OECD Economic Surveys : Denmark 2013.

126 Pages·2014·3.152 MB·English

by  OECD

OECD Economic Surveys O
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DENMARK D
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SPECIAL FEATURES: PROMOTING COMPETITION, INNOVATION AND SKILLS n
o OECD Economic Surveys
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Most recent editions r
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Australia, December 2012 Israel, December 2011
Austria, July 2013 Italy, May 2013
Belgium, May 2013 Japan, April 2013
Brazil, October 2013 Korea, April 2012
Canada, June 2012 Luxembourg, December 2012
Chile, October 2013 Mexico, May 2013
China, March 2013 Netherlands, June 2012
Colombia, January 2013 New Zealand, June 2013 V JANUARY 2014
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Czech Republic, November 2011 Norway, February 2012 lu
Denmark, January 2014 Poland, March 2012 m
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Estonia, October 2012 Portugal, July 2012 2
Euro area, March 2012 Russian Federation, January 2014 01
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European Union, March 2012 Slovak Republic, December 2012 /
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Finland, February 2012 Slovenia, April 2013 u
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France, March 2013 South Africa, March 2013 p
Germany, February 2012 Spain, November 2012 le
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Greece, November 2013 Sweden, December 2012 e
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Hungary, March 2012 Switzerland, November 2013 t
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Iceland, June 2013 Turkey, July 2012
India, June 2011 United Kingdom, February 2013
Indonesia, September 2012 United States, June 2012
Ireland, September 2013
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Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-dnk-2013-en. R
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Volume 2013/Supplement 3
ISSN 0376-6438
January 2014
2013 SUBSCRIPTION (18 ISSUES)
ISSN 1995-3151 J
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SUBSCRIPTION BY COUNTRY 9HSTCQE*caicbg+ n
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ISBN 978-92-64-20821-6 r
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10 2013 21 1 P 2
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OECD Economic Surveys:
Denmark
2013
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or
sovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundaries
andtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.
Pleasecitethispublicationas:
OECD(2014),OECDEconomicSurveys:Denmark2013,OECDPublishing.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco-surveys-dnk-2013-en
ISBN978-92-64-20821-6(print)
ISBN978-92-64-20820-9(PDF)
Series:OECDEconomicSurveys
ISSN0376-6438(print)
ISSN1609-7513(online)
OECDEconomicSurveys:Denmark
ISSN0376-6438(print)
ISSN1609-7513(online)
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TABLEOFCONTENTS
Table of contents
Executivesummary......................................................... 9
Assessmentandrecommendations........................................... 13
Growthisexpectedtopickupgradually.................................... 15
Enhancingfinancialstability ............................................. 20
Thefiscalframeworkhasbeenstrengthenedbutthestructure
oftaxationcanbeimproved.............................................. 24
Boostingproductivitygrowthisanoverarchingchallenge..................... 28
Bibliography............................................................ 39
AnnexA1.Publicdebtsustainability........................................ 42
AnnexA2.Progressinstructuralreforms.................................... 44
Chapter1.Tradespecialisationandpoliciestofostercompetitionandinnovation... 47
Productivitygrowthhasbeensluggish ..................................... 49
Tradespecialisationasasourceofgrowth.................................. 51
Fosteringcompetition ................................................... 59
Promotinginnovation ................................................... 63
FacilitatingSMEgrowthandinternationalisation............................ 71
Bibliography............................................................ 75
Annex1.A1.Denmark’sinnovationstrategy................................. 80
Chapter2.Makingthemostofskills........................................... 83
Assessingskills......................................................... 84
Developingskills........................................................ 86
Makinggooduseofskills................................................. 101
Activatingskillsmorebroadly ............................................ 108
Bibliography............................................................ 119
Boxes
1. Recommendationsonfinancialstability ................................ 24
2. Recommendationsonfiscalpolicy..................................... 28
3. Recommendationstofostercompetition,innovationandentrepreneurship... 34
4. Recommendationstomakethemostofskills ........................... 39
1.1. ProductivitycommissionsinselectedOECDcountries .................... 50
1.2. Globalisationandproductivity......................................... 52
1.3. Marketshareanalysis................................................ 54
1.4. RegulatoryreformoftheDanishbookmarket ........................... 60
1.5. Recommendationstofostercompetition,innovationandentrepreneurship... 75
2.1. MainfeaturesoftheDanishVETsystem................................ 93
2.2. Thereformoftheeducationgrantsystem............................... 97
OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:DENMARK2013©OECD2014 3
TABLEOFCONTENTS
2.3. Fundingofcompulsoryandtertiaryeducation........................... 98
2.4. Non-competeclausesinemploymentcontracts.......................... 106
2.5. The2012Danishtaxreform........................................... 108
2.6. Mainelementsofthe2013socialassistancereform ...................... 112
