New Eastern Europe - June-August 2022

190 Pages·2022·15 MB·English

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D
EAR READER,
Ukrainian philosopher and writer Volodymyr Yermolenko recently wrote that “the
war changes the perception of time. Your life can change in one day, one hour, one
minute.” This has certainly been true for the Ukrainians who are experiencing a new
reality every day. The unprovoked full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine which be-
gan on February 24th 2022 has certainly changed nearly every aspect of life for
Ukrainians, we began covering this in our previous edition of New Eastern Europe.
While it is true that the reality for Ukrainians has changed dramatically, it is also
true that our geopolitical reality has also been significantly altered. With Russia’s inva-
sion of Ukraine we now see our western values under siege, whether we consciously
recognise it or not. The response to the level of violence against Ukrainians was en-
couraging – as countries in the European Union together with other western states
swiftly enacted sanctions against Russia and began supporting Ukraine militarily.
Yet, many decisions on what level to support Ukraine against this illegal inva-
sion have become politicised or poorly understood. To understand this better, the
theme of this issue of New Eastern Europe looks at the ways Russia’s siege have
changed our societies (or not). We open this issue with an essay by Samuel Abra-
ham who puts the war in the context of what Henry Kissinger describes as a “totally
new era” and argues that Ukraine’s victory will only strengthen the West. Rebecca
Harms advocates for a stronger, more coherent German strategy, while Cyrille Bret
puts perspective on Emmanuel Macron’s most recent presidential victory. Paweł
Kowal discusses how the West must also better support free Belarusians in exile or
those being repressed in their own country. Mykola Riabchuk outlines the shared
values under siege, and why Ukraine is fighting not only for their freedom, but ours
as well. Lastly, we add commentary on how the war has changed countries beyond
the region – which shows the extent of the changes that this invasion has wrought.
Unfortunately as of printing this issue, the news from Ukraine’s front is not over-
ly optimistic. Russian forces continue, albeit slowly, to push the front in the east. In
the south there has been some successful counteroffensives, yet our colleagues
in Ukraine warn of a difficult summer.
We invite you to please keep our Ukrainian friends and colleagues in mind as
you read this issue. If you would like to offer support, we have an ongoing fundrais-
er to assist our contributors and translators. Please consider donating to this cam-
paign. You can find it via our website at: www.neweasterneurope.eu.
The Editors
Contents
Values under Siege 48 Central European sensitivity
towards Ukraine
Kinga Anna Gajda
7 Ukraine and its discontents
Samuel Abrahám
53 The power of local diplomacy
The outcome of the war in Ukraine will be
Cristian Cantir
determined by three key actors – Ukraine,
Russia and the West. However, all three
58 In the footsteps of Viktor
operate as if they are in different time
dimensions. One of the features of this Orbán’s invincibility
“totally new era” is that clocks are ticking on Szabolcs Vörös
all sides, but the speed seems different. Viktor Orbán’s thoughts about the Hungarian
people almost always appear in his speeches.
15 Germany’s Russia policy If you search for the term “Hungarian people”
must change on Orbán’s personal site, a peculiar universe
Rebecca Harms unfolds in front of your eyes. Certainly, his
target is not the liberal Budapest intelligentsia,
While Germans are slowly learning that
but rather ordinary Hungarians, a group that
Ukraine is a nation with a unique language
Orbán knows best – and grants him victory.
and culture now threatened with annihilation
by Russia, the country’s traditional longing
for accommodation with Moscow is already Local perspectives:
starting to re-emerge in national discourse.
What has (not) changed
since the war in Ukraine
21 For our freedom and yours
Mykola Riabczuk
Ever since 2014 the war in Ukraine has 73 Germany still struggles to
often been thought of as a local conflict, understand its Eastern neighbours
wholly separate from wider issues. If Putin’s Mattia Nelles
full-scale invasion has proven anything,
however, it is that Kyiv now finds itself on 77 The war in Ukraine as a test
the frontline of a battle to defend liberal
for “Global Britain”
democratic values against authoritarianism.
Alex Nice
29 How a free Belarus can join
80 The borders of solidarity
the anti-Putin coalition
Paulina Siegień
Paweł Kowal
The Belarusian nation is not the dictator’s
83 The ghosts of Poltava
property. It continues to fight for its
Matthew Kott
freedom and independence and could
be a vital force in ending Russian
imperialism once and for all. 87 As Russia invades Ukraine, Israel
walks a diplomatic tightrope
36 Macron’s Eastern Europe rethink Sam Sokol
Cyrille Bret
89 The war that brought back the
41 Overcoming imperial trauma eternal Bulgarian dispute
Piotr Augustyniak Krassen Nikolov
Opinion and Analysis 146 Russia’s war has turned Hasidic
pilgrimage site into safe haven
Aleksander Palikot and Maria Tymoshchuk
92 A referendum in the shadow of war
Hanna Vasilevich
152 A lot at stake for Estonia as it
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shifted
shifts away from oil shale
international attention away from yet another
Isabelle de Pommereau
referendum in Belarus. Like all the previous ones,
these reforms significantly change the Belarusian Amidst rising concerns over climate change,
political landscape, while giving Alyaksandr the Estonian government has pledged to
Lukashenka even more influence and power. stop burning oil shale for power generation
by 2035. Tallinn will also give up the
98 The geopolitics of hospitality fossil fuel altogether by 2040. Oil shale,
however, has a long history in Estonia and
Natalia Barszcz and Luiza Bialasiewicz
is the country’s main source of electricity.
