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News Hole In recent decades, turnout in US presidential elections has soared, education levels have hit historic highs, and the Internet has made information more accessible than ever. Yet during that same period, Americans have grown less engaged with local politics and elections. Drawing on detailed analysis of 15 years of reporting in more than 200 local newspapers, along with election returns, surveys, and interviews with journalists, this study shows that the demise of local journalism has played a key role in the decline of civic engagement. As struggling newspapers have slashed staff, they have dramatically cut their coverage of mayors, city halls, school boards, county commis- sions, and virtually every aspect of local government. In turn, fewer Americansnowknowwhotheirlocalelectedofﬁcialsare,andturnout in local elections has plummeted. To reverse this trend and preserve democratic accountability in ourcommunities, the local news industry mustbereinvigorated–andsoon. Danny Hayes is Professor in the Department of Political Science, GeorgeWashingtonUniversity. JenniferL.LawlessistheLeoneReevesandGeorgeW.SpicerProfessor intheDepartmentofPolitics,UniversityofVirginia. COMMUNICATION, SOCIETY AND POLITICS Editor W.LanceBennett,UniversityofWashington FoundingCo-Editor,Emeritus RobertM.Entman,TheGeorgeWashingtonUniversity Politicsandrelationsamongindividualsinsocietiesacrosstheworldarebeingtrans- formed by new technologies for targeting individuals and sophisticated methods for shaping personalized messages. The new technologies challenge boundaries of many kinds – between news, information, entertainment, and advertising; between media, withthearrivaloftheWorldWideWeb;andevenbetweennations.Communication, SocietyandPoliticsprobesthepoliticalandsocialimpactsofthesenewcommunication systemsinnational,comparative,andglobalperspective. Other Books in the Series: ErikAlbæk,ArjenvanDalen,NaelJebril,andClaesdeVreese,Political JournalisminComparativePerspective EvaAnduiza,MichaelJamesJensen,andLaiaJorba,eds.,DigitalMediaand PoliticalEngagementWorldwide:AComparativeStudy C.EdwinBaker,MediaConcentrationandDemocracy:WhyOwnershipMatters C.EdwinBaker,Media,Markets,andDemocracy W.LanceBennettandRobertM.Entman,eds.,MediatedPolitics: CommunicationintheFutureofDemocracy RodneyBenson,ShapingImmigrationNews:AFrench-AmericanComparison BruceBimber,InformationandAmericanDemocracy:Technologyinthe EvolutionofPoliticalPower BruceBimber,AndrewFlanagin,andCynthiaStohl,CollectiveActionin Organizations:InteractionandEngagementinanEraofTechnologicalChange CliffordG.Christians,MediaEthicsandGlobalJusticeintheDigitalAge LynnS.ClarkandReginaMarchi,YoungPeopleandtheFutureofNews PeterDahlgren,MediaandPoliticalEngagement,Citizens,Communicationand Democracy MurrayEdelman,ThePoliticsofMisinformation FrankEsserandBarbaraPfetsch,eds.,ComparingPoliticalCommunication: Theories,Cases,andChallenges MyraMarxFerree,WilliamAnthonyGamson,JürgenGerhards,andDieter Rucht,ShapingAbortionDiscourse:DemocracyandthePublicSpherein GermanyandtheUnitedStates HernanGalperin,NewTelevision,OldPolitics:TheTransitiontoDigitalTVin theUnitedStatesandBritain TimGroeling,WhenPoliticiansAttack:PartyCohesionintheMedia (ContinuedaftertheIndex) News Hole The Demise of Local Journalism and Political Engagement DANNY HAYES GeorgeWashingtonUniversity JENNIFER L. LAWLESS UniversityofVirginia UniversityPrintingHouse,Cambridge28,UnitedKingdom OneLibertyPlaza,20thFloor,NewYork,10006,USA 477WilliamstownRoad,PortMelbourne,3207,Australia 314–321,3rdFloor,Plot3,SplendorForum,JasolaDistrictCentre, NewDelhi–110025,India 103PenangRoad,#05–06/07,VisioncrestCommercial,Singapore238467 CambridgeUniversityPressispartoftheUniversityofCambridge. ItfurtherstheUniversity’smissionbydisseminatingknowledgeinthepursuitof education,learning,andresearchatthehighestinternationallevelsofexcellence. www.cambridge.org Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781108834773 :10.1017/9781108876940 ©DannyHayesandJenniferL.Lawless2021 Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements, noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress. Firstpublished2021 AcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. 