Natural experiments in the social sciences: a design-based approach PDF
Preview Natural experiments in the social sciences: a design-based approach
Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences This unique book is the first comprehensive guide to the discovery, analysis, and evaluation of natural experiments—an increasingly popular methodology in the social sciences. Thad Dunning provides an introduction to key issues in causal inference, including model specification, and emphasizes the importance of strong researchdesignovercomplexstatisticalanalysis.Surveyingmanyexamplesofstan- dard natural experiments, regression-discontinuity designs, and instrumental- variables designs, Dunning highlights both the strengths and potential weaknesses of these methods, aiding researchers in better harnessing the promise of natural experimentswhileavoidingthepitfalls.Dunningalsodemonstratesthecontribution of qualitative methods to natural experiments and proposes new ways to integrate qualitativeandquantitativetechniques.Chapterscompletewithexercises,andappen- dices covering specialized topics such as cluster-randomized natural experiments, makethisanidealteachingtoolaswellasavaluablebookforprofessionalresearchers. Thad Dunning is Associate Professor of Political Science at Yale University and a research fellow at Yale’s Institution for Social and Policy Studies and the Whitney andBettyMacMillanCenterforInternationalandAreaStudies.Hehaswrittenona rangeofmethodologicaltopics,includingimpactevaluation,econometriccorrections for selection effects, and multi-method research in the social sciences, and his first book,CrudeDemocracy:NaturalResourceWealthandPoliticalRegimes(Cambridge University Press, 2008), won the Best Book Award from the Comparative DemocratizationSectionoftheAmericanPoliticalScienceAssociation. Strategies for Social Inquiry Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences: A Design-Based Approach Editors ColinElman,MaxwellSchoolofSyracuseUniversity JohnGerring,BostonUniversity JamesMahoney,NorthwesternUniversity EditorialBoard BearBraumoeller,DavidCollier,FrancescoGuala,PeterHedström,TheodoreHopf, UskaliMaki,RoseMcDermott,CharlesRagin,ThedaSkocpol,PeterSpiegler, DavidWaldner,LisaWedeen,ChristopherWinship Thisnewbookseriespresentstextsonawiderangeofissuesbearinguponthepractice ofsocialinquiry.Strategiesareconstruedbroadlytoembracethefullspectrumof approachestoanalysis,aswellasrelevantissuesinphilosophyofsocialscience. PublishedTitles JohnGerring,SocialScienceMethodology:AUnifiedFramework,2ndedition MichaelCoppedge,DemocratizationandResearchMethods CarstenQ.SchneiderandClaudiusWagemann,Set-TheoreticMethodsfortheSocial Sciences:AGuidetoQualitativeComparativeAnalysis ForthcomingTitles DianaKapiszewski,LaurenM.MacLeanandBenjaminL.Read,FieldResearchin PoliticalScience JasonSeawright,Multi-MethodSocialScience:CombiningQualitativeand QuantitativeTools Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences A Design-Based Approach Thad Dunning cambridge university press Cambridge,NewYork,Melbourne,Madrid,CapeTown, Singapore,SãoPaulo,Delhi,MexicoCity CambridgeUniversityPress TheEdinburghBuilding,CambridgeCB28RU,UK PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyCambridgeUniversityPress,NewYork www.cambridge.org Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781107698000 ©ThadDunning2012 Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements, noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress. Firstpublished2012 PrintedandBoundinGreatBritainbytheMPGBooksGroup AcatalogrecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary LibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationdata Dunning,Thad,1973– Naturalexperimentsinthesocialsciences:adesign-basedapproach/ThadDunning. p. cm.–(Strategiesforsocialinquiry) Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. ISBN978-1-107-69800-0 1. Socialsciences–Experiments. 2. Socialsciences–Research. 3. Experimentaldesign. I. Title. H62.D797 2012 300.7204–dc23 2012009061 ISBN978-1-107-01766-5Hardback ISBN978-1-107-69800-0Paperback Additionalresourcesforthispublicationatwww.cambridge.org/dunning CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceor accuracyofURLsforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredto inthispublication,anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuch websitesis,orwillremain,accurateorappropriate. DedicatedtothememoryofDavidA.Freedman Contents Detailedtableofcontents pageix Listoffigures xiv Listoftables xv Listofboxes xvi Prefaceandacknowledgements xvii 1 Introduction:whynaturalexperiments? 1 Part I Discovering natural experiments 39 2 Standardnaturalexperiments 41 3 Regression-discontinuitydesigns 63 4 Instrumental-variablesdesigns 87 Part II Analyzing natural experiments 103 5 Simplicityandtransparency:keystoquantitativeanalysis 105 6 Samplingprocessesandstandarderrors 165 7 Thecentralroleofqualitativeevidence 208 Part III Evaluating natural experiments 233 8 Howplausibleisas-ifrandom? 235 9 Howcredibleisthemodel? 256 10 Howrelevantistheintervention? 289 viii Contents Part IV Conclusion 311 11 Buildingstrongdesignsthroughmulti-methodresearch 313 References 338 Index 353
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