Nuclear Tests: Long-Term Consequences in the Semipalatinsk/Altai Region

201 Pages·1998·6.03 MB·English

by  Dr. Peter J. Coughtrey (auth.)

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2. Environment - VoI. 36
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH
Nuclear Tests
Long-Term Consequences
in the Semipalatinsk/Altai Region
Edited by
Charles S. Shapiro
San Francisco State University, Department of Physics
San Francisco, CA 94 132, USA
Valerie 1. Kiselev
Eugene V. Zaitsev
Institute of Regional Medical and Ecological Problems
P.O. Box 4663, 5 Lenin Avenue
Barnaul 656043, Russia
With 65 Figures and 58 Tables
Springer
Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop "Long-Term
Consequences of Nuclear Tests for the Environment and Population Health
(Semipalatinsk/Altai Case Study)", held in Barnaul, Russia, September
5-10,1994
Library 01 Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Nuclear tests : long-term consequencesin the semipalatinsk / Altai region / edited by Charles
S. Shapiro, Valerie 1. Kiselev, Eugene V. Zaitsev.
p. cm. - (NATO ASI series, Partnership sub-series 2. Environment; voI. 36) "Published in co
operation with NATO Scientilic Allairs Division." "Proceedings 01 the NATO Advanced Research
Workshop "Long-term consequences 01 nuclear tests lor the environment and population health
(Semipalatinsk/Atai case study)", held in Barnaul, Russia, September 5-10, 1994' - T.p. verso.
Includes bibliographical relerences.
ISBN 978-3-642-63723-0 ISBN 978-3-642-58776-4 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-58776-4
1. Nuclear weapons - Testing - Health aspects - Kazakhstan - Semei - Congresses.
2. Nuclear weapons - Testing - Health aspects Russia - Altalskii kral - Congresses.
3. Radiation dosimetry - Congresses.
1. Shapiro, Charles S., 1936-.
II. Kiselev, Valerie 1., 1942-.
III. Zaitsev, Eugene V., 1968-.
VI. North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Scientilic Affairs Division.
V. Series: NATO ASI series. Partnership sub-series 2, Environment; v. 36.
RA569.N836 1998 616.9'897'009573-dc21 97-39008 CIP
ISBN 978-3-642-63723-0
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© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1998
Originally published by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York in 1998
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1998
Typesetting: Camera-ready by authors/editors
SPIN: 10475150 31/3137 - 5 4 3 210 - Printed on acid-Iree paper
PREFACE
This volume focuses on the human exposures and medical effects studies in the
SemipaiatinskJ Altai region of Siberia that were a consequence of the radioactive fallout from
nuclear test explosions that took place at the Semipalatinsk Test Site of the former Soviet
Union. It contains a detailed account of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop (ARW)
devoted to the subject, and a selection of the papers presented. The title of the ARW was
"Long-term Consequences of Nuclear Tests for the Environment and Population Health
(SemipaiatinskJAltai Case Studies)". The estimated exposures to large numbers of people in the
Altai lie in an important dose rate and dose domain. Hence the research reported herein
provides new and unique information on the effects of radiation on humans. Also emphasized at
the ARW were studies involving fallout from the Pacific Island tests of the U.S.A ..
There have been over 2300 nuclear weapon test explosions to date. More than 500 took
place in the atmosphere and outer space; the remainder were underground. The atmospheric
tests comprise the largest source of anthropogenic radioactivity released into the earth's
atmosphere to date. The vast majority, in number and yield, were carried out by the former
Soviet Union (FSU) and the United States. Each superpower maintained two primary test sites,
one continental primarily for small yield tests, and the other more remote for larger yield tests.
For the U.S.A., these were the Nevada Test Site (total yield of all atmospheric tests there was
about 1 megaton), and the Pacific Test Site (total yield about 150 megatons). For the FSU,
there was Semipalatinsk (total yield of atmospheric tests about 6.6 megatons), and Noviya
Zernla (about 240 megatons). The principal hazard from nuclear test explosions to humans is
from local (early) fallout from atmospheric ground and near -ground bursts. Local fallout was
the primary focus of the workshop. A much lower-level dose to individuals is from global
delayed fallout from ground and air bursts. Human exposure from contained underground
bursts occurs only when the radioactivity vents from the surface, which has occurred on
numerous occasions. Limited studies of migration from contained underground tests indicate
very slow movement, and hence only a potential human hazard in the long term.
The Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) is an international
non-governmental organization with a mandate to advance knowledge on the interactions
between man and the environment and to provide an independent source of information to
government and other bodies. RADTEST (Radiation From Nuclear Test Explosions), one of
several SCOPE programs, is an international study focusing on the local dispersion and effects
on humans of radioactivity released from the testing of nuclear weapons for military and
peaceful purposes. The first NATO/SCOPE-RADTEST Advanced Research Workshop (ARW)
was held during 10-14 January in 1994 at the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna,
Austria. Sponsored by the Scientific and Environmental Affairs Division of NATO, the
emphasis in that workshop was to present an overall review of the nuclear testing programs of
VI
both superpowers, including recently declassified new materials. Also presented was the US.
Department of Energy offs ite dose reconstruction program for the Nevada Test Site (NTS).
During the Vienna workshop, plans were proposed to hold a second NATO/SCOPE-RADTEST
ARW in Barnaul, Siberia, to focus on the SemipalatinsklAltai region of the former Soviet Union,
and also the Pacific test sites of the US.A.. This second NATO ARW, to which this book is
devoted, was also funded by the Scientific and Environmental Affairs Division of NATO and by
the Russian State Altai Project. The workshop was held in the city of Barnaul in Siberia during
5-10 September 1994 and included a field trip to the Semipalatinsk test site in Kazakhstan.
About 65 experts from 12 countries attended the five-day workshop, including representatives
of NATO, IAEA, UNSCEAR, IIASA, IUR, and SCOPE.
This volume begins with a brief summary of the Siberian NATO/ARW written by the
Conference Rapporteur, Dr. Peter Coughtrey. This is followed by a much more detailed
overview of the workshop written by the Russian editors, Prof Valerie Kiselev and Dr. Eugene
Zaitsev. These overviews contain summaries of significant presentations by the western and
FSU experts. Also included is a selection of the papers, chosen by the editors, of those
presented by the Russian researchers that focus on the Altai related research. There were other
important presentations at the workshop which for various reasons do not appear here, such as
prepublication, or lack of timely availability in a suitable format. To obtain copies of papers not
included here, the reader can refer to the complete list of workshop presentations, and the list of
names and addresses of the participants. The reader is also referred to a recent special issue of
the Journal Health Physics, Vo1.73, No.1, (July 1997), which is devoted to a reassessment of the
US.A. Pacific test area exposures and effects.
One of the major findings of the RADTEST project is that from all of the testing
conducted, fallout from only a handful of the atmospheric ground and near-ground bursts
accounted for most of the collective exposures from local fallout to downwind human
populations. These few were primarily tests conducted at an early date in the testing programs.
One could surmise from this that the scientists involved learned from these early experiences, and
were then better able to minimize human exposures in future tests. For the US.A, a significant
test was shot "Harry" at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) in 1953, which accounted for about 75% of
the doses to residents of St. George, Utah. Some of these residents (45 people) were in the
highest exposure group (10 to 15 Roentgens) reported in the US. Dept. of Energy NTS civilian
dose reconstruction project. "Harry" contributed almost 50010 of the total NTS. offs ite exposure
from all tests, which was about 86,000 person-Roentgens. A more recent post-workshop press
release (August 1,1997) from the US. National Cancer Institute indicates significant thyroid
exposures from iodine 131 from NTS testing. The most critical group was children aged 3
months to 5 years with high levels of milk consumption, receiving thyroid doses from 0.30 to 0.95
gray in scattered areas primarily in the western U.S.A.
VII
Castle Bravo (February 28, 1954) in the U.S. Pacific test site, a 15 megaton surface-level
thermonuclear test, resulted in average whole-body doses of about 1 to 2 Sieverts to of the order
of 300 people. Thyroid doses from radioiodines were very high, from 2 to 50 gray. The
casualties included one direct fatality from acute radiation exposure, a crew member on a
Japanese fishing boat inadvertently caught in the fallout plume.
