National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska Draft Integrated Activity Plan

338 Pages·2012·2.13 MB·English

National Petroleum
Reserve-Alaska
DRAFT
Integrated Activity Plan/
Environmental Impact Statement
Volume 3
Chapter 4 (sections 4.7 to 4.12)
Prepared by:
U.S. Department of the Interior
Bureau of Land Management
Anchorage, Alaska
In cooperation with:
North Slope Borough
State of Alaska
U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
March 2012
How the Draft IAP/EIS is Organized
The format of this IAP/EIS follows guidance provided by the Council on Environmental
Quality and the BLM NEPA Handbook H-1790-1 ( USDOI BLM 2008). Below is a list of the
types of information found in each volume of the IAP/EIS.
VOLUME 1
Chapter 1 – Introduction: Summarizes the purpose of and need for this IAP/EIS and
decisions to be made.
Chapter 2 – Alternatives: Describes and compares proposed management alternatives.
Chapter 3 – Affected Environment: Presents existing natural and socioeconomic
resources in the NPR-A and trends, including those associated with climate change.
VOLUME 2
Chapter 4 – Environmental Consequences (sections 4.1 – 4.6): Evaluates impacts of the
alternatives on resources and uses in the NPR-A and the cumulative and other effects
relevant to making a decision among the alternatives.
VOLUME 3
Chapter 4 – Environmental Consequences (continued: sections 4.7 – 4.12).
VOLUME 4
Chapter 5 – Consultation and Coordination: Describes public and government (including
tribal) consultation undertaken for this plan and the development of alternatives and
lists the plan’s preparers.
Appendices
Appendix A: ANILCA Section 810 Analysis of Subsistence Impacts
Appendix B: Federal, State, and Local Permits and/or Approvals for Oil and Gas
Exploration, Development, and Production Activities
Appendix C: NPR-A Climate Change Analysis: An Assessment of Climate Change
Variables in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska
Appendix D: Essential Fish Habitat
Appendix E: Common, Scientific and Iñupiaq Names of Species Listed in the IAP/EIS
Appendix F: BLM Sensitive Species List for Alaska
Appendix G: Information, Models, and the Assumptions Used to Analyze the Effects
of Oil Spills
Glossary and Bibliography
VOLUME 5
Maps
Contents
CHAPTER 4: (Continued) ............................................................................................................ 1
4.7 Cumulative Effects ............................................................................................................. 1
4.7.1 Structure of the Cumulative Impacts Analysis ......................................................... 1
4.7.2 Activities Not Associated with Oil and Gas Exploration and Development
Considered in the Cumulative Effects Analysis ..................................................... 4
4.7.3 Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Activities Considered in the
Cumulative Effects Analysis .................................................................................. 10
4.7.4 Cumulative Oil Spills ................................................................................................. 64
4.7.5 Resource Protection Measures Considered in the Cumulative Effects Analysis .. 66
4.7.6 Other Information Considered in Cumulative Effects Analysis ............................. 68
4.7.7 Cumulative Effects on the Environment .................................................................. 70
4.8 Unavoidable Adverse Effects ......................................................................................... 288
4.8.1 Air Quality ................................................................................................................ 288
4.8.2 Paleontological Resources ........................................................................................ 288
4.8.3 Soil Resources ........................................................................................................... 289
4.8.4 Water Resources ....................................................................................................... 289
4.8.5 Vegetation ................................................................................................................. 289
4.8.6 Wetlands and Floodplains ....................................................................................... 290
4.8.7 Fish ............................................................................................................................ 290
4.8.8 Birds .......................................................................................................................... 290
4.8.9 Terrestrial Mammals ............................................................................................... 291
4.8.10 Marine Mammals ................................................................................................... 291
4.8.11 Special Status Species ........................................................................................... 291
4.8.12 Cultural Resources ................................................................................................. 293
4.8.13 Subsistence ............................................................................................................. 293
4.8.14 Sociocultural Systems ............................................................................................ 294
4.8.15 Environmental Justice ........................................................................................... 294
4.8.16 Recreation Resources ............................................................................................. 295
4.8.17 Wild and Scenic Rivers .......................................................................................... 295
4.8.18 Wilderness Characteristics.................................................................................... 295
4.8.19 Visual Resources .................................................................................................... 295
4.8.20 Economy .................................................................................................................. 295
4.8.21 Public Health .......................................................................................................... 296
4.9 Relationship between the Local Short-term Uses and Maintenance and
Enhancement of Long-term Productivity ............................................................... 296
4.9.1 Air Quality ................................................................................................................ 297
4.9.2 Paleontological Resources ........................................................................................ 297
4.9.3 Soil Resources ........................................................................................................... 297
National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska
DRAFT Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement i
Contents
4.9.4 Water Resources ...................................................................................................... 298
4.9.5 Vegetation ................................................................................................................ 298
4.9.6 Wetlands and Floodplains ....................................................................................... 298
4.9.7 Fish ........................................................................................................................... 299
4.9.8 Birds ......................................................................................................................... 299
4.9.9 Terrestrial Mammals .............................................................................................. 299
4.9.10 Marine Mammals................................................................................................... 300
