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National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska Draft Integrated Activity Plan PDF

338 Pages·2012·2.13 MB·English
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National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska DRAFT Integrated Activity Plan/ Environmental Impact Statement Volume 3 Chapter 4 (sections 4.7 to 4.12) Prepared by: U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management Anchorage, Alaska In cooperation with: North Slope Borough State of Alaska U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service March 2012 How the Draft IAP/EIS is Organized The format of this IAP/EIS follows guidance provided by the Council on Environmental Quality and the BLM NEPA Handbook H-1790-1 ( USDOI BLM 2008). Below is a list of the types of information found in each volume of the IAP/EIS. VOLUME 1 Chapter 1 – Introduction: Summarizes the purpose of and need for this IAP/EIS and decisions to be made. Chapter 2 – Alternatives: Describes and compares proposed management alternatives. Chapter 3 – Affected Environment: Presents existing natural and socioeconomic resources in the NPR-A and trends, including those associated with climate change. VOLUME 2 Chapter 4 – Environmental Consequences (sections 4.1 – 4.6): Evaluates impacts of the alternatives on resources and uses in the NPR-A and the cumulative and other effects relevant to making a decision among the alternatives. VOLUME 3 Chapter 4 – Environmental Consequences (continued: sections 4.7 – 4.12). VOLUME 4 Chapter 5 – Consultation and Coordination: Describes public and government (including tribal) consultation undertaken for this plan and the development of alternatives and lists the plan’s preparers. Appendices Appendix A: ANILCA Section 810 Analysis of Subsistence Impacts Appendix B: Federal, State, and Local Permits and/or Approvals for Oil and Gas Exploration, Development, and Production Activities Appendix C: NPR-A Climate Change Analysis: An Assessment of Climate Change Variables in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska Appendix D: Essential Fish Habitat Appendix E: Common, Scientific and Iñupiaq Names of Species Listed in the IAP/EIS Appendix F: BLM Sensitive Species List for Alaska Appendix G: Information, Models, and the Assumptions Used to Analyze the Effects of Oil Spills Glossary and Bibliography VOLUME 5 Maps Contents CHAPTER 4: (Continued) ............................................................................................................ 1 4.7 Cumulative Effects ............................................................................................................. 1 4.7.1 Structure of the Cumulative Impacts Analysis ......................................................... 1 4.7.2 Activities Not Associated with Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Considered in the Cumulative Effects Analysis ..................................................... 4 4.7.3 Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Activities Considered in the Cumulative Effects Analysis .................................................................................. 10 4.7.4 Cumulative Oil Spills ................................................................................................. 64 4.7.5 Resource Protection Measures Considered in the Cumulative Effects Analysis .. 66 4.7.6 Other Information Considered in Cumulative Effects Analysis ............................. 68 4.7.7 Cumulative Effects on the Environment .................................................................. 70 4.8 Unavoidable Adverse Effects ......................................................................................... 288 4.8.1 Air Quality ................................................................................................................ 288 4.8.2 Paleontological Resources ........................................................................................ 288 4.8.3 Soil Resources ........................................................................................................... 289 4.8.4 Water Resources ....................................................................................................... 289 4.8.5 Vegetation ................................................................................................................. 289 4.8.6 Wetlands and Floodplains ....................................................................................... 290 4.8.7 Fish ............................................................................................................................ 290 4.8.8 Birds .......................................................................................................................... 290 4.8.9 Terrestrial Mammals ............................................................................................... 291 4.8.10 Marine Mammals ................................................................................................... 291 4.8.11 Special Status Species ........................................................................................... 291 4.8.12 Cultural Resources ................................................................................................. 293 4.8.13 Subsistence ............................................................................................................. 293 4.8.14 Sociocultural Systems ............................................................................................ 294 4.8.15 Environmental Justice ........................................................................................... 294 4.8.16 Recreation Resources ............................................................................................. 295 4.8.17 Wild and Scenic Rivers .......................................................................................... 295 4.8.18 Wilderness Characteristics.................................................................................... 295 4.8.19 Visual Resources .................................................................................................... 295 4.8.20 Economy .................................................................................................................. 295 4.8.21 Public Health .......................................................................................................... 296 4.9 Relationship between the Local Short-term Uses and Maintenance and Enhancement of Long-term Productivity ............................................................... 296 4.9.1 Air Quality ................................................................................................................ 297 4.9.2 Paleontological Resources ........................................................................................ 