NRC. Effects of nuclear earth-penetrator and other weapons

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Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons��
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CONTENTS i
Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator
and Other Weapons
Committee on the Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council,
whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and
the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences
and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by funding from the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology, and
Logistics), the National Nuclear Security Administration, and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency under Contract No.
HDTRA-04-C-0004 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. Any opinions,
findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect
the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other

Weapons�

Committee on the Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator

and Other Weapons, National Research Council�

ISBN: 0-309-55106-4, 150 pages, 8 1/2 x 11, (2005)

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Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons��
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in
scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general
welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to
advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy
of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a
parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members,
sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy
of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and
recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent
members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts
under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal
government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is
president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad commu-
nity of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government.
Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating
agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the
government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies
and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National
Research Council.
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COMMITTEE ON THE EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR EARTH-PENETRATOR
AND OTHER WEAPONS
JOHN F. AHEARNE, Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society, Chair
LYNN R. ANSPAUGH, University of Utah School of Medicine
RODNEY C. EWING, University of Michigan
STEVEN A. FETTER, University of Maryland
RICHARD L. GARWIN, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Fellow Emeritus
SYDELL P. GOLD, Science Applications International Corporation
EUGENE G. GREWIS, Tijeras, New Mexico
THEODORE M. HARDEBECK, Science Applications International Corporation
RAYMOND JEANLOZ, University of California at Berkeley
WILLIAM J. PATTERSON, Albuquerque, New Mexico
GLORIA S. PATTON, Lake Oswego, Oregon
HEINZ W. SCHMITT, Albuquerque, New Mexico
EUGENE SEVIN, Lyndhurst, Ohio
C. BRUCE TARTER, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Director Emeritus
ROBERT H. WERTHEIM, San Diego, California
Staff
JAMES E. KILLIAN, Study Director, National Materials Advisory Board
MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer, Naval Studies Board
SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Coordinator, Naval Studies Board
IAN M. CAMERON, Research Associate, Naval Studies Board
SIDNEY G. REED, JR., Consultant, Naval Studies Board
v
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Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons��
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Preface
Section 1033 of the Bob Stump National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2003 (Public
Law 107-314) directed the Secretary of Defense to request that the National Research Council study the
anticipated health and environmental effects of nuclear earth-penetrator and other weapons. Upon
request from the Department of Defense, the National Research Council established the Committee on
the Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons (see Appendix A). This report is the product
of that committee of technical experts. Some of the material used for this study is classified, and the
committee has produced an unclassified report plus a separate classified annex.
Nuclear earth-penetrator weapons, such as those described as robust nuclear earth penetrator (RNEP)
weapons, are controversial. Part of the controversy has been about whether a nuclear earth-penetrator
could be designed to defeat a deeply buried hard target but not cause any collateral surface damage, such
as that attributable to fallout. Another question is whether chemical and biological agents can be
defeated by conventional weapons. The committee developed its report in what it believes is a logical
approach to address these issues.
To gather information for this report, the committee received briefings from the Department of
Defense (DOD), the Department of Energy (DOE), congressional staff, nongovernmental organizations,
and individuals, in classified and open sessions. This input included information on potential targets,
such as their numbers, location, functions, hardening characteristics, and contents. The committee also
received information on after-action investigations in Afghanistan and Iraq. The committee requested
that the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
