NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS IN AFGHANISTAN A Thesis By MUMTAZ AHMAD Submitted

114 Pages·2015·9.06 MB·English

NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS IN AFGHANISTAN

A Thesis
By

MUMTAZ AHMAD

Submitted to Melbourne School of Land & Environment
The University of Melbourne

In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of

Master of Philosophy (MPhil)

April 16, 2015
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
NATURAL RESORUCE CONFLICTS IN AFGHANISTAN ......................................... 1
TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................. ii
LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... iii
LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ iv
ACRONYMS ..................................................................................................................... v
GLOSSARY ...................................................................................................................... vi
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................... vii
CHAPTER - ONE INTRODUCTION .............................................................................. 1
1.1. Problem Statement ............................................................................................... 3
1.2. Research Objectives and Questions ..................................................................... 3
1.2.1. What are the Environmental determinants of the Hazara and Kuchis conflict .............. 3
1.2.2. What are the Socio-Political determinants of the Hazara and Kuchis conflict?...4
1.3. Thesis Structure .................................................................................................... 4
CHAPTER - TWO LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................... 6
2.2. Defining Conflict ................................................................................................. 6
2.3. Understanding the Nature of Natural Resource Conflicts…………………….…7
2.4. Roles of stakeholders, key actors and decision makers ..................................... 14
2.5. Conflict resolution process ................................................................................. 23
2.6. Conflict and local settlement process ................................................................. 25
2.7. Legal aspects of natural resource conflicts ........................................................ 28
2.8. Natural Resource & Escalation of Insurgency ................................................... 31

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CHAPTER - THREE RESEARCH METHODS
3.1. Intorduction ....................................................................................................... 33
3.2. Environmental determinants ............................................................................. 33
3.2.1. Proxy Measure 1: NDVI ................................................................................... 34
3.2.2. Scenes and Timing ............................................................................................ 38
3.2.3. Processing & Analysis ...................................................................................... 40
3.2.4. Smoothing ......................................................................................................... 40
3.2.5. Proxy Measure 2: Land Cover Change ............................................................. 41
3.3. Socio-political determinants .............................................................................. 46
CHAPTER - FOUR CONTEXTUAL BACKGROUND OF THE CONFLICT
4.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 48
4.2. Background and context of Hazara and Kuchis conflict .................................... 48
4.2.1. The Study Area…….…......……………………………...………………..… .50
4.2.2. Who are the Kuchis? .......................................................................................... 52
4.2.3. Who are the Hazaras? ......................................................................................... 52
4.2.4. Key Stakeholders ................................................................................................ 53
4.3. Broader Context of Tribal Conflicts in Afghanistan .......................................... 56
4.4. Brief history of the Hazara and Kuchis conflict...………...………….......……57
4.4.1. 1989-2001 Civil War...…………..……...…………………………….….……57
4.4.2. Hazara and Kuchi conflict during the Taliban regime………...………….……57
4.4.3. 2001 Collapse of Taliban……………...…………………………….…....……58
4.4.4. Hazaras killings in Yakawlang district…...…………………………….…...…59
CHAPTER- FIVE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
5.1. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 60
5.2. Inter-anual NDV Variabelity ............................................................................. 64
5.3. Land Cover Change ........................................................................................... 66
5.4. Concurence with conflict ................................................................................... 69
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CHAPTER - SIX SOCIO-POLITICAL ANALYSIS
6.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 73
6.2. Government Decisions on Pasture and Land Use ..................................................... 77
6.3. Shia and Sunni Issue .......................................................................................... 79
6.4. Establishment of a Local Commission ............................................................... 80
6.5. National Involvement in conflict ....................................................................... 81
CHAPTER - SEVEN SUMMARY OF FINDINGS & DISCUSSION
7.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 84
7.2. Environmental Outlook ...................................................................................... 84
7.3. Social Outlook .................................................................................................... 87
7.4. Policy Implications ............................................................................................ 87
BIBLIOGRAPHY

  .......................................................................................................... 94
APPENDICES

  .......................................................................................................... …101

