Natural Gas in India: Challenges and Opportunities

231 Pages·2022·6.215 MB·English

by  Anil Kumar Jain

Natural Gas in India
This book provides a detailed discussion on India’s energy mix including descrip-
tive use of the Shannon Wiener diversity index for numerically comparing India’s
diversity in energy supply with other leading e nergy-consuming countries. The
likely supply scenarios of both domestic and imported gas, and price competitive-
ness with competing fuels in differing consuming sectors, have also been presented.
Overall, it covers energy systems, a comparison of the Indian natural gas economy
with other countries and a s cenario-based analysis of gas demand in India in 2030.
Features:
• Presents a well-structured and robust thesis on the challenges and oppor-
tunities for natural gas in India’s energy future.
• Draws upon key insights, lessons and ways forward from the gas sector
reform process.
• Addresses the energy transition scenario towards net zero.
• Includes comparative analysis of India’s diversity of commercial pri-
mary energy supply.
• Uses granular data and visual representations of the same to convey the
key arguments.
This book is aimed at oil and gas industry stakeholders including profession-
als, business executives, t echno-managerial personnel and students in chemical
engineering.

Natural Gas in India
Challenges and Opportunities
Anil Kumar Jain
First edition published 2023
by CRC Press
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© 2023 Anil Kumar Jain
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Library of Congress Cataloging‑in‑Publication Data
A catalog record has been requested for this book
ISBN: 978-1-032-30985-9 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-032-31027-5 (pbk)
ISBN: 978-1-003-30769-3 (ebk)
DOI: 10.1201/9781003307693
Typeset in Times
by codeMantra
Contents
List of Figures ......................................................................................................ix
List of Tables ........................................................................................................xi
Preface.................................................................................................................xv
Acknowledgements ...........................................................................................xvii
About the Author ...............................................................................................xix
Abbreviations .....................................................................................................xxi
Chapter 1 Introduction .....................................................................................1
1.1 India’s Energy Challenges ....................................................1
1.2 Key Factors Affecting Energy Transition.............................2
1.3 India’s Energy Security Concerns ........................................4
1.4 Prospects for Natural Gas in India .......................................6
1.5 Issues Addressed in This Book ............................................8
1.6 Organisation of Chapters ....................................................10
Chapter 2 Natural Gas in India’s Energy Mix ...............................................13
2.1 Indian Ambition for Natural Gas .......................................13
2.2 Natural Gas and Economic Growth ...................................16
2.3 Natural Gas and Diversity in Energy Mix..........................17
2.4 Uncertainty around the Role of Natural Gas in India ........19
Chapter 3 Comparative Analysis of Diversity of India’s Commercial
Primary Energy Supply .................................................................25
3.1 Introduction ........................................................................25
3.2 Approach Adopted for Analysis .........................................26
3.3 Energy Transition in the Study Countries ( 1980–2019) .....27
3.4 Diversity Indices in Energy Systems ..................................33
3.5 Critical Analysis .................................................................37
3.6 Comparison of Diversity in India’s Energy Supply
with Others .........................................................................39
3.7 Summing Up.......................................................................47
Chapter 4 Growth of Natural Gas in India: A Comparative Study ...............53
4.1 Background .........................................................................53
4.2 Approach Adopted for Analysis .........................................54
4.3 Analysis of Impact of Supply and Demand Side
Levers on Natural Gas Consumption .................................56
v
vi Contents
4.4 Comparison between India and Other Countries ...............66
4.5 Summary ............................................................................67
Chapter 5 Natural Gas Supply Outlook .........................................................71
5.1 Introduction ........................................................................71
5.2 Natural Gas Exploration Regimes ......................................73
5.3 Domestic Supply .................................................................74
5.4 Imported Supply .................................................................79
5.5 Availability of Natural Gas Pipeline Infrastructure ...........84
5.6 Supply Projection for 2030 .................................................86
5.7 Conclusion ..........................................................................87
Chapter 6 Price Competitiveness of Natural Gas ..........................................91
6.1 Introduction ........................................................................91
6.2 Prevalent Pricing Policies ...................................................92
6.3 Competitiveness of Natural Gas in Domestic
Cooking ..............................................................................96
6.4 Competitiveness of Natural Gas in Transport ....................99
6.5 Competitiveness of Natural Gas in Commercial Use .........99
6.6 Competitiveness of Natural Gas in Industries ...................101
6.7 Competitiveness of Natural Gas in Power Generation .....103
6.8 Competitiveness of Natural Gas in Urea Manufacture ....106
6.9 Conclusion ........................................................................107
Chapter 7 Natural Gas Demand Scenarios for India ....................................111
7.1 Introduction .......................................................................111
7.2 Projections of Expert Agencies .........................................111
7.3 Approach ...........................................................................113
7.4 Consultation with Experts .................................................117
7.5 Natural Gas Demand in City Gas Distribution ( CGD)
Sector ................................................................................120
7.6 Demand for Natural Gas in Power Sector ........................129
7.7 Natural Gas Demand for Urea Production .......................138
7.8 Natural Gas Demand in Industry .....................................145
7.9 Aggregate Demand for Natural Gas in 2030 ....................154
Chapter 8 Way Forward ...............................................................................163
8.1 Support Needed by Natural Gas .......................................163
8.2 Summary of Findings .......................................................165
8.3 Policy Recommendations .................................................169
8.4 To Sum up ..........................................................................173
Contents vii
References ........................................................................................................177
Annexure 1.......................................................................................................187
Annexure 2.......................................................................................................189
Annexure 3.......................................................................................................195
Index .................................................................................................................203

