New York Murder Mystery: The True Story Behind the Crime Crash of the 1990s

337 Pages·2000·1.3 MB·English

by  Andrew Karmen

New York Murder Mystery

?
Andrew Karmen
NEW YORK
MURDER MYSTERY
The True Story behind
the Crime Crash
of the 1990s
•
a
New York University Press
New York and London
To the 32,600 New Yorkers
who were murdered
between 1978 and 1998
NEW YORK UNIVERSITY PRESS
New York and London
Copyright © 2000 by New York University
All rights reserved
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Karmen, Andrew.
New York murder mystery : the true story behind the
crime crash of the 1990s / Andrew Karmen.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-8147-4717-5 (cloth : alk. paper)
1. Murder—New York (State)—New York. 2. Crime prevention—
New York (State)—New York. 3. Police—New York (State)—New York.
4. Criminals—New York (State)—New York. I. Title.
HV6534.N5 K367 2000
364.15'23'097471—dc21 00-010007
New York University Press books are printed on acid-free paper,
and their binding materials are chosen for strength and durability.
Manufactured in the United States of America
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
CONTENTS
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xv
List of Abbreviations xvii
1 The 1990s Crime Crash in New York 1
A Mysterious Outbreak of Better Behavior Sweeps over
the City 1
Written Off as Terminally Ill: A Near Death Experience? 2
Back from the Dead: Was This a Great Time, or What? 7
Irrational Exuberance about the Reversal of Fortune?
A Tale of Two Cities 10
Criminological Detective Work: Following Up Leads 13
Two Crime Waves: Way Up, Down Somewhat, Soaring
to Record Levels, Crash! 15
Too Good to Be True? The Accuracy of Crime Statistics 18
Just Killings? Was Murder the Only Crime to Crash? 20
Only in New York? Or Was Crime Down Everywhere? 23
What’s So Special about New York City? 28
The Clues, So Far 31
Notes 32
2 Deconstructing Murders 34
Going behind the Numbers: Uncovering Patterns
and Trends 34
What Was All the Bloodshed About? 34
What’s Missing from This Picture? 35
Ultimate Sacrifices 40
Deadfellas Sleeping with the Fishes 41
West Side Stories 42
Wrong Time, Wrong Place: Cruel Twists of Fate 44
| v |
Contents
The Real Threats to Life and Limb 45
Predators on the Prowl 46
Fatal Fallings Out: All within the Family 46
Drug-Related Violence 47
Beefs to Kill For, to Die For 49
Lost Souls Gone to a Better Place 50
In Harm’s Way 51
Grave Danger 57
Round Up the Usual Suspects? 58
Portrait of the Killers 58
Mortal Combat: Weapons of Choice 64
Crime Scenes 67
High Crime Precincts 71
Putting Together All the Clues 72
What Makes Crime Rates Rise and Fall? 73
Notes 76
3 NYPD or Not NYPD: That Is the Question 83
Everything Works? 83
NYPD Blues 85
The New NYPD: A Sea Change? 92
Sounds Convincing: Evaluating Compstat 94
It’s All a Matter of Timing: Did Crime Rates Drop
Sharply after the Implementation of
Compstat Reforms? 97
Size Counts? Did an Enlarged NYPD Better Fulfill
Its Functions? 99
Murders Committed in “Visible” Locations Tumbled:
Did the Police “Take Back the Streets”? 102
Reasonable Doubts 104
Not So Fast . . . Did an Improvement in Police Response
Time Help Save Lives? 106
Catching Killers 108
Did the Murder Rate Drop Because the Solution
Rate Rose? 108
Second Opinions 111
Step Out of Line . . . Did the Crackdown on Quality-of-
Life Infractions Reduce Gun Violence? 113
| vi |
Contents
Mission Accomplished? 117
Smoking Guns: Was It Really Zero Tolerance That
Discouraged Gun Toting? 121
Can’t Stand the Heat? Good Riddance! Were
Hard-Core Criminals Driven out of Town? 125
Improved Policing: Necessary, Sufficient, or Not
Needed at All? 127
A Rush to Judgment about New York’s Finest? The
Jury Is Still Out, but the Verdict Is Already In 128
Notes 131
4 Behind Bars? 141
Were the City’s Troublemakers Shipped Upstate by a
Tougher Criminal Justice System? 141
The Bad Old Days: A Non-System on the Verge
of Collapse? 142
Lock-’Em-Up and Throw Away the Key? 146
Do the Crime, Do the Time—Or Beat the Rap? 149
Notes 156
5 The Drug-Crime Connection 160
Were More New Yorkers Just Saying “No!” to Drugs
and Drinking? 160
Drugs ‘R’ Us: New York as the Center of the Action 161
The Crack Attack 166
Did the Drug Trade Undergo a Transformation? 171
Fewer Abusers, Less Crime: Was the Drug Scene
Winding Down? 174
Under Arrest 175
The Favorite Drugs of Criminals 177
One Too Many 178
One Last Time 179
Killed under the Influence 180
Down but Not Out 181
Down with Drinking? 185
Notes 188
| vii |
Contents
6 It’s the Economy, Stupid! Or Is It? Did the Boom
Cause the Crash? 194
The Best of Times? Poverty Rates and Crime Rates 195
As Good As It Gets? Unemployment Rates and
Crime Rates 201
Boom and Bust: The Business Cycle and Crime Rates 204
Trickle Down: Was the Underground Economy
Thriving? 207
Higher Learning, Lower Criminality? Did the College
Experience Counteract Street Smarts? 209
Foreign Aid: Did Immigrants Help Turn the Tide? 215
Wretched Refuse or Huddled Masses Yearning to
Breathe Free: Were the Newest New Yorkers
Criminally Inclined or Disinclined? 216
Notes 225
7 Where Have All the Criminals Gone? Did Favorable
Demographic Trends Facilitate the Crash? 232
Escape from New York 232
Grisly Arithmetic: Did Untimely Deaths Eliminate
Many Active Criminals? 235
Criminals Killed Off by Other Criminals 235
Drug Abusers Overdosing to an Early Grave 237
Lives of Intravenous Drug Abusers Lost to AIDS 238
Criminal Aliens Expelled from the United States 240
For All the Wrong Reasons: The Ugly Bottom Line 242
Generations on the Move: Did the High Risk
Population of Young Males Shrink? 243
Fewer Potential Recruits? Young Males with Many
Strikes against Them 248
Exercising Their Right to Remain Silent: Did a Dramatic
Change in Attitudes Lead a Generation to Turn
Away from Crime? 249
Summing Up the Numbers 254
Notes 254
| viii |
Contents
8 Lessons from the New York Experience 257
The Anatomy of a Crime Wave 257
They Said It Couldn’t Be Done: Ideological Stakes in
the Search for Crime’s Causes 260
What Really Works? 262
Imagine . . . 266
Final Days: When Did the Crash End? 268
Notes 271
Appendix 273
References 275
Name Index 307
Subject Index 313
About the Author 316
| ix |