OECD Economic Surveys : Hungary 2014.

116 Pages·2014·2.821 MB·English

by  OECD

OECD Economic Surveys O
E
C
HUNGARY D
E
c
o
SPECIAL FEATURES: ENHANCING COMPETITION AND TACKLING LABOUR n
o OECD Economic Surveys
MISMATCHES m
ic
S
u
r
v
Most recent editions e HUNGARY
y
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Australia, December 2012 Israel, December 2013
Austria, July 2013 Italy, May 2013
Belgium, May 2013 Japan, April 2013
Brazil, October 2013 Korea, April 2012
Canada, June 2012 Luxembourg, December 2012
Chile, October 2013 Mexico, May 2013
China, March 2013 Netherlands, June 2012
Colombia, January 2013 New Zealand, June 2013 V JANUARY 2014
o
Czech Republic, November 2011 Norway, February 2012 lu
Denmark, January 2014 Poland, March 2012 m
e
Estonia, October 2012 Portugal, July 2012 2
Euro area, March 2012 Russian Federation, January 2014 01
4
European Union, March 2012 Slovak Republic, December 2012 /
1
Finland, February 2012 Slovenia, April 2013
France, March 2013 South Africa, March 2013
Germany, February 2012 Spain, November 2012
Greece, November 2013 Sweden, December 2012
Hungary, January 2014 Switzerland, November 2013
Iceland, June 2013 Turkey, July 2012
India, June 2011 United Kingdom, February 2013
Indonesia, September 2012 United States, June 2012
Ireland, September 2013
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Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-hun-2014-en.
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Volume 2014/1
ISSN 0376-6438
January 2014
2014 SUBSCRIPTION (18 ISSUES)
ISSN 1995-3461 J
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SUBSCRIPTION BY COUNTRY 9HSTCQE*caefbf+ n
u
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ISBN 978-92-64-20451-5 r
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10 2014 01 1 P 2
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4

OECD Economic Surveys:
Hungary
2014
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or
sovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundaries
andtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.
Pleasecitethispublicationas:
OECD(2014),OECDEconomicSurveys:Hungary2014,OECDPublishing.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-hun-2014-en
ISBN978-92-64-20451-5(print)
ISBN978-92-64-20452-2(PDF)
Series:OECDEconomicSurveys
ISSN0376-6438(print)
ISSN1609-7513(online)
OECDEconomicSurveys:Hungary
ISSN1995-3461(print)
ISSN1999-0529(online)
ThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityofthe relevantIsraeliauthorities.Theuse
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TABLEOFCONTENTS
Table of contents
BasicstatisticsofHungary,2012.............................................. 7
Executivesummary......................................................... 9
Mainfindings........................................................... 10
Keyrecommendations................................................... 11
Assessmentandrecommendations........................................... 13
Strongerandmoreinclusivegrowth....................................... 14
Monetarypolicyandfinancialstability..................................... 19
Fiscalpolicy............................................................ 23
Enhancingcompetitionandthebusinessenvironment....................... 28
Improvingtheefficiencyandinclusivenessofthelabourmarket .............. 34
Bibliography............................................................ 40
Annex.Progressinmainstructuralreforms .................................... 43
Thematic chapters
Chapter1.Enhancingcompetitionandthebusinessenvironment ................ 51
Thegrowthpotentialhasmarkedlydeclined................................ 52
Reducingadministrativeburdensandregulatoryinstability................... 57
Strengtheninginstitutionalquality........................................ 63
SMEgrowthandentrepreneurshipneedtobefostered....................... 64
Barrierstoentryarehighinretailandprofessionalservices .................. 66
Cutsinregulatedenergypricesharmcompetition,competitiveness
andtheenvironment.................................................... 69
Thereisscopetoincreasecompetitioninmobilecommunications ............ 72
Bibliography............................................................ 76
Chapter2.Tacklinglabourmismatchesandpromotingmobility .................. 79
Substantiallabourmismatchesweighoneconomicperformance.............. 80
Enhancingdemandforlow-skilledlabour .................................. 83
Enhancedactivationpoliciesandlifelonglearning........................... 86
Improvinginitialeducationtomatchlabourmarketneeds ................... 91
Internationalmigrationandtheglobalcompetitionforskills.................. 99
Amoreflexiblehousingmarketwouldfacilitatetherelocationofworkers...... 102
Improvingtheefficiencyoftransporttoreducecommutingcosts.............. 104
Bibliography............................................................ 109
OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:HUNGARY©OECD2014 3
TABLEOFCONTENTS
Boxes
1. Mainrecommendationsonmonetarypolicyandfinancialstability......... 23
2. Mainrecommendationsonfiscalpolicy................................. 27
3. Mainrecommendationstoenhancecompetition
andthebusinessenvironment ........................................ 34
4. Mainrecommendationstoenhancelabourmarketparticipationandmobility.. 40
1.1. RecentadministrativesimplificationprogrammesinHungary ............. 58
1.2. TheexpansionofspecialtaxesinHungary.............................. 61