(LLNL) estimate the numbers of casualties for a range of nuclear weapons’ yields and depths of burst
for several target areas. Calculations also were done in order to generate lethality contours to estimate
numbers of casualties resulting from attacks with non-nuclear weapons on facilities producing or storing
weapons of mass destruction.
vii
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viii PREFACE
The committee thanks the many briefers who presented information essential to the writing of this
report. They are listed in the agendas provided in Appendix B. Donald Linger of DTRA was consistently
helpful, and his deep knowledge greatly assisted our work. Todd Hann, Andrew Grose, Brian Hall, and
Michael Phillips of DTRA and Theodore Harvey and Frank Serduke of the LLNL devoted substantial
effort to produce the calculations that the committee needed. The committee also thanks Milton
Minneman of the DOD, our project liaison, who assisted in obtaining reports needed for the study.
Finally, the committee thanks the dedicated staff of the National Research Council: Dixie Gordon,
who resolved the many difficulties associated with handling classified material; Susan Campbell, who
capably saw to the logistics for our many meetings over a short period of time and helped with report
production; Ian Cameron, who supported the conduct of the meetings and also the production of the
report; and, in particular, our study director, James Killian, who kept the study on track and provided
invaluable support to the committee members and to me.
John F. Ahearne, Chair
Committee on the Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator
and Other Weapons
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons��
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11282.html
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and
technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report
Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments
that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the
report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge.
The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the delibera-
tive process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
James L. Bacon, Pine Bluff, Arkansas,
Sidney D. Drell, Stanford University,
Daniel J. Fink, Potomac, Maryland,
David R. Franz, Midwest Research Institute,
Thomas A. Griffy, University of Texas at Austin,
Michael M. May, Stanford University,
Fred Mettler, Jr., University of New Mexico,
Richard Mies, Science Applications International Corporation,
Bruce Napier, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and
George M. Whitesides, Harvard University.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they
were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the
report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Hyla S. Napadensky, Napadensky
Energetics, Inc. (retired), and Chris G. Whipple, ENVIRON International Corporation. Appointed by
the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examina-
tion of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review
comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely
with the authoring committee and the institution.
ix
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons��
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Contents
SUMMARY 1
1 INTRODUCTION 9
Background, 9
Statement of Task, 10
Committee’s Understanding and Assumptions, 11
Organization and Content of This Report, 11
Notes, 12
2 HARD AND DEEPLY BURIED TARGETS 13
Basic Definitions, 14
Basic Facts and Estimates, 14
Examples of Strategic Hard and Deeply Buried Targets, 15
3 EARTH-PENETRATOR WEAPONS 18
Earth-Penetrator Technology Background, 18
Empirical Equations for Predicting Penetration Capability, 22
Maximum Credible Depths of Penetration, 25
W61 System, 26
B61-11 Earth-Penetrating Bomb, 26
Current Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator Program, 27
Notes, 28
xi
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Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons��
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xii CONTENTS
4 EFFECTIVENESS OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS AGAINST HARD AND DEEPLY
BURIED TARGETS 30
Target Destruction, 30
Target Damage Probability Estimates, 39
Attachment 4.1: Probability of Damage Calculator, 42
Attachment 4.2: Influence of Target Hardness and Weapons Accuracy, 43
Notes, 50
5 FALLOUT AND TOOLS FOR CALCULATING EFFECTS OF RELEASE OF
HAZARDOUS MATERIALS 52
Nuclear Bursts and Fallout Overview, 52
Calculating the Effects of Release of Hazardous Materials, 58
Tools to Estimate Casualties and Other Effects, 59
Sources of Uncertainty Affecting Model Predictions, 61
Suggestions for Improving Tools, 64
Attachment 5.1: Elements of Defense Threat Reduction Agency Codes and Data, 64
Notes, 72
6 HUMAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS 73
Effects on Humans, 73
Health Effects from Attacks on Facilities for Storing and Producing Nuclear Weapons
and Radioactive Material, 91
Environmental Effects, 92
Effects of Attacks on Chemical and Biological Weapons Facilities, 93
Notes, 95
7 CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS 99
Notes, 102
8 UNCERTAINTY IN ESTIMATES OF EFFECTS 103
Sources of Uncertainty, 104
Measures of Uncertainty: Sensitivity, Precision, and Accuracy, 106
Summary, 108
Notes, 109
9 CONCLUSIONS 110
Most Important Conclusions, 110
Other Conclusions, 111
Note, 114
APPENDIXES
A Committee and Staff 117
B Agendas 122
C Equivalent Yield Factors for Energy Coupling 130
D Acronyms and Abbreviations 132
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.