OECD Economic Surveys.

119 Pages·2015·3.368 MB·English

by  OECD

OECD Economic Surveys O
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ITALY D
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SPECIAL FEATURES: LABOUR MARKET REFORM; MORE AND BETTER n
o OECD Economic Surveys
QUALITY JOBS m
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Most recent editions e ITALY
y
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Australia, December 2014 Israel, December 2013
Austria, July 2013 Italy, February 2015
Belgium, February 2015 Japan, April 2013
Brazil, October 2013 Korea, June 2014
Canada, June 2014 Latvia, February 2015
Chile, October 2013 Luxembourg, December 2012
China, March 2013 Mexico, January 2015
Colombia, January 2015 Netherlands, April 2014 V FEBRUARY 2015
o
Czech Republic, March 2014 New Zealand, June 2013 lu
Denmark, January 2014 Norway, March 2014 m
e
Estonia, January 2015 Poland, March 2014 2
Euro area, April 2014 Portugal, October 2014 0
1
5
European Union, April 2014 Russian Federation, January 2014 /
6
Finland, February 2014 Slovak Republic, November 2014
France, March 2013 Slovenia, April 2013
Germany, May 2014 South Africa, March 2013
Greece, November 2013 Spain, September 2014
Hungary, January 2014 Sweden, December 2012
Iceland, June 2013 Switzerland, November 2013
India, November 2014 Turkey, July 2014
Indonesia, September 2012 United Kingdom, February 2015
Ireland, September 2013 United States, June 2014
IT
Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-ita-2015-en. A
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Volume 2015/6 ISSN 0376-6438
2015 SUBSCRIPTION
February 2015
(18 ISSUES)
F
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ISBN 978-92-64-22875-7 9HSTCQE*ccihfh+ b
10 2015 05 1 P ru
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OECD Economic Surveys:
Italy
2015
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or
sovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundaries
andtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.
Pleasecitethispublicationas:
OECD(2015),OECDEconomicSurveys:Italy2015,OECDPublishing,Paris.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-ita-2015-en
ISBN978-92-64-22875-7(print)
ISBN978-92-64-22876-4(PDF)
Series:OECDEconomicSurveys
ISSN0376-6438(print)
ISSN1609-7513(online)
OECDEconomicSurveys:Italy
ISSN1995-3283(print)
ISSN1999-0340(online)
ThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityofthe relevantIsraeliauthorities.Theuse
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TABLEOFCONTENTS
Table of contents
BasicstatisticsofItaly,2013 ................................................. 7
Executivesummary......................................................... 9
Mainfindings........................................................... 10
Keyrecommendations................................................... 11
Assessmentandrecommendations........................................... 13
Aprolongedrecessionanduncertainprospects ............................. 17
Institutionalreformscanbethebasisforbetterpolicymakingandstronger
implementation ........................................................ 21
Recommendationstoboostefficiencythroughinstitutionalreform................. 26
Labourmarketandcompetitionreformstoimproveproductivity
andwell-being.......................................................... 26
Policyrecommendationsforthelabourmarketandcompetition................... 34
Addressingfiscalandfinancialchallenges.................................. 35
Recommendationsforfiscalandfinancialpolicies.............................. 40
References ............................................................. 41
Annex.Takingstockofstructuralreforms...................................... 43
Thematic chapters
Chapter1.Labourmarketreformformoreandbetterqualityjobs................. 51
Thelabourmarketsuffersfromstructuralproblems......................... 53
Thegovernment’slabourmarketreformpackage:Willitwork?................ 59
Moreandbetterqualityjobsinadynamicandinclusiveeconomy............. 73
Policyrecommendationsforjobcreationandjobquality......................... 87
References ............................................................. 88
Chapter2.Maintainingfiscalsustainability:Structuralfiscalissues............... 91
Taxation............................................................... 92
Spendingcontrol........................................................ 100
Recommendationsforstructuralfiscalpolicy.................................. 114
References ............................................................. 114
Boxes
1. Recentgovernmentmeasurestoincrease“FinanceforGrowth”............ 21
1.1. ThenewOECDmodellingframeworkforestimatingstructural
unemployment...................................................... 56
1.2. Employmentprotectionlegislationfordifferentemploymentcontracts
beforethereform.................................................... 61
OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:ITALY©OECD2015 3
TABLEOFCONTENTS
1.3. Unemploymentandsocialbenefitsystemintransition ................... 66
1.4. Structureofauthorities/institutionsandALMPs.......................... 69
1.5. Gendergapsinpaidandunpaidwork .................................. 77
