National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska : final integrated activity plan, environmental impact statement

2012·93.8 MB·English

by  United States. Bureau of Land Management. Alaska State Office

BLM LIBRARY
88074192
November 2012
National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska
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Integrated Activity Plan
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Environmental Impact Statement
Volume 4: Chapter 4 (Sections 4.8-4.13)
U.S. Department of the Interior
Bureau of Land Management
The Bureau of Land Management Today
Our Vision
Tq enhance the quality of life for all citizens through the balanced
stewardship of America’s public lands and resources.
Our Mission
To sustain the health, diversity, and productivity of the public lands
for the use and enjoyment of present and future generations.
BLM/AK/PL-12/002+1610+AK9300
Cover Photos:
1. Along the Archimedes Ridge in the Utukok River Uplands
of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.
© Patrick Endres
2. Winter petroleum exploration, National Petroleum
Reserve-Alaska. Photo by NS SI
3. Polar Bear, North Slope, Alaska.
4. Two newly born caribou calves in the Utukok River
Uplands of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.
© Patrick Endres
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National Petroleum H
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Reserve-Alaska
FINAL
Integrated Activity Plan/
Environmental Impact Statement
Volume 4
Chapter 4 (sections 4.8 to 4.13)
Prepared by:
U.S. Department of the Interior
Bureau of Land Management
Anchorage, Alaska
In cooperation with:
North Slope Borough
U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
November 2012
How the IAP/EIS is Organized
VOLUME 1 ,
Chapter 1 - Introduction: Summarizes the purpose of and need for this IAP/EIS and
decisions to be made.
Chapter 2 — Alternatives: Describes and compares proposed management alternatives.
Chapter 3 — Affected Environment: Presents existing natural and socioeconomic
resources in the NPR-A and trends, including those associated with climate
change.
VOLUME 2
Chapter 4 — Environmental Consequences (sections 4.1 — 4.4): Provides the assumptions
upon which the impact analysis rests and evaluates impacts of Alternatives A and B-l on
resources and uses in the NPR-A relevant to making a decision among the alternatives.
VOLUME 3
Chapter 4 - Environmental Consequences continued (sections 4.5 - 4.7): Evaluates
impacts of Alternatives B-2 (preferred alternative), C, and D on resources and uses in the
NPR-A relevant to making a decision among the alternatives.
VOLUME 4
Chapter 4 - Environmental Consequences continued (sections 4.8 - 4.13): Evaluates the
cumulative impacts on resources and uses in the NPR-A and other effects relevant to
making a decision among the alternatives.
VOLUME 5
Chapter 5 - Consultation and Coordination: Describes public and government (including
tribal) consultation undertaken for this plan and the development of alternatives and
lists the plan’s preparers.
Chapter 6 — Comments and Responses: Presents public comments on the Draft IAP/EIS
and responses to the comments.
VOLUME 6
Appendix A: ANILCA Section 810 Analysis of Subsistence Impacts
Appendix B: Federal, State, and Local Permits and/or Approvals for Oil and Gas
Exploration, Development, and Production Activities
Appendix C: NPR-A Climate Change Analysis: An Assessment of Climate Change
Variables in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska
Appendix D: Essential Fish Habitat
Appendix E: Common, Scientific and Inupiaq Names of Species Listed in the IAP/EIS
Appendix F: BLM Sensitive Species List for Alaska
Appendix G: Information, Models, and the Assumptions Used to Analyze the Effects of
Oil Spills
Appendix H: Air Quality Related Values and Dispersion Modeling Results
Glossary and Bibliography
VOLUME 7
Maps
Contents of Volume 4
CHAPTER 4: Environmental Consequences (Continued).1
4.8 Cumulative Effects.1
4.8.1 Structure of the Cumulative Impacts Analysis.1
4.8.2 Activities Not Associated with Oil and Gas Exploration and Development
Considered in the Cumulative Effects Analysis.4
4.8.3 Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Activities Considered in the
Cumulative Effects Analysis.10
4.8.4 Cumulative Oil Spills.65
4.8.5 Resource Protection Measures Considered in the Cumulative Effects Analysis ..67
4.8.6 Other Information Considered in Cumulative Effects Analysis.70
4.8.7 Cumulative Effects on the Environment.71
4.8.7.1 Air Quality and Climate.71
4.8.7.2 Paleontological Resources.76
4.8.7.3 Soil Resources.81
4.8.7.4 Water Resources and Water Quality.89
4.8.7.5 Vegetation.98
4.8.7.6 Wetlands and Floodplains.107
4.8.7.7 Fish.114
4.8.7.8 Birds.122
4.8.7.9 Terrestrial Mammals.144
4.8.7.10 Marine Mammals.161
4.8.7.11 Special Status Species.168
4.8.7.12 Cultural Resources.214
4.8.7.13 Subsistence.219
4.8.7.14 Sociocultural Systems.242
4.8.7.15 Environmental Justice.256
4.8.7.16 Recreation Resources.268
4.8.7.17 Wild and Scenic Rivers.271
4.8.7.18 Wilderness Characteristics.273
4.8.7.19 Visual Resources.276
4.8.7.20 Economy.280
4.8.7.21 Public Health.288
4.9 Unavoidable Adverse Effects.297
4.10 Relationship between Local Short-term Uses and Maintenance and Enhancement
of Long-term Productivity.307
4.11 Irreversible and Irretrievable Commitment of Resources.317
4.12 Low-probability, Very Large Oil Spill.323
4.13 Energy Requirements and Conservation Potential of Various Alternatives and
Mitigation Measures.343
Index .345
National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska
Final Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement i
Contents
Tables
i
Table 4-33. Physical size of the North Slope villages considered in the cumulative effects
analysis.4
Table 4-34. Population of North Slope villages within the cumulative effects analysis area.5
Table 4-35. Distant Early Warning-Line and radar sites constructed on the North Slope of
Alaska.8
Table 4-36. Oil exploration and development on the North Slope.11
Table 4-37. Past oil and gas development on the North Slope.20
Table 4-38. North Slope oil infrastructure (1968-2001).22
Table 4-39. Future production of conventional oil and gas used in the cumulative impact
analysis, 2012-2100.44
Table 4-40. Gravel and borrow site footprint assumptions.45
Table 4-41. Industrial disturbed areas on the North Slope, 1968 to 2001 (in acres).58
Table 4-42. NPR-A cumulative large oil-spill-occurrence estimates resulting from future oil
production, 2012-2100.67
Table 4-43. Alaska historical and projected greenhouse gas emissions by source category
1990 - 2025 (Tg C02 Eq). 76
Table 4-44. Examples of North Slope concerns/information attributed to oil and gas
activities provided at public meetings 1976-2012.225
National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska
Final Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement
ii
Section 4.8:
Cumulative Effects

