Nomic Truth Approximation Revisited

344 Pages·2019·4.83 MB·English

by  Theo A. F. Kuipers

Synthese Library 399
Studies in Epistemology, Logic, Methodology,
and Philosophy of Science
Theo A. F. Kuipers
Nomic Truth
Approximation
Revisited
Synthese Library
Studies in Epistemology, Logic, Methodology,
and Philosophy of Science
Volume 399
Editor-in-chief
Otávio Bueno, University of Miami, Department of Philosophy, USA
Editors
Berit Brogaard, University of Miami, USA
Anjan Chakravartty, University of Notre Dame, USA
Steven French, University of Leeds, UK
Catarina Dutilh Novaes, VU Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Theo A. F. Kuipers
Nomic Truth Approximation
Revisited
Theo A. F. Kuipers
Department of Theoretical Philosophy
University of Groningen
Groningen, The Netherlands
Synthese Library
ISBN 978-3-319-98387-5 ISBN 978-3-319-98388-2 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-98388-2
Library of Congress Control Number: 2018952386
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019
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Contents
1 Background and Overview ..................................................................... 1
1.1 B ackground: Extensions, Related Kinds of Reasoning,
and a Far- Reaching Generalization .............................................. 1
1.2 T he Main Conclusions of From Instrumentalism
to Constructive Realism ............................................................... 3
1.3 O verview of the Chapters ............................................................ 7
1.4 O rigin of the Chapters ................................................................. 14
1.5 C omparison with Other Approaches Needed .............................. 16
References ................................................................................................. 18
Part I C loser to the Nomic Truth, Basic Version
2 Nomic Truth Approximation by Empirical Progress Revisited .......... 21
2.1 Introduction .................................................................................. 22
2.2 The Basic Story ............................................................................ 24
2.3 The Stratified Story ...................................................................... 34
2.4 Conclusion ................................................................................... 38
References ................................................................................................. 38
3 Perspectives and Guidelines for Theories of (Nomic)
Truth Approximation by Empirical Progress ....................................... 41
3.1 Introduction .................................................................................. 41
3.2 Perspectives for Concretization ................................................... 42
3.2.1 The Two-Sided Approach ............................................. 42
3.2.2 Quantification ............................................................... 43
3.2.3 Refinement .................................................................... 44
3.2.4 Stratification .................................................................. 45
3.2.5 Revising the Vocabulary ............................................... 46
3.3 G uidelines for Theories of (Nomic) Truth
Approximation by Empirical Progress ........................................ 46
3.4 C ommon Core of Theories of Nomic Truth
Approximation by Empirical Progress ........................................ 47
v
vi Contents
3.4.1 Ad I: General Logico-Semantic Step: Intentional
Description of the Target .............................................. 48
3.4.2 Ad. III: General Epistemological Step: Identify
the Kind of Evidence .................................................... 49
3.4.3 Hypothetico-Deductive Background of Nomic
Evidence ....................................................................... 50
References ................................................................................................. 51
4 Models, Postulates, and Generalized Nomic Truth Approximation ... 53
4.1 Introduction .................................................................................. 54
4.2 A n Example of a Two–Sided Theory ........................................... 56
4.3 I I Specific Logico-Semantic Steps: Define
‘Closer to the Truth’ .................................................................... 57
4.3.1 Theories, Their Claims, and ‘The Truth’ ...................... 58
4.3.2 Truth– and Falsity–Content .......................................... 59
4.3.3 Closer to the Truth (Greater Verisimilitude
or Greater Truthlikeness) .............................................. 60
4.4 I V Specific Epistemological Steps: Define
‘More Successful’ ........................................................................ 62
4.4.1 Accepted- and Rejected-Content .................................. 63
4.4.2 At Least as Successful Relative to <R, S> .................... 64
4.5 R emaining Steps: From Verisimilitude to Success,
and Vice Versa .............................................................................. 65
4.6 S ome Perspectives for Further Research ..................................... 67
4.6.1 Inconsistent Theories .................................................... 67
4.6.2 Research Programs ....................................................... 67
4.6.3 Disjunctive Nomic Theories ......................................... 68
References ................................................................................................. 68
Part II Concretizations
5 Quantitative Nomic Truth Approximation ........................................... 71
5.1 Introduction .................................................................................. 72
5.2 Basic Quantitative Versions ......................................................... 72
5.2.1 Amounts of Truth-Content, Falsity-Content
and Verisimilitude ......................................................... 73
5.2.2 Quantitative Comparative Definitions
of Verisimilitude and Empirical Success ...................... 75
5.2.3 Expected Success Theorem .......................................... 78
5.3 G eneralized Purely Quantitative Definitions ............................... 80
5.4 Concluding Remarks ................................................................... 83
References ................................................................................................. 83
Contents vii
6 Refined Nomic Truth Approximation .................................................... 85
6.1 Introduction .................................................................................. 86
6.2 T he Main Definitions and the Refined Success Theorem ............ 87
6.3 A Summary in Tables................................................................... 90
6.4 Idealization and Concretization ................................................... 91
6.4.1 Truth Approximation by (Idealization and)
Concretization ............................................................... 91
6.4.2 Application to Gas Models ........................................... 97
6.4.3 Validity Research .......................................................... 98
6.5 Some Evaluation .......................................................................... 99
6.5.1 The Value of Content for Truths 100
6.5.2 The (Dis-)Value of Content for Falsehoods .................. 100
6.5.3 Application to Actual Truth Approximation ................. 103
6.5.4 Some Other Principles .................................................. 105
References ................................................................................................. 107
7 Stratified Nomic Truth Approximation ................................................. 109
7.1 Introduction .................................................................................. 110
7.2 B asic Truth Approximation on the Theoretical Level,
and Its Observational Consequences. .......................................... 110
7.2.1 The Stratified Success Theorem ................................... 110
7.2.2 The Theoretical Realization (TR–)Principle
and Reference ............................................................... 116
7.2.3 Remaining Methodological Steps ................................. 118