297 4.9.3 Soil Resources ........................................................................................................... 297 National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska DRAFT Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement i Contents 4.9.4 Water Resources ...................................................................................................... 298 4.9.5 Vegetation ................................................................................................................ 298 4.9.6 Wetlands and Floodplains ....................................................................................... 298 4.9.7 Fish ........................................................................................................................... 299 4.9.8 Birds ......................................................................................................................... 299 4.9.9 Terrestrial Mammals .............................................................................................. 299 4.9.10 Marine Mammals................................................................................................... 300 4.9.11 Special Status Species ........................................................................................... 300 4.9.12 Cultural Resources ................................................................................................ 302 4.9.13 Subsistence ............................................................................................................. 302 4.9.14 Sociocultural Systems ........................................................................................... 302 4.9.15 Environmental Justice .......................................................................................... 303 4.9.16 Recreation Resources............................................................................................. 303 4.9.17 Wild and Scenic Rivers .......................................................................................... 303 4.9.18 Wilderness Characteristics ................................................................................... 303 4.9.19 Visual Resources .................................................................................................... 304 4.9.20 Economy ................................................................................................................. 304 4.9.21 Public Health ......................................................................................................... 304 4.10 Irreversible and Irretrievable Commitment of Resources ........................................ 305 4.10.1 Air Quality ............................................................................................................. 305 4.10.2 Paleontological Resources ..................................................................................... 305 4.10.3 Soil Resources ........................................................................................................ 306 4.10.4 Water Resources .................................................................................................... 306 4.10.5 Vegetation .............................................................................................................. 306 4.10.6 Wetland and Floodplains ...................................................................................... 306 4.10.7 Fish ......................................................................................................................... 307 4.10.8 Birds ....................................................................................................................... 307 4.10.9 Terrestrial Mammals ............................................................................................ 307 4.10.10 Marine Mammals ................................................................................................ 307 4.10.11 Special Status Species ......................................................................................... 307 4.10.12 Cultural Resources .............................................................................................. 308 4.10.13 Subsistence ........................................................................................................... 308 4.10.14 Sociocultural Systems ......................................................................................... 309 4.10.15 Environmental Justice ........................................................................................ 309 4.10.16 Recreation Resources .......................................................................................... 309 4.10.17 Wild and Scenic Rivers ........................................................................................ 309 4.10.18 Wilderness Characteristics ................................................................................. 310 4.10.19 Visual Resources .................................................................................................. 310 4.10.20 Economy ............................................................................................................... 310 4.10.21 Public Health ....................................................................................................... 310 National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska ii DRAFT Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement Contents 4.10.22 Oil and Gas Resources ......................................................................................... 311 4.11 Low-probability, Very Large Oil Spill ......................................................................... 311 4.11.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 311 4.11.2 Blowout Assumptions ............................................................................................ 313 4.11.3 Behavior and Fate of a Blowout Oil Spill during Various Seasons .................... 314 4.11.4 Effects of a Low-Probability, Very Large Oil Spill .............................................. 315 4.12 Energy Requirements and Conservation Potential of Various Alternatives and Mitigation Measures ................................................................................................ 332 Tables Table 4-31. Physical size of the North Slope villages considered in the cumulative effects analysis .................................................................................................................................... 4 Table 4-32. Population of North Slope villages within the cumulative effects analysis area ......... 5 Table 4-33. Distant Early Warning-Line and radar sites constructed on the North Slope of Alaska ...................................................................................................................................... 