New Challenges of North Korean Foreign Policy

233 Pages·2010·1.812 MB·English

by  Kyung-Ae Park (eds.)

New Challenges of North Korean
Foreign Policy
New Challenges of North
Korean Foreign Policy
Edited by
Kyung-Ae Park
NEW CHALLENGES OF NORTH KOREAN FOREIGN POLICY
Copyright © Kyung-Ae Park, 2010.
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2010 978-0-230-10363-4
All rights reserved.
First published in 2010 by
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN®
in the United States—a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC,
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this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited,
registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills,
Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS.
Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies
and has companies and representatives throughout the world.
Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States,
the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries.
ISBN 978-1-349-28797-0 ISBN 978-0-230-11397-8 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9780230113978
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
New challenges of North Korean foreign policy / edited by Kyung-Ae
Park.
p. cm.
1. Political culture—Korea (North) 2. Korea (North)—Foreign relations.
3. Korea (North)—Politics and government. 4. Ideology—Korea
(North) I. Park, Kyung-Ae, 1955–
JQ1729.5.A91N48 2010
327.5193—dc22 2010008381
A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library.
Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India.
First edition: October 2010
C O N T E N T S
List of Illustrations vii
Preface ix
Part I Challenges From Within
One Socialist Neoconservatism and North Korean
Foreign Policy 3
Rüdiger Frank
Two People’s Exit, Regime Stability, and
North Korean Diplomacy 43
Kyung-Ae Park
Three Food Crisis and North Korea’s Aid Diplomacy:
Seeking the Path of Least Resistance 69
Mark Manyin
Four Military-First (Songun) Politics: Implications for
External Policies 89
Han S. Park
Part II Challenges from the Changing
International Environment
Five “ China Rising” and Its Implications for
North Korea’s China Policy 113
David C. Kang
Six M ultilateralism and Pyongyang’s Foreign
Policy Strategy 133
Gilbert Rozman
vi Contents
Seven C hanges in Seoul’s North Korean Policy and
Implications for Pyongyang’s Inter-Korean Diplomacy 153
Scott Snyder
Eight Domestic Determinants of U.S. Policy toward
North Korea and Ramifications for Pyongyang 173
L. Gordon Flake
Nine Challenges for North Korea’s Nuclear Endgame 185
Victor D. Cha
Ten Rapprochement in Postwar History: Implications for
North Korea 205
Bruce Cumings
List of Contributors 223
Index 227
I L L U S T R A T I O N S
Graphs
1.1 Analysis of official North Korean media (KCNA) 11
1.2 Titles used for Kim Jong Il (Leader and
General Secretary) 13
1.3 Change in the treatment of South Korea in
North Korean media 23
1.4 Return to old paradigms 23
1.5 The term “nuclear” alone does not properly
reflect rising tension 34
1.6 Ideological code words illustrate an
increasingly militant stance 35
Tables
2.1 North Korean refugees entering South Korea 47
2.2 Occupation in North Korea (January 2009) 48
2.3 Educational Level of Refugees (January 2009) 48
2.4 Age of Refugees (January 2009) 48
2.5 Refugee Organizations 54
3.1 Estimated North Korean Trade by Selected
Trading Partner, 2000–2008 (US$ in millions) 84
3.2 South Korean Government expenditures on
North-South relations 86
9.1 Statements of Non-Hostile Intent by the
United States government toward North Korea 192
viii Illustrations
Figures
3.1 Total food aid to North Korea, 1995–2008 71
3.2 Annual food aid by major donors, 1995–2008 72
3.3 “Big 4” (ROK, PRC, United States, Japan) share of
food aid contributions 75
3.4 China’s export of cereals to North Korea 79
3.5 Year-on-Year percentage change in PRC cereals export 80
3.6 Chinese energy shipments to North Korea, 1995–2008 81
3.7 North Korea-China trade, 1995–2008 83
P R E F A C E
North Korea’s foreign policy behavior has long intrigued scholars,
puzzled laymen, frustrated negotiators, and aggravated policy-makers.
The world has regarded North Korea as an unpredictable rogue state
and a source of conflict and alarm to the international community.
Controversies surrounding North Korea’s nuclear facilities and missile
technology have persisted for the past twenty years, and Pyongyang
again sent shock waves through the international community in
2009 when it tested a second nuclear device and a barrage of missiles.
Subsequently, the Six-party Talks became deadlocked and the interna-
tional community began to implement unprecedented tough sanctions
on Pyongyang after the UN Security Council adopted Resolution
1874.
In addition, Kim Jong Il’s illness triggered fears of instability in the
North Korean system and even a sudden collapse of the regime. With
the United States and South Korea producing contingency plans for
a possibly chaotic post-Kim Jong Il era, concerns over Kim’s health
reignited a debate over the succession issue and rekindled interest in
the impact of the succession on Pyongyang’s future foreign policy
directions.
In the midst of the escalating tensions, however, North Korea initi-
ated a peace offensive toward the United States and South Korea in
the latter part of 2009, following former president Clinton’s visit to
Pyongyang in August. His visit aimed at securing the release of two
American journalists who were collecting information on the plight of
North Korean refugees along North Korea’s border with China. In the
middle of unprecedented confrontational bilateral relations, the jour-
nalists had been convicted of illegal entry and “grave crimes against
the Korean nation.” The release of the journalists set the stage for a
renewed bilateral contact and subsequently led to the visit of President
x Preface
Obama’s envoy, Stephen Bosworth, to North Korea in December, which
marked the first direct high-level contact of the Obama administration.
Bosworth’s visit was intended to convince North Korea to return to
the Six-party Talks, and was followed by Washington’s announcement
that it had reached a “common understanding” with Pyongyang on the
need to resume the Six-party process.
Pyongyang’s overtures continued into the beginning of 2010. In a
New Year’s message, it called for “an end to the hostile relationship”
with the United States and for reconciliation with Seoul, skipping its
usual invective in the message against both countries. It expressed its
strong desire to improve bilateral ties with Washington and Seoul to
ensure peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. Whether North
Korea’s latest conciliatory gestures will gain momentum for a new
breakthrough in Pyongyang’s relations with the outside world remains
to be seen. North Korea now stands at a crossroads, and many inter-
nal and external challenges facing Pyongyang will reorient its foreign
policy in the coming months and years.
This book brings together the work of ten of the world’s foremost
scholars and leading experts on North Korea. The contributors of the
chapters are longtime analysts of North Korea and most of them utilize
firsthand knowledge obtained from their visits to Pyongyang, from
which this book particularly benefits. The book provides an assess-
ment of the domestic and international challenges to North Korea,
which will inevitably affect the way North Korea relates to the outside
world. Witnessing the rapid changes in North Korea’s foreign policy
environment, the contributors of this book critically analyze the key
factors and issues that are shaping North Korea’s foreign policy behav-
ior and its future direction. The authors examine the implications of
the domestic challenges posed by the changing national identity and
ideology, people’s exiting the country, economic stagnation, and the
military-first politics, for Pyongyang’s foreign policy. They also offer
insight into the impact of various external challenges on Pyongyang’s
foreign policy, such as China “rising,” multilateralism, and leadership
changes in the United States and South Korea, and assess Pyongyang’s
strategies for coping with these challenges. As such, the book exposes
North Korea’s major foreign policy challenges, which Pyongyang is
currently facing in dealing with its changing domestic environment,
the new world power structure, and the new administrations in both
the United States and South Korea.
Earlier versions of the chapters in this book were presented at a con-
ference held at the University of British Columbia. Thanks are due not