4.9.11 Special Status Species ........................................................................................... 300
4.9.12 Cultural Resources ................................................................................................ 302
4.9.13 Subsistence ............................................................................................................. 302
4.9.14 Sociocultural Systems ........................................................................................... 302
4.9.15 Environmental Justice .......................................................................................... 303
4.9.16 Recreation Resources............................................................................................. 303
4.9.17 Wild and Scenic Rivers .......................................................................................... 303
4.9.18 Wilderness Characteristics ................................................................................... 303
4.9.19 Visual Resources .................................................................................................... 304
4.9.20 Economy ................................................................................................................. 304
4.9.21 Public Health ......................................................................................................... 304
4.10 Irreversible and Irretrievable Commitment of Resources ........................................ 305
4.10.1 Air Quality ............................................................................................................. 305
4.10.2 Paleontological Resources ..................................................................................... 305
4.10.3 Soil Resources ........................................................................................................ 306
4.10.4 Water Resources .................................................................................................... 306
4.10.5 Vegetation .............................................................................................................. 306
4.10.6 Wetland and Floodplains ...................................................................................... 306
4.10.7 Fish ......................................................................................................................... 307
4.10.8 Birds ....................................................................................................................... 307
4.10.9 Terrestrial Mammals ............................................................................................ 307
4.10.10 Marine Mammals ................................................................................................ 307
4.10.11 Special Status Species ......................................................................................... 307
4.10.12 Cultural Resources .............................................................................................. 308
4.10.13 Subsistence ........................................................................................................... 308
4.10.14 Sociocultural Systems ......................................................................................... 309
4.10.15 Environmental Justice ........................................................................................ 309
4.10.16 Recreation Resources .......................................................................................... 309
4.10.17 Wild and Scenic Rivers ........................................................................................ 309
4.10.18 Wilderness Characteristics ................................................................................. 310
4.10.19 Visual Resources .................................................................................................. 310
4.10.20 Economy ............................................................................................................... 310
4.10.21 Public Health ....................................................................................................... 310
National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska
ii DRAFT Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement
Contents
4.10.22 Oil and Gas Resources ......................................................................................... 311
4.11 Low-probability, Very Large Oil Spill ......................................................................... 311
4.11.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 311
4.11.2 Blowout Assumptions ............................................................................................ 313
4.11.3 Behavior and Fate of a Blowout Oil Spill during Various Seasons .................... 314
4.11.4 Effects of a Low-Probability, Very Large Oil Spill .............................................. 315
4.12 Energy Requirements and Conservation Potential of Various Alternatives and
Mitigation Measures ................................................................................................ 332

Tables
Table 4-31. Physical size of the North Slope villages considered in the cumulative effects
analysis .................................................................................................................................... 4
Table 4-32. Population of North Slope villages within the cumulative effects analysis area ......... 5
Table 4-33. Distant Early Warning-Line and radar sites constructed on the North Slope of
Alaska ...................................................................................................................................... 8
Table 4-34. Oil exploration and development on the North Slope .................................................. 11
Table 4-35. Past oil and gas development on the North Slope ....................................................... 20
Table 4-36. North Slope oil infrastructure (1968-2001) .................................................................. 22
Table 4-37. Future production of conventional oil and gas used in the cumulative impact
analysis, 2012-2100 .............................................................................................................. 43
Table 4-38. Gravel and borrow site footprint assumptions ............................................................. 44
Table 4-39. Industrial disturbed areas on the North Slope, 1968 to 2001 (in acres) .................... 57
Table 4-40. NPR-A cumulative large oil-spill-occurrence estimates resulting from future oil
production, 2012-2100 .......................................................................................................... 65
Table 4-41. Summary of select North Slope concerns/information provided at public
meetings .............................................................................................................................. 221

National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska
DRAFT Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement iii

CHAPTER 4: (Continued)
4.7 Cumulative Effects
The National Environmental Policy Act and its implementing regulations require an
assessment of the proposed action and other actions that have occurred in the past, are
occurring in the present, or are likely to occur in the future, which together may have
cumulative impacts that go beyond the impacts of the proposed action itself. As defined by
40 C.F.R. § 1508.7:
“Cumulative impact” is the impact on the environment which results from the
incremental impact of the action when added to other past, present, and reasonably
foreseeable future actions regardless of what agency (federal or non-federal) or person
undertakes such other actions. Cumulative impacts can result from individually minor
but collectively significant actions taking place over a period of time.
