OECD economic surveys : Estonia 2015.

94 Pages·2015·2.833 MB·English

by  OECD

OECD Economic Surveys O
E
C
ESTONIA D
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SPECIAL FEATURES: RAISING PRODUCTIVITY; MAKING THE MOST OF n
o OECD Economic Surveys
HUMAN CAPITAL m
ic
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v
Most recent editions e ESTONIA
y
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Australia, December 2014 Israel, December 2013
Austria, July 2013 Italy, May 2013
Belgium, October 2012 Japan, April 2013
Brazil, October 2013 Korea, June 2014
Canada, June 2014 Luxembourg, December 2012
Chile, October 2013 Mexico, January 2015
China, March 2013 Netherlands, April 2014
Colombia, January 2015 New Zealand, June 2013 V JANUARY 2015
o
Czech Republic, March 2014 Norway, March 2014 lu
Denmark, January 2014 Poland, March 2014 m
e
Estonia, January 2015 Portugal, October 2014 2
Euro area, April 2014 Russian Federation, January 2014 0
1
5
European Union, April 2014 Slovak Republic, November 2014 /
3
Finland, February 2014 Slovenia, April 2013
France, March 2013 South Africa, March 2013
Germany, May 2014 Spain, September 2014
Greece, November 2013 Sweden, December 2012
Hungary, January 2014 Switzerland, November 2013
Iceland, June 2013 Turkey, July 2014
India, November 2014 United Kingdom, February 2013
Indonesia, September 2012 United States, June 2014
Ireland, September 2013
E
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Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-est-2015-en. N
IA
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Volume 2015/3 ISSN 0376-6438
2015 SUBSCRIPTION
January 2015
(18 ISSUES)
J
ISBN 978-92-64-22680-7 a
9HSTCQE*ccgiah+ n
10 2015 02 1 P u
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2
0
1
5

OECD Economic Surveys:
Estonia
2015
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or
sovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundaries
andtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.
Pleasecitethispublicationas:
OECD(2015),OECDEconomicSurveys:Estonia2015,OECDPublishing.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-est-2015-en
ISBN978-92-64-22680-7(print)
ISBN978-92-64-22722-4(PDF)
Series:OECDEconomicSurveys
ISSN1609-7513(print)
ISSN0376-6438(online)
OECDEconomicSurveys:Estonia
ISSN2221-2302(print)
ISSN2221-2299(online)
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ofsuchdatabytheOECDiswithoutprejudicetothestatusoftheGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraeli
settlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofinternationallaw.
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TABLEOFCONTENTS
Table of contents
BasicstatisticsofEstonia,2013............................................... 7
Executivesummary......................................................... 9
Mainfindings........................................................... 10
Keyrecommendations................................................... 11
Assessmentandrecommendations .......................................... 13
Domesticframeworkconditionsarefavourablebutreformsareneeded
toaccelerateconvergence................................................ 14
Weakeningexportshavedetractedfromeconomicgrowth.................... 16
Domesticfinancialrisksarelow .......................................... 19
Thefiscalpositionisstrong .............................................. 21
Recommendationsonfiscalpolicy .......................................... 22
Raisingproductivityandbenefittingmorefromopenness .................... 23
Recommendationstoraiseproductivity...................................... 26
ReducingCO emissionsandenergyconsumption........................... 26
2
RecommendationstolowerCO emissionsandenergyconsumption ............... 27
2
Makingthemostofhumancapital ........................................ 28
Recommendationstomakethemostofhumancapital .......................... 34
Bibliography............................................................ 35
Annex.Progressinmainstructuralreforms .................................... 37
Thematic chapters
Chapter1.Raisingproductivityandbenefittingmorefromopenness.............. 45
Modestproductivitygrowthslowsincomeconvergence ...................... 46
Opennessandhighvalueaddedforeigndirectinvestmentboostproductivity
andinnovation ......................................................... 47
Reapingmorebenefitsfrominnovation.................................... 48
Improvingproductmarketregulation...................................... 54
EnsuringaccesstofinanceforSMEs ....................................... 56
Closingexistinginfrastructuregaps ....................................... 58
ReducingCO emissionsandenergyconsumption........................... 59
2
Recommendationstoraiseproductivityandbenefitmorefromopenness............ 62
Bibliography............................................................ 64
Chapter2.Makingthemostofhumancapital .................................. 67
Laboursupplyisdecliningandstructuralunemploymentremainshigh ........ 68
Policiesencouragingequalpaybetweenmenandwomenhavebenefits
