Natural and Man-Made Hazards: Proceedings of the International Symposium held at Rimouski, Quebec, Canada, 3—9 August, 1986

864 Pages·1988·26.564 MB·English

by  W. M. Adams, G. D. Curtis (auth.), M. I. El-Sabh, T. S. Murty (eds.)

NATURAL AND MAN-MADE HAZARDS
NATURAL AND
MAN-MADE
HAZARDS
Proceedings oft he International Symposium held at
Rimouski, Quebec, Canada, 3-9 August, 1986
Edited by
M. I. EL-SABH
Departement d'Oceanographie, Universite du Quebec d Rimouski,
Rimouski, Quebec, Canada
and
T. S. MURTY
Institute of Ocean Sciences, Department of Fisheries and Oceans,
Sidney (B. C.), Canada
D. REIDEL PUBLISHING COMPANY
A MEMBER OF THE KLUWER ACADEMICPUBUSHERSGROUP
DORDREChlTjBOSTONjLANCASTERjTOKYO
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Natural and man-made hazards.
"Rimouski International Symposium on Natural and Man-made Hazards was organized by the
Universite du Quebec ... co-sponsored by Tsunami Society ... let al.I" - Pref.
Bibliography: p.
Includes index.
1. Natural disasters - Congresses. 2. Man - Influence on nature - Congresses.
3. Natural disaster warning systems - Congresses. I. EI-Sabh, Mohammed I., 1939-
II. Murty, T. S., 1937- III. Rimouski International Symposium on Natural and man
made Hazards (1986). IV. Universite du Quebec. V. Tsunami Society.
GB5001.N36 1987 363.3' 4 87-16576
ISBN-13: 978-94-010-7142-0 e-ISBN-13: 978-94-009-1433-9
DOT: 10.1007/978-94-009-1433-9
Published by D. Reidel Publishing Company,
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All Rights Reserved
© 1988 by D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland
Softcover reprint of the hardcover I st edition 1988
No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
M. I. EL-SABH and T. S. MURTY / Preface ix
INTRODUCTION
W. M. ADAMS and G. D. CURTIS / The Importance of Similarities Among
Multiple Hazard Phenomena 3
P. JOV ANOVTC / Modelling of Relationship between Natural and Man-made
H~~s 9
PART I / GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS
A. E. S C HE IDE G G E R / Hazards from Mass Movements in Mountain Regions 21
A. E. STEVENS / Earthquake Hazard and Risk in Canada 43
C. LOMNTTZ / The 1985 Mexico Earthquake 63
K. MASAKI, H. TANIGUCHI, and K. TIDA / Seismic Ground Motion and
Damage Caused by Large Earthquakes in Nagoya, Japan 81
H. ISHIDA, M. TAKEMURA, A. AMANO, T. OHTA, and K. HORIKOSHI /
Seismic Risk Analysis Using both Earthquake Data and Active Fault Data 95
J. TALANDIER and D. REYMOND / A New Approach for a Quick Estimation
of the Seismic Moment, Magnitude Mm? 109
J. Y. C HAG NON and J. L 0 CAT / The Effects of Seismic Activity on the Soils
of the Charlevoix Area - Quebec, Canada 125
C. T. SCHAFER and J. N. SMITH / Evidence of the Occurrence and
Magnitude of Terrestrial Landslides in Recent Saguenay Fjord Sediments 137
K. M. ONUOHA and K. O. UMA / An Appraisal of Recent Geologic and
Hydrologic Hazards in Nigeria 147
PART II / TSUNAMI AND STORM SURGE HAZARDS
N. K. SAXENA and T. S. MURTY / Tsunami Research - A Review and New
Concepts 163
P. A. LOCKRIDGE / Historical Tsunamis in the Pacific Basin 171
G. PARARAS-CARA Y ANNIS / Risk Assessment ofthe Tsunami Hazard 183
J. TALANDIER and F. BOURROUILH-LE-JAN / High Energy Sedimentation
in French Polynesia: Cyclone or Tsunami? 193
M. I. EL-SABH, T. S. MURTY, and J. F. DUMAIS / Tsunami Hazards in the
St. Lawrence Estuary, Canada 201
C. L. MADER, M. VITOUSEK, and S. LUKAS / Numerical Modelling of Atoll
Reef Harbors 215
R. P. SHAW and W. NEU / Long Wave Trapping by Axisymmetric
Topographies 227
vi TABLE OF CONTENTS
T. S. MURTY / Mathematical Modelling of Global Storm Surges Problems 239
G. S. SHARMA andA. SATYANARAYANA MURTH / Storm Surges along the
East Coast of India 257
