Nuclear energy : rebirth or resuscitation?

92 Pages·2009·2.262 MB·English

by  Squassoni, Sharon A

Nuclear Energy:
Rebirth or
Resuscitation?
Sharon Squassoni
© 2009 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.
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CONTENTS
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
Nuclear Energy: Rebirth or Resuscitation?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
The “Nuclear Renaissance” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Energy Security and Nuclear Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Climate Change and Nuclear Power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Nuclear Energy’s Contribution to Mitigating Global Climate
Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Particular Challenges of Nuclear Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Global Capacity Factors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Where Might Nuclear Energy Expand? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Proliferation Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Policy Priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Steps to Mitigate the Risks of Nuclear Proliferation . . . . . . . . . . . 72
About the Author. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
iii

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I have benefited greatly from the advice, reviews, and comments
provided by these generous experts in the field: Tom Cochran, Charles
Ferguson, Trevor Findlay, Alan Hanson, Mark Hibbs, Mark Holt, Jes-
sica Mathews, George Perkovich, Miles Pomper, Carl Stoiber, and Walt
Kirchner. Any errors or omissions are, however, my own. The maps
presented in this report were funded by the Nonproliferation Policy
Education Center. I would also like to thank Nima Gerami and Georgina
Jones for their able assistance in both researching and creating graph-
ics for this report.
v

SUMMARY
After several decades of disappointing growth, nuclear energy seems
poised for a comeback. Talk of a “nuclear renaissance” includes per-
haps a doubling or tripling of nuclear capacity by 2050, spreading nuclear
power to new markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, and
developing new kinds of reactors and fuel-reprocessing techniques. But
the reality of nuclear energy’s future is more complicated. Without major
changes in government policies and aggressive financial support, nuclear
power is actually likely to account for a declining percentage of global
electricity generation.
Projections for growth assume that government support will com-
pensate for nuclear power’s market liabilities and that perennial issues
such as waste, safety, and proliferation will not be serious hurdles. Be-
fore embarking on such a path, policy makers need to achieve greater
certainty across a wide range of issues. In the meantime, all possible
efforts should be made to minimize the risks of any nuclear expansion
that might occur. These include strengthening the rules of nuclear com-
merce and transparency, deemphasizing the element of national pres-
tige with respect to nuclear energy, undertaking clear-eyed assessments
of all available options for generating electricity, and limiting the ac-
quisition of sensitive nuclear technologies like uranium enrichment
and spent-fuel reprocessing.
vii

NUCLEAR ENERGY:
REBIRTH OR RESUSCITATION?
Enthusiasm for nuclear energy is on the rise worldwide. After two
decades of disappointing growth, industry leaders are forecasting a
nuclear renaissance. Predictions of a “nuclear renaissance” envision a
doubling or tripling of nuclear capacity by 2050, spreading nuclear power
to new markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, and developing
new kinds of reactors and fuel-reprocessing techniques. During the presi-
dency of George W. Bush, the United States promoted nuclear energy
both at home and abroad. Programs like the 2006 Global Nuclear En-
ergy Partnership and President Bush’s 2007 joint declaration with then–
Russian president Vladimir Putin to facilitate and support nuclear en-
ergy in developing countries have helped underwrite the notion of a
major worldwide nuclear revival.
Renewed interest in nuclear energy arises from the desire to find
alternatives to expensive oil and natural gas as well as the perception
of nuclear energy as a readily deployable option for making the rapid
and dramatic reductions in carbon dioxide emissions necessary to miti-
gate climate change. Energy security and climate change are invariably
mentioned as the top two reasons for pursuing nuclear energy today.
A major expansion of nuclear power, however, is not a foregone
conclusion. The traditional challenges besetting nuclear energy—cost,
safety, waste, and proliferation—continue to limit widespread growth.
Government policies supporting nuclear energy would be necessary to
make major expansion a reality. In considering whether or not to pro-
mote nuclear energy, a starting point for analysis is whether nuclear
energy can really make a significant difference for energy security and
for climate change mitigation.
This report suggests that nuclear power could provide greater di-
versity of electricity resources, but will not solve the dilemma of de-
pendence on foreign oil. Moreover, few countries can expect more than
interdependence when it comes to nuclear energy because of the exist-
ing nuclear supply structure and location of uranium resources.
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