forlabourutilisation..................................................... 70
OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:ESTONIA©OECD2015 3
TABLEOFCONTENTS
Makingthetaxsystemmoreemployment-friendly .......................... 73
Thepensionsystemcreatesunnecessaryburdensonworkers ................ 76
Strengtheningthesupplyofmarketableskillshasbeenontheforefront
ofthegovernmentagenda ............................................... 81
Recommendationstomakethemostofhumancapital .......................... 88
Bibliography............................................................ 89
Boxes
1.1. SmartspecialisationanditsimplementationinEstonia................... 49
1.2. Usingbehaviouralsciencetoencourageinvestmentininsulation–evidence
fromtheUK......................................................... 62
1.3. Recommendationstoraiseproductivityandbenefitmorefromopenness ... 62
2.1. Migrationandcross-borderworkinEstonia ............................. 71
2.2. TheSwedishdrivetoreducefeesintheprivatecompulsorypensionsystem. 79
2.3. TheEstonianlife-longlearningstrategy2014-2020 ....................... 82
2.4. Recommendationstomakethemostofhumancapital ................... 88
Tables
1. Macroeconomicindicatorsandprojections.............................. 20
2. Taxrevenuecomposition,2011 ........................................ 29
3. Employmentratesofyoungpeopleupto3yearsaftergraduation
byeducationalattainmentlevel ....................................... 34
2.1. Decompositionoflabourutilisationgrowth ............................. 68
2.2. Unemploymentratesbyagegroupandeducationlevel,2013 .............. 69
2.3. Taxrevenuecomposition,2011 ........................................ 74
2.4. Employmentratesofyoungpeopleupto3yearsaftergraduation
byeducationalattainmentlevel ....................................... 84
Figures
1. GDPpercapitaandrealhouseholdincomebyincomequintile............. 14
2. ConvergenceinGDPpercapitaandproductivity ......................... 15
3. Averagewell-beingoutcomes,2014..................................... 15
4. Output,labourcostsandconsumerprices .............................. 17
5. Unemploymentratesbyeducationallevel............................... 17
6. Migrationandpopulationtrends....................................... 18
7. Exportperformanceandcompetitiveness............................... 19
8. Financialindicators.................................................. 21
9. Productmarketregulation ............................................ 24
10. Bankruptcyprocedures:recoveryratesandduration...................... 25
11. Greenhousegasemissionsandenergyconsumption ..................... 27
12. Labourtaxwedges................................................... 28
13. Vacanciesbyskilllevel ............................................... 29
14. Pensionfunds’operatingexpensesasashareofassetsundermanagement . 30
15. Highesteducationalattainmentofyoungadults......................... 33
1.1. Evolutionofproductivity ............................................. 46
1.2. Contributiontogrowthinrealbusinesssectorvalueaddedperhourworked 47
1.3. Labourproductivitylevelsbyenterprisesize,totaleconomy............... 47
1.4. Foreigndirectinvestmentinflowsbysector ............................. 48
1.5. R&Dspending....................................................... 49
4 OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:ESTONIA©OECD2015
TABLEOFCONTENTS
1.6. Levelofpublicparticipationandrighttopetitionthegovernment.......... 51
1.7. Collaborationoffirmsoninnovationwithhighereducationorpublicresearch.. 53
1.8. Productmarketregulation ............................................ 54
1.9. Bankruptcyprocedures:recoveryratesandduration...................... 56
1.10. Greenhousegasemissionsandenergyconsumption ..................... 60
2.1. Vacanciesbyskilllevel ............................................... 69
2.2. Migrationandpopulationtrends....................................... 71
2.3. Projectionsoftotaldependencyratio................................... 72
2.4. Labourtaxwedges................................................... 73
2.5. Pensionfunds’operatingexpensesasashareofassetsundermanagement . 77
2.6. Implicittaxoncontinuedwork:old-agepensions........................ 81
2.7. Highesteducationalattainmentofyoungadults......................... 82
2.8. Privateandpublicreturnstotertiaryeducation.......................... 84
OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:ESTONIA©OECD2015 5
This Survey is published on the responsibility of the Economic and
Development Review Committee (EDRC) of the OECD, which is charged with the
examinationoftheeconomicsituationofmembercountries.
TheeconomicsituationandpoliciesofEstoniawerereviewedbytheCommittee
on 5November2014. The draft report was then revised in the light of the
discussionsandgivenfinalapprovalastheagreedreportofthewholeCommitteeon
15December2014.
The Secretariat’s draft report was prepared for the Committee by Andrés
Fuentes Hutfilter and Andreas Kappeler under the supervision of Andreas
Wörgötter.ResearchassistancewasprovidedbySeung-HeeKohandEunJungKim.
HeloiseWickramanayakeformattedandproducedthelayoutofthedocument.