8 Table 4-34. Oil exploration and development on the North Slope .................................................. 11 Table 4-35. Past oil and gas development on the North Slope ....................................................... 20 Table 4-36. North Slope oil infrastructure (1968-2001) .................................................................. 22 Table 4-37. Future production of conventional oil and gas used in the cumulative impact analysis, 2012-2100 .............................................................................................................. 43 Table 4-38. Gravel and borrow site footprint assumptions ............................................................. 44 Table 4-39. Industrial disturbed areas on the North Slope, 1968 to 2001 (in acres) .................... 57 Table 4-40. NPR-A cumulative large oil-spill-occurrence estimates resulting from future oil production, 2012-2100 .......................................................................................................... 65 Table 4-41. Summary of select North Slope concerns/information provided at public meetings .............................................................................................................................. 221 National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska DRAFT Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement iii CHAPTER 4: (Continued) 4.7 Cumulative Effects The National Environmental Policy Act and its implementing regulations require an assessment of the proposed action and other actions that have occurred in the past, are occurring in the present, or are likely to occur in the future, which together may have cumulative impacts that go beyond the impacts of the proposed action itself. As defined by 40 C.F.R. § 1508.7: “Cumulative impact” is the impact on the environment which results from the incremental impact of the action when added to other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future actions regardless of what agency (federal or non-federal) or person undertakes such other actions. Cumulative impacts can result from individually minor but collectively significant actions taking place over a period of time. The purpose of this cumulative effects analysis is to determine if the effects of the actions considered in this plan, together with other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future actions on the North Slope and elsewhere, have the potential to interact or accumulate over time and space, either through repetition or combined with other effects, and under what circumstances and to what degree they might accumulate. 4.7.1 Structure of the Cumulative Impacts Analysis For this plan, the analysis of cumulative impacts follows guidance provided in “Considering Cumulative Effects Under the National Environmental Policy Act” (CEQ 1997). The plan will identify and describe actions—past, present, and future—that may impact the elements of the environment, including people, that may be impacted by the plan’s decisions. These include not only the actions that may follow from the decisions in this plan, but also actions undertaken by others within and outside the planning area. The plan also provides the geographic and temporal scope of the analysis and addresses additive, synergistic, and countervailing impacts among the cumulative impacts. 4.7.1.1 Class of Actions Whose Effects are to be Analyzed Both non-oil and gas activities and oil and gas activities are considered in the analysis. The impacts from these activities are considered in the context of a changing environment, including climate change. The assumptions and scenarios used by the resource specialists in the analyses of the cumulative impacts include those identified for the planning area in section 4.2 (Volume 2), “Introduction and Basic Assumptions for the Environmental Consequences Assessment.” Non-Oil and Gas Activities Non-oil and gas activities include those activities that have occurred in the past, are presently occurring, or are likely to occur in the future. These include the types of activities discussed in section 4.2.1.1 (Volume 2), “Activities Not Associated with Oil and Gas National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska DRAFT Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement 1 Chapter 4: Environmental Consequences Cumulative Effects Exploration and Development,” that could occur within and outside of the NPR-A, and other North Slope activities, including resettlement and expansion of Native villages, and other residential, commercial, and industrial development on the North Slope, and military (Distant Early Warning-Line) and other government sites. Oil and Gas Activities Oil and gas activities include those direct and indirect activities that have occurred in the past, are presently occurring, or are likely to occur in the future. These include the types of activities discussed in section 4.2.1.2 (Volume 2) that could occur within the planning area and on the North Slope. The activities likely to have the greatest effects vary by resource. For example, oil and gas activities considered in greatest detail in the cumulative impacts analysis for biological resources and subsistence users are: • Exploration activities, including seismic activities, off-road travel, and exploration drilling • Road construction (ice, peat, and gravel roads) • Industrial activity (oil field development and production and related infrastructure) • Oil spills • Marine-related activities • Site reclamation In contrast, employment and income are important activities to consider when evaluating the economy. Activities analyzed for each resource are identified in section 4.7.7. 4.7.1.2 Appropriate Cumulative Impact Temporal and Spatial Domain Temporal Domain The analysis period covered by the cumulative effects analysis begins in approximately 1900, when first exploration on the North Slope began, and continues through about 2100. The ending date is based on the assumption that oil and gas fields will be discovered and developed in the planning area over approximately the remainder of the first half of this century and that production and abandonment activities could last for approximately 50 more years. Developments for which no solid proposal has been submitted or which seem unlikely to occur within the foreseeable future are considered speculative. Speculative developments are not considered reasonably foreseeable and are not analyzed as part of the cumulative impacts associated with this IAP/EIS. Spatial Domain The spatial domain considered in this cumulative analysis extends across much of the North Slope. It includes the State and Native lands to the east that have potential cumulative relationships with resources and peoples in the NPR-A. For example nearby oil and gas infrastructure