2.7. OrganisationofALMPsinDenmark .................................... 113
2.8. Recommendationstomakethemostofskills ........................... 118
Tables
1. Macroeconomicindicatorsandprojections.............................. 15
1.1. Labourproductivity,totalfactorproductivityandcapitaldeepening ........ 51
1.2. DestinationofDanishexports......................................... 53
1.3. Contributionofstructuralandperformanceeffectstototalexportmarket
sharesgrowth,1995-2007............................................. 54
1.4. Revealedcomparativeadvantageinmanufacturing ...................... 55
1.5. GazellesinNordiccountries........................................... 73
2.1. Legislationonnon-competeclausesinDenmarkandSweden ............. 106
2.2. Olderworkersscoreboard ............................................ 110
2.3. Characteristicsofrecipientsofsocialassistancebyagegroup.............. 112
Figures
1. Denmarkcomparesfavourablyonmanywell-beingdimensions ........... 13
2. Growthhasbeenweak ............................................... 14
3. Housepricesseemtohavebottomedout ............................... 16
4. Thelabourmarkethasdeteriorated.................................... 17
5. Pricecompetitivenesshasrecoveredsomewhat.......................... 18
6. Monetarypolicyhasbeenveryaccommodative.......................... 18
7. Denmark’sfiscalpositionisrelativelygood.............................. 19
8. GrosshouseholddebtisthehighestintheOECD......................... 20
9. Thebankingsectorisrelativelylarge................................... 21
10. Non-performingloansaresubstantial.................................. 22
11. Deferred-amortisationloansaddtofinancialsectorvulnerability .......... 23
12. Marginaltaxesonhigherincomesareelevated .......................... 25
13. Revenuesfromenvironmentaltaxesarehigh............................ 26
14. Publichealthandlong-termcareexpendituresareoncoursetorisesharply .. 27
15. TrendgrowthinrealGDPperhourworkedhasbeenweak................. 29
16. Investmentinknowledge-basedcapitalisrelativelyhigh.................. 29
17. AdultskillsinDenmarkarebelowthoseofotherNordiccountries ......... 30
18. Participationinglobalvaluechainsislessthanforsome
othersmallopeneconomies .......................................... 31
19. Theretailsectorishighlyregulated .................................... 32
20. PublicsupporttobusinessR&Disprovidedthroughbothtaxincentives
anddirectfunding................................................... 33
21. Arelativelylargeshareofyoungadultshavealowlevelofeducation....... 36
22. Theshareofhigh-skilledworkersinsomeprivateservicesisrelativelylow.. 37
A1.1. Publicdebtratiounderalternativescenarios ............................ 43
1.1. GapsinGDPpercapitaandproductivitytotheupperhalfofOECDcountries 48
1.2. GrowthinrealGDPperhourworked,totaleconomy...................... 49
1.3. Participationinglobalvaluechains .................................... 55
4 OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:DENMARK2013©OECD2014
TABLEOFCONTENTS
1.4. BilateraltradebalancebetweenDenmarkanditsmaintradingpartners .... 56
1.5. Restrictionsoninternationaltradeinservices........................... 57
1.6. Percapitaproductionandconsumption-basedCO emissions ............. 58
2
1.7. Renewableenergypatents ............................................ 58
1.8. Regulationintheretailsector ......................................... 60
1.9. Publicprocurementspending ......................................... 62
1.10. Comparativeperformanceofnationalscienceandinnovationsystems ..... 64
1.11. TotalfactorproductivitygrowthandbusinessR&Dintensity............... 65
1.12. Service-relatedtrademarkapplications................................. 65
1.13. Investmentintensityinknowledge-basedcapital ........................ 66
1.14. DirectgovernmentfundingofbusinessR&DandtaxincentivesforR&D .... 67
1.15. Firms’successrateinobtainingloans .................................. 70
1.16. Venturecapitalinvestment ........................................... 71
1.17. Innovationbysmallandmediumenterprises............................ 72
2.1. Proficiencyinkeyprocessingskillsaccording
totheOECDSurveyofAdultSkills ..................................... 85
2.2. Uppersecondaryeducationattainment................................. 87
2.3. PISAresultsforDenmarkandFinland.................................. 88
2.4. Learningoutcomesforimmigrantandnativestudentscompared .......... 89
2.5. Numberofteachinghoursperyear,bylevelofeducation ................. 90
2.6. Confidenceintheeducationsystem.................................... 91
2.7. Successfulcompletionofuppersecondaryprogrammes .................. 92
2.8. Tertiaryeducationattainment......................................... 95
2.9. Privateincentivestoinvestintertiaryeducation......................... 96
2.10. Participationinadulteducation,byliteracyproficiencylevel .............. 99
2.11. Shareofhigh-skilledworkerspersector ................................ 102
2.12. WorkingconditionsandpracticesinsomeEUcountries................... 103
2.13. Theuseofskillsatwork.............................................. 104
2.14. Distributionofworkersaccordingtojobtenure.......................... 105
2.15. Protectionofpermanentworkersagainstindividualandcollectivedismissal.. 105
2.16. Wagedevelopmentsintheprivateandpublicsectors..................... 107
2.17. Unemploymentandinactivitytraps.................................... 111
2.18. Gapsinlabourmarketperformancebetweennativesandforeign-born
inOECDcountries ................................................... 114
2.19. Changeintheproportionofhighlyeducatedimmigrants
amongrecentimmigrants ............................................ 116
2.20. Shareoftheworking-agepopulationreceivingdisabilitybenefits .......... 117
OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:DENMARK2013©OECD2014 5
This Survey is published on the responsibility of the Economic and
Development Review Committee (EDRC) of the OECD, which is charged with the
examinationoftheeconomicsituationofmembercountries.
