricpowertransmissionanddistributionlosses ...................... 72
2.8. CO emissionsbysector .............................................. 73
2
2.9. CONAGUA’sbudgetandrevenuesfromwaterabstractioncharges .......... 75
2.10. Watertariffsandtariffsbymunicipality ................................ 77
2.11. Investmentsrequiredto2030inlow-carboninterventionsinMexicobysector 79
2.12. Investmentsrequiredtoimplementthe2030WaterAgenda ............... 79
2.13. PEMEXoilproductionbyfield ......................................... 82
2.14. FinancialsummaryofPEMEX.......................................... 82
3.1. Keyhighlightsonsub-nationalspending................................ 91
3.2. Sub-nationalgovernments’revenuesources............................. 92
3.3. Sub-governmentrevenueandexpenditure,2011......................... 92
3.4. Healthoutcomesbystate............................................. 98
3.5. Healthspendingbystate ............................................. 99
3.6. Earmarkedhealthspendingperstate................................... 100
3.7. Mostmunicipalitiesdependonexternalfunding......................... 102
3.8. Stateandlocaltaxrevenue ........................................... 103
3.9. Recurrenttaxesonimmovableproperty ................................ 105
3.10. Unitpriceofwaterandsanitationservicestohouseholds................. 107
3.11. Transfersarenotequalisingandlittlerelatedtolocaltaxeffort ............ 110
3.12. Thesocialinfrastructurefunddoestargetmarginalisation ................ 111
3.13. RegionaldisparitiesacrossOECDcountries.............................. 112
3.14. Sub-centralgovernmentdebt.......................................... 117
3.15. Fiscalgaps.......................................................... 118
3.16. Pensionliabilitiesbystate ............................................ 120
OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:MEXICO©OECD2013 5
This Survey is published on the responsibility of the Economic and
Development Review Committee of the OECD, which is charged with the
examinationoftheeconomicsituationofmembercountries.
TheeconomicsituationandpoliciesofMexicowerereviewedbytheCommittee
on 19February2013. The draft report was then revised in the light of the
discussionsandgivenfinalapprovalastheagreedreportofthewholeCommitteeon
8March2013.
TheSecretariat’sdraftreportwaspreparedfortheCommitteebySeanDougherty,
AidaCalderaSánchez and CarlaValdivia de Richter, under the supervision of
PatrickLenain.StatisticalassistancewasprovidedbyRoselyneJamin.
ThepreviousSurveyofMexicowasissuedinMay2011.
This book has...
StatLinks2
A service that delivers Excel® files
from the printed page!
Look for the StatLinks at the bottom right-hand corner of the tables or graphs in this book.
To download the matching Excel® spreadsheet, just type the link into your Internet browser,
starting with the http://dx.doi.org prefix.
If you’re reading the PDF e-book edition, and your PC is connected to the Internet, simply
click on the link. You’ll find StatLinks appearing in more OECD books.
BASICSTATISTICSOFMEXICO,2011
(NumbersinparenthesesrefertotheOECDaverage)1
LAND,PEOPLEANDELECTORALCYCLE
Population(million) 115.6 Populationdensityperkm² 58.6 (34.3)
Under15(%) 29.2 (18.4) Lifeexpectancy(years,2010) 74.0 (79.7)
Over65(%) 5.8 (14.9) Males 71.1 (76.9)
Foreign-born(%,2010) 0.9 Females 77.0 (82.5)
Latest5-yearaveragegrowth(%) 1.3 (0.5) Lastgeneralelection July2012
ECONOMY
Grossdomesticproduct(GDP) Valueaddedshares(%)incurrentprices
Incurrentprices(billionUSD) 1.157.3 Primary 3.7 (2.5)
Incurrentprices(billionMXN) 14.395.8 Industryincludingconstruction 35.6 (27.8)
Latest5-yearaveragerealgrowth(%) 1.5 (0.8) Services 60.7 (69.3)
Percapita,PPP(thousandUSD) 15.2 (35.4)
GENERALGOVERNMENT
PercentofGDP
Expenditure(2010) 23.2 (44.0) Revenue(2010) 21.7 (36.1)
EXTERNALACCOUNTS
Exchangerate(MXNperUSD) 12.393 Mainexports(%oftotalmerchandiseexports)
PPPexchangerate(USA=1) 8.184 Machineryandtransportequipment 52.6
InpercentofGDP Mineralfuels,lubricantsandrelatedmaterials 15.9
Exportsofgoodsandservices 31.6 (52.7) Manufacturedgoods 8.1
Importsofgoodsandservices 32.8 (49.7) Mainimports(%oftotalmerchandiseimports)
Currentaccountbalance -0.8 (-0.7) Machineryandtransportequipment 45.3
Netinternationalinvestmentposition(2010) 39.6 Manufacturedgoods 13.6
Chemicalsandrelatedproducts 11.3
LABOURMARKET,SKILLSANDINNOVATION
Employmentrate(%)for15-64yearolds 60.0 (64.8) Unemploymentrate(%) 5.2 (7.9)
Males 78.0 (73.0) Youth(%) 9.9 (16.2)
Females 43.7 (56.8) Long-termunemployed(%) 0.1 (2.6)
Averageworkedhoursperyear 2.215(1776) Tertiaryeducationalattainment25-64year-olds
GrossexpenditureonR&D(%ofGDP,2009) 0.4 (2.4) (%,2010) 17.4 (30.7)
ENVIRONMENT
Totalprimaryenergysupplypercapita(TOE) 1.7 (4.3) CO emissionsfromfuelcombustionpercapita 3.8 (10.1)
2
Renewables(%) 9.3 (8.2) (tonnes,2010)
Fineparticulatematterconcentration 32.7 (22.0) Waterabstractionspercapita(1000m3,2009) 0.7
(urban,PM10,g/m3,2008) Municipalwastepercapita(tonnes,2010)3 0.4 (0.5)
SOCIETY
Incomeinequality(Ginicoefficient,late2000s) 0.466(0.314) Educationoutcomes(PISAscore,2009)
Relativepovertyrate(%,late2000s) 26.7 (17.9) Reading 425 (493)
Publicandprivatespending(%ofGDP) Mathematics 419 (496)
Healthcare(2010) 6.2 (9.7) Science 416 (501)
Pensions(2009) 1.7 (8.2) Shareofwomeninparliament(%,October2012) 36.0 (25.3)
Education(excludingtertiary,2009) 4.0 (4.0)
Betterlifeindex:www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org
1. WheretheOECDaggregateisnotprovidedinthesourcedatabase,asimpleOECDaverageoflatestavailabledataiscalculatedwhere
dataexistsforatleast29membercountries.
2. 2010fortheOECD.
3. 2009fortheOECD.
Source: Calculationsbasedondataextractedfromthedatabasesofthefollowingorganisations:OECD,InternationalEnergyAgency,
WorldBank,InternationalMonetaryFundandInter-ParliamentaryUnion.