Y. TSUCHIY A and K. KA WATA / Historical Changes of Storm-surge Disasters
in Osaka 279
M. 1. EL-SABH, T. S. MURTY, and J.-M. BRIAND / Negative Storm Surges on
Canada's East Coast 305
PART III/SEA LEVELS, FLOODS AND DROUGHT HAZARDS
G. A. McKAY / Drought: A Global Perspective 319
V. P. SUBRAHMANYAM / Hazards of Floods and Droughts in India 337
B. BOBEE and F. ASHKAR / Review of Statistical Methods for Estimating
Flood Risk with Special Emphasis on the Log Pearson Type 3 Distribution 357
G. S. QUARAISHEE / Variation in the Indus River Discharges and their
Hazards 369
J. P. CHANUT, D. D'ASTOUS, and M. I. EL-SABH / Modelling the Natural
and Anthropogenic Variations of the St. Lawrence Water Level 377
Y. OUELLET and P. DUPUIS / Choice of Water Level Elevation for the
Design of Coastal Structures 395
J. M. HUBERTZ, C. E. ABEL, and R. E. JENSEN / A Hindcast of Winds,
Waves, Water Levels and Currents during Hurricane Gloria 411
PART IV / ICE AND ICEBERG HAZARDS
T. S. MURTY and M. 1. EL-SABH / Edge Waves and Ice Ride-up on
Shorelines 429
J. R. MARKO, D. B. FISSEL and J. D. MILLER / Iceberg Movement
Prediction off the Canadian East Coast 435
PART V / MAN'S INTERVENTION IN THE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT
A. A. ALEEM / Case Studies of Recent Environmental Hazards in the Eastern
Mediterranean and Red Sea 465
N. M. DOWIDAR / Effect of Aswan High Dam on the Biological Productivity
of the South Eastern Mediterranean 477
s. N. MESSIEH and M. I. EL-SABH / Man-made Environmental Changes in
the Southern Gulf of S1. Lawrencel, and their Possible Impact on Inshore
Fisheries 499
G. STORA and A. ARNOUX / Effects on Mediterranean Lagoon Macro-
benthos of a River Diversion: Assessment and Analytical Review 525
G. R. DABORN and M. J. DADSWELL / Natural and Anthropogenic Changes
in the Bay of Fundy - Gulf of Maine - Georges Bank System 547
TABLE OF CONTENTS Vll
PART VI/WATER AND AIR POLLUTION
M. A. H. SAAD, O. A. EL-RA YIS, and F. EL-NADY I Problems of Sewage
Pollution in Alexandria, Egypt 563
E. PELLETIER I Oil Spill in the St. Lawrence Estuary: A Preliminary
Approach to a Risk Estimation Model 575
B. Z. SIEGEL, S. M. SIEGEL, M. NACHBAR-HAPAI, and C. RUSSELL I
Geotoxicology: Are Thermal Mercury and Sulfur Emissions Hazardous to
Health? 589
S. M. DAGGUPATY I Response to Accidental Release of Toxic Chemicals into
the Atmosphere using - AQPAC 599
M. EL-RAEY, A. SHOAIB, M. S. HELMI, and A. EL-HADIDI I Remote
Sensing of Aerosol Size Distribution 609
PART VII / CLIMATIC HAZARDS
A. B. PITTOCK I Climatic Catastrophes: The Local and Global Effects of
Greenhouse Gases and Nuclear Winter 621
M. B. DANARD and T. S. MURTY I On the Effects of Increased Carbon
Dioxide in the Atmosphere on Temperature and Precipitation in Western
Canada 635
R. K. R. VUPPUTURI I The Interactive Effects of Large Injections of Smoke,
Dust and NO on Atmospheric Temperature and Ozone Structure and
x
Surface Climate 643
S. BHARTENDU and S. J. COHEN I A Regional Study of Impacts on
Residential Heating Energy Requirements Due to CO Induced Climate
2
Change in Ontario 669
L. LAPOINTE I Acid Precipitation: A Catastrophic Threat to the Environment 683
J. PUDYKIEWICZ / Numerical Simulation of the Transport of Radioactive
Clouds from the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident 695
P. N. GEORGIOU and A. G. DAVENPORT I Estimation of the Wind Hazard
in Tropical Cyclone Regions 709
J. F. DUPON I The Effects of the Cyclones of 1983 on the Atolls of the
Tuamotu Archipelago (French Polynesia) 727
M. J. NEWARK I The Tornado Hazard in Canada 743
PART VIII/PREPAREDNESS
H. TAZIEFF / Forecasting Volcanic Eruption Disasters 751
G. PARARAS-CARA YANNIS I Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific: An
