NCHRP Report 765 – Analytical Travel Forecasting Approaches for Project-Level Planning and

316 Pages·2014·35.04 MB·English

NATIONAL
COOPERATIVE
HIGHWAY
RESEARCH
NCHRP PROGRAM
REPORT 765
Analytical Travel Forecasting
Approaches for Project-Level
Planning and Design
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2014 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE*
OFFICERS
Chair: Kirk T. Steudle, Director, Michigan DOT, Lansing
ViCe Chair: Daniel Sperling, Professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy; Director, Institute of Transportation Studies,
University of California, Davis
exeCutiVe DireCtor: Robert E. Skinner, Jr., Transportation Research Board
MEMBERS
Victoria A. Arroyo, Executive Director, Georgetown Climate Center, and Visiting Professor, Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, DC
Scott E. Bennett, Director, Arkansas State Highway and Transportation Department, Little Rock
Deborah H. Butler, Executive Vice President, Planning, and CIO, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, VA
James M. Crites, Executive Vice President of Operations, Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX
Malcolm Dougherty, Director, California Department of Transportation, Sacramento
A. Stewart Fotheringham, Professor and Director, Centre for Geoinformatics, School of Geography and Geosciences, University of St. Andrews,
Fife, United Kingdom
John S. Halikowski, Director, Arizona DOT, Phoenix
Michael W. Hancock, Secretary, Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, Frankfort
Susan Hanson, Distinguished University Professor Emerita, School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, MA
Steve Heminger, Executive Director, Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Oakland, CA
Chris T. Hendrickson, Duquesne Light Professor of Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA
Jeffrey D. Holt, Managing Director, Bank of Montreal Capital Markets, and Chairman, Utah Transportation Commission, Huntsville, Utah
Gary P. LaGrange, President and CEO, Port of New Orleans, LA
Michael P. Lewis, Director, Rhode Island DOT, Providence
Joan McDonald, Commissioner, New York State DOT, Albany
Abbas Mohaddes, President and CEO, Iteris, Inc., Santa Ana, CA
Donald A. Osterberg, Senior Vice President, Safety and Security, Schneider National, Inc., Green Bay, WI
Steven W. Palmer, Vice President of Transportation, Lowe’s Companies, Inc., Mooresville, NC
Sandra Rosenbloom, Professor, University of Texas, Austin
Henry G. (Gerry) Schwartz, Jr., Chairman (retired), Jacobs/Sverdrup Civil, Inc., St. Louis, MO
Kumares C. Sinha, Olson Distinguished Professor of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN
Gary C. Thomas, President and Executive Director, Dallas Area Rapid Transit, Dallas, TX
Paul Trombino III, Director, Iowa DOT, Ames
Phillip A. Washington, General Manager, Regional Transportation District, Denver, CO
EX OFFICIO MEMBERS
Thomas P. Bostick (Lt. General, U.S. Army), Chief of Engineers and Commanding General, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC
Alison Jane Conway, Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, City College of New York, NY, and Chair, TRB Young Member Council
Anne S. Ferro, Administrator, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, U.S. DOT
David J. Friedman, Acting Administrator, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S. DOT
John T. Gray II, Senior Vice President, Policy and Economics, Association of American Railroads, Washington, DC
Michael P. Huerta, Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S. DOT
Paul N. Jaenichen, Sr., Acting Administrator, Maritime Administration, U.S. DOT
Therese W. McMillan, Acting Administrator, Federal Transit Administration, U.S. DOT
Michael P. Melaniphy, President and CEO, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, DC
Victor M. Mendez, Administrator, Federal Highway Administration, and Acting Deputy Secretary, U.S. DOT
Robert J. Papp (Adm., U.S. Coast Guard), Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Cynthia L. Quarterman, Administrator, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, U.S. DOT
Peter M. Rogoff, Acting Under Secretary for Policy, U.S. DOT
Craig A. Rutland, U.S. Air Force Pavement Engineer, Air Force Civil Engineer Center, Tyndall Air Force Base, FL
Joseph C. Szabo, Administrator, Federal Railroad Administration, U.S. DOT
Barry R. Wallerstein, Executive Officer, South Coast Air Quality Management District, Diamond Bar, CA
Gregory D. Winfree, Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology, Office of the Secretary, U.S. DOT
Frederick G. (Bud) Wright, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, DC
* Membership as of May 2014.
N A T I O N A L C O O P E R A T I V E H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M
NCHRP REPORT 765
Analytical Travel Forecasting
Approaches for Project-Level
Planning and Design
CDM Smith
Cambridge, MA
Alan Horowitz
Milwaukee, WI
Tom Creasey
Lexington, KY
Ram Pendyala
Phoenix, AZ
Mei Chen
Lexington, KY
Subscriber Categories
Highways • Planning and Forecasting • Operations and Traffc Management
Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Offcials
in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration
T R A NSPORTAT ION RESEARCH BOARD
WASHINGTON, D.C.