The most egregious event by far in terms of collective dose to humans from local fallout
was in the FSU. This test, called "Joe One" in the West, was the very first Soviet atomic bomb
test that took place on a tower on August 29, 1949 at Semipalatinsk in Kazakhstan, near the
border of the Russian Siberian area called the Altai. Here, individual and collective exposures to
civilian populations in nearby towns of Kazakhstan and the Altai were of an order of magnitude
higher than for any other weapon test. Current estimates are that about 10,000 people received
effective doses (external plus internal) that averaged about 1 Sievert, and 40,000 people
averaged 0.25 Sv. Other tests at Semipalatinsk that have been extensively studied were those of
September 24, 1951, August 12, 1953, August 24, 1956, and August 7, 1962. The exposures
from these tests, while significant in themselves, pale in comparison to the 1949 test. The total
Altai exposure from all tests at Semipalatinsk is estimated at 3.7 x 104 Person-Sievert, with "Joe
One" contributing 85% of this. This collective dose to local populations is comparable in order
of magnitude to the estimates for the Chernobyl accident and for the southern Urals exposures.
The exposures from these singular events that occurred almost 50 years ago at
Semipalatinsk, were kept secret until the period of glasnost and the recent breakup of the FSU.
When the extent of these very unfortunate exposures became better understood, the government
of Russia instituted a large program of study and research to reach understanding, promote
rehabilitation of the affected area, and provide restitution to its victims. Indeed, the Russian
State Altai Program, along with the Chernobyl accident, and the exposures from the weapon
production facilities in the southern Urals, comprise the three large programs involving
radioactive contamination on which the Russian government has concentrated its efforts.
We have emphasized in this collection the more recent research results of the Russian
experts, because much of this material is new to the world community, and also because the
results of this research include rather startling estimates of doses and health effects in the Altai
region. It is therefore prudent to point out that the reaction from the western experts present to
some of these results, was to offer words of caution. This is reflected somewhat in the
Rapporteur's Report written by Peter Coughtrey (UK). John Boice (U.S.A), in his
presentation, summarized the rather large body of knowledge of radiation effects on humans
built up over the decades, and suggested that this generally accepted knowledge cannot be
ignored. Albrecht Kellerer pointed out that some of the results presented on medical effects in
the Altai, appear to be in conflict with this previous body of knowledge. He considered that
much of the epidemiological data presented at the ARW comprised "descriptive" statistics, and
VIII
he emphasized the need for "analytical" statistics. Kellerer suggested contradictory statements
be resolved by international collaborations using the best available methods for both dose
reconstruction and health studies. What is clear from the workshop presentations is that there
were high exposures of large numbers of people, and that one can compare dose estimates
reported here with new methods of biological dosimetry. These include examining chromosome
aberrations, GP A mutations, tooth enamel and dentin. Assessments of health effects and their
correlation to exposures will be more difficult. Further epidemiological studies will be essential
in view of the widespread belief in Russia that the health effects in the Altai are grave and are
caused by exposures.
The Altai research reported herein contains much new and excellent work in a new and
potentially important domain of dose and dose rate. It is clear that there are questions
concerning some of the results in dose reconstruction and health effects, and these papers should
be considered as "works in progress". The Siberia NATO ARW has helped delineate the issues,
and point to future studies to narrow uncertainties and resolve questions. Plans were made to
hold the third RADTEST workshop in Liege, Belgium, with primary sponsorship from the
European Union. The focus at Liege would be to review the possibilities for these studies, and
work out protocols for those who will be involved.
Charles S. Shapiro
RADTEST Executive Director
San Francisco, California
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The realization of this NATO Advanced Research Workshop as a part of the SCOPE
RADTEST project involved important contributions from many individuals and institutions.
The editors wish to express their deep appreciation to those who provided their time, skills,
knowledge, and resources to make possible this cooperative international workshop.
We would like to express our gratitude to Mr. Alexander S. Surikov, Head of the Altai
Region Legislative Assembly, Mr. Lev A. Korshunov, Head of the Altai Region Administration,
Mr. Vladimir S. Germanenko, First Deputy of the Head of the Altai Region Administration, Mr.
Vladimir S. Chekunkov, Head of the Committee of the Altai Region Administration on
Elimination of Consequences of the Nuclear Tests at the Semipalatinsk Test Site, and Mr.
Vladimir N. Bavarin, Mayor of Barnaul, for financial and organizational support of the
workshop.