The economic situation and policies of Denmark were reviewed by the
Committeeon27November2013.Thedraftreportwasthenrevisedinthelightof
the discussions and given final approval as the agreed report of the whole
Committeeon19December2013.
The Secretariat’s draft report was prepared for the Committee by
Stéphanie Jamet and Muge Adalet McGowan under the supervision of
VincentKoen.ResearchassistancewasprovidedbyLutéciaDaniel.
ThepreviousSurveyofDenmarkwasissuedinJanuary2012.
InformationaboutthelatestaswellaspreviousSurveysandmoreinformation
abouthowSurveysarepreparedisavailableatwww.oecd.org/eco/surveys.
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BASICSTATISTICSOFDENMARK,2012
(NumbersinparenthesesrefertotheOECDaverage)a
LAND,PEOPLEANDELECTORALCYCLE
Population(million) 5.6 Populationdensityperkm² 129.2 (34.3)
Under15(%) 17.7 (18.1) Lifeexpectancy(years,2011) 79.9 (80.0)
Over65(%) 17.4 (15.3) Men 77.8 (77.3)
Foreign-born(%,2011) 7.9 Women 81.9 (82.8)
Latest5-yearaveragegrowth(%) 0.4 (0.5) Latestgeneralelection September2011
ECONOMY
Grossdomesticproduct(GDP) Valueaddedshares(%)
Incurrentprices(billionUSD) 315.4 Primary 1.4 (2.5)
Incurrentprices(billionDKK) 1826 Industryincludingconstruction 21.8 (27.4)
Latest5-yearaveragerealgrowth(%) -0.9 (0.6) Services 76.8 (70.0)
Percapita,PPP(thousandUSD) 42.4 (37.2)
GENERALGOVERNMENT
PercentofGDP
Expenditure 59.4 (42.6) Grossfinancialdebt 59.3 (102.4)
Revenue 55.5 (36.2) Netfinancialdebt 7.3 (64.1)
EXTERNALACCOUNTS
Exchangerate(DKKperUSD) 5.8 Mainexports(%oftotalmerchandiseexports)
PPPexchangerate(USA=1) 7.7 Machineryandtransportequipment 23.9
InpercentofGDP Foodandliveanimals 16.4
Exportsofgoodsandservices 54.8 (53.8) Miscellaneousmanufacturedarticles 14.8
Importsofgoodsandservices 49.7 (50.4) Mainimports(%oftotalmerchandiseimports)
Currentaccountbalance 5.9 (-0.5) Machineryandtransportequipment 29.8
Netinternationalinvestmentposition 23.7 Miscellaneousmanufacturedarticles 15.8
(2011) Manufacturedgoods 13.9
LABOURMARKET,SKILLSANDINNOVATION
Employmentrate(%)for15-64year-olds 72.6 (65.0) Unemploymentrates(LabourForceSurvey,%)
Men 75.2 (73.1) Total(age15andover) 7.5 (7.9)
Women 70.0 (57.0) Youth(age15-24) 14.2 (16.2)
Averagehoursworkedperyear 1546 (1766) Long-termunemployed(1yearandover) 2.1 (2.7)
GrossdomesticexpenditureonR&D Tertiaryeducationalattainment 33.7 (31.5)
(%ofGDP,2011) 3.1 (2.4) 25-64year-olds(%,2011)
ENVIRONMENT
Totalprimaryenergysupply 3.1 (4.2) CO emissionsfromfuelcombustion
2
percapita(toe) percapita(tonnes,2011) 7.5 (10.0)
Renewables(%) 24.3 (8.5) Waterabstractionspercapita(1000m3,2009) 0.1
Fineparticulatematterconcentration 15.0 (20.1) Municipalwastepercapita(tonnes,2011) 0.7 (0.5)
(urban,PM ,µg/m3,2010)
10
SOCIETY
Incomeinequality(Ginicoefficient,2010) 0.252 (0.304) Educationoutcomes(PISAscore)
Relativepovertyrate(%,2010) 6.0 (10.9) Reading 496 (496)
Publicandprivatespending(%ofGDP) Mathematics 500 (494)
Healthcare(2011) 10.9 (9.5) Science 498 (501)
Pensions(2009) 8.2 (8.7) Shareofwomeninparliament 39.1 (25.8)
Education(excludingtertiary,2010) 4.8 (4.0) (%,September2013)
Netofficialdevelopmentassistance 0.8 (0.4)
(%ofGNI)
Betterlifeindex:www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org
a) WheretheOECDaggregateisnotprovidedinthesourcedatabase,asimpleOECDaverageoflatestavailabledataiscalculatedwhere
dataexistsforatleast29membercountries.
Source: Calculationsbasedondataextractedfromthedatabasesofthefollowingorganisations:OECD,InternationalEnergyAgency,
WorldBank,InternationalMonetaryFundandInter-ParliamentaryUnion.