2014
www.TRB.org
NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY NCHRP REPORT 765
RESEARCH PROGRAM
Systematic, well-designed research provides the most effective Project 08-83
approach to the solution of many problems facing highway ISSN 0077-5614
administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local ISBN 978-0-309-28404-2
Library of Congress Control Number 2014940220
interest and can best be studied by highway departments individually
or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the © 2014 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
accelerating growth of highway transportation develops increasingly
complex problems of wide interest to highway authorities. These
problems are best studied through a coordinated program of
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CN HRP PROEJ CT 38-80 PAEN L
Field of Transportation Planning—Area of Forecasting
Michael S. Bruff, North Carolina DOT, Raleigh, NC (Chair)
Subrat Mahapatra, Maryland State Highway Administration, Baltimore, MD
Philip Ben Cox, California DOT, Oakland, CA
Dan Lamers, North Central Texas Council of Governments, Arlington, TX
Derek Miura, FHWA, Lakewood, CO
Eric Pihl, FHWA, Lakewood, CO
Jeffrey A. Shelton, Texas A & M University, El Paso, TX
Kermit Wies, Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning, Chicago, IL
Robert M. Winick, Motion Maps LLC, Rockville, MD
Sarah Sun, FHWA Liaison
Matthew Hardy, AASHTO Liaison
Kimberly Fisher, TRB Liaison
F O R E W O R D
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This report is an update to NCHRP Report 255: Highway Traffc Data for Urbanized Area
Project Planning and Design and describes methods, data sources, and procedures for pro-
ducing travel forecasts for highway project-level analyses. The report provides an evaluation
of currently used methods and tools. The report also includes appropriate information
sources and system-level methods (ranging from readily available practices to advanced
practices) to address a variety of project development purposes, needs, and impacts. The
report is intended to be used by transportation planning, operations, and project devel-
opment staff to better support planning, design, and operations recommendations. The
report is accompanied by a CD-ROM providing spreadsheet tools developed for project-
level analyses as well as appendices from the contractor’s fnal report.
In 1982, TRB published NCHRP Report 255: Highway Traffc Data for Urbanized Area
Project Planning and Design. This report compiled techniques used in urban areas to bridge
the gap between system-level and project-level analyses. In 1982, there was an emphasis on
new and expanded highway facilities, but today the focus has broadened to include travel
demand management strategies and operational effciency strategies. Spatial and temporal
aspects of congestion are diffcult to capture at the precision necessary for project-level
decision-making with conventional traffc forecasting techniques. For heavily congested
urban study areas and corridors, it is important to capture the effects of residual demand
and peak spreading at a project level. Since 1982, there have been many improvements
in travel models; however, relatively few efforts have been made to meet post-processing
needs for project-level analysis. There was a need to evaluate currently used post-processors
and refnement methods and to determine how to best communicate the results so that
stakeholders have a suffcient degree of understanding and acceptance. Improvements in
methods were needed to provide plausible and defensible forecasts to support planning and
highway project development.
The objective of this research was to evaluate and describe currently used methods, data
sources, and procedures for producing travel forecasts for highway project-level analysis.
The research was performed by CDM Smith in association with Alan Horo witz of the
University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee, Tom Creasey of Stantec, Ram Pendyala of Arizona
State University, and Mei Chen of the University of Kentucky. Information was gathered
via literature review, a national survey, interviews with practitioners, focus groups, and
case studies collected from metropolitan planning organizations and state departments of
transportation.
C O N T E N T S
P A R T 1 Background
3 Chapter 1 I ntroduction
3 1.1 W hat Are Projects?