1.6. Researchanddevelopment:Taxcreditsandthepatentbox................ 84
1.7. Supplyanddemandforskillsatthelocallevel........................... 86
2.1. Theenablinglawfortaxreform........................................ 96
Tables
1. ReformimpactsonthelevelofGDPinthemediumandlongruns.......... 17
2. TheEconomicOutlookto2016........................................... 18
3. Progressonstructuralreforms......................................... 24
4. Recentreformseasingregulationonlabourmarketcontracts
inselectedcountries................................................. 27
5. Fiscalconsolidationinsuccessivebudgets .............................. 36
6. Publicdebt,arrearsandcontingentliabilities,2013....................... 37
1.1. Stocktakingofrecentandcurrentlabourmarketreforms ................. 53
1.2. Recentreformseasingregulationonlabourmarketcontracts
inselectedcountries................................................. 64
1.3. Broadoutcomemeasuresofjobqualityandtheirsubcomponents.......... 87
2.1. Costtocompaniesofdealingwiththetaxsystem........................ 96
2.2. Componentsofpublicspending ....................................... 102
2.3. Sub-nationalgovernmentspending,2013............................... 109
Figures
1. Lackofgrowthislinkedtolowscoresonwell-being...................... 14
2. Lowproductivityhasledtopoorcompetitiveness,highunemployment
andrisingdebt...................................................... 15
3. Recessionhaswidenedtheregionaldivide.............................. 19
4. Banklendinghasbeendeclining,whileinterestratesremainhigh
forprivateborrowers................................................. 20
5. ALMPspendingisrelativelylowandconcentratedonsomecategories...... 29
6. Thetaxwedgeforlow-incomeworkersishigh........................... 31
7. Lowgasprices,highelectricityprices .................................. 33
8. Carbonintensityindexoftheenergymix ............................... 34
9. Theunderlyingprimarybudgetsurplusisnowlarge...................... 35
10. Debtwilldeclineifthebudgetremainsbalanced......................... 37
11. VATGapestimatesintheEU26countries,2012........................... 39
1.1. Italy’spotentialoutputhasstagnatedmostlyduetoweakproductivity ..... 54
1.2. Unemploymentishighandincreasingespeciallyamongyouth ............ 54
1.3. Labourforceparticipationislowespeciallyamongwomen
andolderpeople..................................................... 55
1.4. Largedifferencesinactivityandunemploymentacrossregions............ 55
1.5. OECDestimatesofstructuralunemploymentandtheoutputgapdiffer
fromtheEuropeanCommission ....................................... 57
1.6. Limitedemploymentprospectsfortemporaryworkers ................... 58
1.7. Bothearningsandhouseholdincomeinequalityhaveincreased ........... 59
1.8. Socialtransfersarecurrentlypoorlytargeted............................ 60
4 OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:ITALY©OECD2015
TABLEOFCONTENTS
1.9. Employmentprotectionlegislationforpermanentworkershasbeen
restrictive .......................................................... 62
1.10. Allocationoflabourtothemostproductivefirmsislimited ............... 63
1.11. Jobmismatchandunder-qualificationaresignificantinItaly.............. 64
1.12. Incomesupportforthelong-termunemployedisveryweakinItaly........ 67
1.13. ALMPspendingisrelativelylowandconcentratedonsomecategories...... 69
1.14. Labourmarketinstitutionsaffectwagesfordifferentcategories............ 72
1.15. Wagesaremoreelasticfornewhiresthanincumbentworkers............. 73
1.16. TaxwedgeishighinItalyespeciallyamonglow-incomeearners ........... 75
1.17. Womendomoreunpaidworkthanmen................................ 77
1.18. Educationalattainmentislow......................................... 79
1.19. Returnsfromeducationarelow ....................................... 80
1.20. Numberofstart-upsislimitedanddeclining............................ 81
1.21. Manystart-upsdonotgrowmuch ..................................... 82
1.22. Resourcesdonotflowtomoreinnovativefirms.......................... 83
1.23. Skillssupplyanddemand,Italiansub-regions,2009...................... 86
2.1. PublicspendingisrelativelyhighinItaly................................ 93
2.2. VATGapestimatesintheEU26countries,2012........................... 94
2.3. Taxexpendituresareexpensive........................................ 97
2.4. Unpredictablepropertytaxation....................................... 99
2.5. Cutsintotaldiscretionaryspending,whileotherspendingrises ........... 100
2.6. Lowpublicinvestment ............................................... 101
2.7. Highpayforsomecivilservants....................................... 106
2.8. Theshareofsub-nationalspendingisbelowtheoverallOECDaverage...... 109
OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:ITALY©OECD2015 5
This Survey is published on the responsibility of the Economic and
Development Review Committee of the OECD, which is charged with the
examinationoftheeconomicsituationofmembercountries.
The Economic situation and policies of Italy were reviewed by the Committee
on12January2015.Thedraftwasrevisedinthelightofthediscussionsandgiven
finalapprovalastheagreedreportofthewholeCommitteeon30January2015.
