Natural Gas at the Frontline Between the EU, Russia, and Turkey: A Conflict-Cooperation Perpetuum

280 Pages·2022·5.989 MB·English

by  Roxana Andrei

Natural Gas at the
Frontline Between the EU,
Russia, and Turkey
A Conflict-Cooperation
Perpetuum
Roxana Andrei
Natural Gas at the Frontline Between the EU,
Russia, and Turkey
Roxana Andrei
Natural Gas
at the Frontline
Between the EU,
Russia, and Turkey
A Conflict-Cooperation Perpetuum
Roxana Andrei
Coimbra, Portugal
ISBN 978-3-031-17056-0 ISBN 978-3-031-17057-7 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-17057-7
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To my beloved parents, Ana and Alexandru,
my (re)sources of inspiration and my strength.
Preface
The war in Ukraine and the overlapping energy crisis have reconfigured,
since 2022, the European and the global geopolitical scene, dislocating
not only crucial natural resources, such as natural gas and oil, but also the
pace of the energy transition, with many European countries returning
to the use of more carbon-intensive alternatives, as coal. However, most
importantly, the unprecedented accumulation of the most severe geopo-
litical and energy crises faced by Europe in many decades has dislocated
the continent’s existential security, its basic trust and sense of continuity.
In this light, the book analyses the rapidly unfolding events that have
impacted on the European energy dynamics up to July 2022, performing
an incursion through the past two decades’ evolutions of the cooperation
and conflict relations around four main trigger moments in time: 2000
(the year when Vladimir Putin took over presidency in Russia), 2006
and 2009 (the years of the gas disputes between Ukraine and Russia and
subsequent gas supply interruptions to Europe), 2014 (the annexation of
Crimea) and 2022 (the war in Ukraine).
I introduce an innovative interpretation of the conflict and cooper-
ation dynamics in Europe, by challenging the reader to look beyond
the material aspects of energy security, related to supply and demand,
consumption, production and prices dynamics, which I nonetheless
explain in detail. Thus, I invite the audience to explore the deeper
layer of motivations that underpin the actors’ decisions to engage in
vii
viii PREFACE
conflict and cooperation, by exploring their cognitive and psychological
considerations, in addition to the material ones.
For this purpose, I present a new conceptual tool, the conflict-
cooperation perpetuum, in order to explain why the same players, in this
case the EU, Russia and Turkey, may choose to simultaneously perceive
each other as security threats and trade partners, engaging simultane-
ously in conflict and cooperation with the same ‘Other’. In addition, I
propose applying the framework of ontological security, imported from
psychoanalysis, in order to understand the responses of the EU, Russia
and Turkey to the major existential crises that have affected them in past
years, culminating with the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis of 2022.
The book offers a vast exploration of the energy policies and strategies
of the three key actors, revealing how the EU, Russia and Turkey, along
with other European actors which impacted on their interaction, such
as Ukraine, have been narrating themselves on the international energy
scene and how they have instrumentalised energy security in the conflict
and cooperation dynamics between them.
Coimbra, Portugal Roxana Andrei
Acknowledgements
I wrote this book having in mind my beloved parents, Ana and Alexandru,
who inspired me, with their immense love and support, that any game
should be played for the beauty of it and not for competing with anyone
else than ourselves, to work hard for the things I care about, and to walk
my own way, to follow my own path in life and in my professional work.
And this is what I did when I wrote this book. I did it my way.
My wholehearted thanks go to Professor Maria Raquel Freire from the
University of Coimbra in Portugal, who made it all seem possible with
her warm and kind support, and with her much-needed and welcomed
suggestions. The research was generously funded between 2015 and 2019
by the Foundation for Science and Technology in Portugal, to which I
am thankful for the support offered.
I am equally grateful to Dr. Jack Sharples from the Oxford Institute for
Energy Studies, who patiently reviewed the manuscript in its early stage,
provided me with most valuable insights and encouraged me to publish
the book it has become today.
And finally, a special thank you to my dearest lifelong friends, Sebas-
tian, Anton, Ecaterina, Grigore, Nicolae and their wonderful family, and
to Father Andrei and Father Daniel, for whom nothing is ever impossible.
ix
Contents
1 Introduction 1
The Unsettled Puzzle: The EU, Russia and Turkey Between
Political Foes and Energy Partners 1
The Novelty: Introducing the Conflict-Cooperation
Perpetuum and the Ontological Security Frameworks 4
Methodology 8
Outline of the Book 11
The Way Forward: Future Research Avenues 13
References 14
2 Energy as Security: Overcoming Theoretical
and Conceptual Reductionism in Energy Studies 15
Energy Relations from Cooperative Trade to Conflictual
Geopolitics 16
Theoretical Reductionism in Interpreting and Understanding
Energy Relations in Europe 20
Geopolitical Reductionism: Energy (Re)sources of Conflict 20
The Energy Security Dilemma Bias 20
The Asymmetric Interdependence Bias 22
The Energy Weapon Bias 27
Critical Reductionism: Construction and Securitisation
of Energy in Europe 34
Bridging Theories in Energy Studies: Social
Constructivism and Neoclassical Realism 35
xi
xii CONTENTS
Critical Security Literature and Securitisation Theory:
A Confined Contribution to Energy Studies 37
Conceptual Reductionism in Debating Conflict, Cooperation
and Security in the Energy Field 42
The Conflict-Cooperation Dichotomy Bias: Conflict
and Cooperation as Binary, Opposing Concepts 43
Conceptual Reductionism of Energy Security: The
Material-Ideational Dichotomy Bias 46
References 51
3 Ontological Energy Security: Cognitive and Material
Foundations for a Conflict-Cooperation Perpetuum 61
The Conflict-Cooperation Perpetuum: Conflict
and Cooperation as Coexisting Instances 62
Ontological Security: Cognitive Foundations of Conflict
and Cooperation in the Energy Field 68
Ontological Security: An Innovative Theoretical
Framework for Energy Studies 70
Ontological Security in IR: A Combined
Material-Cognitive Framework of Understanding
Energy Relations in Europe 73
References 82
4 Natural Gas at the Frontline of the Energy Crisis
and the War in Ukraine: A Material Perspective 87
Natural Gas in 2020–2022: A Rollercoaster of Market
Dynamics and Geopolitics 88
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the European
Gas Dynamics: 2020—The Year of Extreme Optimism 88
Natural Gas During the Energy Crisis and the War
in Ukraine: 2021/2022—The Years of Low Supplies
and High Anxieties 92
Every Molecule Matters: The EU’s Alternatives to Russian
Gas and the Future of Natural Gas in Europe 100
Alternatives to Russian Gas: Energy Security as Energy
Survival 100
The Role of Natural Gas in Europe in 2022 and Beyond 118
References 122