National Security Through A Cockeyed Lens: How Cognitive Bias Impacts U.S. Foreign Policy PDF
Preview National Security Through A Cockeyed Lens: How Cognitive Bias Impacts U.S. Foreign Policy
National Security through a Cockeyed Lens This page intentionally left blank National Security through a Cockeyed Lens How Cognitive Bias Impacts U.S. Foreign Policy Steve A. YetIv Johns Hopkins University Press Baltimore © 2013 Johns Hopkins University Press All rights reserved. Published 2013 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper 2 4 6 8 9 7 5 3 1 Johns Hopkins University Press 2715 North Charles Street Baltimore, Maryland 21218-4363 www.press.jhu.edu Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Yetiv, Steven A. National security through a cockeyed lens : how cognitive bias impacts U.S. foreign policy / Steve A. Yetiv. pages cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-4214-1125-5 (paperback)—ISBN 1-4214-1125-3 (paperback)— ISBN 978-1-4214-1126-2 (electronic)—ISBN 1-4214-1126-1 (electronic) 1. National security—United States—Decision making. 2. International relations—Psychological aspects. 3. Decision making—Psychological aspects. I. title. UA23.Y37 2013 355'.033573—dc23 2013006069 A catalog record for this book is available from the British Library. Special discounts are available for bulk purchases of this book. For more information, please contact Special Sales at 410-516-6936 or [email protected]. Johns Hopkins University Press uses environmentally friendly book materials, including recycled text paper that is composed of at least 30 percent post-consumer waste, whenever possible. contents Acknowledgments vii Introduction: When Psychology Meets Decision Making 1 1 Afghanistan and Conflict: Intention and Threat Perception 8 2 President Reagan and Iran-Contra: Focus Feature 21 3 Radical Terrorism: A Cockeyed Lens 34 4 The 2003 Invasion of Iraq: A War of Overconfidence 49 5 U.S. Energy Policy: Short-Term Bias 71 Conclusion: Making Better Decisions 95 Glossary 117 Notes 121 Bibliography 137 Index 151 This page intentionally left blank acknowledgments I started to write this book in 2002, after having several long discussions with a colleague about the extent to which countries make rational decisions. (Yes, I know, we must be nerds.) Over that time period, I incurred many intellectual debts. In particular, I thank Jennifer Cunningham, Lowell Feld, Mark Haas, Fran Jacobsen, Patrick James, Robert Jervis, Rose McDermott, Mark O’Reilly, Katerina Oskarsson, Jonathan Renshon, David Welch, and Liz Zanoni for their comments and inputs, as well as the anonymous reviewers for the Johns Hopkins University Press. tulu Balkir, Scott Duryea, and Sagar Rijal, my research assistants over the past few years, were also helpful. I also thank my copyeditor, Ashleigh McKown, and my editor, Suzanne Flinchbaugh. Suzanne ably guided the manuscript after taking over from the late Henry tom, who had shown initial interest in the work and who had successfully guided the projects of so many scholars. This page intentionally left blank National Security through a Cockeyed Lens
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