Abandoning its use is not only a climate-
105 The political psychology of war
related issue, but a geopolitical one as well.
Raze Baziani, Rasan Baziani
Art, Culture and Society
112 From emperors to refugees
Svenja Petersen
Moscow’s war in Ukraine has not only 160 The Way of the Land
forced millions of Ukrainians to flee their Miriam Țepeș- Handaric
home country but has also led hundreds
Romania is not the first country people
of thousands of Russian citizens to seek usually think of when it comes to slavery.
exile abroad. Among the most popular Despite this, the country possesses an
destinations for Russians are the South almost unknown history of Roma slavery
Caucasian republics: Armenia and Georgia.
that occurred over five centuries ago. The
Way of the Land is a podcast that shows how
Interviews this hidden history bleeds into the present
discriminations against the Roma community.
119 The mission of journalists
History and Memory
is to reveal the truth
An interview with Mykola Semena
166 The Russo-Japanese War.
127 What Russia needs most A forgotten lesson?
is cash for bombs Andrzej Zaręba
An interview with Piotr Woźniak
“Unfortunately, statements from some EU 177 In search of Baron Kurtz
officials that ‘by the end of 2022 the purchase in Bucharest
of Russian gas will be reduced by two- Lilian Pizzichini
thirds’, are only declarations. It is difficult In the summer of 1990, I found myself
to say when this will actually happen.” sitting on the platform of Wien Sudbahnhof
waiting for a train to Bucharest and
Stories and Ideas dreaming of waltzing down the River
Danube. In the dream, my partner and I
spiralled through rooms that had hosted
133 The ghosts of past wars live the secessionist salons of Mitteleuropa.
on in Russia’s Victory Day
Oleg Smirnov
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Ukraine and
its discontents
SAMUEL ABRAHÁM
The outcome of the war in Ukraine will be
determined by three key actors – Ukraine, Russia
and the West. However, all three operate as if they
are in different time dimensions. One of the features
of this “totally new era” is that clocks are ticking
on all sides, but the speed seems different.
Since February 24th, Ukraine has been at the forefront of global media and we
have been inundated with both short and long-term predictions about the war as
it progresses. It has led to endless analysis, some profound, some superficial, some
objective, some ideological, some partisan and much contradictory. We all want
to know how this tragic conflict will end, whether Ukraine prevails and remains
free or Vladimir Putin’s Russia conquers its neighbour. What would either devel-
opment mean for the future of the West? What would be the status of the external
and internal enemies of liberal democracy that have grown during the last decade
and have been somewhat muted since February?
While the war continues, one thing is certain: this is a “totally new era”. Henry
Kissinger defined the period after February 24th in this way as one cannot predict
the outcome of the war and its global ramifications. To complicate the matter, it
seems as if different forces in the conflict operate according to different timeframes
and hence require a different prism to understand. This piece will subsequently
look at the many key unseen developments unleashed by Putin’s aggression. Fur-
thermore, it will review the areas – the status of Saudi Arabia, China and the future
of offshore tax havens – that might influence future developments in international
8 Values under siege Ukraine and its discontents, Samuel Abrahám
relations and determine the fate of Russia. But first, it is important to discuss a bit
of Central European history in order to assess the current conflict.
1968 and 2022
To many Slovaks and Czechs, Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine was a reminder
of a similar act of aggression they had experienced by the Soviet Union in 1968. Both
events were unexpected and shocking, although in both cases the United States
was aware beforehand of what was coming. Whilst diplomatic channels revealed
the USSR’s intentions, Putin’s plans were revealed thanks to the work of US intel-
ligence agencies. In both cases, no one offered direct help to the countries facing
the aggressor. The nuclear deterrent worked in Moscow’s favour in 1968 and holds
NATO back in 2022, although the West has responded with a massive amount of
help in the form of military equipment and economic assistance.
The worst part of the invasion of Czechoslovakia was not the direct military
occupation. In fact, the nation remained united and stood behind then leader Al-
exander Dubček and his government, who were kidnapped and taken to a loca-
tion somewhere in Russia on the night of the invasion. The puppet government
planned by Moscow did not take over in August 1968 and Dubček’s legitimate gov-
ernment was allowed to return, albeit just for a few months until Moscow found
its quisling figure, Gustav Husák. In consort, they unleashed the so-called “nor-
malisation” – the most humiliating two decades of Czechoslovakia’s history. Al-
most a million Slovaks and Czechs emigrated and those who remained and want-
ed to keep their professional positions of any sort had
It is clear that
to sign a shameful declaration that they “agree with
Ukraine is fighting the brotherly help of the Warsaw Pact Treaty Organ-
not only for its land isation in August 1968”. That “brotherly help” was as
much a euphemism for Soviet aggression as the “spe-
and political system,
cial military operation” is for the Russian war and ag-
but also the survival
gression in Ukraine today.
of human dignity. The “normalisation period” (1969 – 89) broke the
spirit of the nation. People withdrew into internal ex-
ile and hopelessness. This was combined with a cultural and intellectual bleakness
that, everyone believed, would last for generations. No one, not even the commu-
nist leaders, believed in the communist propaganda. It was just a puppet regime
led by puppet henchmen on the outskirts of the Soviet imperium.
Why this comparison from a different era? Overall, it is clear that Ukraine is
fighting not only for its land and political system but also the survival of human