The purpose of this cumulative effects analysis is to determine if the effects of the actions
considered in this plan, together with other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable
future actions on the North Slope and elsewhere, have the potential to interact or
accumulate over time and space, either through repetition or combined with other effects,
and under what circumstances and to what degree they might accumulate.
4.7.1 Structure of the Cumulative Impacts Analysis
For this plan, the analysis of cumulative impacts follows guidance provided in “Considering
Cumulative Effects Under the National Environmental Policy Act” (CEQ 1997). The plan
will identify and describe actions—past, present, and future—that may impact the
elements of the environment, including people, that may be impacted by the plan’s
decisions. These include not only the actions that may follow from the decisions in this
plan, but also actions undertaken by others within and outside the planning area. The plan
also provides the geographic and temporal scope of the analysis and addresses additive,
synergistic, and countervailing impacts among the cumulative impacts.
4.7.1.1 Class of Actions Whose Effects are to be Analyzed
Both non-oil and gas activities and oil and gas activities are considered in the analysis. The
impacts from these activities are considered in the context of a changing environment,
including climate change. The assumptions and scenarios used by the resource specialists
in the analyses of the cumulative impacts include those identified for the planning area in
section 4.2 (Volume 2), “Introduction and Basic Assumptions for the Environmental
Consequences Assessment.”
Non-Oil and Gas Activities
Non-oil and gas activities include those activities that have occurred in the past, are
presently occurring, or are likely to occur in the future. These include the types of activities
discussed in section 4.2.1.1 (Volume 2), “Activities Not Associated with Oil and Gas
National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska
DRAFT Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement 1
Chapter 4: Environmental Consequences
Cumulative Effects
Exploration and Development,” that could occur within and outside of the NPR-A, and
other North Slope activities, including resettlement and expansion of Native villages, and
other residential, commercial, and industrial development on the North Slope, and military
(Distant Early Warning-Line) and other government sites.
Oil and Gas Activities
Oil and gas activities include those direct and indirect activities that have occurred in the
past, are presently occurring, or are likely to occur in the future. These include the types of
activities discussed in section 4.2.1.2 (Volume 2) that could occur within the planning area
and on the North Slope. The activities likely to have the greatest effects vary by resource.
For example, oil and gas activities considered in greatest detail in the cumulative impacts
analysis for biological resources and subsistence users are:
• Exploration activities, including seismic activities, off-road travel, and exploration
drilling
• Road construction (ice, peat, and gravel roads)
• Industrial activity (oil field development and production and related infrastructure)
• Oil spills
• Marine-related activities
• Site reclamation
In contrast, employment and income are important activities to consider when evaluating
the economy. Activities analyzed for each resource are identified in section 4.7.7.
4.7.1.2 Appropriate Cumulative Impact Temporal and Spatial Domain
Temporal Domain
The analysis period covered by the cumulative effects analysis begins in approximately
1900, when first exploration on the North Slope began, and continues through about 2100.
The ending date is based on the assumption that oil and gas fields will be discovered and
developed in the planning area over approximately the remainder of the first half of this
century and that production and abandonment activities could last for approximately 50
more years.
Developments for which no solid proposal has been submitted or which seem unlikely to
occur within the foreseeable future are considered speculative. Speculative developments
are not considered reasonably foreseeable and are not analyzed as part of the cumulative
impacts associated with this IAP/EIS.
Spatial Domain
The spatial domain considered in this cumulative analysis extends across much of the
North Slope. It includes the State and Native lands to the east that have potential
cumulative relationships with resources and peoples in the NPR-A. For example nearby oil
and gas infrastructure conceivably could impact air quality within the NPR-A; Colville
River aquatic habitat important for some fish in the NPR-A could be affected by activities
in the drainages of rivers that flow into the Colville from the east; some members of the
National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska
2 DRAFT Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement
Chapter 4: Environmental Consequences
Cumulative Effects
Teshekpuk and Western Arctic caribou herds cross to the east side of the Colville River and
members of Central Arctic caribou herd sometimes enter a short distance into the NPR-A
near Nuiqsut; and subsistence hunters and trappers sometimes use lands east of the
Colville River, in some cases to approximately the Dalton Highway area. On the west, the
spatial domain extends to encompass all lands north of the Brooks Range. The NPR-A’s
western boundary follows a line of longitude. Animals, including the Western Arctic Herd,
pass freely across boundary; several rivers, including the Utukok, pass across the
boundary; and subsistence users from Wainwright utilize substantial parts of the North
Slope west of the NPR-A. Activities in waters offshore from the NPR-A may also impact
species that use the NPR-A, particularly its bays and lagoons. Finally, this plan also
considers cumulative effects to resources that could occur farther afield, including outside
of Alaska and its adjacent marine waters, primarily effects to migratory birds and
mammals.