Coordination of science-related matters is gratefully acknowledged for preparation of the
workshop by Prof Valentin A. Koptyug, President of the Siberian Branch of the Russian
Academy of Science, and Prof Valery A. Trufakin, President of the Siberian Branch of the
Russian Academy of Medical Sciences. In all aspects associated with holding the meeting, the
activities of Professor Yakov N. Shoikhet, Head of Science of the Semipalatinsk Test
Site/Altai's Russian Federal Program and Co-chair of the workshop, have been critical to the
success of the workshop and merit special recognition.
The RADTEST Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC) chaired by Sir Frederick Warner,
and the RADTEST Executive Committee (EC) chaired by Prof Charles Shapiro, helpfully
guided this project throughout its evolution. The members of these committees are listed in the
Introduction. Particular appreciation and acknowledgement are given to Academician Yuri
Izrael, Academician Valentin Koptyug and Yuri Tsaturov for their active role in the project. Sir
Frederick Warner's support throughout was critical to the project. He was instrumental in the
raising of project funds, in overseeing the SCOPE-RADTEST administration office, and in
providing constant guidance and leadership in all phases of the project.
Appreciation is due to Luis Vega da Cunha and the NATO Scientific Affairs Division for
sponsoring this NATO Advanced Research Workshop. Dr. da Cunha provided continuous
guidance for the workshop, and for the post workshop assessment and dissemination activities.
Prof Yakov Shoikhet served as the ARW co-chair, and helped plan the technical
program. Prof Valerie Kiselev did an outstanding job in making all the workshop local
arrangements in Barnaul and providing wonderful hospitality to the participants.
Alexei Ryaboshapko played an important role throughout this project. He served on the
RADTEST Executive Committee, acted as the official SCOPE representative to the project, and
was very instrumental in the gathering and the editing of the Russian papers.
Lynn Anspaugh played an important role as the U.S.A. RADTEST chairman, and helped
to plan the U.S. technical program for the workshop. Yuri Tsaturov served as the Russian
RADTEST chairman, and helped to plan some of the Russian technical program for the
workshop.
x
Peter Coughtrey has been most generous of his time and expertise in serving as a general
advisor to the RADTEST project, and in serving as the workshop scientific rapporteur. Rene
Kirchmann has provided continuous help to RADTEST in all of its phases.
Linda Appleby supervised the SCOPE-RADTEST project's administrative office at
Essex University in the u.K. She was at the center of the project, arranging for this workshop,
travel, issuing newsletters, dealing with the daily communications, and assisting in many diverse
and important ways. She was assisted in this work by Marie Chan.
RADTEST was sponsored by SCOPE, and appreciation is due to the SCOPE Executive
Committee for their guidance. This was a SCOPE project throughout. From the initial proposal
at the SCOPE General Assembly in Seville (1992), to the organizational meetings in Beijing with
the Chinese SCOPE national committee, and in Moscow with the Russian SCOPE national
committee, SCOPE people and infrastructure facilitated the project. Special thanks are due to
Phillip Bourdeau, the President of SCOPE, and to Veronique Plocq-Fichelet, the Executive
Director of SCOPE.
A number of individual aided in the preparation and editing of this book. These include
Maureen Duncan, Amy Henke, Cyndi Brandt, Mark Ciotola, and Christine Pend!. Special
appreciation is expressed to Eugene Zaitsev, Vitali Maxikov, Irina Doljenko, and Boris
Yurjevich for translating the Russian papers into English, and to Phillip Mattson for editing the
English translations of the Russian papers. Many thanks are due to Christiane Jose for her
skillful final editing and finishing of the "camera-ready" manuscript.
It is with regret that we note the passing of Academician Valentine Koptyug. As Vice
President of SCOPE, President of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and
as a member of the RADTEST SAC, Professor Koptyug gave immeasurable support to the
project by hosting the first organizational meetings in his Moscow office, in the planning of the
workshops, and in representing RADTEST in meetings at NATO, the European Union, and
SCOPE. We shall miss you, Valentine.
Finally, we express our appreciation to San Francisco State University, Lawrence
Livermore National Laboratory, and the Institute of Medical and Ecological Problems, Barnaul,
for partial support of this work.
Charles S. Shapiro Valerie I. Kiselev Eugene V. Zaitsev