conceivably could impact air quality within the NPR-A; Colville River aquatic habitat important for some fish in the NPR-A could be affected by activities in the drainages of rivers that flow into the Colville from the east; some members of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska 2 DRAFT Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement Chapter 4: Environmental Consequences Cumulative Effects Teshekpuk and Western Arctic caribou herds cross to the east side of the Colville River and members of Central Arctic caribou herd sometimes enter a short distance into the NPR-A near Nuiqsut; and subsistence hunters and trappers sometimes use lands east of the Colville River, in some cases to approximately the Dalton Highway area. On the west, the spatial domain extends to encompass all lands north of the Brooks Range. The NPR-A’s western boundary follows a line of longitude. Animals, including the Western Arctic Herd, pass freely across boundary; several rivers, including the Utukok, pass across the boundary; and subsistence users from Wainwright utilize substantial parts of the North Slope west of the NPR-A. Activities in waters offshore from the NPR-A may also impact species that use the NPR-A, particularly its bays and lagoons. Finally, this plan also considers cumulative effects to resources that could occur farther afield, including outside of Alaska and its adjacent marine waters, primarily effects to migratory birds and mammals. 4.7.1.3 Magnitude of Effects and Whether Those Effects are Accumulating The potential extent of the total cumulative effects (e.g., number of animals and habitat affected, jobs and revenues created or lost), and how long the effects might last (e.g., population recovery time, duration of income flows) are estimated to determine the magnitude of effects that could accumulate for each resource. Where possible, the assessment of effects on a resource is based on quantitative analysis (e.g., number of miles of gravel roads constructed; number of animals killed). However, many effects are difficult to quantify (e.g., animal behaviors; human perceptions) and a qualitative assessment of effects is made. As suggested by the CEQ (1997) handbook, Considering Cumulative Effects Under the National Environmental Policy Act, this IAP/EIS considers the following basic types of cumulative effects that might occur: • "Additive" (loss of sensitive resources from more than one incident), • "Countervailing" (an effect of an action is at least partially offset by the effect of another action; e.g., one action could promote a certain type of habitat while another could reduce it), and • "Synergistic" (total effect is greater than the sum of the effects taken independently). Additive effects on specific resources often are difficult to detect and do not necessarily add up in the strict sense of one plus one equals two. It is much more likely that an additive effect would be greater than one but less than two. A synergistic effect, in theory, is a total effect that is greater than the sum of the additive effects on a resource. To arrive at a synergistic effect in this example (continuing with the numeric analogy), the total cumulative effect would need to end up greater than two. In the highly variable Arctic environment, where natural variations in population levels can exceed the impacts of human activity, such an effect would need to be much greater than the hypothetical two to be either measurable or noteworthy. In the analyses that follows, effects should be considered to be additive in nature, unless otherwise noted. While synergistic impacts have been demonstrated in the laboratory (for certain types of chemical reactions, for example), there is almost no evidence of such National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska DRAFT Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement 3 Chapter 4: Environmental Consequences Cumulative Effects impacts occurring when dealing with biological resources in the Arctic environment. Where synergistic impacts are not specifically accounted for in the analysis section, it is because there are neither studies nor information supporting the identification of such impacts. Resource analysts have striven to keep the cumulative analysis useful, manageable, and concentrated on meaningful potential effects. The cumulative analysis considers in greatest detail activities that are more certain to happen and that are geographically in or near the NPR-A. 4.7.2 Activities Not Associated with Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Considered in the Cumulative Effects Analysis This section describes past, present, and reasonably foreseeable non-oil and gas activities that may contribute to cumulative effects. Non-oil and gas actions include continued human activities such as sport and subsistence hunting and fishing, tourism, and recreational activities. Other non-oil and gas activities that could occur on the North Slope include growth and development associated with villages and military sites. 4.7.2.1 North Slope Development There are six North Slope villages within the geographic scope being considered for this cumulative effects analysis: Point Lay, Wainwright, Atqasuk, Barrow, Nuiqsut, and Anaktuvuk Pass. While a number of these locations were occupied at various times throughout the human history on the North Slope, much of the occupation prior to 1900 consisted of seasonal dwellings. These villages have been established or reestablished since 1900, and the establishment and subsequent growth represent cumulative impact to the North Slope environment. Villages consist of dwellings and other buildings, sewage and water systems, gravel roads, gravel airstrips/airports, and other structures. Their establishment, current area, and population statistics are described in Table 4-31 and Table 4-321. Table 4-31. Physical size of the North Slope villages considered in the cumulative effects analysis Village City limits (acres) Tracts (acres) Anaktuvuk Pass 3,302 373 Nuiqsut 5,760 649 Atqasuk 27,353 328 Barrow 13,866 3,028 Wainwright 9,222 1,022 Point Lay Not Incorporated 1,576 Total 60,123 7,128 1 Most information in this section is available on the State of Alaska Labor and Workforce Development Online website http://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/cen/dparea.cfm and from the website of the North Slope Borough at http://www.north-slope.org/. Both websites were accessed on August 30, 2011. National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska 4 DRAFT Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement

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Apr 10, 2012 U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. U.S. Fish Appendix F: BLM Sensitive Species List for Alaska. Appendix Point Lonely. POW-1
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