No Sure Victory This page intentionally left blank No Sure Victory MEASURING U.S. ARMY EFFECTIVENESS AND PROGRESS IN THE VIETNAM WAR Gregory A. Daddis 1 Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offi ces in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Th ailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Copyright © 2011 by Gregory A. Daddis Published by Oxford University Press, Inc. 198 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016 www.oup.com Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Daddis, Gregory A., 1967– No sure victory : measuring U.S. Army eff ectiveness and progress in the Vietnam War / Gregory A. Daddis. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-19-974687-3 (acid-free paper) 1. Vietnam War, 1961–1975—United States 2. United States. Army—Evaluation. 3. United States. Army—History—Vietnam War, 1961–1975. I. Title. DS558.2.D34 2011 959.704′3420973—dc22 2010027311 1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper To my father, Robert G. Daddis This page intentionally left blank Contents Acknowledgments ix List of Abbreviations xiii Maps xv Introduction 3 1. Of Questions Not Asked: Measuring Eff ectiveness in the Counterinsurgency Era 1 9 2. Measurements Without Objectives: America Goes to War in Southeast Asia 39 3. An “Unprecedented Victory”: Th e Problem of Defi ning Success 6 3 4. Metrics in the Year of American Firepower 87 5. “We Are Winning Slowly but Steadily” 109 6. Th e Year of Tet: Victory, Defeat, or Stalemate? 133 7. “A Time for Testing” 157 8. Soldiers’ Interlude: Th e Symptoms of Withdrawal 181 9. Staggering to the Finish 201 Conclusion 223 Notes 237 Bibliography 303 Illustration Credits 327 Index 329 This page intentionally left blank Acknowledgments in 2005, the command group of the Multi-National Corps-Iraq (MNC-I) asked West Point’s Department of History to compose vignettes on past counterinsur- gencies that might inform current U.S. military operations in Iraq. As part of the project, a colleague and I draft ed two short essays, one on the French-Indochina War, another on the American war in Vietnam. Our department head collected the ten or so papers and dispatched them to Baghdad. Weeks later, a Special Forces group commander, recently arrived in Iraq for his second combat tour in as many years, responded to our work by asking for any useful information on measuring progress in a counterinsurgency environment. I thought it unusual at fi rst that a senior offi cer was struggling to delineate metrics aft er having so recently served in Iraq. I found quickly, however, that the inquiry proved much more complex than I fi rst had assumed. As I conducted research on how the U.S. Army in Vietnam dealt with such a problem, the more sympathetic I became to the group commander’s query. Four years later, I had the privilege of serving as the command historian for MNC- I. In the interim I continued working on the historical question of how a conven- tional army measured its progress and eff ectiveness in an unconventional environment. From my perspective as both a historian and a professional offi cer, this underemphasized aspect of the Vietnam War seemed to anticipate facets of warfare in the early twenty-fi rst century. In Iraq, I saw fi rsthand the diffi culties commanders ix
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