NATO's Air War for Kosovo: A Strategic and Operational Assessment (Project Air Force Series on Operation Allied Force)

323 Pages·2001·2.05 MB·English

by  Benjamin S. Lambeth

A Strategic
and Operational
Assessment
Benjamin S. Lambeth
Prepared for the United States Air Force
Project AIR FORCE
R
Approved for public release;distribution unlimited
The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air
Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may
be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of
Plans, Hq USAF.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Lambeth, Benjamin S.
NATO’s air war for Kosovo : a strategic and operational assessment / Benjamin
S. Lambeth.
p. cm.
“MR-1365.”
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 0-8330-3050-7
1. Kosovo (Serbia)—History—Civil War, 1998—Aerial operations. 2. Operation
Allied Force, 1999. I. Title.
DR2087.5 .L36 2001
949.7103—dc21
2001048221
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Cover design by Peter Soriano
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RAND MR1365-1.1
Nis
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Sjenicla l KLOPAONIK l PrlokulpZljietoDroaldjeavalc
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Map of Kosovo

PREFACE
On March 24, 1999, NATO embarked on a 78-day air war aimed at
compelling the government of Yugoslavia and its elected president,
Slobodan Milosevic, to halt and reverse the human rights abuses that
were being committed by armed Serbs against the ethnic Albanian
majority living in Yugoslavia’s Serbian province of Kosovo. That ef-
fort, called Operation Allied Force, ended on June 9 after Milosevic
finally acceded to NATO’s demands and a withdrawal of Serb forces
from Kosovo had begun. The air war was a first of that magnitude for
NATO and represented the third largest strategic application of air
power by the United States since World War II, exceeded only by the
Vietnam War and Operation Desert Storm in scale and intensity.
With a view toward capturing the many useful insights to be ex-
tracted from that experience, the U.S. Air Force chief of staff, General
Michael Ryan, asked Headquarters United States Air Forces in
Europe (Hq USAFE) shortly after Allied Force ended to establish
a studies and analysis office (USAFE/SA) to manage all USAF-
sponsored assessments of the air war. The director of that office,
Brigadier General John Corley, in turn asked RAND’s Project AIR
FORCE to contribute to the assessment effort across a wide spectrum
of topics, ranging from individual platform and systems performance
to command and control, operational support, strategy and plan-
ning, and other considerations bearing on the air war’s effectiveness.
This book examines the conduct and results of Operation Allied
Force at the strategic and operational levels. An earlier and less de-
veloped version appeared as a chapter in the author’s previous book
The Transformation of American Air Power,which was published by
Cornell University Press in September 2000. The research docu-
v
vi NATO’s Air War for Kosovo: A Strategic and Operational Assessment
mented herein was carried out in Project AIR FORCE’s Strategy and
Doctrine Program and was completed in August 2001. All
photographs included in this study were provided by the U.S.
Department of Defense. The book should be of interest to USAF
officers and other members of the U.S. national security community
concerned with strategy and force employment issues raised by
NATO’s air war for Kosovo and with the implications of that
experience for force development, air power doctrine, and concepts
of operations for joint and coalition warfare.
Other documents published in this series currently include the fol-
lowing:
MR-1279-AF,Command and Control and Battle Management: Expe-
riences from the Air War over Serbia, James E. Schneider, Myron
Hura, Gary McLeod (Government publication; not releasable to the
general public)
MR-1326-AF, Aircraft Weapon Employment in Operation Allied Force,
William Stanley, Carl Rhodes, Robert Uy, Sherrill Lingel (Government
publication; not releasable to the general public)
MR-1351-AF, The Conflict over Kosovo: Why Milosevic Decided to
Settle When He Did, Stephen Hosmer
MR-1391-AF, European Contributions to Operation Allied Force:
Implications for Transatlantic Cooperation, John E. Peters, Stuart
Johnson, Nora Bensahel, Timothy Liston, Traci Williams
DB-332-AF, Aircraft Survivability in Operation Allied Force, William
Stanley, Sherrill Lingel, Carl Rhodes, Jody Jacobs, Robert Uy
(Government publication; not releasable to the general public)
Topics examined in series documents nearing completion include:
• Supporting Expeditionary Aerospace Forces: Lessons from the
Air War Over Serbia
• Lessons Learned from Operation Allied Force Tanker Operations
Preface vii
Project AIR FORCE
Project AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the Air Force’s federally
funded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies and
analysis. It provides the USAF with independent analyses of policy
alternatives affecting the deployment, employment, combat readi-
ness, and support of current and future air and space forces. Re-
search is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Develop-
ment; Manpower, Readiness, and Training; Resource Management;
and Strategy and Doctrine.

CONTENTS
Frontispiece: Map of Kosovo
Preface ................................................................................... v
Figures .................................................................................... xi
Summary ................................................................................ xiii
Acknowledgments ................................................................... xxv
Acronyms ............................................................................... xxix
Chapter One
INTRODUCTION .............................................................. 1
Chapter Two
PRELUDE TO COMBAT ..................................................... 5
Chapter Three
THE AIR WAR UNFOLDS ................................................... 17
Initial Attacks and Their Effects .......................................... 19
The Air War Bogs Down ..................................................... 25
NATO Finally Escalates ...................................................... 38
Facing the Need for a Ground Option ................................. 43
Countdown to Capitulation ............................................... 48
The Endgame .................................................................... 56
Chapter Four
WHY MILOSEVIC GAVE UP WHEN HE DID........................ 67
Considerations in Addition to the Bombing........................ 69
The Prospect of a Ground Invasion .................................... 72
ix