Example of International Cooperation 773
A. A. GIESECKE I A Program for the Mitigation of Earthquake Effects in the
Andean Region (Project SISRA) 781
K. M. ONUOHA I Earthquake Hazard Prevention and Mitigation in the West
African Sub-region 787
L. A. SWICK I Bhopal: Lessons for Canada 799
J. KUROIWA I Physical Planning for Multi-Hazard Mitigation 805
viii TABLE OF CONTENTS
PART IX / SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS AND REPORTS
OF SCIENTIFIC SESSIONS
W. M. ADAMS / Summary of Symposium 819
841
LIST OF PARTICIPANTS
SOME IMPRESSIONS OF THE PARTICIPANTS 855
AWARDS PRESENTED 859
THE SYMPOSIUM IN PHOTO 861
INDEX OF NAMES 867
INDEX OF SUBJECTS 882
PREFACE
In recent years, several major natural and man-made hazards have challenged scientists,
government officials and the public in general: earthquakes, major volcanic and other
seismic eruptions in Mount St. Helens, EI Chichon, Mexico city, Nevado del Ruiz,
Japan, Italy, Greece, Cameroon and many other places on our globe; Tsunami in the
Pacific Ocean and deadly storm surges along the coasts of India, Bangladesh and Japan;
Cyclones, floods, thunderstorms, snow storms, tornadoes, drought, desertification and
other climatic catastrophes; Amoco-Cadiz oil spill accident (France), Three-Mile Island
(U.S.A.) and Chernobyl (U.S.S.R.) nuclear accidents, Bhopal chemical accident (India),
acid rain (Canada, U.S.A.) and other technological disasters. Such hazards have snuffed
out millions of lives, infli<;ted billions of dollars in damage and scarred the societies they
touched.
Research on natural hazards is moving recently to a new era of theoretical advances,
large-scale field experiments, expensive experimental testing facilities, use of super
computers, access to global monitoring and communication facilities. However, these
studies are often dealt with separately from an academic point of view and do not take
an interdisciplinary approach to encourage interaction among various scientists,
engineers, administrators, civil defense officials and policy makers dealing with hazard
mitigation. The international Tsunami Society, based at Honolulu, U.S.A., has arranged
in 1982 the first such interdisciplinary symposium. The second one, on which this book
is based, was held in Rimouski (Quebec), Canada during August 3-9, 1986.
The Rimouski International Symposium on Natural and Man-made Hazards was
a
organized by the Universite du Quebec Rimouski (UQAR) and co-sponsored by the
following organizations:
The Tsunami Society.
The International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG).
The International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Oceans (IAPSO).
The International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC).
The Regional Center for Seismology for South America (CERESIS).
The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC).
UNESCO Division of Marine Sciences.
The United Nations Office of the Disaster Relief Co-ordinator (UNDRO).
The Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS).
Emergency Preparedness Canada (EPC).
Environnement-Quebec.
The objectives of this symposium were to promote the advancement of hazard
sciences, to perceive and explore those aspects that may be similar among some of the
various hazards, to review the latest developments in some selected fields, and also to
outline new directions fot future research. The agencies sponsoring the symposium have
recognized the need for much greater interaction between scientific and operational
disciplines with the hope that dialogue amongst delegates will lead to a deeper
understanding of the Natural and Man-made Hazards and their long-term mitigation
measures.