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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1. Three drivers of conflicts over Natural Resources and the pathways to 14
conflict. Figure adopted from Homer-Dixon, 1995.
Figure 2. Example of how NDVI is calculated for healthy vegetation. 35
Figure 3. Transition dates of global vegetation phenology phases calculated 39
from MODIS data by Zhang et al. 2001.
Figure 4. Geographical location of Hazara and Kuchi conflict 51
Figure 5: Key stakeholders Diagram produced by the researcher 54
Figure 6. Annual spatially averaged NDVI values for each year of the study 62
period were subtracted from year 2000 values and the percent change is plotted
in this figure.
Figure 7. NDVI values for the maximum greenness period (Day of Year 192- 63
223) of the study area are mapped for each year of the study period. While
fluctuations are observable, an overall increasing trend from year 2000 values is
observed.
Figure 8. Inter-annual variability in overall productivity of study area. Each 65
graph shows the percent change in average NDVI values from the previous
years.
Figure 9. Maps of land cover type change over the study area. Cropland increase 67
emerges as an important factor affecting both the availability of grasslands and
physical access to summer time pastures. Graph produced by the researcher
using a spreadsheet application.
Figure 10. Changes in land cover types over the study area. 68
Figure 11: Timeframe of Major Political Regimes in Afghanistan from 1880- 76
2014, Diagram produced by the researcher.
Figure 12. Terrain map of the study area. Cultivated areas restrict access to 86
existing pastures. Image produced by the researcher using GIS software and data
mentioned earlier in the method section).

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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: IGBP Classification scheme: Heighted classes are present in the study 42
area and data related to these classes were extracted from the land cover
product.
Table 2: Occurrence and nature of conflict in the study area throughout the study 69
period; Table produced by the researcher.
Table 3: Land cover changes and natural productivity variability are compared 71
together.
Table 4: Results on Causes behind the Hazara and Kuchi Conflict 73
Table 5: Results on Perception of Main Cause of Hazara and Kuchi Conflict 74

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ACRONYMS

INRM Integrated Natural Resource Management
CSO Central Statistics Office
UN United Nations
AICHRC Afghan Independent Commission on Human Rights Commission
UNFAO United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization
MSLE Melbourne School of Land & Environment
WB World Bank
TBD To be determined
MAIL Ministry of Agriculture Irrigation & Livestock
NRC Natural Resources Conflict
USAID United States Agency for International Development
IDPs Internal Displaced Population
AGS Afghanistan Geo Base System
CH Central Highlands
AINP Afghanistan Immediate Needs Program
BMP Best management practices
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GIS Geographic Information Systems
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KM Kilometer
MEP Monitoring and Evaluation Plan
MONSTR Monitoring Status Tracking Sheets
Reg. Regulation
UNAMA United National Assistance Mission for Afghanistan
PRT Provincial Reconstruction Team
ISAF International Security Assistance Force
WUA Water User Association
MoIA Ministry of Interior Affairs
Mod Ministry of defense

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GLOSSARY

Sunnis - The group now known as Sunnis chose Abu Baker, the prophet's adviser, to
become the first successor, or caliph, to lead the Muslim state.

Shiites -The group known as Shiites favoured Ali, Muhammad's cousin and son-in-law.
Ali and his successors are called imams, who not only lead the Shiites but are considered
to be descendants of Muhammad.

HazaraJat - The Hazarajat also referred to as Hazaristan is a regional name for the
territory inhabited by the Hazara people that lie in the central highlands of Afghanistan.

Outsiders - Any pasture user or group of users, which is not a member of the household
or community recognized as the lawful custodian of the pasture. This includes both
communities local to the area and those who live in other districts or provinces and who
may or may not be nomadic pastoralists. Individual or community owners of Private
Pastures and Community Pastures are not obliged to allow access to outsiders, should
such restriction be necessary in order to bring use of the pasture down to sustainable
levels.

Muzaribat - Any use of land on a temporary basis or share cropping in Afghanistan.

JIRGA - Jirga or local assembly is a local conflict settlement process. It is a non-formal
setup and is usually run by the elders of the communities in Afghanistan.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I wish to express sincere appreciation to my supervisor for his encouragement
and assistance throughout the research and in the preparation of this research work. This
thesis would not have been possible without the help, support and patience of my
principal supervisor, Professor Mark Wang. It was under his tutelage that I developed a
focus and found my study direction. He provided me with technical support and became
more of a mentor and friend, than a professor. Throughout this period I got lost and
disoriented in multiple occasions, but he always hold my hands tight and gave me the
confidence that I can do it and I must do it.

I also wish to thank Professor Simon Batterbury, the chair of my research
committee for reviewing my research work and provide valuable advices and guidance
throughout this process. Without his encouragement and timely support I might not have
completed this journey.

I would like to acknowledge the financial, academic and technical support of the
University of Melbourne and its staff, particularly in the award of a Postgraduate
Research scholarship that provided the necessary financial support for this research. I
would also like to thank my family for the support they provided me through completing
this research work and, without whose love, encouragement & assistance; I would not
have finished this thesis.

In conclusion, I recognize that this research would not have been possible
without the financial assistance of the University of Melbourne for which I’m
immensely grateful.

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