7.3 Q uantitative and Refined Stratified Nomic
Truth Approximation ................................................................... 119
7.3.1 Quantitative Stratified Nomic Truth Approximation .... 119
7.3.2 Refined Stratified Nomic Truth Approximation ........... 122
References ................................................................................................. 126
Part III Extensions
8 Theories Looking for Domains. Nomic Truth Approximation
by Domain Revision ................................................................................ 129
8.1 Introduction .................................................................................. 130
8.2 Truth Approximation by Theory Revision ................................... 131
8.2.1 The Main Lines of Truth Approximation
by Theory Revision ....................................................... 132
8.2.2 Analogy with Design Research .................................... 134
8.3 T ruth Approximation by Domain Revision ................................. 135
8.3.1 Closer to the Truth About One Domain
than About another ........................................................ 135
8.3.2 More Successful Relative to One Domain
than to Another ............................................................. 136
8.3.3 A Synthesis of Revisions .............................................. 137
viii Contents
8.4 I n Search of Applications of ‘Truth approximation
by Domain Revision’ ................................................................... 138
8.4.1 Domain Restriction and Extension ............................... 139
8.4.2 Other Kinds of Domain Revision ................................. 140
8.4.3 Domain Revision by Definition Revision ..................... 141
8.5 Concluding Remarks ................................................................... 143
8.5.1 Dialectical Interaction ................................................... 144
8.5.2 Kuhn-Loss ..................................................................... 144
References ................................................................................................. 145
9 Beauty, a Road to the Truth? ................................................................. 147
9.1 Introduction .................................................................................. 148
9.1.1 Some Examples and Preliminary Considerations ......... 149
9.1.2 Outline of the Paper ...................................................... 150
9.1.3 Some Limitations and Specifications ............................ 151
9.2 A esthetic Induction and Exposure Effects ................................... 152
9.2.1 Exposure Effects and Aesthetic Appreciation ............... 153
9.2.2 Aesthetic Induction in Science ..................................... 155
9.3 Truthlikeness ................................................................................ 158
9.4 T ruth Approximation with the Aid of Empirical Criteria ............ 163
9.5 T he Importance of Empirical and Aesthetic Considerations ....... 165
9.6 T he Role of Aesthetic Features .................................................... 169
9.7 S uggestions for Further Research ................................................ 173
9.8 Conclusion ................................................................................... 177
References ................................................................................................. 178
Part IV Reasoning Around Nomic Truth Approximation
10 Abduction Aiming at Empirical Progress or Even Truth
Approximation: A Challenge for Computational Modelling .............. 183
10.1 Introduction .................................................................................. 183
10.2 A nalysis of the Empirical Progress Task ..................................... 185
10.3 Analysis of the Truth Approximation Task .................................. 186
10.4 R elations Between Empirical Progress and (Kinds of)
Truth Approximation ................................................................... 188
10.5 The Remaining Instrumentalist Task ........................................... 189
10.6 AI-Prospects for Computational Approaches
to Instrumentalist Abduction ........................................................ 191
10.7 L ogical Prospects for Computational Approaches
to Instrumentalist Abduction ........................................................ 193
10.8 Concluding Remarks ................................................................... 195
References ................................................................................................. 195
Contents ix
11 Inference to the Best Theory, Rather Than Inference to the Best
Explanation. Kinds of Abduction and Induction ................................. 197
11.1 Introduction .................................................................................. 198
11.1.1 Background .................................................................... 198
11.1.2 Terminology ................................................................... 200
11.1.3 Outline of the Chapter ................................................... 201
11.2 U nstratified Inference to the Best Theory .................................... 202
11.2.1 Preliminaries .................................................................. 202
11.2.2 Inference to the Best Theory, Rather Than
the Best Explanation ...................................................... 204
11.2.3 IBT as a Kind of Abduction ........................................... 205
11.3 S tratified Inference to the Best Theory ........................................ 207
11.3.1 Stratification ................................................................... 207
11.3.2 Stratified Inferences ....................................................... 208
11.3.3 Epistemological Positions and IBT ............................... 209
11.4 I nference to the Best Referential Claim ....................................... 210
11.4.1 Referential Truth Approximation ................................... 210
11.4.2 Inference to the Referential Claim
of the Best Theory.......................................................... 212
11.5 Three Types of Induction ............................................................. 215
11.5.1 Observational Induction ................................................. 215
11.5.2 Theoretical Induction ..................................................... 216
11.5.3 Referential Induction ..................................................... 217
11.5.4 Benevolent Explications of IBE and ILC ...................... 218
11.6 Concluding Remarks ................................................................... 218
11.7 Discussion .................................................................................... 220
References ................................................................................................. 222
12 Pragmatic Aspects of Truth Approximation ......................................... 225
12.1 Introduction .................................................................................. 225
12.2 Overall Pragmatism ..................................................................... 226
12.3 H D-Testing of General Test Implications of Theories ................. 228
12.4 Separate HD-Evaluation of Theories ........................................... 229
12.5 Comparative HD-Evaluation of Theories .................................... 230
12.6 A pplication of the Rule of Success .............................................. 231
12.7 Truth Approximation ................................................................... 232
12.8 R esulting Relativization of Falsification ...................................... 235
12.9 R esulting Relativization of Confirmation .................................... 236
12.10 Concluding Remarks ................................................................... 237
References ................................................................................................. 237
13 Empirical Progress and Nomic Truth Approximation
by the ‘Hypothetico- Probabilistic Method’ ........................................... 239
13.1 Introduction .................................................................................. 240