Participants initially met in Quebec City where the official opening took place on
M. I. El-Sabh and T. S. Murty (eds.), Natural and Man-Made Hazards, ix-xi.
©1988 by D. Reidel Publishing Company.
x PREFACE
August 3, 1986, then travelled to Rimouski where all scientific sessions were held
during the period August 5-9, 1986. About 200 scientists, engineers and policy makers
at all levels, including accompanying persons, from ten countries participated to make
the symposium a great success. Such group of active and eminent scientists from
different countries and different disciplines, provided a forum for assemblage of
discussion and foster a mutually beneficial exchange of information on major recent
discoveries, essential mechanisms, impelling question-marks and valuable suggestions
for future research on natural and man-made hazards.
In all, 82 papers were submitted prior to the opening of the symposium. The papers
presented, orally or by poster, addressed a very broad range of topics which proved to
be a significant value for future research. They included broad syntheses of current
knowledge and information punctuated and complemented by detailed accounts of
particular disasters occurred in recent years. The 56 papers accepted for publication
in this volume were subjected to rigorous scientific review, and have in many cases
undergone substantial revision from the form initially submitted. It should be mentioned
that liability for any opinion expressed by the contributors which is obscence, objec
tionable, indecent or of a libellous or scandalous character shall rest with the authors
and that neither the editors nor the publisher can assume any responsibility of such
opinion. We wish to thank the reviewers who took time from their already busy
schedules to contribute to the technical quality of this book. It is hoped that this book
will contribute to increase international development of scientific and technical knowl
edge of natural and man-made hazards and to serve to protect mankind from their
ravages.
We wish to express our exceptional appreciation to members of the Local Organizing
Committee (Louise Dufresne-Dube, Gaston Desrosiers, Bernard Marinier, Norman
Silverberg, Yves Gratton, Bruno Vincent, Anne Mauviel, J.-G. Pigeon, Rejean Martin,
Mario Belanger and Lynda Themens) for the excellent and noteworthy hospitality and
their dedicated work in preparing and animating the symposium, and to all invited and
contributed speakers, chairmen, rapporteurs, and participants for the innovative and de
dicated creation and conduct of the symposium. We also wish to express our heartfelt
thanks to the following organizations for their financial support in order to make this
important international event a reality, made possible the participation by scientists from
distant laboratories and help in the preparation and publication of this volume:
International organizations (The Tsunami Society, IUGG, IAPSO, UNESCO,
UNDRO,IOC).
Government of Canada (Emergency Preparedness Canada, Agence Canadienne
de developpement international (ACDI), Expansion industrielle regionale, Secre
tariat d'Etat).
Government of the Province of Quebec (Minist eres de I'Environnement, du
Tourisme, de I'Enseignement superieur et de la Science, des Relations inter
nationales, Office de planification et de developpemeot du Quebec).
Other financial supports were received from Hydro-Quebec and Mrs. Olive Adams.
a
The financial and technical support of the Universite du Quebec Rimouski must also
be recognized for providing one of us (M.LE.) with the opportunity to participate in this
symposium as coordinator, and many of the resources needed to complete and make it a
real success.
We also wish to express our sincere thanks to Jocelyne Gagnon, Louisette Roy,
PREFACE Xl
Nicole Plante and Lorraine Renouf, for their secretarial assistance and their usually
gracious toleration of the many hours consumed in preparing the Symposium and this
a
publication; to Dr. Guy Massicotte, rector of the Universite du Quebec Rimouski; to
Mr. George Curtis, President of the Tsunami Society; to the Honorable Monique
Vezina, deputy and Minister for External Relations, Ottawa; and to Mr. Michel
Tremblay, deputy at the National Assembly, Quebec, for their support and encourage
ment. Finally, we wish to thank our wives, Louise and Kamala, for their patience and
understanding throughout the years.
We dedicate this book to Dr. W. M. Adams, founder of the Tsunami Society, for his
research and efforts in promoting methods of prevention and mitigation of natural
catastrophes. Commemorative volumes are usually reserved for the occasion of retire
ment. It is unusual to honor a man who is still an active researcher and teacher, and who
is still more than a decade from retirement, but the magnitude and persistence of
William Mansfield Adams' contributions to natural hazards clearly warrant such an
honor. Most of Bill's professional career has been associated with a single institute, the
Institute of Geophysics of the University of Hawaii at Honolulu, but his influence on
natural hazard research has been world-wide.
Rimouski (Quebec), Canada M. I. EL-SABH
January 1987 T. S. MURTY