4.7.1.3 Magnitude of Effects and Whether Those Effects are Accumulating
The potential extent of the total cumulative effects (e.g., number of animals and habitat
affected, jobs and revenues created or lost), and how long the effects might last (e.g.,
population recovery time, duration of income flows) are estimated to determine the
magnitude of effects that could accumulate for each resource. Where possible, the
assessment of effects on a resource is based on quantitative analysis (e.g., number of miles
of gravel roads constructed; number of animals killed). However, many effects are difficult
to quantify (e.g., animal behaviors; human perceptions) and a qualitative assessment of
effects is made.
As suggested by the CEQ (1997) handbook, Considering Cumulative Effects Under the
National Environmental Policy Act, this IAP/EIS considers the following basic types of
cumulative effects that might occur:
• "Additive" (loss of sensitive resources from more than one incident),
• "Countervailing" (an effect of an action is at least partially offset by the effect of
another action; e.g., one action could promote a certain type of habitat while another
could reduce it), and
• "Synergistic" (total effect is greater than the sum of the effects taken
independently).
Additive effects on specific resources often are difficult to detect and do not necessarily add
up in the strict sense of one plus one equals two. It is much more likely that an additive
effect would be greater than one but less than two. A synergistic effect, in theory, is a total
effect that is greater than the sum of the additive effects on a resource. To arrive at a
synergistic effect in this example (continuing with the numeric analogy), the total
cumulative effect would need to end up greater than two. In the highly variable Arctic
environment, where natural variations in population levels can exceed the impacts of
human activity, such an effect would need to be much greater than the hypothetical two to
be either measurable or noteworthy.
In the analyses that follows, effects should be considered to be additive in nature, unless
otherwise noted. While synergistic impacts have been demonstrated in the laboratory (for
certain types of chemical reactions, for example), there is almost no evidence of such
National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska
DRAFT Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement 3
Chapter 4: Environmental Consequences
Cumulative Effects
impacts occurring when dealing with biological resources in the Arctic environment. Where
synergistic impacts are not specifically accounted for in the analysis section, it is because
there are neither studies nor information supporting the identification of such impacts.
Resource analysts have striven to keep the cumulative analysis useful, manageable, and
concentrated on meaningful potential effects. The cumulative analysis considers in greatest
detail activities that are more certain to happen and that are geographically in or near the
NPR-A.
4.7.2 Activities Not Associated with Oil and Gas Exploration and
Development Considered in the Cumulative Effects Analysis
This section describes past, present, and reasonably foreseeable non-oil and gas activities
that may contribute to cumulative effects. Non-oil and gas actions include continued human
activities such as sport and subsistence hunting and fishing, tourism, and recreational
activities. Other non-oil and gas activities that could occur on the North Slope include
growth and development associated with villages and military sites.
4.7.2.1 North Slope Development
There are six North Slope villages within the geographic scope being considered for this
cumulative effects analysis: Point Lay, Wainwright, Atqasuk, Barrow, Nuiqsut, and
Anaktuvuk Pass. While a number of these locations were occupied at various times
throughout the human history on the North Slope, much of the occupation prior to 1900
consisted of seasonal dwellings. These villages have been established or reestablished since
1900, and the establishment and subsequent growth represent cumulative impact to the
North Slope environment. Villages consist of dwellings and other buildings, sewage and
water systems, gravel roads, gravel airstrips/airports, and other structures. Their
establishment, current area, and population statistics are described in Table 4-31 and
Table 4-321.
Table 4-31. Physical size of the North Slope villages considered in the
cumulative effects analysis
Village City limits (acres) Tracts (acres)
Anaktuvuk Pass 3,302 373
Nuiqsut 5,760 649
Atqasuk 27,353 328
Barrow 13,866 3,028
Wainwright 9,222 1,022
Point Lay Not Incorporated 1,576
Total 60,123 7,128

1 Most information in this section is available on the State of Alaska Labor and Workforce Development
Online website http://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/cen/dparea.cfm and from the website of the North Slope
Borough at http://www.north-slope.org/. Both websites were accessed on August 30, 2011.
National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska
4 DRAFT Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement