Naval War College Review Winter 2017

187 Pages·2017·7.22 MB·English

Naval War College Review
Volume 70
Article 11
Number 1 Winter 2017
2017
Winter 2017 Full Issue
Te Naval War College
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War College: Winter 2017 Full Issue
Winter 2017
Volume 70, Number 1
Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2017 1
Winter 2017
Naval War College Review, Vol. 70 [2017], No. 1, Art. 11
Cover
Caption: U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Kiska
(WPB 1336) in waters off Hawaii. In
March 2002, Coast Guard officers from
Kiska and FBI agents took PRC national
Shi Lei off the Seychelles-registered, Tai-
wan-owned fishing vessel Full Means II
in international waters and arrested him
for murder. Shi was tried, convicted, and
sentenced to prison in the United States.
This remains the only instance of U.S.
assertion of jurisdiction and prosecution
under the implementing legislation for
the 1988 SUA Convention, subsequently
updated. In “Effective Implementation of
the 2005 Convention on the Suppression
of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of
Maritime Navigation,” James Kraska ex-
plains that many states have not acceded
to the 2005 treaty, and most of those that
have done so have not taken the steps
required to implement it effectively, even
though the need to do so is perhaps even
greater today. USCG photo by CPO Sara
Mooers.
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War College: Winter 2017 Full Issue
NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW
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Voul em 70, Nuebm r 1
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NAVAL WAR COLLEGE PRESS ADVISORY B OARD PRESIDENT, NAVAL WAR COLLEGE
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War College: Winter 2017 uF ll Issue
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Naval War College Review, Vol. 70 [2017], No. 1, Art. 11
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War College: Winter 2017 Full Issue
CONTENTS
From the Editors � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 3
President’s Forum � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 7
International Law
Effective Implementation of the 2005 Convention for the Suppression
of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation � � � � � � � � � � � � � 11
James Kraska
Although the 2005 SUA Convention provides a road map for realization of the vision of an effec-
tive global regime to combat maritime terrorism, and the need for implementation of the treaty is
perhaps even greater today, many states have not taken the necessary steps to implement it�
International Law and Search and Rescue � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 25
Rick Button
The existing international search-and-rescue system, with its shared responsibilities between
shipmasters and coastal states, is challenged by mass migration by sea, SAR cases that impinge on
national boundaries, and persons in distress who decline to be assisted�
War Gaming
Changing DoD’s Analysis Paradigm
The Science of War Gaming and Combat/Campaign Simulation� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 64
John T. Hanley Jr.
Neither war gaming nor combat/campaign simulation is more scientific than the other; both
should be part of DoD’s planning� But they should be supported by a return to the roots of opera-
tions research, augmented by advances in related scientific fields�
Asia Rising
A Himalayan Challenge
India’s Conventional Deterrent and the Role of Special Operations Forces
along the Sino-Indian Border � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 104
Iskander Rehman
The long, uneasy coexistence between India and China in the Himalayas is under threat� India’s
buttressing of its security must incorporate not only improvements to its conventional forces but
enhanced use of special operations forces complemented by tribal scouts and militias�
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2 NAVA L WA R C O L L E G E R E V I E W
Naval War College Review, Vol. 70 [2017], No. 1, Art. 11
The Development of Vietnam’s Sea-Denial Strategy� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 143
Shang-su Wu
With its water borders under threat, Vietnam has pursued a sea-denial strategy to protect its inter-
ests and has worked to build up the relevant military capabilities to strengthen its hand diplomati-
cally and avoid being the most likely victim of foreign aggression�
Review Essay
What Is Victory? � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 162
The Verdict of Battle: The Law of Victory and the Making of Modern War,
by James Q. Whitman
Understanding Victory: Naval Operations from Trafalgar to the Falklands,
by Geoffrey Till
reviewed by John B� Hattendorf
Book Reviews
Pussycats: Why the Rest Keeps Beating the West and What Can Be
Done about It, by Martin van Creveld
reviewed by Jan van Tol� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 169
Assessing China’s Naval Power: Technological Innovation,
Economic Constraints, and Strategic Implications, by Sarah Kirchberger
reviewed by Dale C� Rielage � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 174
Deng Xiaoping’s Long War: The Military Conflict between China
and Vietnam, 1979–1991, by Xiaoming Zhang
reviewed by Richard J� Norton� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 176
Reflections on Reading � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 179
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War College: Winter 2017 Full Issue
FROM THE EDITORS
It is well to be reminded that the global maritime domain is a vast, largely un-
governed realm where good order particularly requires effective international
coordination under well-understood legal regimes. In “Effective Implementation
of the 2005 Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety
of Maritime Navigation,” James Kraska uses the opportunity of the tenth anniver-
sary of the signing of the SUA Convention (as it is generally called) to review the
status of this important international agreement, which was designed to combat
both maritime terrorism and transnational criminal activity. He concludes that
the international community has been remiss in developing appropriate pro-
cedures to implement the agreement, and suggests a way forward for remedy-
ing this (surprising and dismaying) state of affairs. James Kraska is Howard S.
Levie Professor in the Stockton Center for the Study of International Law at the
Naval War College. Rick Button, in “International Law and Search and Rescue,”
provides a comparable overview of the current status of international maritime
law relating to search and rescue of vessels and persons in distress. Here again,
considerable progress has been made in codifying the legal parameters and best
practices that apply in this area, but much additional work remains to be done,
particularly in clarifying the very difficult issues involving the handling of large
numbers of seaborne migrants and refugees in the Mediterranean and elsewhere.
Rick Button is a senior official in U.S. Coast Guard Headquarters in Washington,
DC.
As John Hanley reminds us, war gaming has been a hallmark of the Naval War
College since the late nineteenth century, and played a particularly important
role during the interwar years in preparing senior officers of the U.S. Navy to
prosecute the Pacific War to its successful conclusion. In “Changing DoD’s Anal-
ysis Paradigm: The Science of War Gaming and Combat/Campaign Simulation,”
Hanley provides an authoritative account of the evolution of military operations
analysis in the American defense community over the last half-century. He ar-
gues that recent advances in chaos and complexity theory call for a rethinking
of the now-dominant “analysis paradigm” that relies on large-scale computer
modeling, in favor of a return to a more traditional approach to operations re-
search and gaming. John Hanley is a former U.S. naval officer who has served
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