978-1-108-83477-3Hardback 978-1-108-81984-8Paperback CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracy ofURLsforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredtointhispublication anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuchwebsitesis,orwillremain, accurateorappropriate. Contents List of Figures page vii List of Tables ix Acknowledgments xi 1 The LocalPolitical Engagement Puzzle 1 2 The Great Gutting of US Newspapers 15 3 Where Local News Has Suffered Most 41 4 As LocalNewsGoes, So Goes Political Engagement 63 5 EveryoneLosesWhen Local News Declines 90 6 Saving Local News 108 7 Local Newsand American Democracy 137 Appendix A:Interviews withReporters and Editors atLocal Newspapers 145 Appendix B:Stafﬁng Data atRegional Newspapers 147 Appendix C:Newspaper SamplingforLocalPoliticsContent Analysis 149 Appendix D: Newspapers Included in the Local Politics Content Analysis 152 Appendix E:Content Analysis ofLocalNews Coverage 159 Appendix F:Content Analysisof TV News Coverage 165 Appendix G: Analysisof Internet Start-Ups 167 Appendix H: The Cooperative Congressional ElectionStudy Data, 2016–2019 169 Appendix I:Mayoral Election Turnout Data 177 v vi Contents Appendix J:Google Trends Data 181 Appendix K: Citizen Engagement inCongressional Elections 183 Appendix L:Arlington and Charlottesville Exit Polls 193 References 199 Index 209 Figures 2.1 US newspaper circulation, 1940–2018 page 17 2.2 US newspaper advertising revenue, 1956–2018 19 2.3 Newsroom employees atUS newspapers, 2004–2018 20 2.4 Changesinnewsstaffatselected regionalpapers,2000–2009 22 2.5 The decline ofthe news hole 26 2.6 The decline ofnews coverage 27 2.7 The shrinking news hole and the decline ofnews coverage 29 2.8 The decline oflocal politics and other topics as a share of the news hole 31 2.9 Coverage of local politics on local TV 34 2.10 The founding dates of local news start-ups 37 2.11 Local news start-ups, by state 38 3.1 The size of the news hole,by newspaper circulation 46 3.2 Percentage ofpaperswith decreases in coverage asa share of the news hole, by circulation size 50 3.3 Types of local politics coverage as ashare of the news hole 54 3.4 Percent reduction in coverage as ashare of the news hole, by circulation size 55 4.1 Local newspaperconsumption and local political engagement 69 4.2 Newspaper reading versus local TV viewing and local political engagement 71 4.3 The relationshipbetween mayoralturnout and local newspapercoverage 74 4.4 Googlesearches and local politics coverage 78 vii viii List of Figures 4.5 The relationship between news coverage and citizen engagement inUS House elections 82 4.6 The effects ofnews coverage on citizen engagement in US House elections 83 4.7 Effect ofa changein US House campaign coverage on engagement 87 5.1 Changesinfollowinglocalnewsovertime,bycollegeeducation 95 5.2 Mayoral turnout and news coverage, by collegeeducation 98 5.3 City government searchesandnews coverage, by college education 99 5.4 Correct placement ofthe Democratic US House candidate to theleft ofthe Republican, by college education 101 5.5 Effects of reading a local newspaper on engagement, by college education 102 5.6 Effects of news coverage on engagement inUS House elections,by college education 104 5.7 Effect ofshiftsin US House campaign coverage,by college education 105 6.1 Demographic gapsin following local news 113 6.2 Impressions of local versus national politics 116 6.3 Views of what makes someone agood citizen 117 6.4 The relationship between local news consumption and attitudesaboutlocal politics 118 6.5 Share ofrespondents “very likely” to click City Council story, by experimental condition 124 6.6 Differences intreatment effects based on respondent attitudesaboutlocal politics 127 6.7 Share ofvoters signingup fora local news digest inexit polls 131 6.8 Average experimental treatment effects, by age group 134 6.9 Share ofvoters signingup fora local news digest in exit polls, by age group 135