1.3. Theimplementationofthe2013energypricecuts........................ 70
1.4. Mainrecommendationstoenhancecompetition
andthebusinessenvironment ........................................ 75
2.1. Thepublicworksprogramme.......................................... 86
2.2. Recentreformsinprimaryandsecondaryeducation ..................... 93
2.3. Vocationaltrainingreform............................................ 94
2.4. The2012tertiaryeducationreform..................................... 97
2.5. Mainrecommendationstotacklelabourmarketmismatches
andpromotemobility................................................ 107
Tables
1. Macroeconomicindicatorsandprojections.............................. 16
2. Fiscalindicators..................................................... 24
3. Recentspecialtaxesonspecificsectors................................. 25
1.1. Selectedsector-specifictaxes.......................................... 61
2.1. Averagecaseloadinthepublicemploymentservice ...................... 88
2.2. Applicationsandadmissionstotertiaryeducation ....................... 96
2.3. Tertiaryeducation:labourmarketprospectsperfieldofstudy ............. 98
2.4. Maindiscountsinpublictransport..................................... 106
Figures
1. Keyindicators....................................................... 15
2. Financialvulnerabilities .............................................. 17
3. Potentialgrowth..................................................... 17
4. Socialindicators..................................................... 18
5. Environmentalindicators............................................. 19
6. Monetaryandfinancialindicators ..................................... 20
7. Bankingsectorindicators............................................. 22
8. Debtsustainability................................................... 24
9. Productmarketregulationindicator.................................... 28
10. Administrativeburdensarehigh....................................... 29
11. Barrierstoentryinservices........................................... 31
12. Energypricesforindustrialusers ...................................... 32
13. Telecommunications................................................. 33
14. Labourmarketindicators............................................. 35
15. Employmentratebyeducationalattainment ............................ 36
16. Unemploymentratebycounty ........................................ 36
1.1. Potentialgrowth..................................................... 52
1.2. Investment ......................................................... 53
1.3. Domesticvalueaddedcontentofgrossexports.......................... 54
4 OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:HUNGARY©OECD2014
TABLEOFCONTENTS
1.4. Smallandmedium-sizedenterprise(SME)indicators..................... 55
1.5. Theinformaleconomyislarge......................................... 56
1.6. Contributionofallocationofemploymentacrossfirmstomanufacturing
labourproductivity .................................................. 56
1.7. Administrativeburdensarehigh....................................... 57
1.8. Payingtaxes ........................................................ 60
1.9. Productmarketregulationintheretailsector............................ 66
1.10. Indicatorsonretailfirmsandprices.................................... 67
1.11. Barrierstocompetitioninprofessionalservices.......................... 68
1.12. Energypricesforindustrialusers ...................................... 71
1.13. Lowenergytaxationforheatingandelectricity.......................... 72
1.14. Priceofmobilecommunications....................................... 73
1.15. Wirelessbroadbandpenetration....................................... 73
2.1. Employmentandlabourproductivitygrowthhavebeenlow............... 80
2.2. Skillsmismatches ................................................... 81
2.3. Evolutionoftheunemploymentratebycounty.......................... 82
2.4. Unemploymentandjobvacancyrates.................................. 82
2.5. Averagetaxwedgeonlowtoaveragewages............................. 83
2.6. Minimumwage...................................................... 84
2.7. Compensationandproductivity ....................................... 85
2.8. Participationinpublicworksprogrammes .............................. 86
2.9. Adultsineducationandtraining....................................... 90
2.10. Publicspendingbylevelofeducation................................... 91
2.11. Inequalitiesineducation ............................................. 92
2.12. Studentsinsecondaryeducation ...................................... 95
2.13. Migratorytrends..................................................... 99
2.14. Internationalandforeignstudents..................................... 101
2.15. Housingmarket ..................................................... 103
2.16. Transportandtheenvironment........................................ 107
OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:HUNGARY©OECD2014 5
This Survey is published on the responsibility of the Economic and
Development Review Committee of the OECD, which is charged with the
examinationoftheeconomicsituationofmembercountries.
The economic situation and policies of Hungary were reviewed by the
Committeeon11December2013.Thedraftreportwasthenrevisedinthelightof
the discussions and given final approval as the agreed report of the whole
Committeeon20December2013.
