New Middle Ages: Geopolitics of Post-Westphalian World

166 Pages·2020·2.062 MB·English

by  Bohumil Doboš

World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures
Bohumil Doboš
New Middle
Ages
Geopolitics of Post-Westphalian World
World-Systems Evolution and Global
Futures
Series Editors
Christopher Chase-Dunn, University of California, Riverside, CA, USA
Barry K. Gills, Political and Economic Studies, University of Helsinki, Helsinki,
Finland
Leonid E. Grinin, National Research University Higher School of Economics,
Moscow, Russia
Andrey V. Korotayev, National Research University Higher School of Economics,
Moscow, Russia
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Bohumil Doboš
New Middle Ages
Geopolitics of Post-Westphalian World
Bohumil Doboš
Institute of Political Studies
Charles University
Prague 5, Czech Republic
ISSN 2522-0985 ISSN 2522-0993 (electronic)
World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures
ISBN 978-3-030-58680-5 ISBN 978-3-030-58681-2 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-58681-2
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland
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Contents
1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2 Conceptual Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.1 Geopolitics and Neomedieval Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.2 Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.2.1 State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.2.2 Unrecognized State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2.2.3 Non-State Actor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.2.4 Sovereignty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.2.5 Terra Nullius and Black Spots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.3 Systemic Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.3.1 Medieval System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.3.2 Westphalian System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2.3.3 Globalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
3 New Middle Ages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3.1 Hedley Bull and the Birth of Neomedievalism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3.1.1 Regional Integration of States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
3.1.2 Disintegration of States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
3.1.3 Restoration of Private Violence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
3.1.4 Transnational Organizations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
3.1.5 Technological Unification of the World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3.2 Post-Cold War Reincarnation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3.2.1 Jörg Friedrichs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3.2.2 Philip Cerny . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
3.2.3 Stephen Kobrin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.2.4 Jan Zielonka . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
3.2.5 Barry Buzan and Richard Little . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
3.2.6 Neil Winn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
3.2.7 John Rapley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
3.2.8 Phil Williams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
3.3 End of State System? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
3.3.1 Crumbling of State System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
3.3.2 Alternative Actors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
v
vi Contents
3.4 Concept of the Three Worlds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3.4.1 Durable Disorder . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
3.4.2 Chaotic Anarchy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
3.4.3 Westphalian System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
3.4.4 Relation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
4 Analyzing the Global System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
4.1 Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
4.2 Research Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
4.2.1 Axis A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
4.2.2 Axis B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
5 Distribution of the Three Worlds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
5.1 Regional Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
5.1.1 The EU+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
5.1.2 Balkans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
5.1.3 East Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
5.1.4 Russian Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
5.1.5 The Caucasus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
5.1.6 Central Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
5.1.7 Chinese Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
5.1.8 East Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
5.1.9 Southeast Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
5.1.10 Oceania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
5.1.11 Indian Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
5.1.12 AfPak . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
5.1.13 Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
5.1.14 Turkey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
5.1.15 Larger Mesopotamia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
5.1.16 Gulf Monarchies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
5.1.17 Western Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
5.1.18 Northern Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
5.1.19 Northwest Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
5.1.20 Horn of Africa+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
5.1.21 East Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
5.1.22 Central Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
5.1.23 South Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
5.1.24 West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
5.1.25 North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
5.1.26 Central America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
5.1.27 The Caribbean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
5.1.28 Northern South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
5.1.29 Southern South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
5.2 Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
Contents vii
6 Effects on the International System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
6.1 Adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
6.1.1 Westphalian System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
6.1.2 Durable Disorder . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
6.1.3 Chaotic Anarchy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
6.2 Interaction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
6.2.1 Westphalian-Durable Disorder . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
6.2.2 Westphalian-Chaotic Anarchy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
6.2.3 Durable Disorder-Chaotic Anarchy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
7 Impact on Selected Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
7.1 Adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
7.1.1 Al-Shabaab . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
7.1.2 People’s Republic of China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
7.1.3 Facebook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
7.2 Interaction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
7.2.1 EU-Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
7.2.2 EU-Sahel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
7.2.3 Turkey-Syria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
8 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
List of Abbreviations
AMISOM African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP Al Qaeda in Arab Peninsula
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
DRC Democratic Republic of Congo
EAC East African Community
ETA Euskadi Ta Askatasuna
EU European Union
FARC Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia
FSI Fragile State Index
FTA Free Trade Area
GDPR General Data Protection Regulation
ICU Islamic Court Union
IORA Indian Ocean Rim Association
IRA Irish Republican Army
NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NGO Non-Governmental Organization
OBOR One Belt One Road
PKK Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê (Kurdistan Worker’s Party)
PRC People’s Republic of China
PYD Partiya Yekîtiya Demokrat (United Democratic Party)
RAF Red Army Faction
SDF Syrian Democratic Forces
UK United Kingdom
UN United Nations
USA United States of America
VPN Virtual Private Network
YPG Yekîneyên Parastina Gel (People’s Protection Forces)
YPJ Yekîneyên Parastina Jin (Women’s Protection Forces)
ix
Introduction 1
The end of the Cold War introduced significant shifts and changes to the world’s
geopolitics (end of bipolarism and establishment of the new-world order), nature of
the international system, and domestic political setting of many countries all over
the globe. Bipolar competition disappeared, the world became dominated (at least
for some time) by a single superpower – the United States (USA) – and many coun-
tries fell into the abyss of civil war that was this time not fumed by the competing
superpowers. Other states failed due to the end of financing from former superpow-
ers and lack of balancing between these behemoths inside the civil conflicts taking
place in the third world context. The world became globalized and interconnected
via the emerging cyberspace and effects of the new regionalism as in the case of the
establishment of the European Union (EU) that spread across most of the European
continent or an appearance of the free trade areas (FTAs). New non-state actors that
appeared in the new environment (violent non-state actors or nongovernmental
organizations) often utilized the caveats in the states’ territoriality and functioning
and gained prominence. From these examples, it is clear that the changes in the
international structure are systemic and profound. Consequently, a large amount of
debates regarding the nature of the post-Cold War world took place. From Fukuyama
(1992) to Huntington (1997) to Giddens (1998), many authors attempted to portray
the nature of the international system following the fall of bipolarism. This work,
however, goes even further and claims that the changes not only disrupted the bipo-
lar balance of power but that they challenge the Westphalian system as we know it.
It might even seem that the structural limits that empowered the state to become the
dominant and mutually reinforcing unit in the international system that established
itself since the end of Middle Ages (Spruyt 1994, 180) might shift toward a new
equilibrium that might not favor a global dominance of the sovereign state anymore.
This development is following the process of power diffusion (Nye Jr. 2011, 113).
It is claimed that the world is slowly turning to a new geopolitical setting – the
neomedievalism. Nonetheless, as the grand theories mentioned above all failed to
grasp the global landscape in totality, this work is not claiming that we can use a
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 1
to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
B. Doboš, New Middle Ages, World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-58681-2_1