National Academy of Sciences. An Assessment of the Prospects for Inertial Fusion Energy

238 Pages·2016·5.45 MB·English

An Assessment of the Prospects
for Inertial Fusion Energy
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An Assessment of the Prospects for Inertial Fusion Energy

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14 Committee on the Prospects for Inertial Confinement Fusion Energy Systems
15 Board on Physics and Astronomy
16 Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
17 Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
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24 THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
An Assessment of the Prospects for Inertial Fusion Energy
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the
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National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of
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Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the
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committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for
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appropriate balance.
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Support for this project was provided by Contract 10NA001274 between the National Academy of
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findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do
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not necessarily reflect the views of the agencies that provided support for the project.
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
An Assessment of the Prospects for Inertial Fusion Energy
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62 The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished
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73 recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National
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83 The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to
84 associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering
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90 vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
An Assessment of the Prospects for Inertial Fusion Energy

Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
96 COMMITTEE ON THE PROSPECTS FOR INERTIAL CONFINEMENT FUSION
97 ENERGY SYSTEMS
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100 RONALD C. DAVIDSON, Princeton University, Co-Chair
101 GERALD L. KULCINSKI, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Co-Chair
102 CHARLES BAKER, University of California, San Diego (retired)
103 ROGER BANGERTER, E. O. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (retired)
104 RICCARDO BETTI, University of Rochester
105 JAN BEYEA, Consulting in the Public Interest
106 ROBERT L. BYER, Stanford University
107 FRANKLIN CHANG-DIAZ, Ad Astra Rocket Company
108 STEVEN C. COWLEY, United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority
109 RICHARD L. GARWIN, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center
110 DAVID A. HAMMER, Cornell University
111 JOSEPH S. HEZIR, EOP Group, Inc.
112 KATHRYN McCARTHY, Idaho National Laboratory
113 LAWRENCE T. PAPAY, PQR, LLC
114 KEN SCHULTZ, General Atomics [Retired]
115 ANDREW M. SESSLER, E. O. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
116 JOHN SHEFFIELD, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville
117 THOMAS A. TOMBRELLO, JR., California Institute of Technology
118 DENNIS G. WHYTE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
119 JONATHAN S. WURTELE, University of California, Berkeley
120 ROSA YANG, Electric Power Research Institute, Inc.
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122 MALCOLM McGEOCH, Consultant, PLEX, LLC
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125 Staff
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127 DAVID LANG, Program Officer, Board on Physics and Astronomy, Study Director
128 GREG EYRING, Program Officer, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
129 TERI THOROWGOOD, Administrative Coordinator, Board on Physics and Astronomy
130 JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
131 ERIN BOYD, Christine Mirzayan Science & Technology Policy Graduate Fellow (January-April, 2011)
132 SARAH NELSON-WILK, Christine Mirzayan Science & Technology Policy Graduate Fellow
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137 DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director, Board on Physics and Astronomy
138 JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
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BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY
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PHILIP H. BUCKSBAUM, Stanford University, Chair
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DEBRA M. ELMEGREEN, Vassar College, Vice Chair
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RICCARDO BETTI, University of Rochester
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ADAM S. BURROWS, Princeton University
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TODD DITMIRE, University of Texas
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NATHANIEL J. FISCH, Princeton University
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PAUL FLEURY, Yale University
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S. JAMES GATES, University of Maryland
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LAURA H. GREENE, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
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MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University
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MARK B. KETCHEN, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center
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MONICA OLVERA de la CRUZ, Northwestern University
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PAUL SCHECHTER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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BORIS SHRAIMAN, Kavli Institute of Theoretical Physics
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MICHAEL S. TURNER, University of Chicago
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ELLEN D. WILLIAMS, BP International
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MICHAEL WITHERELL, University of California, Santa Barbara
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JAMES LANCASTER, Director
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DONALD C. SHAPERO, Senior Scholar
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DAVID LANG, Program Officer
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CARYN JOY KNUTSEN, Associate Program Officer
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TERI THOROWGOOD, Administrative Coordinator
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BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS
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173 ANDREW BROWN, JR., Delphi Corporation, Chair
174 WILLIAM BANHOLZER, The Dow Chemical Company
175 MARILYN BROWN, Georgia Institute of Technology
176 WILLIAM CAVANAUGH, Progress Energy (retired), Raleigh, North Carolina
177 PAUL A. DECOTIS, Long Island Power Authority
178 CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES, Texas A&M University, College Station
179 SHERRI GOODMAN, CNA, Alexandria, Virginia
180 NARAIN HINGORANI, Consultant, San Mateo, California
181 ROBERT J. HUGGETT, College of William and Mary (retired), Seaford, Virginia
182 DEBBIE A. NIEMEIER, University of California at Davis
183 DANIEL NOCERA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
184 MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Princeton University
185 DAN REICHER, Stanford University
186 BERNARD ROBERTSON, DaimlerChrysler Corporation (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
187 GARY ROGERS, FEV, Inc., Auburn Hills, Michigan
188 ALISON SILVERSTEIN, Consultant, Pflugerville, Texas
189 MARK THIEMENS, University of California at San Diego
190 RICHARD WHITE, Oppenheimer & Company, New York
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192 JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Senior Board/Program Director
193 DANA CAINES, Financial Associate
194 DAVID COOKE, Research Associate
195 ALAN CRANE, Senior Scientist
196 JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer/Associate Director
197 LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator
ALICE WILLIAMS, Senior Project Assistant
JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
An Assessment of the Prospects for Inertial Fusion Energy

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Preface
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Recent scientific and technological progress in inertial confinement fusion (ICF), together with
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the campaign for achieving the important milestone of ignition on the National Ignition Facility
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(NIF), motivated the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of the Under Secretary for Science
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to request that the National Research Council (NRC) undertake a study to assess the prospects
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for inertial fusion energy (IFE) and provide advice on the preparation of a research and
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development (R&D) roadmap leading to an IFE demonstration plant. The statement of task for
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the full NRC study is given below.
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The Committee will prepare a report that will:
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• Assess the prospects for generating power using inertial confinement fusion;
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• Identify scientific and engineering challenges, cost targets, and R&D objectives
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associated with developing an IFE demonstration plant; and
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• Advise the U.S. Department of Energy on its development of an R&D roadmap
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aimed at creating a conceptual design for an inertial fusion energy demonstration
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plant.
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In response to this request, the National Research Council established the Committee on the
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Prospects for Inertial Confinement Fusion Energy Systems. As part of the study, the sponsor also
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requested that the NRC provide an interim report to assist it in formulating its budget request for
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future budget cycles (see Appendix B). This interim report had a limited scope and was released
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in March 2012.1
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The committee’s final report represents the consensus of the committee after six meetings (see
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Appendix C for the meeting agendas). The first four meetings were concerned mainly with
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information gathering through presentations, while the final two meetings focused on carrying
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out a detailed analysis of the many important topics needed to complete the committee’s
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assessment.
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This report describes and assesses the current status of inertial fusion energy research in the
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United States, identifies the scientific and engineering challenges associated with developing
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inertial confinement fusion as an energy source, compares the various technical approaches, and,
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finally, provides guidance on an R&D roadmap at the conceptual level for a national program
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aimed at the design and construction of an inertial fusion energy demonstration plant, including
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approximate estimates, where possible, of the funding required at each stage. At the outset of the
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study, the committee decided that the fusion-fission hybrid concept was outside the scope of the
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1 National Research Council, Interim Report—Status of the Study "An Assessment of the Prospects for
Inertial Fusion Energy,” The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., (2012). Available at
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13371.
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.