TheSecretariat’sdraftreportwaspreparedfortheCommitteebyÁlvaroPina
and StéphaneSorbe under the supervision of PierreBeynet. Research assistance
was provided by DesneyErb. The report also benefitted from the co-operation of
GáborHorváth,secondedfromtheHungarianMinistryforNationalEconomy.
ThepreviousSurveyofHungarywasissuedinMarch2012.
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BASICSTATISTICSOFHUNGARY,2012
(NumbersinparenthesesrefertotheOECDaverage)a
LAND,PEOPLEANDELECTORALCYCLE
Population(million) 10.0 Populationdensityperkm² 107.3 (34.3)
Under15(%) 14.5 (18.1) Lifeexpectancy(years,2011) 75.0 (80.0)
Over65(%) 17.0 (15.3) Men 71.2 (77.3)
Foreign-born(%,2011) 4.7 Women 78.7 (82.8)
Latest5-yearaveragegrowth(%) -0.2 (0.5) Lastgeneralelection April2010
ECONOMY
Grossdomesticproduct(GDP) Valueaddedshares(%)
Incurrentprices(billionUSD) 124.9 Primarysector 4.7 (2.5)
Incurrentprices(billionHUF) 28082 Industryincludingconstruction 30.6 (27.4)
Latest5-yearaveragerealgrowth(%) -1.1 (0.6) Services 64.7 (69.7)
Percapita,PPP(thousandUSD) 21.9 (37.2)
GENERALGOVERNMENT
PercentofGDP
Expenditure 48.6 (42.8) Grossfinancialdebt 90.0 (102.3)
Revenue 46.5 (36.4) Netfinancialdebt 61.1 (64.0)
EXTERNALACCOUNTS
Exchangerate(HUFperUSD) 224.8 Mainexports(%oftotalmerchandiseexports)
PPPexchangerate(USA=1) 128.5 Machineryandtransportequipment 51.6
InpercentofGDP Manufacturedgoods 10.4
Exportsofgoodsandservices 94.6 (53.8) Chemicalsandrelatedproducts,n.e.s. 9.9
Importsofgoodsandservices 87.2 (50.4) Mainimports(%oftotalmerchandiseimports)
Currentaccountbalance 0.9 (-0.5) Machineryandtransportequipment 41.6
Netinternationalinvestmentposition(2010) -111.6 Manufacturedgoods 12.8
Mineralfuels,lubricantsandrelatedmaterials 12.7
LABOURMARKET,SKILLSANDINNOVATION
Employmentrate(%)for15-64year-olds 57.2 (65.0) Unemploymentrates(%)
Men 62.5 (73.1) Total(age15andover) 10.9 (7.9)
Women 52.1 (57.0) Youth(age15-24) 28.1 (16.2)
Averagehoursworkedperyear 1888 (1776) Long-termunemployed(1yearandover) 5.1 (2.7)
GrossdomesticexpenditureonR&D(%ofGDP,2011) 1.2 (2.4) Tertiaryeducationalattainment25-64year-olds(%,2011) 21.1 (31.5)
ENVIRONMENT
Totalprimaryenergysupplypercapita(toe) 2.4 (4.2) CO2emissionsfromfuelcombustionpercapita(tonnes,2011) 4.7 (10.0)
Renewables(%) 8.0 (8.5) Waterabstractionspercapita(1000m3,2008) 0.5
Fineparticulatematterconcentration(urban,PM10, 15.0 (20.1) Municipalwastepercapita(tonnes,2011) 0.4 (0.5)
µg/m3,2010)
SOCIETY
Incomeinequality(Ginicoefficient,2009) 0.272 (0.305) Educationoutcomes(PISAscore,2012)
Relativepovertyrate(%,2009) 6.8 (10.7) Reading 488 (497)
Publicandprivatespending(%ofGDP) Mathematics 477 (494)
Healthcare(2011) 7.9 (9.5) Science 494 (501)
Pensions(2009) 10.5 (8.7) Shareofwomeninparliament(%,November2013) 8.8 (26.0)
Netofficialdevelopmentassistance(%ofGNI) 0.1 (0.4)
Betterlifeindex:www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org
a) WheretheOECDaggregateisnotprovidedinthesourcedatabase,asimpleOECDaverageoflatestavailabledataiscalculatedwhere
dataexistsforatleast29membercountries.
Source: Calculationsbasedondataextractedfromthedatabasesofthefollowingorganisations:OECD,InternationalEnergyAgency,
WorldBank,InternationalMonetaryFundandInter-ParliamentaryUnion.