CHAPTER 4: Environmental Consequences
(Continued)
4.8 Cumulative Effects
The National Environmental Policy Act and its implementing regulations require an
assessment of the proposed action and other actions that have occurred in the past, are
occurring in the present, or are likely to occur in the future, which together may have
cumulative impacts that go beyond the impacts of the proposed action itself. As defined by
40 C.F.R. § 1508.7:
“Cumulative impact” is the impact on the environment which results from the
incremental impact of the action when added to other past, present, and reasonably
foreseeable future actions regardless of what agency (federal or non-federal) or person
undertakes such other actions. Cumulative impacts can result from individually minor
but collectively significant actions taking place over a period of time.
The purpose of this cumulative effects analysis is to determine if the effects of the actions
considered in this plan, together with other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable
future actions on the North Slope and elsewhere, have the potential to interact or
accumulate over time and space, either through repetition or combined with other effects,
and under what circumstances and to what degree they might accumulate.
4.8.1 Structure of the Cumulative Impacts Analysis
For this plan, the analysis of cumulative impacts follows guidance provided in “Considering
Cumulative Effects Under the National Environmental Policy Act” (CEQ 1997). The plan
will identify and describe actions—past, present, and future—that may impact the
elements of the environment, including people, that may be impacted by the plan’s
decisions. These include not only the actions that may follow from the decisions in this
plan, but also actions undertaken by others within and outside the planning area. The plan
also provides the geographic and temporal scope of the analysis and addresses additive,
synergistic, and countervailing impacts among the cumulative impacts.
4.8.1.1 Class of Actions Whose Effects are to be Analyzed
Both non-oil and gas activities and oil and gas activities are considered in the analysis. The
impacts from these activities are considered in the context of a changing environment,
including climate change. The assumptions and scenarios used by the resource specialists
in the analyses of the cumulative impacts include those identified for the planning area in
section 4.2 (Volume 2), “Introduction and Basic Assumptions for the Environmental
Consequences Assessment.”
Non-Oil and Gas Activities
Non-oil and gas activities include those activities that have occurred in the past, are
presently occurring, or are likely to occur in the future. These include the types of activities
discussed in section 4.2.1.1 (Volume 2), “Activities Not Associated with Oil and Gas
National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska
Final Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement 1
Chapter 4: Environmental Consequences
Cumulative Effects Structure of the Cumulative Impacts Analysis
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Exploration and Development,” that could occur within and outside of the NPR-A, and
other North Slope activities, including resettlement and expansion of Native villages, and
other residential, commercial, and industrial development on the North Slope, and military
(Distant Early Warning-Line) and other government sites.
Oil and Gas Activities
Oil and gas activities include those direct and indirect activities that have occurred in the
past, are presently occurring, or are likely to occur in the future. These include the types of
activities discussed in section 4.2.1.2 (Volume 2) that could occur within the planning area
and on the North Slope. The activities likely to have the greatest effects vary by resource.
For example, oil and gas activities considered in greatest detail in the cumulative impacts
analysis for biological resources and subsistence users are:
• Exploration activities, including seismic activities, off-road travel, and
exploration drilling
• Road construction (ice, peat, and gravel roads)
• Industrial activity (oil field development and production and related
infrastructure)
• Oil spills
• Marine-related activities
• Site reclamation
In contrast, employment and income are important activities to consider when evaluating
the economy. Activities analyzed for each resource are identified in section 4.8.7.
4.8.1.2 Appropriate Cumulative Impact Temporal and Spatial Domain
Temporal Domain
The analysis period covered by the cumulative effects analysis begins in approximately
1900, when first exploration on the North Slope began, and continues through about 2100.
The ending date is based on the assumption that oil and gas fields will be discovered and
developed in the planning area over approximately the remainder of the first half of this
century and that production and abandonment activities could last for approximately 50
more years.
Developments for which no solid proposal has been submitted or which seem unlikely to
occur within the foreseeable future are considered speculative. Speculative developments
are not considered reasonably foreseeable and are not analyzed as part of the cumulative
impacts associated with this IAP/EIS.
Spatial Domain
The spatial domain considered in this cumulative analysis extends across much of the
North Slope. It includes the contiguous State and Native lands to the east of the NPR-A
that have potential cumulative relationships with resources and peoples in the NPR-A. For
example nearby oil and gas infrastructure conceivably could impact air quality within the
NPR-A; Colville River aquatic habitat important for some fish in the NPR-A could be
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Final Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement
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