TheSecretariat’sdraftreportwaspreparedfortheCommitteebyPaulO’Brien
and Yosuke Jin under the supervision of Patrick Lenain. Hermes Morgavi and
JosetteRabesona provided statistical research assistance, and Brigitte Beyeler
provided administrative support. The Survey also benefited from contributions
by Willem Adema, Jonathan Barr, Ivana Capozza, Chiara Criscuolo and
FedericaMaiorano.
ThepreviousSurveyofItalywasissuedinMay2013.
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BASICSTATISTICSOFITALY,2013
(NumbersinparenthesesrefertotheOECDaverage)a
LAND,PEOPLEANDELECTORALCYCLE
Population(million) 61.2 Populationdensityperkm2 203.0 (34.7)
Under15(%) 14.0 (18.2) Lifeexpectancy(years,2012) 82.3 (80.2)
Over65(%) 20.9 (15.6) Men 79.8 (77.5)
Foreign-born(%,2012) 9.4 Women 84.8 (82.9)
Latest5-yearaveragegrowth(%) 0.4 (0.6) Latestgeneralelection February2013
ECONOMY
Grossdomesticproduct(GDP) Valueaddedshares(%)
Incurrentprices(billionUSD) 2149 Primarysector 2.3 (2.6)
Incurrentprices(billionEUR) 1619 Industryincludingconstruction 23.3 (26.9)
Latest5-yearaveragerealgrowth(%) -1.5 (0.8) Services 74.4 (70.5)
Percapita(000USDPPP) 34.7 (38.1)
GENERALGOVERNMENT
PercentofGDP
Expenditure 50.5 (42.6) Grossfinancialdebt 144.0 (110.2)
Revenue 47.7 (36.7) Netfinancialdebt 117.5 (69.9)
EXTERNALACCOUNTS
Exchangerate(EURperUSD) 0.753 Mainexports(%oftotalmerchandiseexports)
PPPexchangerate(USA=1) 0.762 Machineryandtransportequipment 34.6
InpercentofGDP Manufacturedgoods 18.4
Exportsofgoodsandservices 28.6 (53.4) Miscellaneousmanufacturedarticles 17.6
Importsofgoodsandservices 26.3 (49.4) Mainimports(%oftotalmerchandiseimports)
Currentaccountbalance 1.0 (-0.1) Machineryandtransportequipment 22.7
Netinternationalinvestmentposition -30.0 Mineralfuels,lubricantsandrelatedmaterials 19.9
Chemicalsandrelatedproducts,n.e.s. 15.4
LABOURMARKET,SKILLSANDINNOVATION
Employmentratefor15-64year-olds(%) 55.6 (65.2) Unemploymentrate,LabourForceSurvey(age15andover)(%) 12.2 (7.9)
Men 64.8 (73.1) Youth(age15-24,%) 40.0 (16.1)
Women 46.5 (57.4) Long-termunemployed(1yearandover,%) 6.9 (2.7)
Participationratefor15-64year-olds(%) 64.4 (71.1) Tertiaryeducationalattainment25-64year-olds(%,2012) 15.7 (32.2)
Averagehoursworkedperyear 1752 (1771) GrossdomesticexpenditureonR&D(%ofGDP,2012) 1.3 (2.4)
ENVIRONMENT
Totalprimaryenergysupplypercapita(toe) 2.5 (4.2) CO2emissionsfromfuelcombustionpercapita(tonnes,2012) 6.2 (9.7)
Renewables(%) 15.8 (8.8) Waterabstractionspercapita(1000m3,2008) 0.9
Fineparticulatematterconcentration(urban,PM10,µg/m3,2011) 33.8 (28.0) Municipalwastepercapita(tonnes,2010) 0.5 (0.5)
SOCIETY
Incomeinequality(Ginicoefficient,2010) 0.321 (0.308) Educationoutcomes(PISAscore,2012)
Relativepovertyrate(%,2010) 13.0 (11.1) Reading 490 (496)
Medianequivalisedhouseholdincome(000USDPPP,2010) 21.1 (20.4) Mathematics 485 (494)
Publicandprivatespending(%ofGDP) Science 494 (501)
Healthcare(2012) 9.2 (9.2) Shareofwomeninparliament(%,December2014) 30.6 (26.8)
Pensions(2011) 17.1 (8.7) Netofficialdevelopmentassistance(%ofGNI) 0.17 (0.37)
Education(primary,secondary,postsec.nontertiary,2011) 3.1 (3.9)
Betterlifeindex:www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org
a) WheretheOECDaggregateisnotprovidedinthesourcedatabase,asimpleOECDaverageoflatestavailabledataiscalculatedwhere
dataexistforatleast29membercountries.
Source: Calculationsbasedondataextractedfromthedatabasesofthefollowingorganisations:OECD,InternationalEnergyAgency,
WorldBank,InternationalMonetaryFundandInter-ParliamentaryUnion.