3 1.2 C ontext of NCHRP Report 255
4 1.3 T raffc Forecasting Guidelines
4 1.4 C hapter-by-Chapter Review of NCHRP Report 255
4 1.5 T raffc Forecasting State of the Practice
7 1.6 R eport Organization
8 1.7 C RP-CD-143
9 Chapter 2 O verview of the Fundamentals
of Traffc Forecasting
9 2.1 T raffc Forecasting Data and Parameters
11 2.2 T raffc Forecasting Tools
11 2.3 M easures of Effectiveness
15 2.4 E ssential Bookshelf
2 Chapter 3 O verview of Traffc Forecasting Tools
and Methodologies
22 3.1 T he Travel Forecasting Model Ideal
24 3.2 S tate of the Practice of Travel Forecasting Models
43 3.3 S tate of the Practice of Data Inputs for Travel Forecasting Models
50 3.4 S tate of the Practice of Outputs for Travel Forecasting Models
52 3.5 D efaults versus Locally Specifc Parameters
53 3.6 O ther Traffc Forecasting Tools and Methodologies
P A R T 2 Guidelines
95 Chapter 4 T he Project-Level Forecasting Process
59 4.1 T raffc Forecasting Context—Management Perspective
66 4.2 T raffc Forecasting Steps—Analyst Perspective
74 4.3 R ole of Judgment
76 4.4 F orecast Accuracy
82 4.5 T raffc Forecasting Rules of Thumb
84 Chapter 5 W orking with a Travel Model
84 5.1 U nderstanding the Model
85 5.2 P roject-Level Forecast Validation
87 5.3 U nderstanding Variability in Speed and Volume Data
88 5.4 F ixing Issues in Input or Validation Data
97 5.5 U nderstanding Travel Model Outputs
102 5.6 H andling Outliers in Model Outputs
104 5.7 C omputation Technology Issues and Opportunities
1 06 Chapter 6 M odel Output Refnements
107 6.1 S creenline Refnement with Base Volumes
113 6.2 F actoring Procedure—Ratio Method
114 6.3 F actoring Procedure—Difference Method
115 6.4 I terative Procedure—Directional Method
122 6.5 I terative Procedure—Non-Directional Method
128 6.6 “ T” Intersection Procedure—Non-Directional Method
129 6.7 “ T” Intersection Procedure—Directional Method
130 6.8 R efning Directional Splits From Travel Models
132 6.9 B alancing Volumes in a Corridor
134 6.10 T ravel Time Reliability
137 6.11 M odel Refnement with Origin-Destination Table Estimation
141 6.12 R efnement with Origin-Destination Table Estimation, Small
and Wide Areas
145 Chapter 7 R efning the Spatial Detail of Traffc Models
145 7.1 M ethod: Subarea Focusing, Custom Networks, or Customization
of a Region-Wide Network
150 7.2 W indowing to Forecast Traffc for Small Areas
155 7.3 M ethod: Multiresolution Modeling
162 7.4 M ethod: Integrating Statewide, Regional, and Local Travel Models
168 7.5 M ethod: External-to-External Station Origin-Destination Table Refnement
174 Chapter 8 I mproving the Temporal Accuracy
of Traffc Forecasts
174 8.1 M ethod: Activity-Based Travel Demand Model Systems
182 8.2 M ethod: Dynamic Traffc Assignment
188 8.3 P eak Spreading
198 8.4 M ethod: Pre-Assignment Time-of-Day Factoring
202 8.5 M ethod: Post-Assignment Time-of-Day Factoring
210 8.6 D ay-of-the-Week Factors and Monthly Factors
210 8.7 V ehicle Class Considerations
2 23 Chapter 9 T raffc Forecasting Methods
for Special Purpose Applications
223 9.1 B asic Highway Design Traffc Forecasting Products
223 9.2 I nterpolation of Traffc Forecasts
224 9.3 I mproving Vehicle Mix Accuracy of Forecasts or Data Extrapolations
227 9.4 S pecial Needs of Equivalent Single Axle Loads
232 9.5 S pecial Needs of Beneft-Cost Analysis
234 9.6 S pecial Needs of Toll/Revenue Forecasts
235 9.7 S pecial Needs of Work Zones: Diversion and Delay Forecasts
237 9.8 S pecial Needs of Environmental Justice
238 9.9 S pecial Needs of Traffc Impact Studies
2 39 Chapter 10 T ools Other Than Travel Models
239 10.1 M ethod: Time Series of Traffc Volume Data
245 10.2 S ketch-Planning Technique: Manual Gravity Model
248 10.3 E lasticity Methods
252 10.4 U sing the Highway Capacity Manual in Project-Level Traffc Forecasting
257 10.5 S titching a Model Together
258 10.6 S implifed Highway Forecasting Tool
2 60 Chapter 11 C ase Studies
260 11.1 C ase Study #1—Suburban Arterial
270 11.2 C ase Study #2—Network Window
274 11.3 C ase Study #3—Small City
282 11.4 C ase Study #4—Activity-Based Model Application for Project-Level
Traffc Forecasting/Analysis: HOV to HOT Lane Conversion
287 11.5 C ase Study #5—Time-Series Analysis of the Blue Water Bridge
296 11.6 C ase Study #6—Blending a Regional Travel Forecasting Model
with a Traffc Microsimulation
3 00 References and Bibliography
3 05 Abbreviations, Acronyms, and Initialisms
Note: Many of the photographs, fgures, and tables in this report have been converted from color to grayscale
for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the Web at www.trb.org) retains the color versions.