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NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005 PDF

421 Pages·2007·2.04 MB·English
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economics NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005 edited by Jeffrey A. Frankel and Christopher A. Pissarides The NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics brings together leading American and European economists to discuss a broad range of current issues in global macroeconom- ics. An international companion to the more American-focused NBER Macroeconomics Annual, the 2005 volume frst explores macroeconomic issues of interest to all advanced economies, then analyzes topical questions concerning the eastward expansion of the European Monetary Union. Jeffrey A. Frankel is James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Economic Growth at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. Christopher A. Pissarides is Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics. Both are Research Associates at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Contents Refet S. Gürkaynak and Justin Wolfers MACRoECoNoMiC DERivATivES: AN iNiTiAL ANALySiS oF MARKET-BASED MACRo FoRECASTS, UNCERTAiNTy, AND RiSK yann Algan and Pierre Cahuc THE RooTS oF LoW EURoPEAN EMPLoyMENT: FAMiLy CULTURE? Tito Boeri and Pietro Garibaldi SHADoW SoRTiNG International Seminar Assaf Razin and Prakash Loungani GLoBALizATioN AND EqUiLiBRiUM iNFLATioN-oUTPUT TRADEoFFS Marianne Baxter and Robert G. King on FiSCAL ExTERNALiTiES AND oPTiMAL TAxATioN iN AN ECoNoMiC CoMMUNiTy zsolt Darvas, Andrew K. Rose, and György Szapáry Macroeconomics FiSCAL DivERGENCE AND BUSiNESS CyCLE SyNCHRoNizATioN: iRRESPoNSiBiLiTy iS iDioSyNCRATiC Balázs világi 2005 DUAL iNFLATioN AND THE REAL ExCHANGE RATE iN NEW oPEN ECoNoMy MACRoECoNoMiCS Linda S. Goldberg TRADE iNvoiCiNG iN THE ACCESSioN CoUNTRiES: ARE THEy SUiTED To THE EURo? edited by Jeffrey A. Frankel and Christopher A. Pissarides 978-0-262-56229-4 The MiT Press 0-262-56229-4 Massachusetts institute of Technology Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142 http://mitpress.mit.edu National Bureau of Economic Research International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005 Frankel and Pissarides, editors NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005 NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005 Jeffrey A. Frankel and Christopher A. Pissarides, editors The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England NBER/International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005 ISSN: 1932-8796 ISBN-13: 978-0-262-06265-7 (hc.:alk.paper)—978-0-262-56229-4 (pbk.:alk.paper) ISBN-10: 0-262-06265-8 (hc.:alk.paper)—0-262-56229-4 (pbk.:alk.paper) Published annually by The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142. © 2007 by the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any elec- tronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher. Standing orders/subscriptions are available. Inquiries, and changes to subscriptions and addresses should be addressed to Triliteral, Attention: Standing Orders, 100 Maple Ridge Drive, Cumberland, RI 02864, phone 1-800-366-6687 ext. 112 (U.S. and Canada), fax 1-800-406-9145 (U.S. and Canada). In the United Kingdom, continental Europe, and the Middle East and Africa, send single copy and back volume orders to: The MIT Press, Ltd., Fitzroy House, 11 Chenies Street, London WC1E 7ET England, phone 44-020-7306-0603, fax 44-020-7306-0604, email NBER Board of Directors by Affi liation Offi cers Elizabeth E. Bailey, Chairman John S. 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Reinhardt, Princeton Los Angeles Nathan Rosenberg, Stanford Glen G. Cain, Wisconsin Craig Swan, Minnesota Franklin Fisher, Massachusetts David B. Yoffi e, Harvard Institute of Technology Arnold Zellner (Director Emeritus), Saul H. Hymans, Michigan Chicago Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations Richard B. Berner, National Association Robert Mednick, American Institute For Business Economics of Certifi ed Public Accountants Gail D. Fosler, The Conference Board Angelo Melino, Canadian Martin Gruber, American Finance Economics Association Association Jeffrey M. Perloff, American Arthur B. Kennickell, American Agricultural Economics Association Statistical Association John J. Siegfried, American Thea Lee, American Federation of Economic Association Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations Gavin Wright, Economic History William W. Lewis, Committee for Association Economic Development Directors Emeriti Andrew Brimmer Franklin A. Lindsay Richard N. Rosett Carl F. Christ Paul W. McCracken Eli Shapiro George Hatsopoulos Peter G. Peterson Arnold Zellner Lawrence R. Klein Relation of the Directors to the Work and Publications of the NBER 1. The object of the NBER is to ascertain and present to the economics profession, and to the public more generally, important economic facts and their interpretation in a scientifi c manner without policy recom- mendations. The Board of Directors is charged with the responsibility of ensuring that the work of the NBER is carried on in strict conformity with this object. 2. The President shall establish an internal review process to ensure that book manuscripts proposed for publication DO NOT contain policy recommendations. This shall apply both to the proceedings of conferences and to manuscripts by a single author or by one or more co-authors but shall not apply to authors of comments at NBER confer- ences who are not NBER affi liates. 3. No book manuscript reporting research shall be published by the NBER until the President has sent to each member of the Board a notice that a manuscript is recommended for publication and that in the President’s opinion it is suitable for publication in accordance with the above principles of the NBER. Such notifi cation will include a table of contents and an abstract or summary of the manuscript’s content, a list of contributors if applicable, and a response form for use by Directors who desire a copy of the manuscript for review. Each manuscript shall contain a summary drawing attention to the nature and treatment of the problem studied and the main conclusions reached. 4. No volume shall be published until forty-fi ve days have elapsed from the above notifi cation of intention to publish it. During this period a copy shall be sent to any Director requesting it, and if any Director objects to publication on the grounds that the manuscript contains pol- icy recommendations, the objection will be presented to the author(s) or editor(s). In case of dispute, all members of the Board shall be noti- viii National Bureau of Economic Research fi ed, and the President shall appoint an ad hoc committee of the Board to decide the matter; thirty days additional shall be granted for this purpose. 5. The President shall present annually to the Board a report describing the internal manuscript review process, any objections made by Direc- tors before publication or by anyone after publication, any disputes about such matters, and how they were handled. 6. Publications of the NBER issued for informational purposes con- cerning the work of the Bureau, or issued to inform the public of the activities at the Bureau, including but not limited to the NBER Digest and Reporter, shall be consistent with the object stated in paragraph 1. They shall contain a specifi c disclaimer noting that they have not passed through the review procedures required in this resolution. The Execu- tive Committee of the Board is charged with the review of all such pub- lications from time to time. 7. NBER working papers and manuscripts distributed on the Bureau’s web site are not deemed to be publications for the purpose of this reso- lution, but they shall be consistent with the object stated in paragraph 1. Working papers shall contain a specifi c disclaimer noting that they have not passed through the review procedures required in this resolution. The NBER’s web site shall contain a similar disclaimer. The President shall establish an internal review process to ensure that the working papers and the web site do not contain policy recommendations, and shall report annually to the Board on this process and any concerns raised in connection with it. 8. Unless otherwise determined by the Board or exempted by the terms of paragraphs 6 and 7, a copy of this resolution shall be printed in each NBER publication as described in paragraph 2 above. Contents Abstracts xiii Introduction 1 Jeffrey A. Frankel and Christopher A. Pissarides Part I: Macroeconomic Policy and Labor Markets 1 Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk 11 Refet S. Gürkaynak and Justin Wolfers Comments 51 Christopher D. Carroll Adam Szeidl 2 The Roots of Low European Employment: Family Culture? 65 Yann Algan and Pierre Cahuc Comments 110 Tito Boeri Alessandra Fogli 3 Shadow Sorting 125 Tito Boeri and Pietro Garibaldi Comments 164 Robert E. Hall Christopher A. Pissarides

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