ThepreviousSurveyofEstoniawasissuedinOctober2012.
InformationaboutthelatestaswellaspreviousSurveysandmoreinformation
abouthowSurveysarepreparedisavailableatwww.oecd.org/eco/surveys.
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BASICSTATISTICSOFESTONIA,2013
(NumbersinparenthesesrefertotheOECDaverage)*
LAND,PEOPLEANDELECTORALCYCLE
Population(million) 1.3 Populationdensityperkm² 29.5 (34.4)
Under15(%) 16.0 (18.3) Lifeexpectancy(years,2012) 76.5 (80.2)
Over65(%) 17.1 (15.6) Men 71.4 (77.5)
Foreign-born(%,2011) 15.9 Women 81.5 (82.9)
Latest5-yearaveragegrowth(%) -0.1 (0.6) Latestgeneralelection March2011
ECONOMY
Grossdomesticproduct(GDP) Valueaddedshares(%)
Incurrentprices(billionUSD) 24.9 Primarysector 3.6 (2.5)
Incurrentprices(billionEUR) 18.7 Industryincludingconstruction 28.9 (26.8)
Latest5-yearaveragerealgrowth(%) 0.1 (0.8) Services 67.5 (70.5)
Percapita(000USDPPP) 25.6 (39.1)
GENERALGOVERNMENT
PercentofGDP
Expenditure 38.9 (42.5) Grossfinancialdebt 13.5 (110.7)
Revenue 38.4 (36.8) Netfinancialdebt -32.2 (69.9)
EXTERNALACCOUNTS
Exchangerate(EURperUSD) 0.753 Mainexports(%oftotalmerchandiseexports)
PPPexchangerate(USA=1) 0.556 Machineryandtransportequipment 31.8
InpercentofGDP Manufacturedgoods 15.2
Exportsofgoodsandservices 86.1 (53.4) Miscellaneousmanufacturedarticles 14.4
Importsofgoodsandservices 85.2 (49.4) Mainimports(%oftotalmerchandiseimports)
Currentaccountbalance -1.4 (-0.1) Machineryandtransportequipment 33.8
Netinternationalinvestmentposition -48.9 Mineralfuels,lubricantsandrelatedmaterials 14.1
Manufacturedgoods 13.8
LABOURMARKET,SKILLSANDINNOVATION
Employmentratefor15-64year-olds(%) 68.5 (65.2) Unemploymentrate,LabourForceSurvey(age15andover)(%) 8.6 (7.9)
Men 71.4 (73.1) Youth(age15-24,%) 18.8 (16.1)
Women 65.7 (57.4) Long-termunemployed(1yearandover,%) 3.8 (2.7)
Participationratefor15-64year-olds(%) 75.1 (71.1) Tertiaryeducationalattainment25-64year-olds(%,2012) 37.3 (32.2)
Averagehoursworkedperyear 1,868 (1771) GrossdomesticexpenditureonR&D(%ofGDP,2012) 2.2 (2.4)
ENVIRONMENT
Totalprimaryenergysupplypercapita(toe) 4.4 (4.2) CO2emissionsfromfuelcombustionpercapita(tonnes,2012) 12.3 (9.7)
Renewables(%) 13.0 (8.8) Waterabstractionspercapita(1000m3,2012) 1.2
Fineparticulatematterconcentration(urban,PM10,µg/m3,2011) 16.7 (28.0) Municipalwastepercapita(tonnes,2012) 0.3 (13.5)
SOCIETY
Incomeinequality(Ginicoefficient,2011) 0.323 (0.308) Educationoutcomes(PISAscore,2012)
Relativepovertyrate(%,2011) 11.7 (11.1) Reading 516 (496)
Medianequivalisedhouseholdincome(000USDPPP,2010) 10.0 (20.4) Mathematics 521 (494)
Publicandprivatespending(%ofGDP) Science 541 (501)
Healthcare(2012) 5.9 (9.2) Shareofwomeninparliament(%,October2014) 19.0 (26.7)
Pensions(2011) 7.0 (8.7) Netofficialdevelopmentassistance(%ofGNI) 0.13 (0.37)
Education(primary,secondary,postsec.nontertiary,2011) 3.4 (3.9)
Betterlifeindex:www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org
* WheretheOECDaggregateisnotprovidedinthesourcedatabase,asimpleOECDaverageoflatestavailabledataiscalculatedwhere
dataexistforatleast29membercountries.
Source: Calculationsbasedondataextractedfromthedatabasesofthefollowingorganisations:OECD,InternationalEnergyAgency,
WorldBank,InternationalMonetaryFundandInter-ParliamentaryUnion.