Observing Global Climate Change

577 Pages·1998·55.709 MB·English

by  Cracknell, Arthur P., Kondratʹev, Kirill Jakovlevič

Observing Global
Climate Change

Observing Global
Climate Change
K. YA. K O N D R ATYEV
St Petersburg, Russia
A. P. C R A C K N ELL
Dundee, UK
CRC Press
Taylor & Francis Group
Boca Raton London New York
CRC Press is an imprint of the
Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
UK Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon 0X14 4RN
USA Taylor & Francis Inc, 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA
Copyright © Taylor & Francis Ltd 1998
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue reeord for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN 0 7484 0124 5 (eased)
Library of Congress Cataloging Publication Data are available
Cover design by Jim Wilkie
Contents
Preface page vii
Acknowledgements ix
Abbreviations xi
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 The factors involved in climate change 5
1.3 Natural factors affecting climate change 11
1.4 Nuclear war and climate 24
1.5 The World Climate Programme 25
1.6 On the perspective concept of climate change studies 33
2 The observed regularities of climate 39
2.1 The CO2 cycle and global-scale climate changes from observational
data 39
2.2 Detecting the CO2 signal 75
2.3 A global system of observations 95
3 The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) 141
3.1 Fundamental principles of the WCRP 142
3.2 The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) 148
4 Principal climatically-important processes 157
4.1 Cloudiness and radiation 157
4.2 Processes in the ocean 198
4.3 The Arctic, the Antarctic and climate 206
4.4 Land surface processes 232
4.5 Optically-active minor gaseous components 249
4.6 Aerosols and climate 270
4.7 Solar-terrestrial interrelations 291
4.8 Development, verification and application of climate models 312
4.9 The comparative climatology of planets 319
CONTENTS
5 The internal variability of the climatic system 327
5.1 Climate diagnostics 327
5.2 The theory of short-term climate changes 343
5.3 The Sections programme 358
5.4 The world ocean and climate 365
5.5 Nested climate models 381
6 External impacts on the climatic system 387
6.1 Carbon dioxide and climate 387
6.2 The multifaceted nature of the atmospheric greenhouse effect 419
6.3 Volcanoes and climate 449
7 Conclusion 487
References 493
Index 553
Preface
The question of anthropogenic effects on the Earth’s climate is a topic of intense
interest in the worlds of science, politics, and human affairs. For any informed social
and political discussion of this topic, it is necessary to draw on the conclusions of
appropriate scientific research. It is now clear that one cannot consider anthropo­
genic effects in isolation; one must simultaneously consider natural changes in the
climate. In order to gain an understanding of the nature of climate change, one must
thus consider the whole climatic system - the atmosphere, the biosphere, the hydro­
sphere, the lithosphere and the cryosphere, in all their complexity - and the ways in
which natural and anthropogenic activities act and influence that system.
To achieve this understanding, one must develop fully both observations and
numerical modelling. There is a fundamental difficulty with the former: a combined
system of satellite and conventional {in situ) observations is required to obtain
global-scale representative data sets for sufficiently long periods of time. In this
context, the first meteorological satellite, TIROS-1, was only launched on 1 April
1960, and it has since taken considerable time and effort to improve the quality of
data and to broaden the range of parameters retrieved from satellite measurement
using the various techniques of remote sensing; this effort is of course still going on
today. The World Meteorological Organization has recently decided to develop a
Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), which, it is proposed, and if funding
permits, will include components such as a Global Ocean Observing System
(GOOS) and a Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS). It will be some time
before a sufficiently complete long-term series of important climatic parameters can
be obtained via the combination of conventional and satellite observing systems.
We note, in this context, that the first phase of the climate-oriented Earth Observing
System (EOS) Programme is likely to begin with the new millennium.
The understanding of climate change can only come from an intensive study of
the fundamental physics of the processes involved in the climatic system’s behav­
iour. Problematically, the set of equations that one obtains, and the details of the
boundary conditions that these equations must satisfy, are so complicated that an
analytical solution of the equations is not feasible; one must resort to numerical
techniques. Thus the development of climate predictions or forecasting involves the
use of simulation modelling, which despite its recent rapid development is not yet
PREFACE
mature. Even the most sophisticated and complex three-dimensional global climate
models are still able to simulate only certain basic climate features, because they are
frequently incomplete with regard to the consideration - the parametrization - of
numerous climatically-significant processes. On the other hand, substantial progress
has been made in the assessments of the nature of climate changes, including
anthropogenic impacts, during the preparation of reports for the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Houghton et al. 1990, 1992). Equally valuable
were the initatives within the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). Finally, we should note the
outstanding contribution made by the Second United Nations Conference on the
Environment and Development, convened in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in June 1992.
It is in this context that we have written this book. We have set out to combine
considerations of physical principles and the results of observation and numerical
modelling. Whilst we have emphasized recent research, we have not ignored earlier
studies of significance. We have used as a foundation K. Ya. Kondratyev’s Global
Climate, published in Russian in St Petersburg, Russia, in 1992. We have completely
revised the text, drawing on material from the IPCC reports, particularly the Scien­
tific Assessment produced by the first of the IPCC’s three Working Groups, without
seeking to reproduce this material in toto, as, although these reports provide an
overview and summary of knowledge, they deviate from our concern with the fun­
damental principles of naturally- and anthropogenically-induced climate change,
and they are easily accessible to the interested reader. We worked on the prep­
aration for this book through 1993 and 1994; in early 1996 we included a brief
allusion to the IPCC report Climate Change 1995 (Houghton et al 1996).
We are confident that this book will be useful not only for professionals but also
for any person wishing to inform their understanding of the problems of climate
change.
K. YA. KONDRATYEV AND A. P. CRACKNELL
Athens, St Petersburg and Dundee
1994-1996
Acknowledgements
We should like to acknowledge the hospitality of those institutions who helped us
to consult references and sources, or to consult each other, in particular the Climate
Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, the Library of University College
London, and the Laboratory of Meteorology within the Department of Applied
Physics at the University of Athens.
We should also like to thank Mrs A. P. Kostrova for her translation work on the
original Russian text; and Helen Piccou and Lora Sharpies of Taylor & Francis Ltd
for their creation - and partial rescue! - and revision of the electronic version of the
manuscript, from which this book has been typeset.