List of Figures
Figure 3.1 Energy mix of Germany ( 1980–2019) ( BP, 2020) .......................28
Figure 3.2 Energy mix of China ( 1980–2019) ( BP, 2020) ............................29
Figure 3.3 Energy mix of Japan ( 1980–2019) ( BP, 2020) .............................29
Figure 3.4 Energy mix of Brazil ( 1980–2019) ( BP, 2020) ............................30
Figure 3.5 Energy mix of India ( 1980–2019) ( BP, 2020) .............................30
Figure 3.6 Energy mix of USA ( 1980–2019) ( BP, 2020) ..............................31
Figure 3.7 Energy mix of Canada ( 1980–2019) ( BP, 2020) ..........................31
Figure 3.8 Shannon Wiener diversity index graph ( 1980–2019).
(Derived from BP, 2019b.) ...........................................................35
Figure 3.9 Likelihood of rise in share of natural gas to 10% or more by
2030 ( by number of responses)....................................................38
Figure 3.10 Deterrents of natural gas penetration in supply mix ...................39
Figure 3.11 Graph of Shannon Wiener s ub-indices of oil ( 1980–2019) .........40
Figure 3.12 Graph of Shannon Wiener s ub-indices of coal ( 1980–2019) .......41
Figure 3.13 Graph of Shannon Wiener s ub-indices of natural gas
( 1980–2019) .................................................................................42
Figure 3.14 Graph of Shannon Wiener s ub-indices of new renewables
( 1980–2019) .................................................................................43
Figure 3.15 Graph of Shannon Wiener s ub-indices of nuclear energy
( 1980–2019) .................................................................................44
Figure 3.16 Graph of Shannon Wiener s ub-indices of hydropower
( 1980–2019) .................................................................................44
Figure 4.1 Top energy consumers in 2019 ( in Mtoe) ( BP, 2020) ..................54
Figure 4.2 ( a–g) Natural gas consumption by sectors ( in %) ( 1980 and
2015). Note: IEA classifies natural gas used as feedstock in
industries as non-combustible ( IEA, 2017) .................................60
Figure 4.3 ( a–g) Power generation by fuel sources ( in %) ( 1980 and
2019) ( BP, 2020) ..........................................................................62
Figure 4.4 Growth trends in new renewables ( 1980–2019) in Mtoe.
( Data sourced from BP, 2020.) ....................................................63
ix