Natural Gas as an Instrument of Russian State Power (2011)

2011·2 MB·English

by  Strategic Studies Institute

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Alexander Ghaleb

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Letort Paper
NATURAL GAS AS AN INSTRUMENT
OF RUSSIAN STATE POWER
Alexander Ghaleb
October 2011
The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do
not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Depart-
ment of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Gov-
ernment. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications
enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose clas-
sified information, jeopardize operations security, or misrepre-
sent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empowers them
to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the in-
terest of furthering debate on key issues. This report is cleared for
public release; distribution is unlimited.
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This publication is subject to Title 17, United States Code, Sec-
tions 101 and 105. It is in the public domain and may not be copy-
righted.
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Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should
be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army
War College, 632 Wright Ave, Carlisle, PA 17013-5046.
*****
The author would like to express his gratitude to Professor
Nicholas Kenney from the National Defense University for his
trenchant critiques and guidance during the research and writ-
ing stages of this monograph. I am also grateful to the office of
United States Senator Richard Lugar—and particularly to Marik
String, Senator Lugar’s Professional Staff Member for European
and Eurasian Affairs, Committee on Foreign Relations—for en-
couraging me to examine Russia’s use of natural gas as an instru-
ment of coercion.
This monograph was made possible by conversations and in-
terviews with a large number of energy security experts, energy
professionals, natural gas lobbyists, and policymakers from both
the United States and the European Union. Particular thanks to
Alan Hegburg—Senior Energy and National Security Fellow at
the Center for Strategic and International Studies—and Rose-
mary Kelanic—International Security Research Fellow at the
Harvard Kennedy School—for helping me to better understand
when oil and natural gas can or cannot be used as an instrument
of coercion. Also to Vladimir Lefebvre—Senior Fellow at the
Center for Advanced Defense Studies—Dr. Jennifer Jefferis—
Professor of International Security Studies and Kenneth Baker—
Distinguished Professor and Department of Energy Chair at the
College of International Security Affairs at the National Defense
University—and his research assistant, James Windle, for their
early endorsement of my focus on Russian reflexive control.
Furthermore, Robert Cekuta—U.S. Department of State Dep-
uty Assistant Secretary for Energy, Sanctions and Commodities—
and Edward Christie—Research Partner with the Pan-European
Institute (PEI) of the Turku School of Economics (Finland)—were
instrumental in my understanding of the energy security chal-
lenges faced by the European Union. I am also grateful to the
numerous energy-related lobbying groups—and particularly to
the members of the World LP Gas Association for allowing me
to attend their WLPGA North America/Europe Summit free of
ii
charge—they were very eager to enhance my knowledge with
regard to both the advantages and dangers of fossil fuels, and to
Dr. Charles Ebinger—Director of the Energy Security Initiative
at the Brookings Institution—who taught me a very important
lesson about remaining objective when talking to lobbyists.
Finally, I would like to extend my gratitude to a certain se-
nior oil and gas executive from Doha, Qatar, Mark Trgovich—
Marketing Director at Qatar International Petroleum Marketing
Company—who took precious time away from his incredibly
busy schedule to educate me about the geostrategic significance
of natural gas in the contemporary security environment; and to
all the government agencies and private companies that offered
me a job while I was conducting research for this monograph—I
hope your offers are still on the table when my military contract
expires in January 2014.
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iii

FOREWORD
The slow re-emergence of Russia as a world power
despite its weak military force is of critical significance
for the strategic interests of the United States in Eu-
rope. Since the Cold War, Russia has been perceived
as a broken nation that no longer represents a threat to
the North Atlantic Alliance. This monograph empha-
sizes that Russia overcame this major vulnerability by
developing the capacity to use unilateral economic
sanctions in the form of gas pricing and gas disrup-
tions against many European North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) member states. It agrees with
many scholars and politicians alike who fear that Rus-
sia will leverage its monopoly of natural gas to gain
political concessions. The author suggests it is only a
matter of time until Russia will use natural gas as an
instrument of coercion to disrupt NATO’s decision-
making process.
A key aim of this monograph is to explain why
the rapid global transition from oil to natural gas
will redefine the way policymakers and strategic se-
curity scholars look at the scarcity of natural gas in
Europe. What is unique about this monograph is that
it analyzes the oil and gas markets separately and il-
lustrates, with examples, why in Europe natural gas
is a more potent instrument of coercion than oil. De-
spite these revelations, only 1 month after the German
Government announced its plans to abandon nuclear
power by 2022, in July 2011 German Chancellor An-
gela Merkel disclosed that Germany will need to im-
port more Russian natural gas to make up for the loss
of over 10 gigawatts of generation capacity. Almost
simultaneously, Germany’s largest energy utilities
group, RWE, and the Russian state-controlled gas gi-
v
ant, Gazprom, have agreed to form a strategic part-
nership. The author argues that situations like these
create a delicate state of affairs that will ultimately
undermine the de facto power of NATO in the con-
temporary security environment, particularly vis-à-
vis Russia, unless the dependency on Russian natural
gas is promptly addressed.

DOUGLAS C. LOVELACE, JR.
Director
Strategic Studies Institute
vi
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alexander Ghaleb is a U.S. Army captain with
several assignments to infantry, military intelligence,
and special operations positions. Captain Ghaleb has
written several articles dealing with issues related to
national security. He has studied at top European uni-
versities in Germany, France, and Hungary. Captain
Ghaleb holds a B.BA. in international business from
the George Washington University, an M.A. in stra-
tegic security studies from the National Defense Uni-
versity, and he is an energy security Ph.D. student in
the Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
at the Central European University.
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