Nuclear Proliferation in Northeast Asia: The Quest for Security PDF
Preview Nuclear Proliferation in Northeast Asia: The Quest for Security
N P UCLEAR ROLIFERATION N A IN ORTHEAST SIA This page intentionally left blank N P UCLEAR ROLIFERATION N A IN ORTHEAST SIA The Quest for Security Andrew O’Neil Nuclear Proliferation in Northeast Asia Copyright ©Andrew O’Neil, 2007. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2007 978-1-4039-7466-2 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quo- tations embodied in critical articles or reviews. First published in 2007 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN™ 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 and Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, England RG21 6XS. Companies and representatives throughout the world. PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin’s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. ® Macmillan is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-53540-8 ISBN 978-0-230-60707-1 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230607071 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data O’Neil, Andrew. Nuclear proliferation in Northeast Asia : the quest for security / Andrew O’Neil. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-349-53540-8 1. Nuclear nonproliferation—East Asia. 2. Security, International. I. Title. JZ5675.O54 2007 327.1’747095—dc22 2007003835 A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by Scribe Inc. First edition: October 2007 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 This book is dedicated to my mother, Denise Elizabeth Mielonen (1943–2002) This page intentionally left blank C ONTENTS Acknowledgments ix Abbreviations xi Introduction 1 Part I Framework 11 Chapter 1 Northeast Asia’s Security Order 13 Chapter 2 The Failing Strategy of Nuclear Nonproliferation 35 Part II Two Case Studies 55 Chapter 3 Can a Nuclear-Armed North Korea Be Managed? 57 Chapter 4 China and Japan: Is Nuclear Coexistence Possible? 79 Part III Future Directions 103 Chapter 5 Northeast Asia’s Nuclear Future: 105 The Quest for Security Conclusion 125 Appendix The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of 129 Nuclear Weapons (NPT) Notes 135 Bibliography 167 Index 193 This page intentionally left blank A CKNOWLEDGMENTS I owe many thanks to a range of individuals who have helped shape this book in different ways. Robert Ayson, James Manicom, and Alex Stephens each took the time to read carefully through the entire manuscript and provided invaluable comments. Vlado Vivoda prepared the index with impressive efficiency and helped proofread the final version. Curt Andressen, Martin Griffiths, Richard Leaver, Rod Lyon, and Michael Wesley read through early drafts of the manuscript and offered insightful comments on a range of issues for which I am very grateful. Thanks also to Peter Burns, Dave Cox, and Bill Tow for moral support over the life of the project. I am also indebted to students at Flinders University, the Australian Defence College, the Australian National University, and the University of Queensland for their willingness to listen to many of the hypotheses and arguments contained in this book. Some suffered in silence, but many pro- vided beneficial feedback and criticism that helped to influence my thinking as the development of the book evolved. The School of Political and Inter- national Studies at Flinders University provided a wonderful working envi- ronment in which to complete the book manuscript between 2005 and 2007. I would particularly like to thank George Crowder, Maryanne Kelton, Anthony Langlois, and Haydon Manning for their encouragement. Thanks are also due to Anthony Wahl at Palgrave Macmillan for his pro- fessional help and advice during the book proposal and manuscript prepara- tion stages. I would also like to thank Kristy Lilas at Palgrave and Dale Rohrbaugh at Scribe for all of their invaluable guidance during the produc- tion process. Finally, I would like to thank my wife, Jo Fox, and our two children, Han- nah and Matilda, for their love and support. They are a constant source of joy and inspiration that helps to keep perspective on the important things in life. Parts of the book draw on two previously published articles in Taylor and Francis journals: “Learning to Live with Uncertainty: The Strategic Implica- tions of North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Capability,” Contemporary Security Policy 26, no. 2 (August 2005): 317–34; and “Nuclear Proliferation and Global Security: Laying the Groundwork for a New Policy Agenda,” Com- parative Strategy24, no. 4 (October–November 2005): 343–59. Any errors or flaws in what follows are exclusively my responsibility.
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